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Week 6 of the college football (and DFS) season is quickly approaching, with lots of big games on this week’s slate up for consideration.
Perhaps Matt Corral and KJ Jefferson can combine to give us the shootout we hoped to see last week in Alabama vs. Ole Miss. Or maybe Maryland can redeem itself in a tough road match against Ohio State following a rough 51-14 loss to Iowa last Friday night. [[ad:athena]]
Rivalries are days away from being renewed, as recent developments over the last several days have opened the door for opportunity on this weekend’s DFS slate as well. Taking a look at some efficiency based numbers and DraftKings main slate prices, here are a few players I like heading into this weekend’s games.
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee QB
Game: Tennessee (-10.5) vs. South Carolina - O/U 56.5
DraftKings Price: $7,900
Looking over this weekend’s slate, I tried to force myself away from Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker several times, but simply couldn’t bring myself to do it.
Hooker has started the last three games for Tennessee, taking over for air yards king Joe Milton after the team’s Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh.
In those three starts, which included back-to-back road games at Florida and Missouri, Hooker has completed 45-of-67 for 645 passing yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also rushed 37times for 167yards and two more touchdowns, averaging 28.5 DraftKings points along the way.
Hooker has been on a heater as of late, and boasts the title of, “Most Efficient Fantasy QB on the Slate” (along with Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson) in terms of fantasy points per completion and per attempt.
On the season, Hooker is averaging 1.8 points per completion, however, if you look at only the games he has started, that efficiency number gets a slight bump to 1.9 points per completion.
In points per attempt, Hooker is tied for the lead as well at 1.2 points per attempt on the season. He again stands alone at the top if you account for only his starts, in which he has averaged 1.3 points per attempt.
Hooker’s best game of the season came last week at Missouri, when he led the Vols to a 62-24 victory over the Tigers when he threw for 225 yards and three scores, and rushing for another 80 yards and a touchdown.
The Volunteers get a much tougher matchup at home this weekend, as they face a South Carolina defense that ranks 25th in the nation in yards allowed per game (297.2) and is tied for 23rd in the nation in points allowed per game (17.4). But South Carolina’s lofty defensive rankings may not be what they’re cracked up to be come Saturday.
To date, South Carolina has not faced many offenses as potent as Tennessee’s, and when it did, the end result was a 40-13 road loss to Georgia.
The Gamecocks sit at 3-2 on the year with wins over FCS Eastern Illinois and FBS foes East Carolina and Troy. Both FBS teams rank outside the top 50 in points per game and boast a combined record of 5-5. The Volunteers, on the other hand, are 10th in the nation in points scored (40.8) and are 19th in yards per game at 473.6.
South Carolina also ranks at the bottom third of the nation in yards per game with 328.8, and could face a difficult task on moving the ball against Tennessee, who Pro Football Focus has graded as the 28th best defense in the nation (83.7).
What makes Hooker especially attractive on this weekend’s slate is his $7,900 price tag, which ranks as 12th most expensive quarterback this weekend. Combining his recent success through the air with his highly efficient play and rushing floor makes Hooker an intriguing add for this weekend.
Tayon Fleet-Davis, Maryland RB
Game: Ohio State (-21) vs Maryland - O/U 71
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Maryland is fresh off a devastating loss that was difficult to watch for more reasons than the 51-14 score.
Early in the second quarter, the Terps lost star wide receiver Dontay Demus Jr. on a kick return that led to Demus’ knee taking a substantial amount of damage and him being carted off the field. Since that injury, Demus has now been declared out for the season, as Maryland is left to figure out it will make up for the 57 receptions, 507 yards and three touchdowns that was lost last week.
The answer, at least to some degree, could lie in redshirt senior running back Tayon Fleet-Davis.
Through Maryland’s first five games of the season, Fleet-Davis has rushed 47 times for 331 yards and four touchdowns, and is 10th in the nation among running backs in receptions (16). Fleet-Davis’ receiving line of 16/114/1 is enough for him to be considered one of the more versatile backs in the country, and is Maryland’s premiere pass-catching back.
Per Pro Football Focus, Fleet-Davis leads all Maryland running backs with 98 snaps on passing downs, with Isaiah Jacobs being the next closest behind him at 40.
If Maryland is going to lean on Fleet-Davis in this one, on the road against Ohio State could be just the team to do it against.
The Buckeyes are allowing 146.4 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, and opposing running backs are averaging 27.34 points per game against the Buckeyes on DraftKings. While Fleet-Davis only has 35% of the team’s running back carries, he has also only drawn 10 rushing attempts over the last two weeks.
In those games, Fleet-Davis rushed for 7/60/2 in a blowout win over Kent State. He also logged three receptions for 33 yards in that game, finishing with 24.3 fantasy points. Then in last week’s blowout loss to Iowa, Fleet-Davis saw only three carries for 20 yards and caught two passes for an additional 12 yards. That was likely due to the horrible combination of Maryland trailing 34-7 at halftime, the Terrapins having seven turnovers, and Maryland just wanting to escape the game with its starters unscathed.
Betting on a good day from Fleet-Davis is betting on a good game from Maryland, who enters the weekend as 21-point underdogs. They’ll likely need to avoid a total blowout for Fleet-Davis to see significant run in this one.
The upside here is if Fleet-Davis hits at his $5,900 price, he opens your roster up for other strong plays on the weekend. He would need 17.7 points to 3x his price against Ohio State.
Fleet-Davis ranks fourth among running backs this weekend in fantasy points per touch (1.5) and is averaging seven yards per carry. His PPR upside could be boosted with the loss of Demus for the season.
Dontayvion Wicks, Virginia WR
Game: Louisville (-2.5) vs. Virginia - O/U 69
DraftKings Price: $7,000
It’s hard to not want several pieces of this game, which has one of the highest projected totals on the weekend and an over/under of 69 points.
Louisville quarterback Micale Cunningham ($9,700) is averaging 34.8 points per game, while Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong ($9,200) is close behind at 33.1 points per game. Neither team features particularly strong defenses either.
In regards to yards per game, the Cardinals and Cavaliers are allowing 435.6 and 412.8 yards per game respectively, as Virginia holds a slight advantage in points allowed per game at 27.6. Offensively, both offenses rank in the top-35 in yards per game, with each team also averaging over thirty points per game.
Everything about this game sets up perfectly for a shootout, and a productive fantasy day. This is especially the case for Virginia, who has spent the majority of the season airing it out to the tune of 46.4 pass attempts per game, the third most of any team.
On the receiving end of these passes is wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks, who has hauled in 24 receptions for 535 yards and five touchdowns on the year, averaging 22.3 yards per reception.
Wicks has been an absolute deep threat for the Cavaliers this season. According to Pro Football Focus, Wicks has an average depth of target of 20.3 yards, and has caught 7-of-12 contested targets. He has found the end zone now in four straight games, and is averaging eight targets per game.
Of the receivers on this weekend’s slate, Wicks ranks sixth in fantasy points per game (22.8) but is second in points per reception at 4.8.
Through the first five games of the season, Virginia’s offense has been a breeding ground for fantasy points. The Cavaliers have four pass catchers who are averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game or more, and five pass catchers who have 233 or more receiving yards on the season.
Additionally, tight end Jelani Woods, who has 16 receptions for 247 yards and three touchdowns on the season, is questionable with a foot injury and missed last weekend’s game against Miami.
Whether Woods plays or not, Wicks appears to be in a prime position to smash. He’s one of the most efficient receivers on the slate, has the sixth highest price point and is on the verge of a shootout against Louisville.
He’s not the only player from this game I want in my lineups this weekend, but he’s at the top of the list.
