Rankings in Review

The inaugural edition of my summer column, ‘The Numbers Game’, features detailed fantasy-value rankings for nine-cat and eight-cat leagues, followed by a look at the Western Conference finals between the Spurs and Thunder. Steve Alexander already broke down both of this year’s Conference finals in his terrific Playoff Preview, and my primary goal is to set the table for future columns, so we’ll begin with a look at this year’s fantasy rankings.

After obtaining every NBA player’s per game stats for the 2013-14 regular season, I tossed out players who didn’t appear in at least 30 games (e.g. Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Larry Sanders and Al Horford), as well as players who didn’t average at least 20 minutes per game. After culling these two groups I was left with 216 players (enough for a 15-team league with 14-player rosters). I then calculated standard deviations and assigned z-scores to each player across the nine primary fantasy categories (PTS, 3PT, REB, AST, STL, BLK, FG%, FT% and TOS). If you’re interested in reading more about my approach, here are links to six columns which have informed my methodology: The Numbers Game, The Numbers Game Pt. 2, Top-180 Rankings, Points League Primer, Matchups by the Numbers, and The Numbers Game Pt. 3.

What follows is a retrospective ranking for nine-cat fantasy values during the 2013-14 season, on a per-game basis. My spreadsheet is available on Google Drive and there’s a separate column for eight-cat values, but you can manipulate the numbers to include only those categories which interest you. It is merely the first step in my summer-long exploration of last season’s stats, which will (hopefully) culminate in a stats-driven projection for next year’s values.

