The 2023-24 NBA season tipped off way back in October, and after a thrilling 82-game regular season and an even more exciting postseason, we’ve reached the pinnacle.
Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals tips off Thursday as the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks travel to TD Garden to face the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics.
The fantasy hoops season is far in the rearview mirror, but that doesn’t mean the Rotoworld crew is sitting around and twiddling their thumbs. Raphielle Johnson, Noah Rubin, Zak Hanshew, and Ameer Tyree offered their thoughts on what’s sure to be a thrilling conclusion to the NBA season.
Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Preview
Q: Who are you picking to win and why?
Raphielle Johnson: I’m taking the Celtics in six games. They’ve been the best team in the NBA all season long, and during the conference finals, they displayed solid growth regarding how they close games offensively. The addition of Jrue Holiday and his defensive impact will help the Celtics attack the Doncic/Irving tandem, and they have options that the teams Dallas eliminated to reach this point lacked. Also, the time off should help Kristaps Porzingis; he’s reportedly on track to be available for Game 1, which will give Boston a welcome boost in the frontcourt.
Noah Rubin: Celtics in five. Full disclosure, I’ll be rooting for Dallas to win and for the series to go seven games. However, this Boston team just feels inevitable. While they haven’t faced much healthy competition yet this postseason, they were able to make quick work of every team they have played. The moves they made this summer gave them the best top six in the league, and it has shown all year. The extra rest has given time for Kristaps Porzingis to heal up, and with both teams pretty healthy, it will come down to talent. Simply put, the Celtics are the better team on paper, and I think their defense is set up perfectly to try and slow down Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Boston has won their last ten games against Kyrie, including their sweep of the Nets in 2022. I don’t expect the Celtics to dominate every game, but this team has been the title favorite all year for a reason.
Zak Hanshew: I’m going Dallas in six. Boston comfortably led the NBA in games won this season, and the team has arguably the most talented starting five from top to bottom. This isn’t a Tuesday in March... this is the NBA Finals. Imagine it’s a two-point game with three minutes to play. Which Celtic is taking over? Will it be Jayson Tatum, who’s having one of his worst playoff runs in recent memory? Will it be Jaylen Brown, who won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award? Will it be Derrick White or Jrue Holiday, who can get hot at times? Maybe Kristaps Porzingis gets hot in his first game back. There are no questions when we look at the Mavericks. Dallas has a killer who wants the ball in his hands at the end of the game and is not afraid of the brightest lights. I’m picking the team with the best player on the court in Luka Doncic. Don’t forget about Kyrie Irving, another one of the best closers in the Association who has already proven himself when he hit the go-ahead triple in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals in Golden State.
Ameer Tyree: The Celtics should get the job done this time around. I’m picking the Celtics to win in six games. They were far and away the best team at home in 2023-24, are set to get Kristaps Porzingis back, and have had plenty of time to rest and prepare for the Mavericks. Boston has more offensive options and a more capable defense, so I’m backing them to take care of business. They’ve long been considered the most well-rounded team in basketball and should benefit from having an abundance of youth and big-time playoff game experience. Boston added a player with championship pedigree in Jrue Holiday and its perimeter defense is built to slow down the Mavericks’ guard-centered offense.
Q: Who is your Finals MVP and why?
Raphielle Johnson: Jayson Tatum. There was some controversy regarding the Eastern Conference Finals MVP; I personally did not have a problem with Jaylen Brown winning it. Tatum wasn’t his most efficient self against the Pacers, but he still produced solid numbers. I expect him to be better against the Mavericks, and a Boston championship would likely net him the Bill Russell Most Valuable Player award.
Noah Rubin: Jayson Tatum. Even if Luka Doncic averages 40/10/10, the best player on the winning team is going to get this award. Jaylen Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP despite Tatum having more points, rebounds and assists in the series. Not to say that the voters got it wrong, but I don’t expect that result to repeat if Tatum has better numbers once again. Tatum wasn’t great the last time they made the Finals, so I expect him to be much better this time around.
