This week’s race: Citizen Soldier 400
Traditional Name: Delaware 400
Other Notable Names: AAA 400, MBNA 400, Peak Antifreeze 500, CRC Chemicals 500
Rhythm tracks are prone to streaks. Wild card tracks are unpredictable.
Therein lays the paradox that is Dover International Speedway. If a driver can get close enough to the front of the pack, he might be able to stay out of trouble and log several top-10s in a row. One mistake on a restart—like Jimmie Johnson missing a shift this spring in the AAA 400 Drive for Autism—can ruin the day of half the field.
When the No. 48 failed to launch with less than 50 laps remaining in the AAA 400, Johnson was running fourth. Seventeen cars piled into the melee and that destroyed quite a few fantasy rosters and created opportunities for some dark horses. Matt Kenseth winning this spring was not a surprise and in hindsight, the strong runs of Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were predictive of their Chase hopes, but Trevor Bayne, Clint Bowyer, Danica Patrick, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. got a spike to their season.
Dover is fraught with peril. Anything can happen in the field and the Chase contenders are more than a little nervous this week. That means the biggest question surrounding the Citizen Soldier 400 is who can hold their breath for four hours?
10 best drivers at Dover
Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Kyle Larson
Last six races average finish at Dover: 6.20 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 6.2 in 5 attempts
If only races were run on paper. Larson could start making plans for Charlotte Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Talladega SuperSpeedway as a Chase contender. This is his best track by far in a brief career. His worst finish of 11th on this course might be enough to advance, but he has to survive Dover for 400 long laps.
2. Jeff Gordon
Last six races average finish at Dover: 8.40 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 11.4 in 46 attempts
Gordon has two more opportunities to leave NASCAR with a good impression. Since climbing into the No. 88 in relief of Dale Earnhardt Jr., he has struggled with the new downforce package. Dover and Martinsville Speedway in several weeks are tracks that suit his driving style and he still has an opportunity to score a 476th or 477th top-10.
3. Kevin Harvick (tied with Truex)
Last six races average finish at Dover: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 14.3 in 31 attempts
Harvick entered this race needing to win in order to advance to the second round of the Chase. He was coming off a second-place finish in the spring and had a near-perfect Dover season. He probably would have kept that streak alive in the AAA 400 this June if he had not been involved in the late-race “Big One”.
3. Martin Truex Jr. (tied with Harvick)
Last six races average finish at Dover: 9.00
Career avg. finish: 14.8 in 21 attempts
Truex has only one Dover top-five to his credit, but it was a good one. He won the June 2007 race. Since then he has finished sixth or seventh on a few occasions and owes his position in the top five this week to consistency. His last six efforts have all netted top-15s and all but two were top-10s.
5. Clint Bowyer (tied with Logano)
Last six races average finish at Dover: 9.67
Career avg. finish: 11.9 in 21 attempts
Bowyer got a bit of a gift this spring when 18 cars sustained damage in the AAA 400. He scored his 11th consecutive top-15 because he minimized the crash damage and stayed on the lead lap. It is unlikely lightning will strike the same place twice, but Bowyer could record a solid top-20 with a little luck and at his cap level that would be acceptable.
5. Joey Logano (tied with Bowyer)
Last six races average finish at Dover: 9.67
Career avg. finish: 13.9 in 15 attempts
Logano did not look very good last week at New Hampshire and on Friday in Dover, he did not look much better. He got a break because the race will be lined up by points, which puts him fifth on the grid. The closer one is to the front, the fewer cars there are ahead of them to make a mistake, so Logano should survive the opening laps. That will give him time to work on his car.
7. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Dover: 10.33
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 35 attempts
If not for a suspension failure in spring 2015, Kenseth would be at the top of the list this week. His worst finish otherwise during the past six races has been a seventh and he won this spring’s AAA 400. This is a great track for the Chaser, but so have the opening two venues.