	Name	TOTAL 9-cat value	Total 8-cat value
1	Kevin Durant	12.12	14.55
2	Anthony Davis	9.78	9.62
3	Chris Paul	9.10	9.91
4	Stephen Curry	8.33	11.11
5	Kevin Love	8.22	9.32
6	LeBron James	8.03	10.45
7	James Harden	7.64	10.23
8	Carmelo Anthony	7.51	8.64
9	Dirk Nowitzki	6.75	6.36
10	Paul George	5.69	7.13
11	Serge Ibaka	5.67	5.36
12	LaMarcus Aldridge	5.01	5.06
13	Kyle Lowry	4.67	5.65
14	Kawhi Leonard	4.64	3.90
15	Al Jefferson	4.51	4.45
16	Russell Westbrook	4.11	6.99
17	Joakim Noah	4.07	5.01
18	Paul Millsap	4.07	5.10
19	DeMarcus Cousins	4.03	6.48
20	Kyrie Irving	4.02	5.30
21	Chris Bosh	3.68	3.46
22	John Wall	3.66	6.20
23	Damian Lillard	3.65	4.48
24	Blake Griffin	3.60	5.05
25	Trevor Ariza	3.54	3.50
26	Goran Dragic	3.42	4.87
27	Isaiah Thomas	3.25	4.92
28	Thaddeus Young	2.94	3.41
29	Mike Conley	2.90	3.32
30	Nicolas Batum	2.77	3.85
31	Chandler Parsons	2.73	3.01
32	Kyle Korver	2.69	2.27
33	Tim Duncan	2.67	3.23
34	Andre Drummond	2.60	2.05
35	Nikola Vucevic	2.52	2.83
36	Robin Lopez	2.49	1.50
37	Ty Lawson	2.43	4.46
38	DeAndre Jordan	2.41	2.07
39	Jodie Meeks	2.37	1.95
40	Dwyane Wade	2.28	3.97
41	Marc Gasol	2.23	2.42
42	Rudy Gay	2.21	4.03
43	Wesley Matthews	2.15	1.60
44	Klay Thompson	2.12	2.01
45	Spencer Hawes	2.08	2.65
46	DeMar DeRozan	2.07	2.73
47	Pau Gasol	2.04	2.87
48	Marcin Gortat	2.03	1.77
49	Eric Bledsoe	1.98	4.15
50	Deron Williams	1.84	2.51
51	Jrue Holiday	1.83	3.67
52	Andrew Bogut	1.80	1.39
53	DeMarre Carroll	1.77	0.86
54	Kemba Walker	1.77	2.55
55	Ricky Rubio	1.71	3.01
56	Kevin Martin	1.68	1.42
57	David Lee	1.58	2.22
58	Derrick Favors	1.57	1.60
59	Gordon Hayward	1.53	2.91
60	Monta Ellis	1.53	3.55
61	J.J. Redick	1.48	0.73
62	Gerald Green	1.48	1.51
63	Jimmy Butler	1.44	1.14
64	Jamal Crawford	1.32	1.61
65	Terrence Jones	1.24	0.12
66	Jose Calderon	1.12	0.47
67	David West	1.08	0.96
68	Nikola Pekovic	1.04	0.78
69	Paul Pierce	1.00	1.40
70	Shawn Marion	0.86	0.18
71	Patrick Beverley	0.84	0.06
72	Channing Frye	0.76	-0.15
73	Jeff Teague	0.67	2.29
74	Randy Foye	0.64	0.70
75	Danny Green	0.57	-0.29
76	Corey Brewer	0.55	-0.07
77	Manu Ginobili	0.49	0.90
78	Anderson Varejao	0.49	-0.38
79	Wes Johnson	0.41	-0.42
80	Andre Iguodala	0.40	0.18
81	Bradley Beal	0.35	0.36
82	Nick Young	0.35	-0.01
83	Josh McRoberts	0.35	-0.59
84	Joe Johnson	0.31	0.00
85	Kenneth Faried	0.25	0.17
86	Tyson Chandler	0.22	-0.41
87	Tobias Harris	0.22	-0.43
88	Arron Afflalo	0.21	0.55
89	Amir Johnson	0.18	-0.02
90	Mike Dunleavy	0.14	-0.44
91	P.J. Tucker	0.13	-0.54
92	Markieff Morris	0.11	0.21
93	George Hill	0.10	-0.63
94	Michael Carter-Williams	0.08	2.53
95	J.R. Smith	0.03	-0.37
96	Brandon Knight	0.01	1.19
97	Mario Chalmers	0.00	0.65
98	Darren Collison	-0.04	-0.17
99	Greg Monroe	-0.12	0.28
100	Reggie Jackson	-0.13	0.35
101	Roy Hibbert	-0.18	-0.07
102	Luol Deng	-0.19	-0.10
103	D.J. Augustin	-0.24	-0.22
104	Khris Middleton	-0.27	-0.60
105	Wilson Chandler	-0.30	-0.95
106	Eric Gordon	-0.37	0.11
107	Vince Carter	-0.39	-0.95
108	Andrea Bargnani	-0.41	-0.91
109	Zach Randolph	-0.44	0.34
110	Brandon Jennings	-0.47	0.82
111	Lance Stephenson	-0.50	0.80
112	Tony Parker	-0.52	0.13
113	Marvin Williams	-0.52	-1.82
114	Jameer Nelson	-0.54	0.42
115	John Henson	-0.56	-0.72
116	Taj Gibson	-0.62	-0.50
117	Matt Barnes	-0.65	-1.19
118	Brandon Bass	-0.66	-1.35
119	Marco Belinelli	-0.67	-1.43
120	Jeff Green	-0.68	-0.31
121	Victor Oladipo	-0.77	1.22
122	Jonas Valanciunas	-0.81	-0.90
123	Avery Bradley	-0.85	-1.05
124	Jared Sullinger	-0.85	-1.04
125	Jeremy Lin	-0.87	0.13
126	Tyreke Evans	-0.88	0.06
127	Terrence Ross	-0.91	-1.82
128	Shaun Livingston	-0.94	-1.44
129	Josh Smith	-0.97	0.19
130	Draymond Green	-0.97	-1.84
131	Jordan Hill	-1.02	-1.99
132	Courtney Lee	-1.08	-2.21
133	Patrick Patterson	-1.08	-2.11
134	Samuel Dalembert	-1.10	-1.95
135	Caron Butler	-1.10	-2.03
136	Kyle Singler	-1.14	-2.21
137	Ray Allen	-1.16	-1.97
138	Rajon Rondo	-1.16	0.97
139	Dwight Howard	-1.19	0.84
140	Andray Blatche	-1.24	-1.57
141	Martell Webster	-1.36	-2.74
142	James Anderson	-1.38	-1.96
143	Timofey Mozgov	-1.41	-1.76
144	Raymond Felton	-1.44	-1.11
145	Ryan Kelly	-1.53	-2.83
146	Trey Burke	-1.65	-1.47
147	Ersan Ilyasova	-1.67	-2.54
148	Miles Plumlee	-1.71	-2.21
149	Thabo Sefolosha	-1.72	-2.88
150	Jason Smith	-1.77	-2.92
151	Boris Diaw	-1.79	-2.09
152	Kirk Hinrich	-1.82	-1.96
153	Marcus Morris	-1.88	-2.68
154	Tony Allen	-1.88	-2.03
155	Jordan Farmar	-1.88	-1.10
156	Al-Farouq Aminu	-1.89	-2.77
157	Steve Blake	-1.91	-1.76
158	Carlos Boozer	-1.93	-1.55
159	Kevin Garnett	-1.96	-2.61
160	Gerald Henderson	-2.00	-2.38
161	Lou Williams	-2.03	-2.33
162	Nene	-2.04	-1.41
163	Tristan Thompson	-2.15	-2.73
164	Amar’e Stoudemire	-2.16	-2.64
165	Iman Shumpert	-2.17	-3.10
166	Maurice Harkless	-2.18	-3.10
167	Richard Jefferson	-2.21	-3.03
168	Kendall Marshall	-2.21	-0.80
169	Evan Turner	-2.27	-1.46
170	Alec Burks	-2.27	-2.05
171	Trevor Booker	-2.33	-3.62
172	Zaza Pachulia	-2.44	-2.45
173	Brian Roberts	-2.46	-3.07
174	Tim Hardaway Jr.	-2.48	-4.08
175	Enes Kanter	-2.49	-2.41
176	Marcus Thornton	-2.51	-3.63
177	Jarrett Jack	-2.51	-2.63
178	Dion Waiters	-2.56	-1.94
179	Dante Cunningham	-2.71	-4.40
180	Glen Davis	-2.73	-3.59
181	Jordan Crawford	-2.75	-2.87
182	Mo Williams	-2.76	-2.39
183	Ramon Sessions	-2.76	-2.71
184	Greivis Vasquez	-2.77	-2.94
185	Aaron Brooks	-2.78	-2.95
186	Rodney Stuckey	-2.81	-2.85
187	Tiago Splitter	-2.82	-3.44
188	Jermaine O’Neal	-2.82	-3.59
189	Chris Douglas-Roberts	-2.83	-4.22
190	O.J. Mayo	-2.84	-2.73
191	Jerryd Bayless	-2.87	-3.71
192	Anthony Tolliver	-3.05	-4.97
193	Shelvin Mack	-3.06	-3.76
194	Harrison Barnes	-3.14	-4.06
195	Shane Battier	-3.22	-5.22
196	Giannis Antetokounmpo	-3.29	-3.51
197	Mike Miller	-3.33	-4.44
198	Hollis Thompson	-3.37	-4.70
199	Devin Harris	-3.40	-3.78
200	J.J. Hickson	-3.52	-3.37
201	Danny Granger	-3.54	-4.40
202	Gary Neal	-3.66	-4.36
203	Jason Thompson	-3.73	-4.54
204	Jared Dudley	-3.76	-5.12
205	Omer Asik	-3.84	-4.55
206	Alan Anderson	-3.85	-5.15
207	Norris Cole	-3.89	-4.16
208	Nate Wolters	-3.93	-4.98
209	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-3.96	-5.02
210	Ben McLemore	-4.16	-4.95
211	Gerald Wallace	-4.26	-4.36
212	John Salmons	-4.28	-5.73
213	Derrick Williams	-4.35	-5.41
214	Xavier Henry	-4.79	-5.37
215	Tayshaun Prince	-4.80	-6.46
216	Tony Wroten	-5.41	-3.92

