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Early 2027 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: How far do Paul Skenes and Hunter Brown fall?

The World Series is about to begin, and we’re being treated to a doozy of a series between the Brewers and the Rays. However, for the 28 other teams, they are turning their attention to 2027, so we’ll join them in that for a bit with some starting pitcher rankings for next season.

This is now my fourth year publishing my starting pitcher rankings and my second year doing it this early. In many ways, I like doing a first pass at rankings this year. At this point, it’s hard to overthink. Most players aren’t playing games or posting videos of new pitches, so there is nothing to get geeked about. Instead, these rankings are more “gut feel” rankings based on how I feel about all of these pitchers at the end of the season. While I tried not to get too in the weeds about stats, I did look back at the general profile that allowed a pitcher to finish among the top 30 overall starters in recent years, and tried to prioritize pitchers who fit that profile, which mostly meant elevating pitchers who get swings and misses, and penalizing pitchers who don’t seem like a good bet for a full season of innings.

As always, the pitchers are split into tiers based on their skillset or what they’ll provide your fantasy team. The tiers themselves are more important than the rankings inside the tiers, so I wouldn’t split hairs over a few spots in the rankings. I’ve also ranked these pitchers as if I’m doing a 12-team league, so safe but boring low-end starters take a hit in value, etc. I won’t have really long write-ups here, but I’ll be back with updated rankings after the new year, where we can get a little more into the nitty-gritty of the rankings.

OK? Ok, so let’s get started.

2027 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

RankPlayerTeamInjured Season?Pocket/Grouping

Aces

1Jacob MisiorowskiMILNoAces
2Tarik SkubalFree AgentNoAces
3Cam SchlittlerNYYNoAces
4Cristopher SánchezPHINoAces
5Yoshinobu YamamotoLADNoAces

There’s not much to discuss about these aces. All five posted a K-BB% of at least 21%, and four of them carried a Stuff+ of 113 or higher. They seem like the clear top five starters in baseball, if they can remain healthy.

Fringe Young Aces

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
6Chase BurnsCINNoYoung power arms
7Payton TolleBOSNoYoung power arms
8Logan GilbertSEANoStrikeout guys
9Paul SkenesPITNo - Maybe?Young power arms

There’s an argument to be made for all of these guys being aces. Obviously, Paul Skenes is the key name because he was an ace coming into last season and then posted a
3.82 ERA with a 3.34 SIERA. His Stuff+ also fell from 110 in 2025 to 99 this past season, and he didn’t look fully healthy. Still, he’s one year removed from a 1.97 ERA over 187 IP and was the best young arm in baseball. It’s hard to completely ignore 2024 and 2025. All four of these guys finished with a K-BB% between 20% and 22%, and all are power-first pitchers. Chase Burns threw 154.1 IP with a 2.86 ERA, 3.46 SIERA, 14.4% SwStr%, and 112 Stuff+, and I think that innings number will rise, which will give him even more value. Payton Tolle’s first full season was 148.2 IP with a 3.03 ERA, 21.7% K-BB, and 115 Stuff+. Like Burns, I also expect his innings to rise and his value to tick up.

Aces With Injury Risk

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
10Chris SaleATLNo (Previous risk)Elite vets, health risk
11Garrett CrochetBOSYesElite vets, health risk
12Jacob deGromTEXNo (Previous risk)Elite vets, health risk
13Zack WheelerPHIYesElite vets, health risk
14Bryan WooSEANoWeak contact and durability
15Jesús LuzardoPHINoElite vets, health risk
16Dylan CeaseTORYesElite vets, health risk

If you wanted to take any of these starters over the guys in the tier above, that wouldn’t be crazy. They’re not down in this tier because they’re worse pitchers; they’re in this tier because they carry more injury risk than the pitchers in the tier above, and injury risk with your ace is a serious gamble. Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom have been healthy the last two years, but have a lengthy injury history, while Garrett Crochet missed essentially the entire year with an injury, and Dylan Cease saw his velocity plummet at the end of the season and then ended the year on the IL with a shoulder injury. You draft this group for ace outcomes at a price that already reflects the innings risk.

