Reserve round picks:
24th round: Blake Treinen RP, Dodgers
25th round: Spencer Howard SP, Phillies
26th round: Pablo Lopez SP, Marlins
Coming off a disappointing year which saw him non-tendered by the A’s, Treinen is a bit of a dice roll in case Kenley Jansen falters. Howard is one of the better pitching prospects in the game and should be major-league ready at some point soon. Lopez put up a 5.09 ERA last season, but he showed flashes prior to going down with a shoulder injury and his changeup is a legitimate weapon.
27th round: Ender Inciarte OF, Braves
28th round: Spencer Turnbull SP, Tigers
29th round: Clint Frazier OF, Yankees
I’m not convinced Inciarte will have a job all year, so he’s mostly a late-round speed gamble. Turnbull went 3-17 last year (really!), but he’s obviously a better pitcher than that. Like Tauchman, Frazier is a worthy flier given the Yankees’ injury situation.
My quick lineup takeaways:
Picking fourth, I figured none of the big three (Trout, Acuna, Yelich) would be there. So my plan was to take Juan Soto and hammer OBP early. I managed to do that with the likes of Yordan Alvarez (please be healthy) and Max Muncy. I was also thrilled to get Brandon Nimmo very late. OBP is going to be my lineup’s biggest strength. The other strength of my roster is the versatility, as Muncy, McNeil, Edman, Newman, and Diaz are all eligible at multiple positions. I’ll be prepared if/when injuries inevitably strike. I was also able to address speed despite largely ignoring it early on. Zooming out, my biggest concern with my lineup is power, especially if Alvarez needs to miss some time. I might have gotten *too* carried away with OBP. I’ve fallen into that trap before, but obviously I can deal from my strength to address other areas of need during the season.
My quick pitching staff takeaways:
With Kershaw and Price, I’m not concerned about the win potential on my squad. If healthy, they should be in great shape with that deep Dodgers’ lineup. There’s some risk with ratios, as DeSclafani and Montgomery both pitch in hitter-friendly home stadiums. Marcus Stroman isn’t really a strikeout guy, even though he missed a few more bats after joining the Mets. My squad could really hinge on whether Montas’ 16-start sample from last season is the real deal. Richards staying healthy and dominating would make me feel a lot better about my chances. Hand and Doolittle come with health concerns, but they are closers on good teams and that’s all you can really ask for coming out of a draft. Who the heck knows with closers anyway?
My quick league takeaways:
There were definitely some interesting strategies here, as Scott White and Dan Strafford both attacked the pitching side. White used his first two picks (Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber) and three out of his first six on pitchers. He selected five starting pitchers before securing a closer. This approach was even more stark with Strafford, who used five out of his first eight picks on pitchers, including two closers. Strafford still set himself up pretty nicely from a speed perspective (with Jose Ramirez and Jonathan Villar), but both teams lineups’ appear to be lacking on the whole. Michael Beller was on the other extreme, loading up on bats while going a little light on pitching. I’m fascinated to see how it all plays out, but my approach is usually to have a well-balanced roster.
After a third-place finish last year, my sense is that Seth Trachtman will be right in the thick of things again this year. There’s a nice advantage to drafting third overall in a snake draft this year and he certainly took advantage of that. I do have some concerns about his rotation depth beyond Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke. Anthony Perri’s team also looks very strong, even if Aaron Judge has to miss some time. The delayed start of the season could work to his advantage.
Good value: There’s something to be said for taking veteran players when exciting, young players come off the board early and I think Scott White did a great job with his back-to-back picks of Jose Altuve and Charlie Blackmon. I found the Blackmon pick to be especially strong given his proven on-base ability with the backdrop of Coors Field. Who cares if he doesn’t run anymore? He does literally everything else exceptionally well. Let’s just hope he stays in Coors Field.
Reach: Eddie Rosario is a fine fantasy option, but he’s a flawed hitter, especially in this format. He was more aggressive than ever before last year while walking in just 3.7 percent of his plate appearances. He holds a .309 career on-base percentage, which has the potential to really drag down his value. He’s a good power bat, but not a great one, which is why waiting on names like Franmil Reyes and Max Kepler could have made more sense.
Seth Trachtman’s quick takeaways:
Your first-round pick can set the tone for the rest of the draft, and the advantage of getting a five-category player like Ronald Acuna Jr. helped form the remainder of my draft. I feel very comfortable with my offense in all categories with Acuna as the foundation, and for the most part, very few of my hitters are one-dimensional. My pitching, on the other hand, could cause some anxiety as I rely on bounce back seasons from German Marquez and Chris Archer, as well as comebacks from Miles Mikolas and Michael Pineda later in the year. I was comfortable with that strategy because pitching is usually easier to find in free agency than hitting in mixed leagues if something goes terribly wrong.
Good Value: James Paxton- Adam Ronis took Paxton one pick before I could get my hands on him in Round 15. Paxton could miss at least the first month of the season after back surgery, but the price is right at that point for a pitcher who can produce an elite strikeout rate and add easy wins on a great team. The discount was more than adequate.
Reach: Chris Sale- The draft took place on Tuesday, March 3, the day in which Sale was getting a third opinion on his elbow injury. Prior to Sale’s injury, his ADP was in the 25-30 range, and given the likely downside I didn’t see pick 53 as enough of a discount for the risk. At this point, I would be very surprised if Sale pitched half the season given the diagnosis of a flexor strain and Boston’s status as a team that probably won’t compete in the AL East.
Tim McCullough’s quick takeaways:
Since the first 10 picks of the draft form the foundation of your team, I always try to anticipate the way those first 10 rounds will play out and set a few goals for myself. I wanted to come away with at least one high-inning starting pitcher, two if I could make it happen, with Zack Greinke circled as a favorite target. Unfortunately, I chose Justin Verlander with my first pick (14th overall) and Greinke was sniped by Seth Trachtman early in the fifth round. So, my starting pitcher goals went unmet, an issue that may haunt me unless Verlander miraculously heals faster than anticipated.
The other goals I had for the early rounds worked out a bit better. My stolen base category target was met with draft picks Victor Robles, Whit Merrifield, and Tim Anderson. Plus, Alex Bregman should provide power and some speed with a .280-.290 batting average. Nick Castellanos, Jorge Soler, and Eugenio Suarez rounded out the hitters I drafted among the first 10 picks. If all these guys can stay healthy, I should have a solid power base to work from.
The ninth round began with a run on closers that ended up exhausting my short list of favored targets. Instead, I rolled the dice with two guys I’m expecting to beat rather long odds to surprise everyone. Craig Kimbrel just can’t be as bad as he was last season, so I’m anticipating a bounce back effort from him this season. Red Sox closer Brandon Workman was very effective against both right-handed and left-handed hitters, and I believe he could save a bunch more games this season.
Good Value: Ian Happ has put together an incredibly good spring training stat line so far, batting .481/.500/.815 over 30 plate appearances. He’s a virtual lock to be the Cubs’ starting center fielder whenever the season begins, and D.J. Short drafted him in the 21st round. If Happ has truly returned to the aggressive approach he flashed in 2017, his combination of speed and power could end up being one of the draft’s best bargains.
Reach: Cavan Biggio was drafted in the fourth round (52nd overall), which is around 80 picks earlier than his ADP of 132 in NFBC drafts. While Biggio flashed a nice speed and power combination with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases over 430 PA, he did so with a .234 batting average. Biggio struck out over 28 percent of the time last season, which lowers the floor on his batting average and could cap his OBP upside. I like Biggio to eventually be a big star but not this season.
