How Successful Are Rookies: 2019 Edition

With the 2019 NBA Draft rapidly approaching, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the success rate of past draft classes dating back to the 2003-04 season. In this column, I will be focusing primarily on lottery picks, as we typically don’t see much production outside that range.[[ad:athena]]

Some things of note:

I found that over the past 16 years, the No. 1 overall selection has put together a quality fantasy season 12 out of 16 times (although two of those players had delayed debuts).

The curse of the No. 2 pick has held true 10 times over the past 16 years.

The third overall selection has had a meaningful fantasy season 11 times over the past 16 years (although Joel Embiid’s debut took two years to get to).

Only eight times has a player drafted outside of the top-10 put up a relevant fantasy season, although it’s a trend that’s been happening more frequently lately, with five of these names being added to the list over the past two years: Josh Smith, Klay Thompson, Malcolm Brogdon, Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Kuzma, John Collins, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mitchell Robinson

Over the past 16 years, only two players have been able to produce first-round value during their rookie season: Stephen Curry and Karl-Anthony Towns.

While second-round picks can certainly establish themselves later in their careers, only twice over the past 16 years has a player from the second round produced a meaningful fantasy season – Malcolm Brogdon and Mitchell Robinson.

Before we delve into the data, I want to define the term “bust.” When I’m using the word bust in this column, it doesn’t necessarily denote that this selection was a bust on the long-term, just that during their rookie year they either didn’t play due to injury or their numbers that specific year weren’t anything special. In order to earn the bust moniker, said player needed to be a top-3 overall selection or someone with a high ADP.

For the “performers,” they simply needed to rank within the top-150 in 9-cat leagues.

2019 NBA Draft Preview

Rotoworld previews the 2019 NBA Draft by breaking down all the top prospects available, and where each will land.

The Fabled 2003 Draft Class

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	CLE	LeBron James	St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)
2	DET	Darko Milicic	Serbia
3	DEN	Carmelo Anthony	Syracuse
4	TOR	Chris Bosh	Georgia Tech
5	MIA	Dwyane Wade	Marquette
6	LAC	Chris Kaman	Central Michigan
7	CHI	Kirk Hinrich	Kansas
8	MIL	T.J. Ford	Texas
9	NYK	Mike Sweetney	Georgetown
10	WAS	Jarvis Hayes	Georgia
11	GSW	Mickael Pietrus	France
12	SEA	Nick Collison	Kansas
13	MEM	Marcus Banks	UNLV
14	SEA	Luke Ridnour	Oregon
15	ORL	Reece Gaines	Louisville
16	BOS	Troy Bell	Boston College
17	PHO	Zarko Cabarkapa	Serbia
18	NOH	David West	Xavier
19	UTA	Sasha Pavlovic	Montenegro
20	BOS	Dahntay Jones	Duke
21	ATL	Boris Diaw	France
22	NJN	Zoran Planinic	Croatia
23	POR	Travis Outlaw	Starkville HS (MS)
24	LAL	Brian Cook	Illinois
25	DET	Carlos Delfino	Argentina
26	MIN	Ndudi Ebi	Westbury Christian School (Houston)
27	MEM	Kendrick Perkins	Ozen HS (TX)
28	SAS	Leandro Barbosa	Brazil
29	DAL	Josh Howard	Wake Forest

Notable Second-Rounders: Zaza Pachulia (No. 42, ORL), Kyle Korver (No. 51, NJ)

Performers

LeBron James: 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.5 turnovers (41.7 FG, 75.4 FT)
79 games played – 4^th round value

Carmelo Anthony: 21.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.0 turnovers (42.6 FG, 77.7 FT)
82 games played – 7^th round value

Chris Bosh: 11.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 1.4 turnovers (45.9 FG, 70.1 FT)
75 games played – 9^th round value

Dwyane Wade: 16.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks 3.2 turnovers (46.5 FG, 74.7 FT)
61 games played – 8^th round value

BUSTED

Darko Milicic: 1.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.4 blocks (26.2 FG, 58.3 FT)
34 games played

2004 Draft Class

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	ORL	Dwight Howard	Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy
2	CHA	Emeka Okafor	Connecticut
3	CHI	Ben Gordon	Connecticut
4	LAC	Shaun Livingston	Peoria Central HS (IL)
5	WAS	Devin Harris	Wisconsin
6	ATL	Josh Childress	Stanford
7	PHO	Luol Deng	Duke
8	TOR	Rafael Araujo	Brigham Young
9	PHI	Andre Iguodala	Arizona
10	CLE	Luke Jackson	Oregon
11	GSW	Andris Biedrins	Latvia
12	SEA	Robert Swift	Bakersfield HS (CA)
13	POR	Sebastian Telfair	Lincoln HS (Brooklyn, NY)
14	UTA	Kris Humphries	Minnesota
15	BOS	Al Jefferson	Prentiss HS (MS)
16	UTA	Kirk Snyder	University of Nevada, Reno
17	ATL	Josh Smith	Oak Hill Academy (VA)
18	NOH	J.R. Smith	St. Benedict’s Preparatory School (NJ)
19	MIA	Dorell Wright	Leuzinger HS (CA)
20	DEN	Jameer Nelson	St. Joseph’s
21	UTA	Pavel Podkolzin	Russia
22	NJN	Viktor Khryapa	Ukraine
23	POR	Sergei Monia	Russia
24	BOS	Delonte West	St. Joseph’s
25	BOS	Tony Allen	Oklahoma State
26	SAC	Kevin Martin	Western Carolina
27	LAL	Sasha Vujacic	Slovenia
28	SAS	Beno Udrih	Slovenia
29	IND	David Harrison	Colorado

