Roki Sasaki yields three runs in no-decision

It’s the fourth straight outing in which he’s allowed exactly two runs, and he has a 2.31 ERA over his last six starts. Sasaki left with a two-run led tonight, but since it didn’t hold up, he remains 5-5 through 22 starts. He’ll likely pitch in Atlanta next week, making him a mediocre play in mixed leagues.

Sasaki issued five walks, including three in the Brewers’ two-run fourth inning, and gave up 13 hard-hit balls on the night, but he did finish rather strong. This makes five straight starts in which he’s allowed two runs or fewer and gotten at least 16 outs. He’ll look to keep that going in Coors Field against the Rockies next week.

Sasaki is three outs shy of having turned in five quality starts in a row; he allowed one unearned run in 5 2/3 innings on July 17 and two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings last time out. Still, he’s allowed a total of eight earned runs in 30 innings in his last five starts. He still needs to prove he can keep it going, but this is the pitcher the Dodgers thought they were signing two years ago. He’ll face the Brewers next week.

Sasaki’s splitter did most of the work tonight. He threw it 37 times in the 90-pitch outing and got 10 whiffs and four strikeouts with it. Meanwhile, it produced no hits or hard-hit balls the seven times it was put into play. Sasaki remains rather difficult to trust, but this makes four solid outings in a row, and with arguably baseball’s best team backing him, he’s not a bad play in shallow leagues at the moment. He’ll likely pitch in Chicago against the Cubs next Wednesday, though it’s possible he could be pushed to Friday in Arizona instead.

This was one of those starts where you could see how sky-high Sasaki’s potential still is. He was back to buzzing 99 and 100 mph fastballs over the first few innings and commanded it exceptionally well on the edges of the plate. That set up his splitter to terrorize the Mets hitters. In total, it forced 15 whiffs – by far the most it has in a single game so far this season – and a nearly 50% chase rate. It was simply diabolical and so effective that it morphed into his primary pitch during his second and third trips around the Mets’ lineup. It was also the first time in his career that he completed seven innings against a team that isn’t the Angels. This is now back-to-back lights out starts by Sasaki out of the All-Star break and it might finally be time to take him seriously. Next up is a matchup against the Mariners at home.

This was a very encouraging start to the second half for Sasaki. First off, he was pumping gas. His fastball averaged a shade over 100 mph and in total, he threw 21 pitches in triple digits and topped out at 102 mph. In his career to date before this start, he’d never topped 101 mph and had only thrown 15 pitches at or above 100 mph. His command was also much better than usual. There were a few more fastballs that caught corners and his splitter was consistently diving low and below the plate. Similarly, his slider was abnormally lethal. When Sasaki has his whole repertoire working like he did here, he’s a scary pitcher. The problem is that when something goes wrong, he struggles to get over that hump. That’s how he’s wound up with a 4.98 ERA through 86 2/3 innings on the season with this kind of stuff. The roller coaster will continue next Friday against the Mets.

He’ll be followed by Emmet Sheehan on Saturday and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Sunday. The Dodgers have not announced when Shohei Ohtani will return to the rotation. That makes it likely that it’ll be Justin Wrobleski and Eric Lauer in some order for the first two games against the Phillies in Philadelphia to open next week.

The Dodger offense let him off the hook, but Sasaki put the team in quite a hole tonight. He gave up homers to Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth and threw 88 pitches to get his nine outs. After a nice May, Sasaki has given up 19 runs over 17 innings in his last four starts, taking his ERA from 4.03 to 5.40. It’s probably lucky for him that River Ryan is back on the shelf in Triple-A with a hamstring issue. He’s due to make his final start before the break Wednesday at home against the Rockies.

Ohtani has been granted a reprieve from facing the Athletics in the certifiable hitter’s paradise that is Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento during Wednesday afternoon’s series finale. It’ll be a bullpen game for the Dodgers instead. The 31-year-old generational talent will take the ball instead on Friday against the division-rival Padres back in Los Angeles after Roki Sasaki works the series opener on Thursday evening.

Sasaki allowed just three hard-hit balls tonight, but he walked five, and one of the hard-hit balls was a three-run homer from Ty France in the second. It was the fourth homer Sasaki has allowed in three starts, so even though his K/BB is getting better, his ERA has jumped from 4.03 three weeks ago to 4.88 now. There’s still hope that things will eventually come together here, especially with Sasaki’s velocity creeping up, but there’s not much reason to use him in the short term. He’ll likely face the Padres again next weekend.