Ace Upside - Limited Track Record

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
17Drew RasmussenTBRNo (Previous Risk)WHIP guys
18Cade CavalliWSNComing off injuryRising arms, unproven
19Braxton AshcraftPITNoRising arms, unproven
20Logan HendersonMILComing off injuryRising arms, unproven
21Gavin WilliamsCLENoRising arms, unproven

Almost everyone here has one strong season to point to, which is why the tier name fits. Of course, Drew Rasmussen has more than one good season, but he also has had three elbow surgeries and has only pitched over 150 innings once in his MLB career. That prevents me from drafting him where I think his talent should have him because he carries so much extra risk. Cade Cavalli and Logan Henderson also have injury track records that make me a little bit concerned about their durability, and Cavalli’s breakout 2026 season was so closely tied to a velocity increase that I’m just not sure if I want to fully ignore the first three months of the season for him, which were pretty inconsistent. This feels like a fair hedge on the bets for Cavalli. Gavin Williams arguably has the best skills of the group (2.95 SIERA, 25.1% K-BB, 15% SwStr%), but he also had a 3.76 ERA because he is prone to losing his command for an inning in basically every outing.

High-End SP2 Without Elite K%

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
22Parker MessickCLENoWeak contact and durability
23Max FriedNYYYesWeak contact and durability
24Griffin JaxTBRNoWeak contact and durability
25Hunter BrownHOUYesWeak contact and durability

These four are valuable because of ERA and WHIP, not big strikeout totals. Parker Messick had moments where he looked like a fantasy ace, but he has just a 97 Stuff+ and his strikeout rate is not the same as the guys in the tier above. Max Fried had another solid season, but his fantasy finishes over the last four years have been super inconsistent because he seems to always miss time with an injury. Hunter Brown was clearly hurt and not pitching well this season, but his strikeout numbers also fell off a cliff in the second half of last season, so I’m not sure we can really rely on him for strikeouts. Griffin Jax is an interesting bet because he only moved into the rotation in the middle of the season, but he had 103.1 innings as a starter and registered a 3.14 ERA, 18.8% K-BB, and 13.6% SwStr%. That’s pretty damn good.

There’s an Ace in There Somewhere

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
26Joe RyanMINYesStrikeout guys
27Jared JonesPITYesRising arms, unproven
28Reid DetmersLAANoRising arms, unproven
29Blake SnellLADYes Missed most of 2026
30Shohei OhtaniLADYes Strikeout, innings concerns
31Carlos RodónNYYYesPower arms, command concern
32Nolan McLeanNYMNoYoung power arms
33Eury PérezMIANoPower arms, command concern
34Emmet SheehanLADNoRising arms, unproven

This tier is a bet on ceiling, and the group has the skills to justify it, but not the track record of consistent production. Obviously, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, and Carlos Rodon are all in here because of injury concerns that prevent me from giving them enough innings to have them qualify as an ace. Reid Detmers finally had his breakout year in 185.0 innings with a 3.36 ERA and 22.0% K-BB, and Jared Jones shook the rust after his return from injury and pitched 101.2 innings with a 3.28 SIERA and 22.2% K-BB. He really came on at the end of the season. We also still see enough strikeout upside and raw, natural ability from Nolan McLean, Eury Perez, and Emmet Sheehan to have them here. I do worry that McLean had just a 9.6% swinging strike rate, and there may not be as much strikeout upside as people want to believe. This is the range that Misiorowski and Schlittler were going last year, and somebody in here is going to make that jump.

No Longer Aces, But Safe Floor

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
35Gerrit ColeNYYNoStrikeout guys
36Sonny GrayBOSNoContact managers, low strikeout
37Shota ImanagaFree AgentNoWHIP guys
38Logan WebbSFGNoContact managers, low strikeout
39Freddy PeraltaFree AgentNoWeak contact and durability
40Sandy AlcantaraMIANoWeak contact and durability

The pitchers here have a long record of quality, and the case for them is volume and ratios. Sandy Alcantara is probably the weakest of the bunch, but he threw 211 innings this season, and we’re back to getting that bulk production from him; a 4.24 SIERA is just not ideal. Freddy Peralta has turned his season around with the Rays, and we’ve seen him be a good starting pitcher for too long to not assume he can continue to pitch well in 2027.

