It takes 252 days.
On the second day, the process begins. Small exercises that focus on regaining range of motion. On the 10th day, walking without crutches becomes a possibility. Eventually, walking comfortably without crutches comes back. Range of motion, muscle strengthening, balance work and any other minor issues that need to be addressed are sorted out over the next 168 days or so. Those days precede running, hopping, dropping, jumping and ultimately, sprinting as well as changing direction.
By the time 252 days have passed, the ACL rehabilitation should have finished.
252 days seems like a very long time. It’s not really. Last year, the NFL’s offseason was 205 days long. From today, the College Football Playoff Final is 48 days away, the Super Bowl is 60 days away and the NFL draft is 162 days away. If the NFL season starts on the first Thursday of September next year, the start of the next NFL season is 295 days away. Presuming that Todd Gurley has his ACL surgery within the next month, he should be ready to return for the beginning of his rookie season with plenty of time to spare.
That is presuming that Gurley doesn’t have any complications in his return and that his cartilage is found to be intact when the surgeon opens him up.
Gurley’s short-term outlook shouldn’t be considered problematic, but the reality is his draft stock will be determined by his long-term outlook. Teams may fear investing in a running back with a torn ACL because we recently saw Marcus Lattimore retire because of knee issues without ever playing an NFL game. Lattimore’s injuries were much worse than Gurley’s though. They may have started with a torn ACL, but his second knee injury was the key to the demise of his career as he tore multiple ligaments and seemingly dislocated his knee.
One ACL tear shouldn’t be a major deterrent As Jene Bramel, Doctor and Football Medical Expert, points out: “Long term, he’ll be at higher risk of another ACL injury to the same knee in his career. But the risk is relatively small and it’s possible he can have a long, healthy, and productive NFL career.” Bramel noted that the added risk is relatively small is what’s most important here. We’ve already seen multiple top tier NFL backs tear their ACLs at different stages of their careers before returning to top form. Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Frank Gore are all relatively recent examples.
While Bramel also notes that Gurley’s draft stock will be hurt because he won’t be able to work out for teams and his rehab will be scrutinized, it should be noted that the NFL’s mindset on these injuries appears to be changing. Just last year Dominique Easley was selected in the first round of the draft by the New England Patriots. Easley is a pass rusher, so his positional value is greater, but he had two torn ACL injuries and both the Patriots and Seattle Seahawks were seemingly ready to invest a first round pick in him.
Easley was/is a special talent, but so is Gurley. He may play a less valuable position, but teams that aren’t trapped in that way of thinking should be willing to invest a first round pick in him. If Gurley can become the next Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch, then his position value is essentially irrelevant. Based on his tape entering this season, there was no question that Gurley could become that kind of back. Before being suspended and injured this season, he reaffirmed that potential.
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When you watch Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon, it’s immediately easy to see his speed. When you watch Gurley, it’s immediately easy to see his all-around athleticism. Unlike the now infamous Trent Richardson, Gurley doesn’t have quickness issues or an ability to accelerate after contact. Gurley has the power, quickness and acceleration to be effective in a variety of ways on different types of plays. He has the ability to sustain his top speed over long periods, giving him the ability to break run away from defenders while also making him a very dangerous kick returner.
There may be some concern over his overall athleticism coming back from his torn ACL injury, but presuming he works hard through his rehabilitation, that shouldn’t be an issue over the long term even if it hampers him somewhat during his rookie season.
While there isn’t necessarily another back in college football with Gurley’s physical tools, his physical skills aren’t what make him a potentially special prospect. Instead, it’s the combination of his physical skills and his natural comfort as a runner.
Much like Arian Foster on the next level, Gurley shows off an outstanding ability to recognize cutback lanes as they are formed. He rarely reacts to something after it happens, but rather reads the development of what is in front of him and makes his decision early enough to exploit the defense. On this touchdown run against Clemson, that is something that was apparent.
When Gurley gets the ball, he is moving towards the right sideline on a toss play. He has seven blockers in front of him, with seven defenders flowing to that side of the field. Even though he has enough blockers in front of him to account for each defender, he is still unlikely to find much space if he continues on his current path. The key defender for the defense is over midfield, the eighth defender who is highlighted on the above image.
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That defender is crucial for the success and failure of this play. At this point, he is in a good position to react to Gurley if he cuts back and meets the running back in the hole. Therefore, Gurley can’t cut back yet if he has indeed recognized the cutback opportunity.
Gurley continues his current trajectory before planting his foot aggressively to turn back towards the cutback lane. At this point, the key defender has fully committed to flowing with the blocking of the offensive line and he is covered up by a blocker. Gurley is going to run through a wide running lane, which is something that makes evaluation difficult, but he is the primary reason for that running lane being so wide. He found that running lane rather than having it presented to him with ease.
Although Gurley has a wide running lane to run through, a defender gets off his block from the inside to disrupt his route towards it. Gurley is forced to accelerate away from him and brush off his desperate arm tackle with his strength. Once on the second level, Gurley is able to slide away from a defensive back and comfortably extend his run into the end zone.
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It must be acknowledged that we have no way of knowing for certain if Gurley saw this cutback lane immediately or if he reacted to it after his initial step, but he makes this kind of play on a regular basis. It’s very difficult to make this kind of play regularly unless you are seeing cutback lanes as they develop
Georgia’s offensive line did give Gurley a lot of help at times this season when he was on the field, but he has consistently proven to be a back who highlights the positives of his blocking and masks the negatives. He understands how to read his blocks and set up immediate or second-level defenders while also knowing when to be aggressive and when to be patient. With precise and quick feet, he has the ability to pick his way through traffic while fluidly maneuvering his upper body or lowering his shoulders to power his way through cracks.
There are many talented running back prospects in this year’s class, but none boast the skill set of Gurley.
He is the kind of back who should expect to be extremely productive in any scheme or situation in the NFL. He doesn’t need to be used in a specific way to highlight his strengths because he is strong in every area. His blocking isn’t spectacular, but he’s a willing blocker and a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. Pass blocking as a running back in the NFL is largely about effort because only a handful of backs are ever given strenuous assignments.
While the ACL injury is a legitimate concern, it should be used as a reason to avoid Gurley in favor of a less talented player. Even with this injury, he still looks like the most likely back to be one of the very best in the NFL for the next eight or nine years. A large percentage of NFL backs are replacement-level because of the number of sheer amount of talented players who play the position. Very few are irreplaceable and Gurley could prove to be one of those. Position value shouldn’t really matter when discussing those types of talents.
