The regular season is more than halfway over, but a break for Father’s Day between the Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan International Speedway and the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway gives fantasy owners an opportunity to step back and assess the value of the entire field.
The stats mentioned below will reinforce how well Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. have run, but in most games it is impossible to load the roster with those drivers. The key to success is in the proper management of the mid-tier drivers and the exploitation of dark horses.
This week’s Statistically Speaking column will look at some significant numbers from NASCAR Statistical Services as well as the writer’s database of more than 550,000 records to help identify favorites and sleepers.
Average Finish
It will come as absolutely no surprise to anyone that Harvick, Truex, and Busch have the three best average finishes in the first 15 races. Likewise, it is not unexpected to see Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. in this list, but there are a few names one might not immediately expect. Jamie McMurray’s 13.27 and Ryan Newman’s 14.13 place them ahead of the other two Hendrick mates Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne and make them sleepers almost every week.Aric Almirola has the 15th-best average finish, which makes him a strong dark horse and the part time effort of Ty Dillon sets him apart from the rest of the interlopers. Casey Mears and AJ Allmendinger are also worthy of note.
Average Finish | |||
Rank | Driver | Avg. Fin | Attempts |
1. | 7.33 | 15 | |
2. | 7.60 | 15 | |
3. | 9.92 | 13 | |
4. | 10.20 | 15 | |
5. | 10.80 | 15 | |
6. | 11.60 | 15 | |
7. | 12.93 | 15 | |
8. | 13.27 | 15 | |
9. | 14.13 | 15 | |
10. | 14.33 | 15 | |
Notable Others | |||
11. | 14.53 | 15 | |
12. | 15.53 | 15 | |
13. | 16.00 | 15 | |
14. | 17.20 | 15 | |
15. | 17.27 | 15 | |
16. | 18.13 | 15 | |
21. | 21.50 | 4 | |
22. | 21.53 | 15 | |
23. | 22.67 | 15 | |
28. | 24.75 | 5 | |
30. | 26.20 | 15 | |
45. | JJ Yeley | 33.64 | 15 |
46. | 34.13 | 15 | |
48. | 36.90 | 10 | |
49. | 39.00 | 15 | |
52. | 40.86 | 14 | |
Average Improvement
Several games offer points for place differential, so it is important to know who runs better in race trim than in qualification. While Cole Whitt and David Gilliland may not earn a lot of race points, their improvements of better than seven spots on average have allowed fantasy owners to sneak a few wins during the season.
Conversely, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards have lost the most positions on average and sit at the bottom of this list among drivers who have made more than a handful of starts. With the 16th-best average finish, Edwards has offset him loss somewhat, but the same cannot be said of Stewart.
Average Improvement | |||||
Rank | Driver | Avg. Fin | Avg. Start | Starts | Diff |
10 Best | |||||
1. | Cole Whitt | 28.13 | 35.87 | 15 | 7.73 |
2. | Aric Almirola | 17.27 | 24.67 | 15 | 7.40 |
3. | David Gilliland | 26.73 | 33.80 | 15 | 7.07 |
4. | Brett Moffitt | 27.54 | 32.54 | 13 | 5.00 |
5. | Matt DiBenedetto | 33.43 | 38.42 | 14 | 4.99 |
6. | Trevor Bayne | 26.47 | 30.93 | 15 | 4.47 |
7. | Clint Bowyer | 18.27 | 22.33 | 15 | 4.07 |
8. | JJ Yeley | 33.64 | 37.67 | 15 | 4.02 |
9. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 10.80 | 14.20 | 15 | 3.40 |
10. | Jimmie Johnson | 11.60 | 14.93 | 15 | 3.33 |
Notable Others | |||||
11. | Martin Truex Jr. | 7.60 | 10.87 | 15 | 3.27 |
15. | Kurt Busch | 9.92 | 11.46 | 13 | 1.54 |
18. | Jamie McMurray | 13.27 | 14.20 | 15 | 0.93 |
22. | Kevin Harvick | 7.33 | 7.53 | 15 | 0.20 |
25. | Ryan Newman | 14.13 | 13.67 | 15 | -0.47 |
28. | Kasey Kahne | 14.53 | 12.67 | 15 | -1.87 |
31. | Matt Kenseth | 14.33 | 12.00 | 15 | -2.33 |
10 Worst | |||||
32. | Brad Keselowski | 12.93 | 10.20 | 15 | -2.73 |
33. | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 26.60 | 23.67 | 15 | -2.93 |
34. | Denny Hamlin | 17.20 | 12.87 | 15 | -4.33 |
35. | Joey Logano | 10.20 | 5.87 | 15 | -4.33 |
36. | Jeff Gordon | 15.53 | 11.07 | 15 | -4.47 |
37. | Austin Dillon | 23.13 | 16.53 | 15 | -6.60 |
38. | Kyle Larson | 18.43 | 11.00 | 15 | -7.43 |
39. | David Ragan | 24.07 | 15.93 | 15 | -8.13 |
40. | Carl Edwards | 18.13 | 9.27 | 15 | -8.87 |
41. | Tony Stewart | 26.20 | 16.60 | 15 | -9.60 |
Top-10 Finishes
Drivers are regarded by the number of top-10 finishes they earn in a year. Until last week at Michigan, Truex and Harvick were tied with near-perfect records and each of them missed the elite status only one time in the season. Harvick’s tire failure gave the advantage to the No. 78 and makes Truex the better value in this regard.