Zak Hanshew: I’m picking Dallas because they have the best player in the series and a man who should have received more love as the league’s MVP. Of course, I’m picking Luka Doncic to win Finals MVP.
Ameer Tyree: Jayson Tatum. Jayson Tatum has been overshadowed by Jaylen Brown at times. He’s the best player on the best team at the end of the day, though. Luka Doncic might end up taking and making more shots, but Boston is built to win the series and winning team always has a player named MVP.
Q: Who will be the X factor of the series?
Raphielle Johnson: I’m going with Al Horford. Even though Kristaps Porzingis is expected back for Game 1, Horford’s presence within the rotation will remain important. The veteran center is better equipped to punish Dallas’ bigs offensively than Rudy Gobert, as evidenced by the seven 3-pointers Horford made in Game 3 of the conference Finals. Against Indiana, he averaged 12.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.8 blocks, and 2.8 3-pointers in 35 minutes, shooting 46.2% from the field and 80.0% from the foul line. Horford’s play/production has improved by the round, out of necessity due to the Porzingis injury, but it’s a clear sign that he still has plenty to give. If he can continue on that path, Boston will be well-positioned to win the title.
Noah Rubin: Kristaps Porzingis. One advantage that Dallas can exploit is forcing Porzingis to switch onto Luka and Kyrie. Doncic obviously had a number of big shots over Rudy Gobert in the conference finals, and Boston will need to avoid that matchup as much as possible. Porzingis needs to be able to hold his own in those situations and force Daniel Gafford to guard him on the perimeter, which will open up driving lines for their star scorers. However, things will get difficult for the Celtics if the Mavs are able to take advantage of Porzingis as a defender, since everyone else can be effective when switched onto Luka or Kyrie.
Zak Hanshew: Dereck Lively II immediately springs to mind here following an impressive rookie campaign and even more impressive postseason performance. The X factor here, however, is Kyrie Irving. Despite boasting a number of quality defenders, Boston will have its hands full with Luka Doncic, and the team will have to settle for slowing him down or wearing him out rather than completely neutralizing him. In two matchups with the Celtics in the regular season, Luka averaged 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds and 12.0 assists on 47.3% shooting. Irving, on the other hand, averaged just 21.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists on just 41.8% shooting. This year’s playoffs did a phenomenal job in showing how important role players are, but both Luka AND Kyrie will need to be elite to slay the Eastern Conference’s 65-win juggernaut. Irving is not liked in Boston, so there will be an added element of vitriol when he faces his former team in Boston.
Ameer Tyree: Derrick White has been as hot as any Celtic on offense at times this postseason while also being a defensive linchpin. If his shotmaking pop early in this series he could be the player who makes Boston overwhelming. Especially because he’ll likely end up getting a Kyrie Irving matchup assignment.
Q: Which team/player is under the most pressure?
Raphielle Johnson: Tatum, Brown, and the Celtics. We’ve seen these two stars come up short multiple times in their respective careers. While Tatum is still 26 and Brown 27, patience isn’t exactly a strength of most fans and analysts. Add in the fact that the Celtics rolled through the regular season and the playoffs, and they’re no denying who will be under the most pressure in this series.
Noah Rubin: Celtics/Jayson Tatum. Boston has made the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight seasons and in five of Tatum’s seven years in the league. That is an impressive feat, but this is only their second appearance in the NBA Finals during that stretch. After losing to the Heat in the conference finals last year, they reloaded by adding Porzingis and Holiday, and White has been incredible this season. They’ve even had players like Payton Pritchard step up this year in an expanded role. This is a stacked team that was built to win the championship, and it would be a disappointment if they didn’t get it done. On the other side, this is the Mavs first trip to the NBA Finals without Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas wasn’t even in the Play-In Tournament last year, and now they’re four wins away from a ring. Doncic will eventually have pressure on him to win a ring every year, but it’s only his first appearance. Boston has to get it done this year, or the narratives will get ugly.
