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We’re back with another edition of “Leveraging the Default Rankings” and I’m happy to be your host this year.
Basically, the goal of this exercise is to mine the pre-draft rankings for Yahoo and ESPN in hopes of spotting some players that could be overvalued or undervalued. We’ll also take a look at where the players who have been generating headlines are ranked, as well as guys that are buried in the rankings but who could still offer some appeal.
This piece is not meant to criticize these sites. It’s just one man’s opinion. What you do with it is up to you.
These rankings are from the morning of March 31, 2022. They are based on a 5x5 Roto league with daily transactions which uses one catcher, four outfielders and two utility spots. There is a 1,400-inning max for the season.
Yahoo Rankings:
Players listed lower overall than expected:
26. Kyle Tucker
32. Shohei Ohtani (batter)
36. Mike Trout
74. Salvador Perez
91. Zack Wheeler
92. Tyler O’Neill
107. Eloy Jimenez
132. Aaron Nola
146. Jazz Chisholm
158. Logan Webb
195. Jose Berrios
230. Blake Snell
266. Yasmani Grandal
294. Dylan Cease
319. Tyler Mahle
377. Daulton Varsho
Putting Vlad Jr. 10 is hardly egregious, but he’s been a consensus top-five pick. I have him third in my personal rankings … Ohtani and Trout rarely fall out of the first round, so this seems pretty low for them. Obviously, the ranking for Ohtani can depend greatly on how a site lists him. Yahoo has two Ohtanis, with the pitching version coming in at No. 118 … Perez has been the top-scoring catcher by a wide margin each of the last two seasons. He has the potential to be a big difference-maker at the position from a power perspective … Wheeler’s shoulder injury this spring is clearly baked into the cost here. He’s been throwing without issue for a while, though, and is slated to make his spring debut this weekend … Nola is coming off a disappointing season from an ERA perspective and will have probably the worst defense in baseball behind him, so I understand the pessimism. There’s no way I’m letting him last past pick 100, though … The industry generally seems quite bullish on Webb, so this is a conservative ranking. Worth noting is that he did have shoulder issues last year and the track record is still pretty short … Cease can often frustrate with inconsistency, but he has loads of upside and you can bet he’ll be off the board well before pick No. 294 … The overall production in the majors from Varsho to this point has been ho-hum, but he finished strong last season and offers unmatched speed potential at the catcher position. He’s been a favorite target of mine …
Players listed higher than expected:
11. Tim Anderson
13. Liam Hendriks
60. Jordan Romano
66. Adam Wainwright
84. Dylan Carlson
86. Yuli Gurriel
106. Joe Ryan
108. Devin Williams
113. Eddie Rosario
124. Bailey Ober
I have no issues with Woodruff and would be happy to start off my pitching staff with him. Just note that this ranking is fairly aggressive when compared to the consensus … The all-around appeal of Anderson is obvious. There are just quite a few guys I’d prefer to roster that are ranked after him here … We’ve seen Hendriks and Hader taken around the 1-2 turn in some drafts. They are in a tier of their own among closers, so I can understand the strategy. Normally, though, you’ll be able to get them a couple rounds later … Gallegos could very well return value at the above price if the Cardinals stick him in the closer role and leave him there, but they don’t seem inclined to do that. Romano has been one of my favorite reliever targets, but I wouldn’t be able to take him this early … Wainwright was a top-10 fantasy starter last season and would seem to offer a safe floor. He’s 40, though, and lacks the strikeout ability of other pitchers ranked around him here … Gurriel finished as a top-five fantasy first baseman in 2021 thanks to a league-leading .319 average. Because of his lack of power, though, he might need to come close to that average again to justify this ranking … These rankings are very bullish on a couple Twins starters in Ryan and Ober. I like them both myself – particularly Ryan – but not to this degree. I have a bit of worry that home runs could be an issue for them …
Where the buzz guys are ranked:
