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Atlanta Braves
2019 Record: 97-65
First Place, NL East
Team ERA: 4.19 (10th in MLB)
Team OPS: .789 (7th in MLB)
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What Went Right
Despite some heavy competition, the Braves won the NL East for the second straight season. Ronald Acuna, Jr. continued to emerge as one of the best young all-around players in the game while first baseman Freddie Freeman set new career-highs with 38 homers and 121 RBI. Josh Donaldson proved to be a great offseason addition, slugging 37 homers with a .900 OPS over 155 games. After shoulder issues got in the way in 2018, Mike Soroka was one of the best starters in the league this year, posting a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts. Ozzie Albies took a nice step forward at the plate, leading the National League with 189 hits. Max Fried flashed some intriguing upside, posting a 4.02 ERA with 173 strikeouts over 165 2/3 innings. Mike Foltynewicz finished the season strong. Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, and Chris Martin proved to be strong trade deadline additions.
What Went Wrong
The Braves entered the year with Josh Donaldson as their lone major offseason addition. Predictably, they ended up needing some extra help on the way to their second straight division title. After establishing himself as the staff ace in 2018, Mike Foltynewicz got off to a disappointing start this year and even spent some time in the minors. Kevin Gausman posted a brutal 6.19 ERA prior to being claimed off waivers by the Reds. Sean Newcomb was demoted by mid-April and pitched as a reliever for the remainder of the season. While Mike Soroka broke out to lead the rotation, the club still had to sign Dallas Keuchel in June. A.J. Minter and Arodys Vizcaino didn’t work out in the closer role and Luke Jackson couldn’t maintain his strong start, which paved the way for the Braves to make a trio of trades at the deadline. Ender Inciarte was limited to 65 games due to back and hamstring injuries. Austin Riley was a sensation upon his call-up in May, but his aggressive approach caught up to him before long and he was a non-factor during the second half due to a partially-torn LCL in his right knee. Dansby Swanson fell apart after the All-Star break while dealing with a foot injury. Even after winning 97 games during the regular season, the Braves were bounced during the NLDS and watched the division rival Nationals walk home with the World Series championship.
Fantasy Slants
**Simply put, Ronald Acuna, Jr. is already a top-three overall player in mixed fantasy leagues. Getting a full season this time around, he delivered a .280/.365/.518 batting line with 41 homers, 101 RBI, 37 steals and 127 runs scored over 156 games. He led the league in steals and run scored and he might have reached the 40-40 mark if he didn’t suffer a left groin strain in late-September. Still, he became the youngest player ever to reach 40 homers and 30 stolen bases in a season. Mel Ott and Eddie Matthews are the only players 21 years old or younger to hit 40 homers in a season. Acuna went 24-for-30 in steals after the All-Star break, an exciting development in terms of his fantasy value moving forward. He actually had a higher strikeout rate this year than he did as a rookie, but there’s still time for progress there. Yes, it’s very possible we haven’t seen the best from him yet. Acuna could very well be the player to unseat Mike Trout at the top of draft boards. And soon.
**After seeing his home run total dip to 23 in 2018, Freddie Freeman thrived in this year’s hitter-friendly environment by batting .295/.389/.549 over 158 games while establishing new career-bests with 38 homers and 121 RBI. He had never hit more than 34 homers or driven in more than 109 runs previously. It’s nice to have Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Ozzie Albies hitting in front of you. His season might have been even better if it wasn’t for bone spurs in his elbow which resulted in two homers and a .754 OPS in September. Freeman had surgery after the Braves’ exit from the playoffs and should be fine for the start of 2020. You can certainly nitpick about whether the power surge is completely sustainable — the baseball might have something to say about that — but he’s been so consistently excellent that he’s a lock to be the second first base-eligible player off the board in drafts next year behind Cody Bellinger.