Notable Second-Rounders: Anderson Varejao (No. 30, CLE), Trevor Ariza (No. 43, NYK)

Performers

Dwight Howard: 12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 2.0 turnovers (52.0 FG, 67.1 FT)
82 games played – 4^th round value (punting FT)

Emeka Okafor: 15.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.7 turnovers (44.7 FG, 60.9 FT)
73 games played – 5^th round value (punting FT)

Specialists

Ben Gordon: 15.1 points, 2.0 assists, 1.6 three-pointers, 2.3 turnovers (41.1 FG, 86.3 FT)
82 games played – 15^th round value

Andre Iguodala: 9.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.7 turnovers (49.3 FG, 74.3 FT)
82 games played – 5^th round value

Josh Smith: 9.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (45.5 FG, 68.8 FT)
74 games played – 9^th round value

2005 Draft Class

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	MIL	Andrew Bogut	Utah
2	ATL	Marvin Williams	North Carolina
3	UTA	Deron Williams	Illinois
4	NOH	Chris Paul	Wake Forest
5	CHA	Raymond Felton	North Carolina
6	POR	Martell Webster	Seattle Preparatory School
7	TOR	Charlie Villanueva	Connecticut
8	NYK	Channing Frye	Arizona
9	GSW	Ike Diogu	Arizona State
10	LAL	Andrew Bynum	St. Joseph HS (NJ)
11	ORL	Fran Vasquez	Spain
12	LAC	Yaroslav Korolev	Russia
13	CHA	Sean May	North Carolina
14	MIN	Rashad McCants	North Carolina
15	NJN	Antoine Wright	Texas A&M
16	TOR	Joey Graham	Oklahoma State
17	IND	Danny Granger	New Mexico
18	BOS	Gerald Green	Gulf Shores Academy (Houston)
19	MEM	Hakim Warrick	Syracuse
20	DEN	Julius Hodge	North Carolina State
21	PHO	Nate Robinson	Washington
22	DEN	Jarrett Jack	Georgia Tech
23	SAC	Francisco Garcia	Louisville
24	HOU	Luther Head	Illinois
25	SEA	Johan Petro	France
26	DET	Jason Maxiell	Cincinnati
27	POR	Linas Kleiza	Missouri
28	SAS	Ian Mahinmi	France
29	MIA	Wayne Simien	Kansas
30	NYK	David Lee	Florida

Notable Second-Rounders: C.J. Miles (No. 34, UTA), Ersan Ilyasova (No. 36, MIL), Monta Ellis (No. 40, GSW), Marcin Gortat (No. 57, PHO)

Performers

Chris Paul: 16.1 points, 7.8 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.3 turnovers (43.0 FG, 84.7 FT)
78 games played – 2^nd round value

Raymond Felton: 11.9 points, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.2 triples, 2.3 turnovers (39.1 FG, 72.8 FT)

80 games played – 12^th round value

Andrew Bogut: 9.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, (53.3 FG, 62.9 FT)
82 games played – 9^th round value

BUSTED

Marvin Williams: 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 turnovers (44.3 FG, 74.7 FT)
79 games played

2006 Draft Class

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	TOR	Andrea Bargnani	Italy
2	CHI	LaMarcus Aldridge	Texas
3	CHA	Adam Morrison	Gonzaga
4	POR	Tyrus Thomas	Louisiana State
5	ATL	Shelden Williams	Duke
6	MIN	Brandon Roy	Washington
7	BOS	Randy Foye	Villanova
8	HOU	Rudy Gay	Connecticut
9	GSW	Patrick O’Bryant	Bradley
10	SEA	Mouhamed Sene	Senegal
11	ORL	J.J. Redick	Duke
12	NOK	Hilton Armstrong	Connecticut
13	PHI	Thabo Sefolosha	Switzerland
14	UTA	Ronnie Brewer	Arkansas
15	NOK	Cedric Simmons	North Carolina State
16	CHI	Rodney Carney	Memphis
17	IND	Shawne Williams	Memphis
18	WAS	Oleksiy Pecherov	Ukraine
19	SAC	Quincy Douby	Rutgers
20	NYK	Renaldo Balkman	South Carolina
21	PHO	Rajon Rondo	Kentucky
22	NJN	Marcus Williams	Connecticut
23	NJN	Josh Boone	Connecticut
24	MEM	Kyle Lowry	Villanova
25	CLE	Shannon Brown	Michigan State
26	LAL	Jordan Farmar	UCLA
27	PHO	Sergio Rodriguez	Spain
28	DAL	Maurice Ager	Michigan State
29	NYK	Mardy Collins	Temple
30	POR	Joel Freeland	England

Notable Second-Rounders: Paul Millsap (No. 47, UTA)

Performers

Brandon Roy: 17.1 points, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.1 turnovers (45.6 FG, 83.8 FT)
57 games – 5^th round value L

BUSTED

Andrea Bargnani: 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 three-pointers (42.7 FG, 82.4 FT)
65 games

LaMarcus Aldridge: 9.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 blocks (50.3 FG, 72.2 FT)
63 games played

