Hot Hitter Rundown: July 8

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You should always have the big picture in mind when it comes to your season-long fantasy baseball leagues. Putting too much stock in a small sample size might cause you to make a decision that hurts you in the long run. That said, it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be taking stock of what’s happened in the immediate past. It can be useful when it comes to weekly or especially daily lineup decisions, waiver wire considerations, tracking who might be coming into more playing time, etc.

The Rotoworld Player Rater is a handy tool that’s among the extensive offerings in Season Pass. Each week, I’ll be using the Player Rater to look at the hottest hitters, position by position, over the last week, and providing commentary.

*The following data is based on 5x5 Roto scoring and covers games played from June 24-July 7.

Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized lineups on Yahoo!, DraftKings and FanDuel with our DFS Toolkit!

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Catcher

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Danny Jansen	TOR	C	3.01605	1.85520	-0.50972	2.02378	1.40086	7.79
#2	Christian Vazquez	BOS	C	1.69744	2.43491	-0.50972	1.21659	1.72930	6.57
#3	Chance Sisco	BAL	C	1.69744	1.56535	-0.50972	0.72995	0.74398	4.23
#4	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	C	-0.93978	0.40595	0.76283	1.46956	2.05774	3.76
#5	James McCann	CWS	C	0.37883	0.98565	0.76283	0.41905	0.74398	3.29
#6	Willson Contreras	CHC	C	1.03813	1.56535	-0.50972	0.07532	0.41554	2.58
#7	Roberto Perez	CLE	C	1.03813	0.40595	-0.50972	0.89217	0.41554	2.24
#8	Omar Narvaez	SEA	C	1.03813	0.98565	-0.50972	0.43836	0.08710	2.04
#9	Victor Caratini	CHC	C	1.03813	0.69580	-0.50972	0.48664	-0.24134	1.47
#10	Mitch Garver	MIN	C	0.37883	0.69580	-0.50972	0.45767	0.41554	1.44

MLB's top hitters

Rotoworld examines their top 15 hitters from the mock draft and compare them to the actual top 15 hitters in baseball, which leads to some surprising discoveries.

Better late than never, right? Danny Jansen has suffered through an abysmal season at the plate, but the Blue Jays backstop is suddenly red-hot with a 1.332 OPS, six home runs and 13 RBI across his last 12 contests. He’s even been moved up to the No. 5 spot in the batting order a couple times during that stretch after being stuck hitting ninth all year. Jansen was so bad for so long before this hot streak – he had a .489 OPS over his first 55 games – that it’s tough to fully trust him. That said, the pedigree is obviously there, and his 44.2 percent hard-hit rate is in the 77^th percentile. It’s time to give him another chance … Christian Vazquez entered the season with a .632 OPS and 10 home runs over 999 plate appearances in his career, but he’s sitting on an .852 OPS and 14 dingers after going deep Sunday in the final game before the All-Star break. Vazquez’s hard-hit rate is up in 2019 and he’s also hitting more flyballs, but this mostly seems like a mediocre hitter benefitting greatly from a juiced baseball. The 28-year-old’s fantasy owners certainly aren’t complaining, though. Vazquez has been so good at the dish lately that he served as the Red Sox’ designated hitter for three games in a row and even batted third for them once … Chance Sisco wasn’t included on the Orioles’ Opening Day roster even after a monster spring and it took until June before he was finally summoned to the majors. He’s been an absolute stud since getting the call with a 1.061 OPS and six long balls, including four over his last seven games. Sisco is striking out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances, so his average is a good bet to drop. However, he’s sporting a healthy 43.2 percent flyball and also seems to have locked down the cleanup spot in the Orioles’ batting order …