**It was hard to have any expectations for Mike Soroka after his first stint in the majors was cut short due to a shoulder injury in 2018, but he was immediately the Braves’ best starter after his call-up in mid-April. The 22-year-old allowed one run or fewer in eight straight starts to begin the year, ultimately finishing with a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts. He might not win the NL Cy Young Award or even the NL Rookie of the Year Award, but he was a lifesaver for the Braves. What’s keeping Soroka from fantasy ace status is the lack of strikeouts. He fanned 142 batters in 174 2/3 innings, with a strikeout percentage (20.3 percent) which checked in lower than the likes of Adam Wainwright, Marcus Stroman, and Kyle Hendricks. He’s young enough to adapt, so there’s certainly reason to think he has more coming. But for now, he’s likely to be a fringe top-20 starting pitcher in drafts next year.
**The stock was down somewhat on Ozzie Albies after he posted a .757 OPS in 2018, but he still provided enough across-the-board counting stats to be a top-10 second baseman in drafts this spring. Those who took the plunge witnessed some encouraging growth, as he batted .295/.352/.500 with 24 homers, 86 RBI, 15 steals, and 102 runs scored over 160 games. He found his way to the No. 2 spot by the end of the season, which helped him lead the National League in hits. The 22-year-old was a tad more selective, but he mostly just made more solid contact than he did during his first full season in the majors. In case you hadn’t noticed, second base was weak this year. Like, really weak, so Albies deserves top-five status at the position in 2020. Similar to Acuna, there could be more coming here.
**It’s hard to say Josh Donaldson “settled” for anything when he ended up landing a one-year, $23 million deal with the Braves last offseason, but he should do better for himself this winter. After being limited to just 52 games in 2018, the 33-year-old appeared in 155 games this past season while batting .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers, 94 RBI, and 96 runs scored. His strikeouts have shot up from his MVP-level production, so the batting average upside isn’t what it once was, but he was back to being elite in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage. And of course, he’s still just as patient as ever, so the runs scored should continue to be there. The big question is where he’ll be playing next year, but the Braves intend to make a bid to keep him. He’s still very good, but the age (he’ll be 34 in December) and injury history will likely push him below some of the other established options (Suarez, Bryant) and youngsters on the rise (Moncada, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.).
**Max Fried was the other significant bright spot for the Braves’ rotation, posting a 4.02 ERA with 173 strikeouts and 47 walks in 165 2/3 innings. Adding a slider to his arsenal, the southpaw was brilliant after moving into the rotation in early April before coming down to Earth around midseason. This included a brief stint on the injured list due to a blister. However, he rebounded in August and September while adding six wins to his ledger. He finished at 17 wins, just one behind league-leader Stephen Strasburg. Yes, wins are fickle, but they are a category in standard leagues. You did well for yourself if you snagged Fried off the waiver wire. With his peripherals and penchant for ground balls, this breakout appears sustainable.
**The Braves made a series of trades to address their bullpen before July’s deadline, with the assumption being that Shane Greene would take over the closer role. However, Greene struggled out of the gate while blowing his first two save chances, paving the way for Mark Melancon — acquired from the Giants — to rack up 11 saves over the final two months. He was the best version of himself in quite some time, posting a 3.86 ERA with 24 strikeouts and just two walks over 21 innings. He’s under contact for 2020, so he’s earned himself a shot to begin 2020 with the closer role, assuming his health cooperates. Greene — under team control for one more year — is still around if Melancon stumbles.
Key Free Agents: Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, Tyler Flowers (2020 option), Nick Markakis (2020 option), Julio Teheran (2020 option), Chris Martin
Team Needs: Bringing back Donaldson should be the top priority. If the Braves fail to do so, they should be in the market for another big bat, either at third base or in the outfield. Depending on what happens with Tyler Flowers, catcher could also be an area they explore. With the youth in their rotation, the Braves should add an insurance policy for their rotation. Gerrit Cole would be ideal, but Zack Wheeler (a Georgia native) also makes sense. A reunion with Dallas Keuchel could also serve this purpose.