Notably, 13 drivers have earned just one top-10 this year, which puts an emphasis on picking the right dark horse each week. Brett Moffitt, Josh Wise, and Ryan Blaney are fresh faces on this list.
Top-10s | ||
Rank | Driver | Top 10s |
1. | 14 | |
2. | 13 | |
3. | 11 | |
4. | 10 | |
5. | 9 | |
5. | 9 | |
5. | 9 | |
8. | 8 | |
8. | 8 | |
10. | 7 | |
10. | 7 | |
| ||
12. | 6 | |
13. | 5 | |
13. | 5 | |
15. | 4 | |
15. | 4 | |
17. | 2 | |
17. | 2 | |
17. | 2 | |
17. | 2 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
21. | 1 | |
Most Laps in the Top 10
Another sign of strength is the ability to run with the leaders for the majority of a race. Occasionally factors like an accident or pit strategy rob a driver of a strong run, but in order to properly handicap him the following week, strength-based intangibles such as this are vitally important.Harvick and Truex continue to dominate this list, but Kurt Busch gets pushed down to sixth because he missed the first three weeks of the season.
One remarkable driver on the list is Kyle Busch. He has suffered two race-ending accidents in his four 2015 attempts, but he logged enough laps in the top 10 to place 18th on this chart.
Laps in the Top 10 | ||||
Rank | Driver | Complete | Possible | Races |
1. | 4,119 | 3,793 | 15 | |
2. | 3,241 | 3,793 | 15 | |
3. | 3,066 | 3,793 | 15 | |
4. | 2,879 | 3,793 | 15 | |
5. | 2,869 | 3,793 | 15 | |
6. | 2,816 | 2,998 | 12 | |
7. | 2,640 | 3,793 | 15 | |
8. | 2,623 | 3,793 | 15 | |
9. | 2,474 | 3,793 | 15 | |
10. | 2,341 | 3,793 | 15 | |
Notable Others | ||||
11. | 2236 | 3793 | 15 | |
12. | 2125 | 3793 | 15 | |
13. | 2115 | 3793 | 15 | |
16. | 1166 | 3793 | 15 | |
18. | 889 | 965 | 4 | |
24. | 362 | 3793 | 15 | |
27. | 207 | 3793 | 15 | |
42. | 12 | 3590 | 14 | |
47. | 7 | 3590 | 14 | |
51. | JJ Yeley | 4 | 3393 | 14 |
Positions Improved During the Last 10%
One of the statistics tracked by NASCAR is the number of position improved or lost during the final 10 percent of a race. There are a few big names among the top 10 such as Earnhardt, McMurray, and Truex, but most of these may come as a bombshell.
Anyone who has tracked Gordon’s inability to restart will be unsurprised by his inclusion among the 10 worst drivers in the final 10 percent of races, but he is joined by some other marquee racers like Matt Kenseth, Kahne, Edwards, and Larson.
