Toward the end of Office Space — a movie I recently rewatched for the first time in a long time — Peter Gibbons has written a letter confessing to stealing a lot of money, and is pretty sure that he’s going to prison.
So what does he do? He packs a bag.
I just noticed this detail on my most recent viewing of the movie, and I’m pretty sure it makes no sense. From the little I know about prison (most of it admittedly from TV and movies), they don’t let you bring a duffle bag in with you.
I bring this up because with the NBA regular season and our fantasy seasons winding down (or in many cases, already over), I’ve been packing up a go-bag of sorts as well. The duffle bag I’m loading up is not filled with clothes — which I believe is all we see Peter put in his bag. Mine is stacked to the top with scraps of paper scrawled with fantasy basketball takeaways. I started to write them down a couple of weeks ago, and I’m frantically jotting down a few more ideas today, in hopes that I/we will remember them for next season.
Here are five big-picture takeaways from 2018-19:
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1. Predicting the Future is Dangerous
Obviously, in fantasy sports, we are essentially trying to predict the future all the time. We’re constantly asking ourselves the question: What is Player X going to do this season, this month, this week, tomorrow night? But when it comes to trying to predict injuries and who will get shut down, I think we got some harsh reminders this season that it’s at least partially pointless to try. Consider:
*We were all either absolutely certain (or somewhat terrified) that Devin Booker was going to get shut down, but he ultimately made it within a week of the finish line — when a number of fantasy seasons were already over anyway — and averaged 30.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 7.1 apg, 0.9 spg and 2.2 3s over his final 21 games. You can technically say you’re right that he got shut down, but preemptively panicking on him wouldn’t have really paid off.
*Many people were also convinced that Nikola Vucevic would either get traded to a worse situation or shut down, and neither one happened. Vuc has played in 78 out of 79 games this season as Orlando currently sits a half game ahead of Miami for the final playoff spot in the East. And Vuc on the season is No. 12 in 9-category leagues.
*Elsewhere, most of us wouldn’t have imagined that LeBron James and the Lakers would miss the playoffs, leading to a full-scale shutdown — and LBJ playing the fewest games (55) of his entire career.
Those are just a few high-profile examples, and there are also some cases where betting against bad teams would have absolutely paid off. For instance, if you’d bailed on the Bulls partway through the season and preemptively gotten rid of Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkannen, it would have been a very prescient decision. And I personally am planning to #FadetheBulls next year. This last stretch of the season has just been too much.
Ultimately, I think my point is this: Yes, there are some players and teams it definitely makes sense to avoid. I certainly won’t be drafting Kawhi Leonard after his season of leisure in 2018-19. But you can also go too far in forcing things into your narrative. That’s the Booker example, above. Ryan Knaus made a great point on the latest podcast about targeting players on “bubble teams” for the playoffs, so you’ll have fantasy players who are fighting for something at the end. Orlando and Vucevic. Charlotte and Kemba Walker, etc.
All of it is easier said than done. And maybe a better way to look at it is targeting players who do play rather than trying to guess who might sit. That means aggressively going after stars who stay on the court: James Harden, Paul George, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Vooch, Kemba, Andre Drummond, even Tobias Harris and Buddy Hield a little further down. All of these players get a bump in my rankings because they’re surpassing 75 or in some cases 80 games this season — and have a legit shot to do so again next year.
2. Pay Close Attention to Age
There’s a scene in Office Space where Bill Lumbergh turns 41, which hits a little close to home for a certain fantasy sports writer who’s about to celebrate a birthday. But that’s not the age I’m talking about here. Ryan Knaus, who gave me about 42 percent of the ideas for this column when we spoke earlier this week, also pointed out this fact on the podcast: The majority of the players in the top 25 of 9-category leagues are all within the ages of 23 to 31. Here’s the top-25, with ages in parentheses:
1. James Harden (29 years old)
2. Anthony Davis (26)
3. Steph Curry (31)
4. Paul George (28)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns (23)
6. Kawhi Leonard (27)
7. Giannis Antetokounmpo (24)
8. Kevin Durant (30)
9. Joel Embiid (25)
10. Kyrie Irving (27)
11. Damian Lillard (28)
12. Nikola Vucevic (28)
13. Nikola Jokic (24)
14. Bradley Beal (25)
15. Jimmy Butler (29)
16. Rudy Gobert (26)
17. Robert Covington (28)*
18. Andre Drummond (25)
19. Clint Capela (24)
20. Jrue Holiday (28)
21. Kemba Walker (28)
22. LeBron James (34)
23. Chris Paul (33)
24. Myles Turner (23)
25. LaMarcus Aldridge (33)
Out of the top 25 players, 20 of them are younger than 30, and the only players 30 or older producing top-25 value are freakishly good: Steph, KD, LeBron, CP3 and L.A.