Fun Upside With Volatility

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
41Ian SeymourTBRNoStrikeout guys
42Andrew PainterPHINoStrikeout guys
43Christian ScottNYMNoPower arms, command concern
44Kade AndersonSEANoTop prospects, clear 2027 job
45Kaima TairaIntl (NPB)NoInternational, unproven
46Walbert UreñaLAANoLow-strikeout, command concern

The appeal here is strikeout ability, and the risk is large, which is why they’re all down in this range. Ian Seymour flashed the best MLB skills in the tier. In 77 innings as a starter this season, he posted a 2.84 SIERA, 26.7% K-BB, and 14.4% SwStr%. I know the 4.44 ERA wasn’t tremendous, but I believe in the underlying skill set here. Andrew Painter made some key pitch mix changes in the second half of the season that I really like, but, much like Cavalli, his ability to hold velocity will be crucial. Walbert Ureña is confusing. He throws hard and has a nasty changeup plus a sweeper that flashed the ability to miss bats this season. You watch him pitch, and you see a potential stud. But his four-seamer is pretty average, and his 4.14 SIERA and 12.3% K-BB% say he got lucky this season.

The two biggest wild cards here are Kade Anderson and Kaima Taira. Anderson was the top pitching prospect in baseball, but he relies on command and movement over velocity and raw stuff, so it remains to be seen how that translates at the big league level. Taira is almost certain to come over from Japan this offseason after pitching to a 1.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 134 K and 44 BB over 139 IP in NPB this year. We’ve heard he touches 100 mph, has an eight-pitch mix, and could be the best pitching free agent this offseason, other than Skubal.

Boring But It Can Work

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
47Michael KingFANoWeak contact
48Kevin GausmanFree AgentNoWeak contact and durability
49Aaron NolaPHINoCommand-first, strikeout upside
50George KirbySEANoCommand-first, strikeout upside

All of these guys had pretty gross ERAs but underlying metrics that say they pitched better than the results. We just have to decide if we believe that or not. Aaron Nola made some pitch mix changes in the second half (limiting elevated fastballs) that helped him to produce better results, but George Kirby simply never got it going this year. The draft case for each of these guys is innings, a discounted price based on ERA over SIERA, and a decent chance of a bounce-back, with Kevin Gausman the safest of the three, depending on where he signs.

Hurt But Should Be Healthy Opening Day

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
51Tyler GlasnowLADYes Ace upside, coming off injury
52Nathan EovaldiFAYes Strikeout, innings concerns
53Shane McClanahanTBRYes Strikeout, innings concerns
54Max MeyerMIAYes Strikeout, innings concerns
55Ryan WeathersNYYYesStrikeout, innings concerns
56Ryan PepiotTBRYes Missed most of 2026
57Pablo LópezMINYes Ace upside, coming off injury
58Nick PivettaSDPYesMissed most of 2026
59Corbin BurnesARIYesAce upside, coming off injury
60Justin SteeleCHCYes Missed most of 2026

This is another tier of injuries. These guys ended the season hurt or were hurt for basically the entire year. However, all of them seem likely to begin the year healthy and on the mound for their respective teams. You’re drafting them if the injury discount leaves a bigger gap than the missed time justifies.

Is There a Next Step?

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
61Jackson JobeDETNoStrikeout guys
62Didier FuentesATLNoStrikeout guys
63Trey YesavageTORNoPower arms, command concern
64Roki SasakiLADNoYoung power arms
65Taj BradleyMINNoPower arms, command concern
66Sean BurkeCHWNoStrikeout guys
67Nick LodoloCINYes Strikeout, innings concerns
68River RyanDETNoTop prospects, clear 2027 job
69Bubba ChandlerPITNoProspects, command concern

These pitchers have flashed the physical tools, but the consistent results are not there yet. Roki Sasaki, Taj Bradley, and Sean Burke all had stretches in 2026 where they showed clear improvement from 2025. But those stretches didn’t last. Can we count of them in 2027? Trey Yesavage and Jackson Jobe both spent most of the year recovering from injury, but they are top pitching prospects who have shown upside when on the mound. Didier Fuentes was lights out in relief for Atlanta and should get a chance to start, and River Ryan figures to be in the rotation for the Tigers after being the headliner in the Skubal deal. He has flashed real ability before, but he needs to stay healthy. Bubba Chandler was once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but he had an up-and-down rookie year and hasn’t quite shown the upside we thought with a 4.54 ERA, 4.86 SIERA, 8.4% K-BB, and 100.6 Stuff+. There could be more in the tank though.