*Aldridge’s numbers suffered his rookie year because he was stuck playing behind Zach Randolph

2007 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	POR	Greg Oden	Ohio State
2	SEA	Kevin Durant	Texas
3	ATL	Al Horford	Florida
4	MEM	Mike Conley	Ohio State
5	BOS	Jeff Green	Georgetown
6	MIL	Yi Jianlian	China
7	MIN	Corey Brewer	Florida
8	CHA	Brandan Wright	North Carolina
9	CHI	Joakim Noah	Florida
10	SAC	Spencer Hawes	Washington
11	ATL	Acie Law	Texas A&M
12	PHI	Thaddeus Young	Georgia Tech
13	NOK	Julian Wright	Kansas
14	LAC	Al Thornton	Florida State
15	DET	Rodney Stuckey	Eastern Washington
16	WAS	Nick Young	Southern California
17	NJN	Sean Williams	Boston College
18	GSW	Marco Belinelli	Italy
19	LAL	Javaris Crittenton	Georgia Tech
20	MIA	Jason Smith	Colorado State
21	PHI	Daequan Cook	Ohio State
22	CHA	Jared Dudley	Boston College
23	NYK	Wilson Chandler	DePaul
24	PHO	Rudy Fernandez	Spain
25	UTA	Morris Almond	Rice
26	HOU	Aaron Brooks	Oregon
27	DET	Arron Afflalo	UCLA
28	SAS	Tiago Splitter	Brazil
29	PHO	Alando Tucker	Wisconsin
30	PHI	Petteri Koponen	Finland

Notable Second-Rounders: Marc Gasol (No. 48, LAL), Ramon Sessions (No. 56, MIL), Carl Landry (No. 31, SEA), Glen Davis (No. 35, SEA)

Performers

Kevin Durant: 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers (43.0 FG, 87.3 FT)
80 games played – 7^th round value

Al Horford: 10.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.7 Turnovers (49.9 FG, 73.1 FT)
81 games played – 8^th round value

Specialist

Rudy Fernandez: 10.4 points, 2.0 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 1.1 Turnovers (42.5 FG, 83.9 FT)
78 games played

BUSTED

Greg Oden: 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks (56.4 FG, 63.7 FT)
61 games played

2008 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	CHI	Derrick Rose	Memphis
2	MIA	Michael Beasley	Kansas State
3	MIN	O.J. Mayo	Southern California
4	SEA	Russell Westbrook	UCLA
5	MEM	Kevin Love	UCLA
6	NYK	Danilo Gallinari	Italy
7	LAC	Eric Gordon	Indiana
8	MIL	Joe Alexander	West Virginia
9	CHA	D.J. Augustin	Texas
10	NJN	Brook Lopez	Stanford
11	IND	Jerryd Bayless	Arizona
12	SAC	Jason Thompson	Rider
13	POR	Brandon Rush	Kansas
14	GSW	Anthony Randolph	Louisiana State
15	PHO	Robin Lopez	Stanford
16	PHI	Marreese Speights	Florida
17	TOR	Roy Hibbert	Georgetown
18	WAS	JaVale McGee	University of Nevada, Reno
19	CLE	J.J. Hickson	North Carolina State
20	CHA	Alexis Ajinca	France
21	NJN	Ryan Anderson	California
22	ORL	Courtney Lee	Western Kentucky
23	UTA	Kosta Koufos	Ohio State
24	SEA	Serge Ibaka	Congo
25	HOU	Nicolas Batum	France
26	SAS	George Hill	IUPUI
27	NOH	Darrell Arthur	Kansas
28	MEM	Donte Greene	Syracuse
29	DET	D.J. White	Indiana
30	BOS	J.R. Giddens	New Mexico

Notable Second-Rounders: Nikola Pekovic (No. 31, MIN), Mario Chalmers (No. 34, MIN), DeAndre Jordan (No. 35, LAC), Goran Dragic (No. 45, SA), Omer Asik (No. 36, POR)

Performers

Derrick Rose: 16.8 points, 6.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.5 turnovers (47.3 FG, 78.8 FT)
81 games played – 11^th round value

O.J. Mayo: 18.5 points, 3.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.8 3-pointers, 2.8 Turnovers (43.8 FG, 87.9 FT)
82 games played – 8^th round value

Russell Westbrook: 15.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 3.3 turnovers (39.8 FGs, 81.5 FTs)
82 games played – 9^th round value (punting turnovers)

Kevin Love: 11.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.0 three-pointers (45.9 FG, 78.9 FT)
81 games played – 14^th round value
*Love’s rookie year could have been better, but he was stuck playing behind Al Jefferson for much of the season

Eric Gordon: 16.1 points, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.7 three-pointers (38.9 FG, 85.4 FT)
78 games played – 7^th round value

Brook Lopez: 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (53.1 FG, 81.7 FT)
82 games played – 5^th round value

BUSTED

Michael Beasley: 13.9 points, 5.4 boards, 1.0 assist, 1.5 turnovers (47.2 FG, 77.2 FT)