First Base

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Yuli Gurriel	HOU	1B	4.33466	3.59431	-0.50972	1.93302	2.05774	11.41
#2	Josh Bell	PIT	1B	3.67535	3.88416	-0.50972	-0.56000	2.38618	8.88
#3	Matt Olson	OAK	1B	3.67535	2.43491	-0.50972	0.76279	1.72930	8.09
#4	Jose Abreu	CWS	1B	1.69744	2.14506	-0.50972	2.44862	0.74398	6.53
#5	Freddie Freeman	ATL	1B	0.37883	0.69580	2.03539	0.22788	1.72930	5.07
#6	Christian Walker	ARZ	1B	1.69744	2.72476	-0.50972	-0.08689	0.74398	4.57
#7	Max Muncy	LA	1B	2.35674	2.72476	-0.50972	-1.17602	1.07242	4.47
#8	Pete Alonso	NYM	1B	1.03813	0.69580	0.76283	0.77244	0.74398	4.01
#9	Dominic Smith	NYM	1B	1.69744	-0.17375	0.76283	0.16608	1.07242	3.53
#10	Michael Chavis	BOS	1B	1.03813	1.85520	-0.50972	0.41905	0.41554	3.22

Yuli Gurriel had seemed more likely to lose his job than go on a hot streak, but the latter has occurred with the infielder homering in all five of his games this month so far (six homers total). He’s gone deep nine times and driven in 18 runs across his last 11 tilts, raising his OPS from a lowly .681 to a much more respectable .796. Gurriel is hitting more balls in the air this season, and his flyball rate is all the way up to 51.2 percent during the aforementioned 11-game stretch. I still think he’s more likely to help you in average and not much else … Matt Olson has always hit the ball really hard since coming into the league and that’s been no different this season, as his 17.1 percent barrel rate ranks in the top two percent of the league and his 52.3 percent hard-hit rate ranks in the top one percent of the league. He’s also been even more of a flyball hitter this season with a 51.9 percent flyball rate. Also notable is that Olson is crushing lefties this season (.990 OPS, seven homers in 72 plate appearances) after showing some vulnerability to them in the past … Jose Abreu is nipping at Olson’s heels with a 16.2 percent barrel rate and 50.8 percent hard-hit rate. The 32-year-old doesn’t look to be as good of a bet in the average department as he’s been in the past given that his strikeout rate is up significantly at 23 percent and already-low walk rate is down at 4.9 percent. Abreu is pulling the ball more than ever (42.8 percent), so perhaps he’s begun to sell out a little more for power and it’s hurting his contact rate …

Second Base

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	2B	0.37883	2.14506	-0.50972	2.80201	2.05774	6.87
#2	Adam Frazier	PIT	2B	-0.28047	0.98565	0.76283	2.71125	2.05774	6.24
#3	Jonathan Villar	BAL	2B	-0.28047	0.40595	2.03539	1.22625	1.72930	5.12
#4	Cesar Hernandez	PHI	2B	-0.93978	0.69580	2.03539	1.56033	1.07242	4.42
#5	Cavan Biggio	TOR	2B	-0.28047	1.56535	2.03539	-0.02509	0.74398	4.04
#6	Ozzie Albies	ATL	2B	1.03813	1.27550	-0.50972	1.39811	0.74398	3.95
#7	Rougned Odor	TEX	2B	1.03813	1.85520	-0.50972	0.61989	0.41554	3.42
#8	Marco Hernandez	BOS	2B	-0.28047	-0.46360	0.76283	2.24392	0.74398	3.01
#9	Joey Wendle	TB	2B	-0.93978	-0.17375	3.30795	0.00387	0.41554	2.61
#10	Jason Kipnis	CLE	2B	0.37883	0.40595	0.76283	-0.18731	0.41554	1.78

The Pirates have been playing some good ball lately and Adam Frazier has had a big hand in that, as the second baseman has gone an absurd 18-for-30 (.600) at the plate so far in July. The hot streak has meant a move back up to the leadoff spot, with double play partner Kevin Newman sliding down to the No. 7 hole. I’m not sure the move will last, as Newman hasn’t done anything to deserve a demotion with a .333 average himself so far this month. Frazier offers little in the way of counting stats, although his runs scored potential would obviously be greatly affected by where he ultimately settles in in the batting order … Speaking of batting order greatly affecting a player’s outlook, Cesar Hernandez had seemed like the logical choice to slide into the leadoff spot for the Phillies after Andrew McCutchen (knee) went down, and it did happen for about a week. However, Hernandez slumped in the spot and Scott Kingery got hot, so Kingery moved up to leadoff and Hernandez went back down in the order. Naturally, Hernandez is hitting .363 since getting moved down and Kingery is batting .207 at leadoff, so perhaps another change is in order … Cavan Biggio is actually just 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts over his last five contests, and his elevated strikeout rate (27.5 percent) will make it difficult for him to improve his average much. However, he already has six long balls and five steals for the Blue Jays, and he’s batted cleanup for them in 12 of his last 14 games. Also, while all six of Biggio’s homers have come off righties, the left-handed swinger is hitting .283 versus southpaws …