More About Command or Weak Contact

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
70Trevor RogersFANoCommand-first, strikeout upside
71Troy MeltonDETNoWHIP guys
72Sean ManaeaNYMNoCommand-first, strikeout upside
73Framber ValdezDETNoWeak contact and durability
74Foster GriffinFANoContact managers, low strikeout
75Emerson HancockSEANoCommand-first, strikeout upside
76Jake BennettBOSNoCommand-first, strikeout upside
77Tyler MahleFANoWHIP guys
78Ranger SuarezBOSNoContact managers, low strikeout
79Michael WachaKCRNoContact managers, low strikeout
80Nick MartinezFANoWeak contact and durability
81Eduardo RodriguezARINoWeak contact and durability
82Clay HolmesFAYesWeak contact and durability

These pitchers win with walks and contact, not strikeouts, and many have a Stuff+ under 100 (Tyler Mahle 88, Jake Bennett 93, Ranger Suarez 94). Some of these guys have been top 30 pitchers before and potentially could again, but the ceiling just doesn’t feel overly high. This tier also has two All-Stars that probably pitched above their heads. Nick Martinez pitched 180 innings as a starter with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 3.6% walk rate, but his 4.63 SIERA, 11.5% K-BB, and 8.2% SwStr% suggest that those results outpaced his skills. Same goes for Eduardo Rodriguez, who pitched 189.2 innings with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, but a 4.62 SIERA, 10.3% K-BB, and 92 Stuff+. I would draft this group for innings and WHIP, especially in deeper formats.

Inconsistent But Has Flashed

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
83Kyle BradishBALNo (Kinda)Strikeout, innings concerns
84Robbie RayFANoStrikeouts, command concern
85Robert GasserMILNoContact managers, low strikeout
86MacKenzie GoreTEXNoStrikeouts, command concern
87José SorianoTORNoLow-strikeout, command concern
88Joey CantilloCLENoLow-strikeout, command concern
89Will WarrenNYYNoYoung power arms
99Tanner BibeeCLENoWeak contact and durability
91Connelly EarlyWASYes Strikeout, innings concerns
92Bryce MillerSEAYes Strikeout guys
93Noah CameronKCRNoWHIP guys
94Andrew AbbottCINNoContact managers, low strikeout

Every pitcher here has had a good stretch, but none has strung together a full good year. Some of that is due to injury (Bryce Miller and Connelly Early), but there is just a lot of volatility in this group. Even pitchers that have had good full seasons, like Andrew Abbott, have seemingly never had the profile to back up that success. I do like guys like Early, Miller, Joey Cantillo, or MacKenzie Gore as late-round flyers just in case they can ever put it together or stay healthy.

Could be a Stud, Could be Demoted

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
95Ryan SloanSEANoDepth prospects, unproven
96Hagen SmithCHWNoProspects, command concern
97Brandon SproatMILNoStrikeouts, command concern
98Connor PrielippMINNoStrikeout guys
99Shane DrohanMILNoStrikeout guys
100Reese OlsonDETYesStrikeout guys
101Jack LeiterTEXYesStrikeouts, command concern
102Zebby MatthewsMINNoStrikeout guys

This tier is about uncertainty, and it mixes prospects with young arms who have not settled in. Hagen Smith may be the most interesting. He made his MLB debut as a reliever with a 1.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 37.4% K, 23.4% K-BB, 2.97 SIERA, 14.6% SwStr%, and 108 Stuff+ over 27.1 IP. However, his Triple-A stats were not as good, and he has some major command concerns. Connor Prielipp also intrigued me in his 116.2 innings, and while the surface-level results aren’t great, a 4.02 SIERA and 15.1% K-BB support the upside. Treat this tier as late-round upside.