81 games played

2009 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	LAC	Blake Griffin*	Oklahoma
2	MEM	Hasheem Thabeet	Connecticut
3	OKC	James Harden	Arizona State
4	SAC	Tyreke Evans	Memphis
5	MIN	Ricky Rubio	Spain
6	MIN	Jonny Flynn	Syracuse
7	GSW	Stephen Curry	Davidson College
8	NYK	Jordan Hill	Arizona
9	TOR	DeMar DeRozan	Southern California
10	MIL	Brandon Jennings	Oak Hill Academy (VA)
11	NJN	Terrence Williams	Louisville
12	CHA	Gerald Henderson	Duke
13	IND	Tyler Hansbrough	North Carolina
14	PHO	Earl Clark	Louisville
15	DET	Austin Daye	Gonzaga
16	CHI	James Johnson	Wake Forest
17	PHI	Jrue Holiday	UCLA
18	MIN	Ty Lawson	North Carolina
19	ATL	Jeff Teague	Wake Forest
20	UTA	Eric Maynor	Virginia Commonwealth
21	NOH	Darren Collison	UCLA
22	POR	Victor Claver	Spain
23	SAC	Omri Casspi	Israel
24	DAL	Byron Mullens	Ohio State
25	OKC	Rodrigue Beaubois	Guadeloupe
26	CHI	Taj Gibson	Southern California
27	MEM	DeMarre Carroll	Missouri
28	MIN	Wayne Ellington	North Carolina
29	LAL	Toney Douglas	Florida State
30	CLE	Christian Eyenga	Congo

Notable Second-Rounders: Jodie Meeks (No. 41, MIL), Patrick Beverley (No. 42, LAL), Danny Green (No. 46, CLE), Patty Mills (No. 55, POR)

Performers

Tyreke Evans: 20.1 points, 5.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.5 three-pointers, 3.0 turnovers (45.8 FG, 74.8 FT)
72 games played – 6^th round value

Stephen Curry: 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.9 steals 2.1 three-pointers (46.2 FG, 88.5 FT)
77 games played – 1^st round value

Brandon Jennings: 15.5 points, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 three-pointers (37.1 FG, 81.7 FT)
82 games played – 10^th round value

BUSTED

Hasheem Thabeet: 3.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks (58.8 FG, 58.1 FT)
68 games played

James Harden: 9.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 three-pointers (40.3 FG, 80.8 FT)
76 games played
*It feels so strange to delve out the bust term to Chef Harden, but these numbers really wouldn’t have helped a team in standard leagues.

Delayed

Blake Griffin* (injured actual rookie year): 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2.7 turnovers (50.6 FG, 64.2 FT)
82 games played (2010-11) – 7^th round value

Ricky Rubio* (didn’t make NBA debut until 2011): 10.6 points, 8.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 3.2 Turnovers (35.7 FG, 80.3 FT)

41 games played – 6^th round value

2010 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	WAS	John Wall	Kentucky
2	PHI	Evan Turner	Ohio State
3	NJN	Derrick Favors	Georgia Tech
4	MIN	Wes Johnson	Syracuse
5	SAC	DeMarcus Cousins	Kentucky
6	GSW	Ekpe Udoh	Baylor
7	DET	Greg Monroe	Georgetown
8	LAC	Al-Farouq Aminu	Wake Forest
9	UTA	Gordon Hayward	Butler
10	IND	Paul George	Cal State Fresno
11	NOH	Cole Aldrich	Kansas
12	MEM	Xavier Henry	Kansas
13	TOR	Ed Davis	North Carolina
14	HOU	Patrick Patterson	Kentucky
15	MIL	Larry Sanders	Virginia Commonwealth
16	MIN	Luke Babbitt	University of Nevada, Reno
17	CHI	Kevin Seraphin	France
18	OKC	Eric Bledsoe	Kentucky
19	BOS	Avery Bradley	Texas
20	SAS	James Anderson	Oklahoma State
21	OKC	Craig Brackins	Iowa State
22	POR	Elliot Williams	Memphis
23	MIN	Trevor Booker	Clemson
24	ATL	Damion James	Texas
25	MEM	Dominique Jones	South Florida
26	OKC	Quincy Pondexter	Washington
27	NJN	Jordan Crawford	Xavier
28	MEM	Greivis Vasquez	Maryland
29	ORL	Daniel Orton	Kentucky
30	WAS	Lazar Hayward	Marquette

Notable Second-Rounders: Hassan Whiteside (No. 33, SAC), Lance Stephenson (No. 40, IND)

Performers

John Wall: 16.4 points, 8.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.8 turnovers (40.9 FG, 76.6 FT)
69 games played – 9^th round value

DeMarcus Cousins: 14.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.8 blocks, 3.3 turnovers (43.0 FGs, 68.7 FTs)

81 games played – 10^th round value (punting turnovers)

BUSTED

Evan Turner: 7.2 points, 2.0 assists, 3.9 rebounds (42.5 FG, 80.8 FT)
78 games played

Derrick Favors: 6.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.9 blocks (51.7 FG, 59.5 FT)
78 games played