Third Base

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Rafael Devers	BOS	3B	1.69744	2.72476	-0.50972	2.71125	3.37149	10.00
#2	Yoan Moncada	CWS	3B	1.69744	0.98565	0.76283	1.86157	1.40086	6.71
#3	Evan Longoria	SF	3B	2.35674	1.85520	-0.50972	0.43836	1.72930	5.87
#4	Eduardo Escobar	ARZ	3B	-0.28047	0.98565	0.76283	2.10489	1.40086	4.97
#5	Maikel Franco	PHI	3B	1.69744	1.27550	-0.50972	1.30735	1.07242	4.84
#6	Jeimer Candelario	DET	3B	1.69744	0.69580	0.76283	1.31701	0.08710	4.56
#7	Miguel Sano	MIN	3B	1.69744	1.27550	-0.50972	0.69134	1.40086	4.56
#8	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B	0.37883	0.11610	0.76283	0.70099	1.72930	3.69
#9	Anthony Rendon	WAS	3B	1.03813	1.27550	-0.50972	0.23753	1.07242	3.11
#10	Matt Chapman	OAK	3B	1.03813	1.27550	-0.50972	0.07532	1.07242	2.95

Evan Longoria has been mostly terrible again this season, but he has perked up in the power department in July with five home runs and 10 RBI in six games. There is a bit of a silver lining for Longoria with his Statcast data, as his xBA (.270) and xSLG (.500) are both significantly higher than his actual numbers (.238 and .439, respectively). Longo has also been batting third a fair amount lately with Brandon Belt being tried out in the leadoff spot. Still, while there are some encouraging signs here, Longoria just doesn’t offer a very enticing package for fantasy owners at this point … Jeimer Candelario has split his time between the majors and minors this season but has finally showed some signs of life in his most recent stint with the big club, batting .350/.435/.725 in 11 games. That includes four dingers and seven RBI in his first six games this month. The third baseman is sporting a healthy 57.1 percent hard-hit rate during the 11 contests, and the Tigers appear to have settled on him as their No. 5 hitter. Candelario is still striking out quite a bit even during his hot streak (26.1 percent) and it’s fair to question how much upside the 25-year-old ultimately has. He’s at least worth keeping an eye on again, though … Miguel Sano’s profile doesn’t exactly lend itself to hitting streaks, but he’s put together a modest nine-game hit streak that’s seen him go 12-for-30 with four bombs and nine RBI. He’s seen his OPS jump from .761 all the way up to .896 during that span. Sano’s 38.1 percent strikeout rate this season is high even for him, as if anything he’s been lucky to post a .236 average. However, when he does make contact he often crushes the ball (55.3 percent hard-hit rate) and hits it in the air (48.2 percent flyball rate), so there will be plenty of homers …

Shortstop

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	SS	3.01605	1.56535	4.58050	1.38846	3.04306	13.59
#2	Kevin Newman	PIT	SS	1.69744	1.85520	2.03539	2.08558	1.07242	8.75
#3	Jean Segura	PHI	SS	1.03813	1.56535	2.03539	1.35949	2.38618	8.38
#4	Freddy Galvis	TOR	SS	1.69744	1.56535	2.03539	1.02542	1.07242	7.40
#5	Trea Turner	WAS	SS	0.37883	0.11610	4.58050	0.84389	1.40086	7.32
#6	Javier Baez	CHC	SS	1.03813	1.85520	0.76283	1.19728	1.40086	6.25
#7	Xander Bogaerts	BOS	SS	1.03813	2.72476	0.76283	0.61023	1.07242	6.21
#8	Dansby Swanson	ATL	SS	1.03813	1.56535	0.76283	1.30735	1.07242	5.75
#9	Didi Gregorius	NYY	SS	1.03813	0.40595	0.76283	1.22625	1.72930	5.16
#10	Nick Ahmed	ARZ	SS	1.03813	0.69580	2.03539	0.24719	1.07242	5.09