Zak Hanshew: I’ve got to concur with Raph, here. Boston continues to win in the regular season and in the playoffs, but the core of Tatum and Brown has yet to bring home any hardware. This is arguably the most talented roster the duo has ever played with, and if they can’t get it done after going 12-2 in the Eastern Conference, this season will be seen as a massive failure. Tatum’s name is often mentioned when NBA fans and analysts try to name the top-5 or top-10 players in the league, though he’s gotten a reputation as someone who wilts in big games. Can he overcome that reputation and change the narrative on what’s been an otherwise phenomenally successful career to date?
Ameer Tyree: Jayson Tatum is the player facing the most pressure. The young star is 0-1 in the NBA Finals and has benefited from amazing team structure for years.
Q: What does this mean for X player legacy?
Raphielle Johnson: Luka Doncic will be the new face of the NBA if the Mavericks win the title. He’s never been “disrespected” in the conversations regarding the league’s best players, but maybe his name should be mentioned more with regard to who will lead the league in the post-LeBron/Curry/KD years. Doncic has been playing at a high level since his early teenage years at Real Madrid, and he didn’t skip a beat once he arrived in Dallas. However, the difference now is that he has a team that’s built to win a championship. Get it done now, and this may signal the beginning of the “Doncic Era” in the NBA.
Noah Rubin: Al Horford is a Hall of Famer with a ring. This take feels a little bold to me, which is why I like it. Horford won two rings in college at Florida and has made the All-Star Game five times as a pro. He also has one All-NBA third team, one All-Defensive second team and made the All-Rookie first team. Add in another ring to his resume, and the case gets stronger. Entering this series, Basketball Reference has him at a 12.2% chance to make the Hall of Fame, so a ring would give him a fighting chance. He isn’t a lock to make it, but I think he has a strong case with a ring, especially if he continues to play past this season.
Zak Hanshew: Kyrie Irving is a top-5 PG of all time. Magic Johnson and Steph Curry are cemented among the top-5 at the position, and guys like John Stockton, Allen Iverson and Oscar Robertson often make their way into the discussion. Irving is regarded as arguably the best ball handler ever, but he can etch his name into another all-time list with four more wins. With a second Finals victory for a second team and a strong Finals performance, it will be tough to exclude Irving from the top-5 PG conversation.
Ameer Tyree: Tatum wants to take another step and become an undisputed top-5 player. The discussion could shift from him being a promising, young superstar to a disappointment with another championship loss.
Q: Which of these guys (if any) can boost/diminish his 2024-25 fantasy stock with a big/poor performance?
Raphielle Johnson: A player who could potentially boost his 2024-25 fantasy stock in this series is PJ Washington. Based on his Yahoo ADP (128.1), he wasn’t a player most managers expected to see produce a top-100 season. However, he was a top 100 player after being traded to Dallas, finishing just outside of that threshold in season-long value. Playing off of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving did result in a slight decrease in Washington’s scoring, but the rebounds, steals, and blocks all increased.
Noah Rubin: Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II. They both have helped their stock already, and now they’ll have one more series for us to evaluate. Will one of them seize control of the starting center minutes? Will one of them falter, forcing the other to play more minutes? Will they both play well enough to provide value in a minutes split. This four-game series shouldn’t be the only factor ahead of drafts next season, but if one of them plays noticeably better, the rotation could swing in favor of either big heading into next season.
Zak Hanshew: It’s got to be PJ Washington. At this point, fantasy managers know what they’ll get from Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Both guys will be great rebounders and blockers with the occasional scoring outburst when the lobs are plentiful. Can Washington consistently be the guy we hoped he would be for Charlotte? Can he score and rebound at a high level while hitting threes and making a concerted effort on defense?
Ameer Tyree: PJ Washington’s long-range shooting was huge in the Western Conference Finals and he’s effectively working as his team’s third option on offense. An impressive NBA Finals performance could help him lock in a significant role in 2024-25 after falling by the wayside in his last run with the Hornets.