2011 NBA Draft

Pick Team Player School/Country 1 CLE Kyrie Irving Duke 2 MIN Derrick Williams Arizona 3 UTA Enes Kanter Turkey 4 CLE Tristan Thompson Texas 5 TOR Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania 6 WAS Jan Vesely Czech Republic 7 SAC Bismack Biyombo Congo 8 DET Brandon Knight Kentucky 9 CHA Kemba Walker Connecticut 10 MIL Jimmer Fredette Brigham Young 11 GSW Klay Thompson Washington State 12 UTA Alec Burks Colorado 13 PHO Markieff Morris Kansas 14 HOU Marcus Morris Kansas 15 IND Kawhi Leonard San Diego State 16 PHI Nikola Vucevic Southern California 17 NYK Iman Shumpert Georgia Tech 18 WAS Chris Singleton Florida State 19 CHA Tobias Harris Tennessee 20 MIN Donatas Motiejunas Lithuania 21 POR Nolan Smith Duke University 22 DEN Kenneth Faried Morehead State 23 HOU Nikola Mirotic Montenegro 24 OKC Reggie Jackson Boston College 25 BOS MarShon Brooks Providence College 26 DAL Jordan Hamilton Texas 27 NJN JaJuan Johnson Purdue 28 CHI Norris Cole Cleveland State 29 SAS Cory Joseph Texas 30 CHI Jimmy Butler Marquette

Notable Second-Rounders: Bogdan Bogdanovic (No. 31, MIA), Chandler Parsons (No. 38, HOU)

Performers

Kyrie Irving: 18.5 points, 5.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 three-pointers, 3.1 turnovers (46.9 FG, 87.2 FT)
51 games played (lockout year) – 4^th round value

Brandon Knight: 12.8 points, 3.8 assists, 1.6 three-pointers (41.5 FG, 75.9 FT)
66 games played (lockout year) – 12^th round value (punting turnovers)

Klay Thompson: 12.5 points, 2.0 assists, 1.7 three-pointers (44.3 FG, 86.8 FT)
66 games played (lockout year) – 11^th round value

Specialists

Iman Shumpert: 9.5 points, 2.8 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals (40.1 FG, 79.8 FT)
59 games played (lockout year)

BUSTED

Derrick Williams: 8.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.2 Turnovers (41.2 FG, 69.7 FT)
66 games played (lockout year)

Enes Kanter: 4.6 points, 4.2 rebounds (49.6 FG, 6.7 FT)

66 games played (lockout year)

2012 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	NOH	Anthony Davis	University of Kentucky
2	CHA	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	University of Kentucky
3	WAS	Bradley Beal	University of Florida
4	CLE	Dion Waiters	Syracuse University
5	SAC	Thomas Robinson	University of Kansas
6	POR	Damian Lillard	Weber State University
7	GSW	Harrison Barnes	University of North Carolina
8	TOR	Terrence Ross	University of Washington
9	DET	Andre Drummond	University of Connecticut
10	NOH	Austin Rivers	Duke University
11	POR	Meyers Leonard	University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
12	HOU	Jeremy Lamb	University of Connecticut
13	PHO	Kendall Marshall	University of North Carolina
14	MIL	John Henson	University of North Carolina
15	PHI	Maurice Harkless	St. John’s University
16	HOU	Royce White	Iowa State University
17	DAL	Tyler Zeller	University of North Carolina
18	HOU	Terrence Jones	University of Kentucky
19	ORL	Andrew Nicholson	St. Bonaventure University
20	DEN	Evan Fournier	Poiters Basket 86 (France)
21	BOS	Jared Sullinger	Ohio State University
22	BOS	Fab Melo	Syracuse University
23	ATL	John Jenkins	Vanderbilt University
24	CLE	Jared Cunningham	Oregon State University
25	MEM	Tony Wroten	University of Washington
26	IND	Miles Plumlee	Duke University
27	MIA	Arnett Moultrie	Mississippi State University
28	OKC	Perry Jones	Baylor University
29	CHI	Marquis Teague	University of Kentucky
30	GSW	Festus Ezeli	Vanderbilt University

Notable Second-Rounders: Draymond Green (No. 35, GSW), Jae Crowder (No. 34, CLE), Khris Middleton (No. 39, DET)

Performers

Anthony Davis: 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.8 blocks, 1.4 Turnovers (51.6 FG, 75.1 FT)
64 games played – 3^rd round value

Bradley Beal: 13.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 three-pointers (41.0 FG, 78.6 FT)
56 games played – 11^th round value

Damian Lillard: 19.0 points, 6.5 assists, 2.3 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 3.0 turnovers (42.0 FG, 84.4 FT)
82 games played – 5^th round value

Specialists

Andre Drummond: 7.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.6 blocks (60.8 FG, 37.1 FT)
60 games played

Dion Waiters: 14.7 points, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.0 three-pointer (41.2 FG, 74.6 FT)
61 games played

2013 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	CLE	Anthony Bennett	UNLV
2	ORL	Victor Oladipo	Indiana
3	WAS	Otto Porter	Georgetown
4	CHA	Cody Zeller	Indiana
5	PHO	Alex Len	Maryland
6	NO	Nerlens Noel	Kentucky
7	SAC	Ben McLemore	Kansas
8	DET	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Georgia
9	MIN	Trey Burke	Michigan
10	POR	C.J. McCollum	Lehigh
11	PHI	Michael Carter-Williams	Syracuse
12	OKC	Steven Adams	Pittsburgh
13	BOS	Kelly Olynyk	Gonzaga
14	UTA	Shabazz Muhammad	UCLA
15	MIL	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Greece
16	BOS	Lucas Nogueira	Brazil
17	ATL	Dennis Schroeder	Germany
18	ATL	Shane Larkin	Miami
19	CLE	Sergey Karasev	Russia
20	CHI	Tony Snell	New Mexico
21	UTA	Gorgui Dieng	Louisville
22	BKN	Mason Plumlee	Duke
23	IND	Solomon Hill	Arizona
24	NYK	Tim Hardaway Jr.	Michigan
25	LAC	Reggie Bullock	North Carolina
26	MIN	Andre Roberson	Colorado
27	DEN	Rudy Gobert	France
28	SAS	Livio Jean-Charles	France
29	OKC	Archie Goodwin	Kentucky
30	PHO	Nemanja Nedovic	Serbia