The standard deviation for players’ values in nine-cat leagues (2.92) is lower than it is for eight-cat leagues (3.55), which suggests that turnovers are a more tumultuous category prone to boom-or-bust value in an individual player – someone either turns the ball over frequently or sparingly, with most of the league skewing one way or the other. The players who lose the most value shifting from 9-cat to 8-cat leagues are the league leaders in that dubious category – Russell Westbrook (3.8), followed by Stephen Curry, James Harden and John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Michael Carter-Williams, Kevin Durant and LeBron James (3.5).

The players who gain the most value are more interesting, as they represent possibly undervalued options later in fantasy drafts. Shane Battier led everyone who averaged at least 20 minutes during the regular season, adding 2.0 to his cumulative z-score according to my home-brewed numbers (theoretically a few dozen players who averaged 0.0 turnovers will have thrived by this metric, but I’m only considering the top 216 players). Battier is followed by Anthony Tolliver, Dante Cunningham, Tayshaun Prince, Tim Hardaway Jr. and John Salmons. It’s worth remembering that the streak of low-minute swingmen continues unbroken until Trevor Booker at No. 14, who picks up 1.3 value with turnovers excluded. This suggests that owners drafting in nine-cat leagues can afford to wait a bit later in drafts to target an under-the-radar SF, as opposed to eight-cat leagues where a SF’s low turnovers are irrelevant.

In next week’s column I’ll compare these end-of-season ranks with each player’s Average Draft Position (ADP) during fantasy drafts, to determine the biggest values and busts of the 2013-14 season. We’ll cover plenty of statistical ground in the coming months, but for now let’s quickly explore the Western Conference finals matchup between the Spurs and Thunder.

I should start by emphasizing that there are major caveats to any analysis based upon the four games between San Antonio and Oklahoma City during the regular season, all four of which were won by OKC. The four-game sample size is minuscule, the playoffs demand a different level of intensity and game-planning, at least one key player was missing in each of their regular-season matchups, and Serge Ibaka’s strained calf is expected to keep him out for the duration of the playoffs.

When Ibaka was off the court this season, the Spurs’ shot 63.6 percent from within five feet of the basket, exactly mirroring their season average. When Ibaka was on the court, however, his elite rim-protection dropped the Spurs’ accuracy to a mere 46.6 percent within five feet, a stunning impact of -17.0 percent.