Positions Improved During the Last 10% of a Race | |||
Rank | Driver | Average Spots Gained | Positions Moved Up |
10 Best | |||
1. | 3.5 | 53 | |
2. | 2.1 | 31 | |
3. | 1.9 | 28 | |
4. | 1.7 | 26 | |
5. | 1.6 | 24 | |
6. | 1.5 | 23 | |
7. | 1.5 | 22 | |
8. | 1.4 | 21 | |
8. | JJ Yeley | 1.5 | 21 |
10. | 1.3 | 20 | |
Notable Others | |||
11. | 1.3 | 19 | |
15. | 1.1 | 16 | |
16. | 1.0 | 15 | |
16. | 1.0 | 15 | |
21. | .7 | 11 | |
41. | -.1 | -2 | |
51. | -.9 | -14 | |
52. | -1.3 | -15 | |
10 Worst | |||
54. | -4.5 | -18 | |
55. | -1.9 | -28 | |
56. | -1.9 | -29 | |
57. | -2.5 | -37 | |
58. | -9.5 | -38 | |
59. | -2.6 | -39 | |
60. | -2.7 | -40 | |
61. | -4.0 | -60 | |
62. | -4.4 | -62 | |
63. | -4.5 | -67 | |
Percentage of Laps Run on the Lead Lap
Drivers need to stay on the lead lap for the majority of a race to be in position to win or score top-10 finishes. Often overlooked, the percentage of laps run on the lead lap is perhaps one of the most important stats at a fantasy player’s disposal.
You guessed it: Kurt Busch, Harvick, and Truex are all among the top 10, but Menard and Almirola may come as a bigger surprise. Notably, Keselowski, Johnson, Logano, and Newman all fail to crack the top 10.
Percentage of Laps Run on the Lead Lap | ||||
Rank | Driver | Percentage | On Lead Lap | Total Laps |
1. | Kurt Busch | 96.31 | 3,683 | 3,824 |
2. | Kevin Harvick | 94.24 | 4,353 | 4,619 |
3. | Jeff Gordon | 92.90 | 4,291 | 4,619 |
4. | Matt Kenseth | 92.01 | 4,250 | 4,619 |
5. | Kasey Kahne | 91.23 | 4,214 | 4,619 |
6. | Martin Truex Jr. | 90.63 | 4,186 | 4,619 |
7. | Carl Edwards | 89.07 | 4,114 | 4,619 |
8. | Paul Menard | 88.46 | 4,086 | 4,619 |
9. | Jamie McMurray | 88.35 | 4,081 | 4,619 |
10. | Aric Almirola | 88.11 | 4,070 | 4,619 |
Notable Others | ||||
11. | Brad Keselowski | 85.67 | 3,957 | 4,619 |
12. | Jimmie Johnson | 84.48 | 3,902 | 4,619 |
14. | Joey Logano | 83.70 | 3,866 | 4,619 |
15. | Ryan Newman | 82.12 | 3,793 | 4,619 |
16. | Denny Hamlin | 81.34 | 3,757 | 4,619 |
18. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 75.73 | 3,498 | 4,619 |
23. | Danica Patrick | 67.79 | 3,131 | 4,619 |
27. | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 56.57 | 2,613 | 4,619 |
Speed in Traffic
The final stat looked at this week is also occasionally overlooked. Drivers who show exceptional speed in traffic have the greatest opportunity to get around their competitors and NASCAR Statistical Services tracks just how fast everyone is when they are within a car length of another racer.For all his inability to restart, Gordon is actually quite the beast when he finally gets back to the bumper of another driver. Earnhardt, Truex, and Kenseth are three other top-10 drivers who are not known for their over-aggressive ways and yet they prove their mettle in heavy traffic.
Speed in Traffic | |||
Rank | Driver | Point Standing Position | Average Rank |
1. | 1 | 4.867 | |
2. | 4 | 6.533 | |
3. | 10 | 7.533 | |
4. | 9 | 8.400 | |
5. | 5 | 8.733 | |
5. | 6 | 8.733 | |
7. | 11 | 9.167 | |
8. | 2 | 9.733 | |
9. | 8 | 12.533 | |
10. | 13 | 12.800 | |
Notable Others | |||
11. | 3 | 13.667 | |
12. | 7 | 14.333 | |
13. | 12 | 14.400 | |
14. | 16 | 15.400 | |
16. | 14 | 16.267 | |
18. | 15 | 19.600 | |
21. | 22 | 21.667 | |
23. | 20 | 22.800 | |
27. | 24 | 26.133 | |
