Quick note: Draft Kings boosted the juice on these Under props from -110 up to -121 across the board.
Spencer Sanders @ Baylor - 219.5 Passing Yards
Despite a great deal of fanfare regarding Oklahoma State’s returning talent and experience, the Cowboys have lost three of their last five games amidst an injury marred campaign. Though HC Mike “The Mullet” Gundy is renowned for his high flying offenses, OSU has clearly preferred a run-based scheme this season, averaging the 10th most rush attempts per game in the country with 46.4. It’s a logical approach considering the RB corps of Chuba, LD Brown and rising star Dezmon Jackson are running behind a punishing and experienced offensive line.
However when Gundy needed to reach back and take a deep shot, Tylan Wallace was there to challenge opposing corners in one-on-one situations. I use the past tense because OSU will not have the luxury of their superstar wideout’s presence this week thanks to a knee injury sustained last Saturday against TCU. The Cowpokes are only averaging 30 passes per game, and face a Dave Aranda-led Baylor defense that is allowing only 185 passing YPG, which is the 16th best mark in the country. Conversely, BU is allowing a rather generous 170 rushing YPG.
Clearly OSU’s strength is their rushing attack while Baylor’s weakness is rush defense. I’ve never been particularly enamored with Spencer Sanders’ passing acumen, and that feeling is only exacerbated by Tylan Wallace’s absence. I’m calling for a heavy dose of the run game from OSU, and am backing the UNDER 219.5 on Sanders’ passing yards as a result.
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Kadarius Toney vs. LSU - 63.5 Receiving Yards
The Gators’ potent aerial attack has been one of the true success stories of the abbreviated 2020 season, averaging the third most passing yards per game in the country with 383 YPG while completing the eighth most passes in the country with an average of 27 per game. Conversely Florida is only registering 31 rushing attempts per game which ranks only 117th in the nation. The pass-heavy approach has been wildly successful, as HC Dan Mullen is producing the eighth most yards per play with a sterling 7.4 YPP average.
They also have the pleasure of playing one of the worst defenses in the country in an LSU squad that is allowing 313 passing yards per game and 33.4 PPG. Beyond that, LSU has been besieged by opt outs and transfer portal entrants in addition to this week’s announcement that they are self-imposing a 2021 bowl-ban due to various NCAA violations. How magnanimous of them. The walls are crumbling in Baton Rouge for a school that just wants their 2020 season to end. Throw in the fact they are starting true freshman Max Johnson and it’s clear that the Tigers are in big trouble against the Gators this week.
For his part, Kadarius Toney has raised his national profile thanks to his incredible burst and shiftiness that makes covering him in the middle of the field an almost impossible task. He has recorded at least six receptions in six of his last eight games while posting at least 107 yards and a touchdown in two of his last three. The Gators haven’t forgotten the beating LSU dropped on them on the way to their national title last season and will show no mercy now that the tables have turned. When Toney reaches the end zone and hits the OVER 63.5, the Froton household will be blaring the seminal Notorious B.I.G/Duran Duran hook - Ka-Ka...Kadarius!
Connor Bazelak vs. Georgia - 229.5 Passing Yards
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Missouri signal caller. Against the lower rung defenses of Arkansas, Vanderbilt and LSU, Bazelak easily cleared the 300-yard mark. However against Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama, he fell well short of this week’s 229.5 number. There is no in-between.
While Georgia’s defense is only allowing 338 YPG, their much ballyhooed unit that returns 10 starters from a year ago has not quite lived up to the considerable hype they received entering the 2020 season. A great deal of the problem for the Dawgs stemmed from an inept quarterback position in the early going that has since been rectified with the belated insertion of J.T. Daniels under center. With a more functional offense, UGA has had more advantageous field position helping the defense shut down South Carolina and hold the high-flying Ole Miss offense to only 24 points the last two weeks. Throw in a stellar effort against Kentucky where the Wildcats were stifled to only three points, and the Georgia defense has locked up three of their last four opponents.
Now that UGA has righted the ship, i’m expecting an efficient performance from the Dawgs on both sides of the ball. As such, I am backing the UNDER 229.5 play on Bazelak while also throwing my support behind the Over on a pretty low 240.5 passing line for J.T. Daniels, as the redshirt sophomore USC transfer is looking to make a statement in his final game of the regular season.
Graham Mertz @ Iowa - 210.5 Passing Yards
Wisconsin hasn’t had a quarterback with the kind of arm talent Mertz possesses since Russell Wilson grad-transferred in from NC State many years ago. The four-star, top-10 recruit wrested the starting job from Jack Coan even before the upperclassman injured his ankle, and has held onto the job now that he has returned. Though still prolific on the ground, averaging 200 YPG rushing, the Badgers offense isn’t running the same four-yards and a cloud of dust system of the Barry Alvarez era. This Paul Chryst team is playing with an increased pace, averaging 75 plays per game, which is good for 22nd most in the country.
With a more competent QB at the helm, Wisconsin threw 34 passes last week against a rock-solid Indiana defense and put the ball in the air 41 times against the well-coached Northwestern defense two games ago. While Iowa’s defense is another credible unit, they are ranked at 119th in passes defended with only 1.9 per game. The Hawkeyes offense is producing 32.3 PPG, which helps bolster the Over play from Mertz, as Wisconsin has shown much more willingness to put the ball in the air when trailing, irrespective of the quality of the defenses they are up against. If the game flow follows the recent trends, Mertz is going to hit the OVER 210.5 in a competitive contest against Iowa.
John Metchie @ Arkansas - 57.5 Receiving Yards
For all the tangible improvements we’ve seen from HC Sam Pittman this season, Arkansas still ranks 103rd in the country in total yards allowed with opposing offenses racking up 33 points per game against them. However what I like is OC Kendall Briles has proven to be the real deal when it comes to running an offense, leading the Razorbacks to a commendable 34.6 PPG and 429 yards per game. I’m led to believe they can at least keep the game respectable enough against the vaunted Alabama juggernaut that the Crimson Tide will have to play their starters into the fourth quarter.
On Bama’s side, it’s hard to overstate just how ruthlessly efficient the elephants have been so far. Mac Jones ranks second in the nation with 12.2 yards per attempt and fifth overall with 371 YPG. For John Metchie’s purposes, we’ve seen his prop number steadily decrease from the high-70’s all the way down to 57.5 yards this week. I’ve made a decent amount of money fading his O/U line over the past few weeks, but now i’m feeling like he has finally entered value territory. Last week against LSU Metchie caught four passes for 58 yards, while the previous week against Auburn he posted six receptions for 55 yards and two touchdowns. Arkansas has a more capable offense (if Feleipe Franks plays) than either of those schools, which means Bama won’t be taking their foot off the gas at halftime.
With Alabama’s wideouts averaging 16.6 yards per reception, and the likelihood of the Razorbacks keying on Devonta Smith, Metchie only needs to catch four passes to smash the Over here. I’m calling for the sophomore wideout to be showcased more than in recent weeks with the SEC Championship game against Florida looming next weekend and Bama wanting to avoid over-using Devonta in the second-half. It’s time to take the OVER on the “Metchie and Scratchy Show.”
Last Week - 4-1
Overall CFB Props Record - 40-17