47. Wander Franco
54. Bobby Witt Jr.
56. Byron Buxton
88. Christian Yelich
147. Michael Kopech
179. Seiya Suzuki
182. Julio Rodriguez
218. Riley Greene
221. Oneil Cruz
226. Cody Bellinger
269. Nick Lodolo
334. Jo Adell
362. Adley Rutschman
368. Spencer Torkelson
382. MacKenzie Gore
390. Matt Brash
404. Jesus Luzardo
420. Hunter Greene
This is right in line with the ADP for Franco. I can’t quite get on board at this spot in redrafts, but it’s wholly understandable for the wunderkind … At this point it would be a shock if Witt Jr. isn’t included on the Royals’ Opening Day roster, so his draft price is only going to rise … This looks about right for Yelich, who generally goes just inside the top-100 in most formats. It’s a clear hedge, as it’s possible – if not likely – that the former MVP finishes much higher or lower than this … Four months of production from Tatis Jr. is still easily worth a top-100 pick in my estimation, particularly in shallower leagues where the replacement level is higher … Will Rodriguez crack the Mariners’ Opening Day roster? It’s looking possible, and the sky is the limit for the supremely talented 21-year-old … Greene and Torkelson also look to have a real shot to make the Opening Day roster for the Tigers. While Torkelson is viewed as having the more polished bat, the gap in ranking between the two here is understandable given Greene’s five-category potential … Clearly, these rankings reflect a bearish outlook for Bellinger, whose stock has continued to drop as he struggles this spring. If you are a believer in a bounce-back, you’ll obviously need to use a pick much higher than this … Lodolo, Gore, Brash, Luzardo and Greene all represent high-upside dart throws. Interesting, the only two to have officially locked up rotation spots are the lowest ranked of the bunch here …
Who to scroll down for:
215. Willy Adames
259. Myles Straw
277. Eduardo Rodriguez
290. Tony Gonsolin
300. Mitch Garver
311. Carlos Carrasco
329. Alex Cobb
330. Kyle Hendricks
354. Connor Joe
367. Patrick Sandoval
378. Luis Urias
431. Andrew Vaughn
432. Noah Syndergaard
464. Steven Matz
494. Alejandro Kirk
Shortstop is very deep, and we have fewer than 100 games of data from Adames with the Brewers. If his stellar work with the Brew Crew does carry over, though, he’s a bargain at this ranking … Straw is surely going to be taken much earlier than this by a speed-hungry team. Some fantasy managers will effectively remove him from their draft boards, though, and I get it … If you wind up waiting on arms, there are still loads of intriguing ones in this range. Carrasco, Cobb, Sandoval and Matz are among my favorite of the hurlers above, although they all have their own level of appeal … The playing time for Joe isn’t set in stone. He was very good for the Rockies last season, though, and boasts excellent plate discipline along with the Coors Field boost … I find myself taking catcher earlier this year, but if I do wind up waiting, Garver and Kirk are guys I like a lot. Garver crushes the ball when healthy and it looks like he’ll play more with the Rangers. Kirk, meanwhile, seems to be in line for ample time in the Blue Jays’ DH spot …
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ESPN Rankings:
Players listed lower overall than expected:
14. Trea Turner
33. Bo Bichette
72. Salvador Perez
75. Cedric Mullins
76. DJ LeMahieu
79. Whit Merrifield
81. Sean Manaea
84. Luis Robert
91. Austin Riley
103. Starling Marte
112. Teoscar Hernandez
122. Tim Anderson
158. Randy Arozarena
174. Tyler O’Neill
205. Yoan Moncada
216. Mike Clevinger
218. Javier Baez
266. Jazz Chisholm
336. Adalberto Mondesi
Turner is the consensus No. 1 overall pick since Fernando Tatis Jr.’s wrist injury, but he’s ranked quite a bit lower here. It’s probably fair to say that he doesn’t have the upside of some other first-rounders, but he’s an elite five-category contributor with multi-position eligibility … Bichette will go within the first five picks in virtually every draft, so if you’re basing decisions on these rankings, you’re not going to end up with him … Mullins figures to take a step back after being the only 30-30 player in baseball last season, but he’ll still provide excellent across-the-board production and shouldn’t be greatly affected by the fence moving out in left field at Camden Yards … Merrifield’s OPS has been in steady decline, but his speed is hard to find and because he’s so durable he’s a big compiler … Robert greatly improved his contact rate last season and that, combined with his big exit velocity, suddenly makes him a great batting average bet. His detractors will point to uncertainty from a stolen base perspective, but no one questions the upside … We have quite the disparity in rankings for Anderson on these two sites. Realistically, he’s likely to be picked closer to the average of the two rankings … O’Neill’s propensity for swings and misses makes him inherently risky, but with elite exit velocity and speed he has the ingredients to overcome it … The Mondesi ranking sticks out like a sore thumb. Even if you bake in the inevitable missed time due to injury, he should have no trouble out-earning his placement here …