Performers

Victor Oladipo: 13.8 points, 4.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 3.2 Turnovers (41.9 FG, 78.0 FT)
80 games played – 11^th round value

Michael Carter-Williams: 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.9 steals (40.5 FG, 70.3 FT)
70 games played – 8^th round value

BUSTED

Anthony Bennett: 4.2 points, 3.0 rebounds (35.6 FG, 63.8 FT)

52 games played

Otto Porter: 2.1 points, 1.5 rebounds (36.3 FG, 66.7 FT)

37 games played

Delayed

Nerlens Noel: 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.9 blocks (46.2 FG, 60.9 FT)

75 games played – 5^th round value

2014 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	CLE	Andrew Wiggins	Kansas
2	MIL	Jabari Parker	Duke
3	PHI	Joel Embiid	Kansas
4	ORL	Aaron Gordon	Arizona
5	UTA	Dante Exum	Australia
6	BOS	Marcus Smart	Oklahoma State
7	LAL	Julius Randle	Kentucky
8	SAC	Nik Stauskas	Michigan
9	CHA	Noah Vonleh	Indiana
10	PHI	Elfrid Payton	Louisiana Lafayette
11	DEN	Doug McDermott	Creighton
12	ORL	Dario Saric	Croatia
13	MIN	Zach LaVine	UCLA
14	PHO	T.J. Warren	NC State
15	ATL	Adreian Payne	Michigan State
16	CHI	Jusuf Nurkic	Bosnia
17	BOS	James Young	Kentucky
18	PHO	Tyler Ennis	Syracuse
19	CHI	Gary Harris	Michigan State
20	TOR	Bruna Caboclo	Brazil
21	OKC	Mitch McGary	Michigan
22	MEM	Jordan Adams	UCLA
23	UTA	Rodney Hood	Duke
24	CHA	Shabazz Napier	Connecticut
25	HOU	Clint Capela	Switzerland
26	MIA	P.J. Hairston	North Carolina
27	PHO	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Serbia
28	LAC	C.J. Wilcox	Washington
29	OKC	Josh Huestis	Stanford
30	SAS	Kyle Anderson	UCLA

Notable Second-Rounders: Nikola Jokic (No. 41, DEN), Spencer Dinwiddie (No. 38, DET), Jordan Clarkson (No. 46, WAS)

Performers

Andrew Wiggins: 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.6 blocks, 2.2 Turnovers

(43.7 FG, 76.0 FT)
82 games played – 11^th round value

Elfrid Payton: 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.5 Turnovers (42.5 FG, 55.1 FT)
82 games played – 10^th round value (punting FT)

BUSTED

Jabari Parker: 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.9 Turnovers (49.0 FG, 69.7 FT)
25 games played

The stats were okay, but only making it through 25 games warrants the bust label for the season.

Delayed

Joel Embiid: 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.2 triples, 2.4 blocks (46.6 FG, 78.3 FT)

31 games played – 4^th round value

2015 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	MIN	Karl-Anthony Towns	Kentucky
2	LAL	D’Angelo Russell	Ohio State
3	PHI	Jahlil Okafor	Duke
4	NYK	Kristaps Porzingis	Latvia
5	ORL	Mario Hezonja	Croatia
6	SAC	Willie Cauley-Stein	Kentucky
7	DEN	Emmanuel Mudiay	Congo
8	DET	Stanley Johnson	Arizona
9	CHA	Frank Kaminsky	Wisconsin
10	MIA	Justise Winslow	Duke
11	IND	Myles Turner	Texas
12	UTA	Trey Lyles	Kentucky
13	PHX	Devin Booker	Kentucky
14	OKC	Cameron Payne	Murray State
15	WAS	Kelly Oubre	Kansas
16	BOS	Terry Rozier	Louisville
17	MIL	Rashad Vaughn	UNLC
18	HOU	Sam Dekker	Wisconsin
19	NYK	Jerian Grant	Notre Dame
20	TOR	Deion Wright	Utah
21	DAL	Justin Anderson	Virginia
22	CHI	Bobby Portis	Arkansas
23	BKN	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Arizona
24	MIN	Tyus Jones	Duke
25	MEM	Jarell Martin	LSU
26	SA	Nikola Milutinov	Partizan
27	LAL	Larry Nance Jr.	Wyoming
28	BOS	R.J. Hunter	Georgia State
29	BKN	Chris McCullough	Syracuse
30	GSW	Kevon Looney	UCLA

Notable Second-Rounder: Willy Hernangomez (No. 35, PHI), Richaun Holmes (No. 37 PHI), Josh Richardson (No. 40, MIA)

Performers

Karl-Anthony Towns: 18.3 points, 10.4 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.7 blocks, 2.2 Turnovers (54.3 FG, 81.1 FT)

82 games played – 1^st round value

Kristaps Porzingis: 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 triples, 1.9 blocks, 1.7 Turnovers (42.1 FG, 83.8 FT)

72 games played – 5^th round value

Jahlil Okafor: 17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, 2.3 Turnovers (50.8 FG, 68.6 FT)

53 games played – 9^th round value

BUSTED

D’Angelo Russell: 13.2 points, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.6 triples, 2.5 Turnovers (41.0 FG, 73.7 FT)

80 games played

*D-Lo finally started playing like a former No. 2 overall pick this past season, but he never had much fantasy value while with the Lakers.

