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Braydon Johnson Oklahoma State at TCU - Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (FD)
Johnson had been getting starter’s reps over the first four games of Oklahoma State’s season, recording 17 catches on 31 targets for 360 yards, 21.2 YPC and three touchdowns. However, last week against Texas Tech, Johnson saw just 14 snaps (according to PFF), receiving zero targets after receiving a concussion last week. In his absence, Jaden Bray finally returned and played a full complement of snaps while Bryson Green had a breakout performance catching 5-of-9 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown. With OSU now fielding three outside wide receivers for two spots, and Johnson questionable after coming off an injury, it’s entirely possible we see Johnson’s snaps get cut which is going to mean he will have to rely on a long gain as opposed to volume in order to hit this mark, which increases the degree of difficulty on the road against a TCU team that fields the second best rush offense in the country and plays at the 86th slowest pace. I think the Horned Frogs try to control the clock and slow the game down a bit. It will be interesting to see how the playing time shakes out in the wide receiver corps, but no matter what I think Johnson is in for a playing time decrease.
Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami at Virginia Tech - Over 232.5 Passing Yards - (FD) (Ladder - 275+ = +250)
Entering the season Van Dyke had major NFL Draft hype alongside Anthony Richardson, Devin Leary and Jaren Hall, who are all vying to be considered the 2023 QB4. However with the arrival of a more conservative play caller in HC Mario Cristobal combined with a depleted WR corps, Miami has had a slower transition than the Hurricanes faithful would like to see. However things came together last week against the porous UNC defense as Van Dyke completed 42-of-57 passes for 496 yards, 8.7 YPA and a 3-to-1 ratio. Virginia Tech is riding a three game losing streak where they allowed 45, 41 and 33 points and is averaging 134 fewer yards per game than the U thus far (467-to-333). With VT first year HC Brent Pry still pulling things together personnel wise and Miami averaging 315 passing yards per game while proving they are capable of moving the ball, though not scoring as efficiently in the red zone as you’d like to see. Fortunately all we’re looking at for the purpose of this wager is yardage, and at a dirt-low 232.5 passing yards, I think Van Dyke is more than capable of clearing that reasonable number and is an intriguing Ladder Play at +250 if he throws for Over 275+ yards.
Charlie Jones, WR, Purdue vs. Nebraska - Under 99.5 Receiving Yards (DK)
Jones was an early feel good story for the Boilermakers, as the Iowa transfer sizzled with three straight 130+-yard games while receiving an absurd 42 targets in that span. However since then his effectiveness has taken a downturn with Jones posting receiving yardage totals of 59, 55 and 15 yards last week against Maryland where he caught 3-of-7 targets, both season lows. Beat reporters have indicated that Jones practices sparingly at times due to a nagging unspecified injury that he’s playing through. With Jones’ usage rate and yardage total on a three-week decline, but this yardage total posted at a sky-high 99.5 receiving yards against a Nebraska team who Purdue should be able to beat up on before turning the page to a showdown with @Wisconsin next week. It’s possible Jones hits a home run, but he hasn’t for the last three weeks and this line is too high considering wide receivers have a higher variance than running backs or QBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs RB, Alabama at Tennessee - Over 81.5 Rush Yards(DK)
Tide OC Bill O’Brien was clearly holding back with Gibbs’ rushing usage over the first four games, with the GT transfer receiving 9, 9, 4 and 3 carries while being moved around the formation as an all-purpose weapon. That all changed against Arkansas when Gibbs received 18 carries for 206 yards, 6.1 yards after contact (!), 11.4 YPC and two TDs. He followed the career-high rushing performance by logging 21 totes for 154 yards and 7.3 YPC against a formidable Texas A&M defense last week with Bryce Young out, as Alabama rushed for 388 yards on the Aggies. For their part, Tennessee has the 30th overall ranked rush defense allowing just 2.8 YPC and 89 rushing yards per game. Whether or not Bryce Young is able to suit up is still very much in question, though I still expect Gibbs to get sufficient volume to clear 81.5 rushing yards. I expect the 81.5 rush yards line to shift shortly after this article is printed, as i’m seeing it at 97.5 rushing yards elsewhere, making DK’s 81.5 the outlier. If you’re a Tennessee believer and intend to fade Gibbs, just make sure to shop it so you get the best deal available. I’m backing the Over 81.5 on Jahmyr’s Rushing Yards.
Drake Maye, QB, UNC at Duke - o307.5 Pass (FD)
Maye has been carving up defenses since taking over for NFL DC Sam Howell, throwing for over 300 yards in four out of five games this year with a scorching 9.9 YPA. UNC’s quick pace (24th) and suspect defense has been a boon for Maye’s passing yardage, as the Tarheels are fielding the 114th rated overall defense in the country so far. Duke = 1.1% Pass Down Sack Rate - 35th in defensive line yards allowed. Defensively Duke ranks 78th against the pass, but 23rd against the rush, meaning the Tarheels should probably get more out of their aerial attack than ground assault. The Demon Deacons are really limping into the contest with key injuries on both sides of the ball, which is a problem for a pass rush that ranks second-to-last with a 1.1% passing downs sack rate. With UNC sporting the second best passing offense in the country and ranking 4th in FBS in explosiveness, Maye and company are simply going to be too much for an overmatched Duke defense to handle. FanDuel is hanging the lowest line at Over 307.5 passing yardage.
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas vs. Iowa State - Over 247.5 Pass (FD)
These are two teams headed in diametrically opposed directions. Texas is riding high with superstar QB Quinn Ewers back in the saddle and are fresh off a 49-0 destruction of Oklahoma last weekend. Texas’ 9th ranked offense is humming right along posting top-10 marks in success rate (53%), points per drive (3.5) and explosiveness. Their defense is also light years ahead of last year’s iteration, ranking 11th in yards per play (4.5), 9th in yards per pass (37%) and 29th in suppressing explosiveness. Iowa State is coming off of three straight losses against Baylor (31-24), Kansas (14-11) and Kansas State (10-9), with the last two being borderline unwatchable rock-fights with the Cyclones averaging 294 total yards and 10 points per game in the scoring-free affairs. Their defense does a good job of suppressing big plays but is better against the rush, ranking 56th in yards per pass (7.0) and 57th with a 41% success rate allowed. Texas also has vastly better recruits, ranking 7th in 247Sports overall player rating while Iowa State is fielding just the 54th most talented roster in the country. HC Matt Campbell was able to paper over their talent deficiencies when he had an experienced roster the last two seasons, but with a relatively young team ISU is going to be overwhelmed by this potent Texas offense at home in front of a raucous crowd in Austin. I think Ewers continues his ascension and cruises Over 247.5 Passing Yards.