Players listed higher than expected:
16. Robbie Ray
19. Aaron Nola
29. Alex Bregman
38. Frankie Montas
42. Yu Darvish
59. Max Muncy
86. Anthony Rizzo
164. Frank Schwindel
173. Carlos Santana
183. Drew Rasmussen
189. David Fletcher
198. Andrew Heaney
These rankings clearly believe in Ray’s breakout last season. The risk that his control reverts back to pre-2021 levels is obvious, but the left-hander is in a favorable situation in Seattle … ESPN has Nola more than 100 spots higher than Yahoo, as they’re clearly buying into his elite peripherals from last year and not so much his home run problems and poor defense behind him … Muncy could easily earn this ranking and then some if he stays healthy, and he’s felt fine this spring. Still, the risk is obvious … These rankings really like Rizzo re-signing with the Yankees. The short porch in right field is certainly appealing – especially for a guy who doesn’t hit the ball terribly hard – but Rizzo actually hit worse as a Yankee last year than he did as a Cub … ESPN is also fairly bullish on Rizzo’s replacement in Chicago in Schwindel. Schwindel is similar to Rizzo in that he doesn’t impact the ball very hard but also rarely strikes out … It will be interesting to see how Rasmussen fares as a starter in 2022 after thriving in the role down the stretch last season. He had made just one start in the last two years before the Rays thrust him into the rotation, and he never went beyond five innings …
Where the buzz guys are ranked:
27. Wander Franco
97. Cody Bellinger
109. Christian Yelich
123. Michael Kopech
128. Seiya Suzuki
145. Bobby Witt Jr.
159. Byron Buxton
225. Spencer Torkelson
277. Adley Rutschman
344. Oneil Cruz
354. Jesus Luzardo
394. Riley Greene
421. Jo Adell
506. Julio Rodriguez
585. Matt Brash
589. Hunter Greene
1060. Nick Lodolo
1125. MacKenzie Gore
The rankings here are much more bearish on Witt Jr.’s outlook, although worth noting is that it appears mostly due to a lack of volume. The 21-year-old is a special talent, having come just one stolen base shy of a 30-30 season in the minors in 2021 even as he jumped from rookie ball to Double- and Triple-A … Buxton’s lower placement here also looks to be mostly because of a lack of volume. It’s certainly fair to expect him to miss time due to injury, but a mega-breakout seems like a good bet if he’s able to stay on the field … Rutschman’s triceps injury this spring could delay his arrival a bit, but he has the upside to be a top-10 catcher even in a partial season … The penny-pinching Pirates unsurprisingly sent Cruz down already, but he doesn’t figure to be in the minors long even as he learns the outfield. Cruz oozes talent with his lanky frame and robust exit velocities … Adell’s ADP is on the rise with his big showing so far this spring. The ability is undeniable, but he still has plenty to prove at the major league level …
Who to scroll down for:
231. Luke Voit
240. Brendan Rodgers
247. Alex Kirilloff
260. Alex Cobb
270. Akil Baddoo
276. Carlos Carrasco
283. Mitch Garver
288. Myles Straw
299. Alejandro Kirk
309. Adolis Garcia
332. Connor Joe
349. Alec Bohm
360. Lane Thomas
363. Mark Melancon
Voit was going to be banished to the bench after the Yankees re-signed Anthony Rizzo, but they freed him in a trade to San Diego where he’ll be a full-time DH. The 31-year-old has been a big-time power bat when on the field … Rodgers is a former top-10 prospect, is only 25 and is coming off a solid showing last season. It feels like many are still sleeping on his upside … Kirilloff showed promise last season before trying to play through a nagging wrist injury. He had surgery and is healthy now, giving the 24-year-old breakout potential … Baddoo made a pretty miraculous jump from A-ball to the majors in 2021 after being idle for nearly two years due to injury. He needs to figure out left-handed pitching, but if he does he might be a five-category stud … Bohm is going undrafted in many leagues following last year’s disappointment, but he still hit the ball very hard last season and it wasn’t long ago that he was one of the top prospects in the game … Melancon is now 37 and it seems like we’ve been waiting for the wheels to come off for a while now. He was good last year, though, and enters 2022 as an unquestioned closer (albeit on a bad team) …