2016 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	PHI	Ben Simmons	LSU
2	LAL	Brandon Ingram	Duke
3	BOS	Jaylen Brown	California
4	PHX	Dragan Bender	Croatia
5	MIN	Kris Dunn	Providence
6	NO	Buddy Hield	Oklahoma
7	DEN	Jamal Murray	Kentucky
8	PHX	Marquese Chriss	Washington
9	TOR	Jakob Poeltl	Utah
10	MIL	Thon Maker	South Sudan
11	OKC	Domantas Sabonis	Gonzaga
12	ATL	Taurean Prince	Baylor
13	SAC	Georgies Papagiannis	Greece
14	CHI	Denzel Valentine	Michigan State
15	DEN	Juan Hernangomez	Spain
16	BOS	Guerschon Yabusele	France
17	MEM	Wade Baldwin	Vanderbilt
18	DET	Henry Ellenson	Marquette
19	DEN	Malik Beasley	Florida State
20	BKN	Caris LeVert	Michigan
21	ATL	DeAndre Bembry	St. Joseph’s
22	SAC	Malachi Richardson	Syracuse
23	BOS	Ante Zizic	Croatia
24	PHI	Timothe Luwawu	France
25	LAC	Brice Johnson	North Carolina
26	PHI	Furkan Korkmaz	Turkey
27	TOR	Pascal Siakam	New Mexico State
28	SAC	Skal Labissiere	Kentucky
29	SA	Dejounte Murray	Washington
30	GSW	Damian Jones	Vanderbilt

Notable Second-Rounders: Malcolm Brogdon (No. 36, MIL)

Performers

Malcolm Brogdon: 10.2 points, 4.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 3-pointer, 1.5 Turnovers (45.8 FG, 86.5 FT)

75 games played – 10^th round value

BUSTED

Brandon Ingram: 9.4 points, 4.0 boards, 2.1 assists (40.2 FG, 62.1 FT)

79 games played

Jaylen Brown: 6.6 points, 2.8 rebounds (45.4 FG, 68.5 FT)

78 games played

Delayed

Ben Simmons: 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.9 swats, 3.4 turnovers (54.5 FG, 56.0 FT)

81 games played – 5^th round value

2017 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	PHI	Markelle Fultz	Washington
2	LAL	Lonzo Ball	UCLA
3	BOS	Jayson Tatum	Duke
4	PHO	Josh Jackson	Kansas
5	SAC	De’Aaron Fox	Kentucky
6	ORL	Jonathan Isaac	Florida State
7	CHI*	Lauri Markkanen	Arizona
8	NYK	Frank Ntilikina	France
9	DAL	Dennis Smith Jr.	N.C. State
10	POR	Zach Collins	Gonzaga
11	CHA	Malik Monk	Kentucky
12	DET	Luke Kennard	Duke
13	UTA*	Donovan Mitchell	Louisville
14	MIA	Bam Adebayo	Kentucky
15	SAC*	Justin Jackson	UNC
16	MIN*	Justin Patton	Creighton
17	MIL	D.J. Wilson	Michigan
18	IND	T.J. Leaf	UCLA
19	ATL	John Collins	Wake Forest
20	SAC*	Harry Giles	Duke
21	OKC	Terrance Furguson	Australia
22	BKN	Jarrett Allen	Texas
23	TOR	OG Anunoby	Indiana
24	DEN	Tyler Lydon	Syracuse
25	PHI	Anžejs Pasečņiks	Gran Canaria
26	POR	Caleb Swanigan	Purdue
27	LAL	Kyle Kuzma	Utah
28	UTA	Tony Bradley	UNC
29	SAS	Derrick White	Colorado
30	LAL*	Josh Hart	Villanova

Notable Second-Rounders: Jordan Bell (No. 38, GSW), Thomas Bryant (No. 42, UTA), Dillon Brooks (No. 45, MEM)

Performers

Lonzo Ball: 10.2 points, 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.7 3-pointer, 0.8 blocks, 2.6 turnovers (36.0 FG, 45.1 FT)

52 games played – 7^th round value

Jayson Tatum: 13.9 points, 5.0 boards, 1.6 assists, 1.3 triples, 1.0 steal, 1.4 turnovers (47.5 FG, 82.6 FT)

80 games played – 6^th round value

Donovan Mitchell: 20.5 points, 3.7 boards, 3.7 dimes, 2.4 treys, 1.5 steals, 2.7 turnovers (43.7 FG, 80.5 FT)

79 games played – 5^th round value

John Collins: 10.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 blocks, 1.4 turnovers (57.6 FG, 71.5 FT)

74 games played – 8^th round value

Second-half guys

Jarrett Allen: 9.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 1.6 turnovers (60.4 FG, 77.8 FT)

Final 24 games of the year – 8^th round value

Josh Jackson: 18.3 points, 5.8 boards, 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.3 turnovers (43.7 FG, 67.6 FT)