Low Upside But a Safe Floor

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
103Shane BazBALNoWeak contact and durability
104Merrill KellyARINoContact managers, low strikeout
105Matthew BoydCHCNoWHIP guys
106Kyle LeahySTLNoContact managers, low strikeout
107Michael SorokaFree AgentNoWHIP guys
108Peter LambertHOUNoStrikeout guys
109Justin WrobleskiLADNoContact managers, low strikeout
110Brandon PfaadtARINoContact managers, low strikeout
111Dean KremerMINNoCommand-first, strikeout upside
112Ryne NelsonARINoStrikeout guys
113Cody BradfordTEXNoWHIP guys
114Casey MizeFree AgentNoCommand-first, strikeout upside
115Andre PallanteSTLNoContact managers, low strikeout

Most of these pitchers will not win you a league, but they are likely to produce solid ratios and good innings totals. Most of these guys feel like streamers or solid targets in 15-team leagues and draft-and-hold formats.

No Idea What You Are

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
116Luis CastilloCHWNoCommand-first, strikeout upside
117Dustin MayFANoStrikeout guys
118Anthony KayCHWNoYoung power arms
119Tatsuya ImaiHOUNoStrikeout guys
120Landen RouppSFGNoLow-strikeout, command concern
121Matthew LiberatoreSTLNoWeak contact and durability
122Jacob LopezATHNoLow-strikeout, command concern
123Janson JunkMIANoCommand-first, strikeout upside
124Brayan BelloBOSNoWeak contact and durability
125Cristian JavierHOUNoStrikeout, innings concerns

I think the title of this group kind of says it all. I have no idea what to make of most of these guys. Matthew Liberatore had an intriguing stretch in the second half. Janson Junk has a deep pitch mix and a solid Stuff+ grade. Brayan Bello looked like an entirely different pitcher when he moved into the bulk reliever role. I was high on Landen Roupp for much of last year, but the results never came. Maybe we need to see something in spring from this group, or maybe we avoid.

Are You Healthy? I’m Interested If Yes

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
126Kyle HarrisonMILYes Strikeout, innings concerns
127Cade HortonCHCYes Missed most of 2026
128Kris BubicFAYes Missed most of 2026
129Edward CabreraCHCYes Strikeout, innings concerns
130Jack FlahertyFAYes Flagged, but pitched in 2026
131Clarke SchmidtNYYYes Missed most of 2026
132Luis GilNYYYes Missed most of 2026
133Tylor MegillNYMYes Missed most of 2026
134Joe MusgroveSDPYes Missed most of 2026
135AJ Smith-ShawverATLYesStrikeout, innings concerns

All ten of these arms have an injury discount, and the question heading into your fantasy drafts is whether the production will be there when they return. As of now, I can’t draft any of them as more than a late-round dart throw.

Young Arms But Might Have Rotation Spots

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
136Gage JumpATHNoPower arms, command concern
137Quinn MathewsSTLNoUnclassified
138David SandlinCHWNoProspects, command concern
139Jonah TongNYMNoProspects, command concern
140George KlassenLAANoProspects, command concern
141Zac ThorntonNYMNoWHIP guys
142Drew ThorpeCHWYesMissed most of 2026
143Noah SchultzCHWNoYoung power arms
144Blade TidwellSFGNoRising arms, unproven
145J.T. GinnATHNoLow-strikeout, command concern

Maybe I’m too low on these arms, but I don’t see a lot of security in any of them. All of them have a legit case to be in their team’s starting rotation, but I also see a world where they begin the year in Triple-A. Gage Jump and J.T. Ginn also get dinged for their brutal home park.

Probably Not Healthy to Begin

Injured Season?Pocket/Grouping
146Spencer SchwellenbachATLYesMissed most of 2026
147Cole RagansKCRYesMissed most of 2026
148Hunter GreeneCINYes Missed most of 2026
150David FestaMINYes Missed most of 2026
151DJ HerzWSNYes Missed most of 2026
152Nestor CortesFree AgentYesMissed most of 2026
153Reynaldo LópezATLYesMissed most of 2026
154Bowden FrancisTORYesMissed most of 2026
155Hurston WaldrepATLYesMissed most of 2026
156Ben BrownCHCYes Missed most of 2026
157Brandon WalterHOUYes Missed most of 2026
158Zach EflinBALYes Missed most of 2026
160Jordan MontgomeryFree AgentYes Missed most of 2026
161Spencer StriderATLYesMissed most of 2026

We end with a tier of guys who we feel confident either won’t begin the year healthy or have missed so much time that it’s hard to know what to get from them. I wanted to list them here because the offseason could change how we rank them, but these are not really names to be targeting in your drafts.