That helps explain how San Antonio’s Offensive Efficiency also dropped by 29.9 points per 100 possessions when Ibaka was on the court. Interestingly, however, the Thunder almost overcame the difference by improving their own Offensive Efficiency by 27.8 points per 100 possessions in Ibaka’s absence. Reggie Jackson’s phenomenal play off the bench is the most likely explanation for OKC’s offensive surge without Ibaka, at least vs. the Spurs this season, which brings us to our next topic.

When Gregg Popovich recently referred to Reggie Jackson as a “Spurs killer” he was only somewhat hyperbolic. Against the Spurs this season, OKC’s third-year guard averaged 21.3 points on 67.9 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 3.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.3 steals in only 31 minutes per game. For an idea of how he racked up those scoring numbers, observe his stellar shotchart with more than half of his attempts within five feet.

With Jackson’s history of success vs. the Spurs, and Russell Westbrook playing at an elite level, Tony Parker and Patty Mills will have their work cut out for them defensively. Parker’s hamstring injury is a tremendous ‘x-factor’ in the series, an unknown variable which could prove unimportant or series-defining. He played through a Grade-2 strain in the playoffs last year and this injury is far milder, and during the five days off since their last game Parker has not seemed concerned about his status.

In a broader statistical view, the ‘four factors’ were skewed against the Spurs vs. OKC this season, even relative to their own numbers vs. the NBA at large. Compared to the average opponent this season, the Spurs had a worse effective FG percentage, FT attempt rate and turnover ratio vs. the Thunder—they also allowed the Thunder a higher effective FG percentage and a higher offensive rebound rate. Even if you’re unfamiliar with these metrics, the picture is clear – San Antonio struggled mightily with this matchup during the season. Here’s a quick rundown of the highlights during their four regular-season meetings:

First matchup: The Spurs had an 11-game winning streak heading into their first game vs. the Thunder on November 27. The game was played in OKC and the Thunder defense held San Antonio to only 39.1 percent shooting, including a mere 7-of-27 from downtown. The end result was a 94-88 win for OKC, led by Kevin Durant (24 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, six turnovers), Serge Ibaka (17 points, 11 rebounds, five blocks) and Reggie Jackson (23 points on 10-of-14 shooting in 26 minutes off the bench). OKC’s victory was even more impressive since they got limited production from Russell Westbrook (six points on dreadful 2-of-16 shooting). The Spurs were completely healthy and they had five players score in double-digits, led by Tony Parker‘s 17 points and seven assists, but as noted above they simply couldn’t get enough baskets to drop vs. OKC’s defense.

Second matchup: The Thunder won again on December 21, this time in San Antonio by the final score of 113-100. The major caveat is that San Antonio played without Kawhi Leonard (dental surgery), but Kevin Durant (17 points) wasn’t their biggest problem -- Russell Westbrook led all scorers with 31 points and eight assists, while Reggie Jackson had another excellent game with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting off the bench. The Spurs shot much better in this game and went 9-of-19 from downtown, but they lost the rebound battle by 11 and couldn’t get enough defensive stops.

Third matchup: The Thunder won again in San Antonio on January 22, led by Kevin Durant (36 points, five assists, 11 turnovers) and Reggie Jackson (27 points on 12-of-17 shooting with three 3-pointers and eight assists). The Thunder were without Russell Westbrook (knee) while the Spurs were without Tiago Splitter (sprained shoulder) and Danny Green (broken finger). San Antonio shot 53.3 percent from the field but OKC was even better, and the Spurs were again out-rebounded by eight.

Fourth matchup: The Spurs had a 19-game winning streak heading into their matchup in OKC on April 3, but Gregg Popovich rested Manu Ginobili and the streak came screeching to a halt in a 94-106 road loss. Tiago Splitter (two points in 19 minutes) and Tony Parker (six points) both had forgettable evenings, squandering a solid 21-points effort off the bench from Patty Mills. The Spurs actually won the rebound battle in this game, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the dual threats of Kevin Durant (28 points) and Russell Westbrook (27 points, six assists, four steals). Reggie Jackson had yet another excellent game, scoring 14 points on efficient 6-of-8 shooting with four rebounds and four assists.

In summary, the Spurs were thoroughly drubbed during the regular season. Reggie Jackson dominated them, the Thunder performed well above average both defensively and offensively relative to other Spurs’ opponents, and most advanced stats skewed heavily on OKC’s favor. Given the absence of Serge Ibaka and the Spurs’ cohesive play thus far in the postseason, however, I’m personally picking the Spurs to advance to the Finals in six games. For another perspective, check out Steve Alexander’s aforementioned column, “NBA Conference Finals Preview.”