8. Kasey Kahne
Last six races average finish at Dover: 11.00
Career avg. finish: 19.0 in 25 attempts
Kahne has four consecutive top-10s in the past four weeks. He has three consecutive top-10s at Dover, and if he can keep the setup that ran so well this spring, he will move up the order by next May. More importantly, he will be a great differentiator in the Citizen Soldier 400.
9. Jimmie Johnson
Last six races average finish at Dover: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 9.6 in 29 attempts
Johnson has three wins and a third-place finish in the past six Dover races; that should tell you how bad his most recent two efforts have ended. He finished 41st with a broken seal last fall and 25th with crash damage this spring. The last time he finished worse than 15th in back-to-back Dover races prior to this was, well… never.
10. Brad Keselowski
Last six races average finish at Dover: 12.50
Career avg. finish: 15.0 in 14 attempts
So long as Keselowski finishes better than 37th this week, his three-year average will improve. An engine problem in fall 2013 brings down his numbers, but he has not been nearly as strong in recent years as he was surrounding that failure. In 2012 through 2014 he had one win, two runner-up finishes, and a fifth in five starts. His last three have netted only one top-10 and two top-15s.
26. Austin Dillon
Last six races average finish at Dover: 26.60
Career avg. finish: 26.7 in 6 attempts
This is not the track Dillon would have chosen as his last stand to earn enough points to advance to round two. In six previous starts, he has a best finish of only 20th and an average of worse than 25th. The playoffs have a way of elevating one’s game, however, and Dillon could still pull this off.
Rank | Driver | 3 Yr. Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 6.20 | 5 | |
2. | 8.40 | 5 | |
3. | 9.00 | 6 | |
3. | 9.00 | 6 | |
5. | 9.67 | 6 | |
5. | 9.67 | 6 | |
7. | 10.33 | 6 | |
8. | 11.00 | 6 | |
9. | 12.00 | 6 | |
10. | 12.50 | 6 | |
| |||
11. | 13.00 | 6 | |
12. | 13.83 | 6 | |
13. | 14.67 | 6 | |
14. | 16.67 | 6 | |
15. | 17.17 | 6 | |
16. | 18.33 | 6 | |
17. | 19.40 | 5 | |
18. | 20.33 | 6 | |
19. | 20.83 | 6 | |
20. | 21.00 | 6 | |
21. | 21.17 | 6 | |
22. | 22.67 | 6 | |
23. | 24.00 | 6 | |
24. | 24.33 | 6 | |
25. | 25.50 | 6 | |
26. | 26.60 | 5 | |
27. | 27.50 | 6 | |
28. | 28.00 | 3 | |
29. | 31.00 | 2 | |
30. | 31.50 | 4 | |
30. | 31.50 | 2 | |
30. | 31.50 | 6 | |
33. | 33.60 | 5 | |
34. | 35.33 | 3 | |
35. | 36.50 | 2 | |
36. | 37.33 | 6 | |
37. | 38.20 | 5 | |
38. | 39.33 | 3 | |
Drivers with only one start | |||
| 3.00 | 1 | |
| 8.00 | 1 | |
| 18.00 | 1 | |
| 35.00 | 1 | |
| 39.00 | 1 | |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 16, 1993 Splitifre Spark Plug 500
Fewest caution flags: 0, 1971 Mason-Dixon 500
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.9
In 2016: 7.5
Final Caution, last five races:
May 2016: Lap 361 of 400: two-car accident on backstretch (Carl Edwards spun by Kyle Larson)
October 2015: Lap 373 of 400: Oil from Landon Cassill
May 2015: Lap 400 of 405: 3-car accident in turn 3 (Casey Mears, Greg Biffle, and AJ Allmendinger)
September 2014: Lap 255 of 400: debris
June 2014: Lap 394 of 400: debris
Most caution laps: 103, 1993 Splitifre Spark Plug 500
Fewest caution laps: 0, 1971 Mason-Dixon 500
Average number of caution laps per race: 44.5
In 2016: 41.1
Leading the way
Most leaders: 13 (3 times), 2011 AAA 400, 2000 MBNA.com 400, 1997 Miller 500Fewest leaders: 3 (6 times), 2015 AAA 400 (Challenger Race), 1982 Mason-Dixon 500, 1974 Mason-Dixon 500, 1971 Delaware 500, 1970 Mason-Dixon 300, 1969 Mason-Dixon 300