Final 22 games of the year – 10^th round value if punting FT

Josh Hart: 14.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.1 triples, 1.0 steal, 1.3 turnovers (48.2 FG, 76.9 FT)

Final 13 games of the year – 5^th round value

BUSTED

Markelle Fultz: 7.1 points, 3.1 boards, 3.8 assists (40.5 FG, 47.6 FT)

14 games played

De’Aaron Fox: 11.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.4 dimes, 1.0 steal, 2.4 turnovers (41.2 FG, 72.3 FT)

73 games played

Dennis Smith Jr.: 15.2 points, 3.8 boards, 5.2 assists, 1.5 triples, 1.0 steal, 2.8 turnovers (39.5 FG, 69.4 FT)

69 games played

*The numbers were semi-respectable, but the horrid percentages tanked his value, and you have to consider him a bust considering where he was going in drafts.

2018 NBA Draft

Pick	Team	Player	School/Country
1	PHO	Deandre Ayton	University of Arizona
2	SAC	Marvin Bagley	Duke
3	ATL	Luka Doncic	Slovenia
4	MEM	Jaren Jackson Jr.	Michigan State
5	DAL	Trae Young	University of Oklahoma
6	ORL	Mo Bamba	University of Texas at Austin
7	CHI	Wendell Carter Jr.	Duke
8	CLE	Collin Sexton	University of Alabama
9	NYK	Kevin Knox	University of Kentucky
10	PHI	Mikal Bridges	Villanova
11	CHO	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	University of Kentucky
12	LAC	Miles Bridges	Michigan State
13	LAC	Jerome Robinson	Boston College
14	DEN	Michael Porter Jr.	University of Missouri
15	WAS	Troy Brown	University of Oregon
16	PHO	Zhaire Smith	Texas Tech
17	MIL	Donte DiVincenzo	Villanova
18	SAS	Lonnie Walker	University of Miami
19	ATL	Kevin Huerter	University of Maryland
20	MIN	Josh Okogie	Georgia Institute of Technology
21	UTA	Grayson Allen	Duke
22	CHI	Chandler Hutchison	Boise State
23	IND	Aaron Holiday	UCLA
24	POR	Anfernee Simons	IMG Academy
25	LAL	Moritz Wagner	University of Michigan
26	PHI	Landry Shamet	Wichita State
27	BOS	Robert Williams	Texas A&M
28	GSW	Jacob Evans	University of Cincinnati
29	BKN	Dzanan Musa	Bosnia
30	ATL	Omari Spellman	Villanova

Notable Second-Rounders: Mitchell Robinson (No. 36, NYK)

Performers

Deandre Ayton: 16.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (58.5 FG, 74.6 FT)
71 games played – 3^rd round value

Luka Doncic: 21.2 points, 2.3 triples, 7.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.4 turnovers (42.6 FG, 71.3 FT)
72 games played – 9^th round value

Jaren Jackson Jr.: 13.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.9 triples, 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks, 1.7 turnovers (50.5 FG, 76.6 FT)
58 games – 8^th round value

Trae Young: 19.1 points, 8.1 assists, 1.9 triples, 3.8 turnovers (41.8 FG, 82.9 FT)
81 games – 11^th round value

Wendell Carter Jr.: 10.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.5 turnovers (48.6 FG, 79.5 FT)
44 games – 10^th round value

Mitchell Robinson: 7.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 0.5 turnovers (69.4 FG, 60.0 FT)
66 games – 4^th round value

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 10.8 points, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.7 turnovers (47.4 FG, 79.9 FT)
82 games – 12^th round value

Second-Half Guys

Marvin Bagley: 18.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.9 blocks, 1.5 turnovers (48.7 FG, 70.2 FT)
Final 19 games of the year – 10^th round value

Mikal Bridges: 8.7 points, 3.0 assists, 1.0 triple, 1.6 steals, 1.0 turnover (42.1 FG, 84.4 FT)
Final 23 games of the year – 9^th round value

Miles Bridges: 9.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.1 triples, 1.1 steals, 0.7 turnovers (49.0 FG, 83.3 FT)
Final 25 games of the year – 8^th round value

Specialists

Kevin Huerter: 10.8 points, 2.0 triples, 3.0 assists, 1.1 turnovers (41.6 FG, 72.7 FT)
Final 21 games of the year

BUSTED

No one was a bust out of this class

So, what can we learn from all this data?

• In general, rookies will struggle with their shooting percentage as well as turnovers
• Big men tend to be slow starters
• While there’s value to be had throughout the draft, it’s unlikely someone selected outside the top-10 will be an impact player his rookie year

Now, whether or not you can attach the bust label to a rookie from a fantasy perspective will be primarily based on where you need to take them on draft day. For example, burning an early-round pick on a first-year player is obviously riskier than shooting for the moon with a late-round flier, but that’s what you’re going to need to do if you want Zion Williamson.

By the way, I’m very confident that Williamson will become the third rookie to ever put up a first-round season, so I don’t mind reaching for him in Round 2 this year. He’s in a great system playing for Alvin Gentry and is sure to receive his fair share of perfect lobs from Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball. Williamson reeks of generation talent, as a nimble athlete with the body of a linebacker, and his commitment to both ends of the floor should result in across-the-board production. He’s probably the most hyped rookie we’ve seen since LeBron James, but by watching his highlights it’s easy to see why.