There are a few things I take away from this:
1. The obvious takeaway — as a general rule, prioritize players who are between 23 and 29 years old;
2. A cautionary note: LeBron and CP3 are fading as they approach their mid-30’s. The last time LeBron finished as low as 22 in 9-category leagues was 2006-07, when he finished exactly 22nd. For Paul, this is his worst 9-category finish ever since coming into the league in 2005-06. I wouldn’t put it past either of them to out-perform this next season, but I still don’t recommend drafting either one of them inside the top-25 next year. (I just assume Aldridge, meanwhile, is gonna be posting top-50 value when he’s 39.)
3. On the other end of this, notice that there are no rookies inside the top 25 either. (This is another point Ryan made.) In fact, the top-ranked fantasy rookie is Deandre Ayton at 37th overall. So keep that in mind when wrestling with the temptation to draft Zion Williamson early next year.
(*Covington only appeared in 35 games)
3. Get to the Line
Another method for zeroing in on top players in fantasy drafts (or identifying future studs) is to simply go after the guys who get the most free throw attempts. I’ve introduced this idea in the column in the past, and thought it would be worth checking out how it ended up this year. This isn’t a perfect science as you’ll see, but there’s a strong correlation between getting hacked and putting up strong fantasy value. Here are the top 25 players in FT attempts, with their 9-category ranking in parentheses:
1. James Harden (No. 1 in 9-category leagues)
2. Joel Embiid (No. 10)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 8)
4. Anthony Davis (No. 2)
5. LeBron James (No. 23)
6. Blake Griffin (No. 68)
7. Kawhi Leonard (No. 7)
8. Devin Booker (No. 43)
9. Paul George (No. 4)
10. Luka Doncic (No. 101)
11. Julius Randle (No. 76)
12. Kevin Durant (No. 9)
13. Lou Williams (No. 97)
14. Damian Lillard (No. 12)
15. Rudy Gobert (No. 17)
16. Russell Westbrook (No. 35)
17. Danilo Gallinari (No. 29)
18. Zach LaVine (No. 61)
19. Mike Conley (No. 28)
20. Karl-Anthony Towns (No. 6)
21. DeMar DeRozan (No. 45)
22. Jimmy Butler (No. 16)
23. Bradley Beal (No. 15)
24. Kemba Walker (No. 22)
25. Ben Simmons (No. 74)
Some of the outliers here — Griffin, Doncic, Randle and Simmons — don’t have high rankings in part because they shot so many free throws (and didn’t shoot them particularly well).
And the only top-10 fantasy players this year who weren’t among the top 25 in FT attempts? Steph and Kyrie.
Also: One note here as far as next year is concerned? The last two months, Trae Young is 21st in free throw attempts a game, and 50th overall in 9-category leagues. I think I’ll split the difference with that in my draft rankings, and hope I can get him around No. 35 overall.
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4. Shorten the Season
Another idea that came up on the podcast — and it came up separately between me, Ryan and Steve Alexander without discussing it beforehand: shorten your season. None of us needs to have our fantasy titles decided by Walter Lemon Jr., JaKarr Sampson and Alex Caruso. It’s just uncalled for (unless you think it’s hilarious and awesome, which I guess is another way to look at it). Personally, I’ve felt for a long time that anything beyond Week 24 is madness, and now I’m starting to think that even Week 24 is pushing it. After all, we were already starting to see the foundation of box scores cracking by that point. Among the random players who lit it up at least once in Week 24: Bruno Caboclo, Tyler Dorsey, Christian Wood, Shaquille Harrison, Josh Okogie, Luke Kornet, Bonzie Colson, Tim Frazier, Justin Anderson, Trey Burke and of course Lemon Jr.
5. One Stash Spot
I’ve been berating myself for failing to stay patient with Mitchell Robinson when I was convinced from early in the season that he was going to break out. As a result, I’ve been trying to brainstorm how I could avoid this, and I think one potential way is to designate one of your bench spots as a stash spot — a side pocket in the duffle bag, if you will, that you don’t open until you really need to. Admit it, you didn’t think Peter’s duffle bag was coming back this late in the column. Well, it’s back, and I think the analogy almost works. Stash spot. Think about it.
30-Deep Update
I will close with an update from the 30-team industry fantasy league, where I’m now in Week 2 of the championship match against Benny Aziz. I won the first week, and am up 8-1 this week. If I win this week, it’s over, and I’ve got my second 30-Deep title. If I lose, we’re going to a sudden death third week, and I say sudden death because there are only two days of games in Week 26 (Tuesday and Wednesday), which as you know if you refer to “Shorten the Season” above, is basically my worst nightmare. Wish me luck.