Average number of leaders: 7.5
In 2016: 8.6
Most lead changes: 29 (2 times), 1986 Budweiser 500, 1980 CRC Chemicals 500
Fewest lead changes: 3, 1971 Delaware 500
Average number of lead changes: 17.1
In 2016: 16.9
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Dover (starting position):May 2016: Matt Kenseth (10)
October: Kevin Harvick (15)
May 2015: Jimmie Johnson (14)
September 2014: Jeff Gordon (6)
June 2014: Jimmie Johnson (4)
Worst starting position for race winner: 37th, Kyle Petty Miller Genuine Draft 500
A race at Dover has been won by the pole sitter 13 times and from the front row 28 times in 92 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
September 2010: Jimmie Johnson, AAA 400
September 2009: Jimmie Johnson, AAA 400
June 2003: Ryan Newman, MBNA Armed Forces Family 400
June 1999: Bobby Labonte, MBNA Platinum 400
Active winners at Dover
Jimmie Johnson: 10
Jeff Gordon: 5
Ryan Newman: 3
Tony Stewart: 3
Matt Kenseth: 3
Greg Biffle: 2
Kyle Busch: 2
Kurt Busch: 1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 1
Carl Edwards: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Martin Truex Jr.: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Top-10 All-time Winners:
Jimmie Johnson: 10
Bobby Allison: 7
Richard Petty: 7
Jeff Gordon: 5
David Pearson: 5
Bill Elliott: 4
Harry Gant: 4
Mark Martin: 4
Ricky Rudd: 4
Dale Earnhardt: 3
Ryan Newman: 3
Tony Stewart: 3
Rusty Wallace: 3
Cale Yarborough: 3
Matt Kenseth: 3
First time winners at Dover:
2007: Martin Truex Jr., Autism Speaks 400 by Visa
1981: Jody Ridley, Mason-Dixon 500
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Dover race they started:Jamie McMurray (27)
Clint Bowyer (21)
Paul Menard (18)
Brad Keselowski (13)
Danica Patrick (8)
Austin Dillon (6)
Kyle Larson (5)
Trevor Bayne (3)
Ryan Blaney (1)
Chris Buescher (1)
Jeffrey Earnhardt (1)
Chase Elliott (1)
Carl Edwards had a perfect record of 23 races running at the end until Johnson missed a shift and created an 18-car pileup this spring.
Aric Almirola had been running at the end of eight straight races until he was caught up in this spring’s late-race accident.
Matt DiBenedetto had been running at the end of two races until he crashed on lap 116 this spring.
Cole Whitt had been running at the end of five straight races until he experienced a vibration in May 2016; Timmy Hill is behind the wheel this week.
David Ragan failed to finish his first race in 2006, but has been running at the end of the last 19.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Jimmie Johnson: 1 (both 2002 races)
Kyle Busch: 2 (both 2005 races)
Chase Elliott: 3 (2016)
Ryan Newman: 4 (2002)
Tony Stewart: 4 (1999)
Aric Almirola: 6 (2012)
Matt Kenseth: 6 (1998) *
Ryan Blaney: 8 (2016)
Kevin Harvick: 8 (2001)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10 (2000)
* The first race of his career; Kenseth previously failed to qualify at Talladega in his first attempt.
Current Streaks
At DoverKyle Larson, four top-10s
Kasey Kahne, three top-20s
Matt Kenseth, two top-10s
No Comparative
Dover has no real comparative track; Bristol comes close but it has undergone too many changes
In 2016
Brad Keselowski, five top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., four top-fives
Kasey Kahne, four top-10s
Kyle Busch, three top-10s
Matt Kenseth, two top-10s
A 15th-place finish last week snapped a nine-race top-10 streak for Denny Hamlin.
An 11th-place finish last week snapped a six-race top-10 streak for Joey Logano.