Fernando Tatis Jr. had his first career multi-homer game on Sunday and is now batting .352/.423/.685 with eight homers, 20 RBI and seven stolen bases in 28 tilts since returning from the injured list. However, while there’s no disputing that he’s a wonderful talent who should continue to be useful in fantasy leagues, there are reasons to expect some regression from the 20-year-old. Most of that regression should come in the batting average department, as Tatis currently has a massive gap between his xBA (.240) and actual average (.327). That’s largely due to an elevated strikeout rate (28.6 percent) and ordinary exit velocity (88.3 mph) … Jean Segura has fallen short of expectations in the stolen base department this season, but he has swiped bags in back-to-back games to bring his total on the year to seven. He’s also already matched his home run total from last year of 10 and done so in nearly 300 fewer plate appearances. Segura’s xBA (.268) suggests that a big jump in average isn’t likely, although it’s worth noting that he’s consistently over-performed in that area the last few years … Freddy Galvis is already up to 15 home runs this season after slugging three so far in July, and he’s either batted first or second in his last five contests after being stuck in the bottom third of the order for much of the season. However, the 29-year-old doesn’t really run anymore and it’s possible he could be looking at a reduced role down the stretch if he’s traded to a contender …

Outfield

Rank	Player	Tm	Pos	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	R	VAL
#1	Lourdes Gurriel	TOR	OF	3.67535	2.14506	0.76283	1.65109	2.71462	10.95
#2	Ronald Acuna	ATL	OF	1.03813	-0.46360	4.58050	1.20694	3.37149	9.73
#3	Brett Gardner	NYY	OF	1.69744	1.56535	2.03539	0.51947	1.40086	7.22
#4	Yasiel Puig	CIN	OF	1.69744	0.69580	2.03539	1.58929	1.07242	7.09
#5	Kevin Kiermaier	TB	OF	0.37883	1.27550	4.58050	0.26650	-0.24134	6.26
#6	Jeff McNeil	NYM	OF	0.37883	1.27550	0.76283	2.34821	1.40086	6.17
#7	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	3.01605	1.85520	-0.50972	0.15643	1.40086	5.92
#8	Ramon Laureano	OAK	OF	1.69744	1.56535	0.76283	-0.00578	1.40086	5.42
#9	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF	1.69744	2.14506	-0.50972	0.87286	1.07242	5.28
#10	Bryce Harper	PHI	OF	1.03813	1.56535	0.76283	0.40940	1.40086	5.18

Lourdes Gurriel was sent down to the minors back in mid-April after he developed the yips at second base and also got off to a slow start at the plate. However, he’s been an absolute monster since returning to the majors and moving to the outfield, putting up a robust .335/.382/.716 batting line with 16 home runs, 30 RBI and 34 runs scored in 40 games. The 25-year-old has settled into the No. 3 spot in the Blue Jays’ batting order. Gurriel almost surely isn’t going to be a .300 hitter unless he improves his plate discipline, but his 46.9 percent hard-hit rate ranks in the 89^th percentile and he’s also hitting the ball in the air (43.4 percent) quite a bit … Ronald Acuna has stolen four bases over the past two weeks to bring his total on the season to 13. In 120 career games as a leadoff hitter, he has swiped 25 bags. In 81 career games in other spots in the order, he’s stolen just four bases. At this point, it’s hard to argue against the point that he’s able to best serve fantasy owners as a leadoff hitter, and he’s surely not being moved anytime soon … Brett Gardner had been headed toward a fourth outfielder role, but another Giancarlo Stanton injury changed that. The veteran went deep in three consecutive games over the weekend and also stole two bases in one of those contests. Gardner has been useless against lefties this season (.584 OPS), and he usually finds himself batting in the lower third of the order. That said, there’s still a little pop and speed here, and getting a piece of that Yankees lineup isn’t a bad idea … Kevin Kiermaier’s biggest accomplishment this season might be playing in 80 games already, which is no small feat for a guy that’s averaged fewer than 100 games played over the last three campaigns. The 29-year-old has typically been useful for fantasy owners when healthy and that’s been no different this season, as he heads into the break with 10 home runs and 17 stolen bases following a two-steal game Sunday …