Last year we predicted 18 drivers to within three spots of their actual finishing position at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This year, we were in that same ballpark with 17 almost-correct predictions.
We were not quite as accurate at Las Vegas in 2018 with nine drivers within three. It’s not that we missed by a wide margin; 20 of the drivers landed within five spots of our prediction. It is somewhat difficult to know how this year is going to play out. The new rules package is not inverting the competition as we expected, but it is too soon to tell what the trends will be.
Couple that with the fact Las Vegas Motor Speedway is still a relatively new track that has undergone several major changes in its history and once the favorites are determined, it can be challenging to handicap the drivers 10th through 25th.
1. Joey Logano
Logano is due to win this week. He led late at Atlanta before a tire came apart and has four top-fives at Vegas in his last six races.
2. Kyle Larson
Until he was caught speeding on pot road last week in Atlanta, Larson seemed to have the best car. At Vegas, he’s finished second or third in the last three races.
3. Brad Keselowski
This track has been extremely kind to Keselowski. He has the longest active streak of top-10s (7) and won three of the last six races at Las Vegas.
4. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex just keep adding to his record on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks with another top-five (a second) in the QuikTrip 500.
5. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske has been uniformly strong at Vegas. That is going to pay dividends for the newest member of their team in the form of a solid top-10.
6. Kevin Harvick
Harvick won this race last year as part of his pattern of early season dominance. He has also finished outside the top 35 in two of the last three Vegas races.
7. Kyle Busch
Vegas has not always been kind to Busch, but he heads back to his home town this week with a new contract signed and all the good will that goes along with that.
8. Erik Jones
‘That Jones Boy’ has scored eight top-10s and an 11th in the last 11 races on this track type. He would have added another strong finish last fall if Harvick had not crashed in front of him.
9. Aric Almirola
He has not scored a top-five on this track type in the past two years, but Almirola enters the weekend with a current top-10 streak of five consecutive on “cookie-cutter” tracks.
10. Clint Bowyer
Last week’s fifth-place finish in the QuikTrip 500 was encouraging, but it is only the second time in the last eight races that Bowyer finished in the top 10.
[[ad:athena]]
11. Chase Elliott
Perhaps we were too quick to make Elliott a favorite last week. Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet still seem to have some ground to make up on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways.
12. Denny Hamlin
The Daytona 500 win has virtually locked Hamlin into the playoffs, but he still has some work to do in order to be a consistently good value on unrestricted, intermediate speedways.
13. Kurt Busch
Last year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Busch failed to crack the top five on a “cookie-cutter” track a single time. His third-place finish with Chip Ganassi Racing at Atlanta is encouraging.
14. Alex Bowman
He doesn’t always make a lot of noise, but Bowman is around at the end of the “cookie-cutter” races with a current streak of three top-15s. His last Vegas attempt ended in a 19th.
15. Paul Menard
As soon as Menard eliminates his mistakes, he should become a solid value on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. Nine of his last 11 attempts on them ended in results of sixth through 17th.
16. Ryan Newman
Newman is on the verge of breaking out in the No. 6, but the team needs to gain confidence in order to eliminate any small mistakes.
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse battled hard last week to stay in contention for the Free Pass with time running off the clock. That attitude will serve him well as the season continues.
18. Chris Buescher
A top-10 at Atlanta was incredible. While that is his only such finish on this course type in the past two years, it is notable that he has been 23rd or better in his last six similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track attempts.
19. Jimmie Johnson
It is going to take a little while before Johnson becomes front-of-mind for fantasy owners. Watch for the first signs of improvement on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, however.
20. Daniel Suarez
Suarez performed as well in this car as the former driver Kurt Busch did in 2018. Expect the No. 41 to continue with results on the cusp of 10th for the time being.
21. Austin Dillon
Dillon finished the 2018 season with three results of 10th or 11th. He was not quite as strong at Atlanta, however, and finished outside the top 20.
22. Daniel Hemric
If not for a problem late in the QuikTrip 500, Hemric might well have scored a top-10 in his second attempt of his rookie season.
23. William Byron
While no fantasy owner is likely to build a roster around Byron, he is improving on this track type with a 16th at Texas last fall and a 17th at Atlanta last week.
24. Matt DiBenedetto
If the No. 95 team can continue with their gradual improvement, it won’t be too long before they regularly contend in the front half of the pack.
25. David Ragan
Ragan could be one of this week’s best dark horses in his price range. He finished 16th last week at Atlanta and was 23rd in this race last year. Watch him closely in practice.
26. Bubba Wallace
Wallace has been a surprisingly good value on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in the past with an eighth at Texas last spring and a 16th in the 2018 Coke 600.
27. Michael McDowell
We expected more from McDowell last week. His last place finish of 37th came after experiencing trouble, but one still has to question his ability to score a top-25.
28. Ty Dillon
Dillon’s last three starts on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks have all fallen in a narrow range of 22nd to 25th and that includes his most recent trip to Vegas.
29. Ross Chastain
Chastain gets recognition for the seat time he is putting in each and every week. That extra experience is often good for a few positions on the track.
30. Landon Cassill
This is a team that is typically running at the end of races, but their last two efforts on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks ended in a 35th at Texas and 34th at Atlanta.
31. Corey LaJoie
LaJoie is an opportunist on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. When there is attrition, he often finds a way to move up the rankings by protecting his equipment.
32. Parker Kligerman
If Kligerman fits the right niche on your roster, he can be expected to finish about 30th. If he qualifies at the very back of the pack, that could be good for a few place-differential points.
33. Matt Tifft
Tifft scored his first top-30 last week in Atlanta with a 28th in the QuikTrip 500. If he continues to improve, he could slowly become a utilitarian pick before the end of the year.
34. Reed Sorenson
Sorenson made six starts on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks last year with a best finish of 27th at Kansas in the spring and only one effort worse than 33rd.
35. BJ McLeod
The last time NASCAR came to Vegas, McLeod stayed out of trouble and finished 28th. That race had a lot of attrition, however, and one cannot count on the same thing happening this week.
36. Ryan Preece
Bad luck seems to follow rookies around and one never knows when it will strike. That makes Preece a questionable value until he proves capable of earning top-20s.
37. Cody Ware
With a few drivers experiencing trouble early last week at Atlanta, Ware scored a 33rd-place finish. He could move up some via attrition again this week, but is unlikely to pass many drivers with raw speed.
Best Average Predictions | ||
Driver | Average | Within 3 |
|
|
|
2.0 | 1 | |
2.5 | 1 | |
2.5 | 1 | |
3.0 | 2 | |
3.0 | 1 | |
3.5 | 1 | |
4.5 | 1 | |
5.0 | 1 | |
5.5 | 1 | |
5.5 | 1 | |
5.5 | 0 |
