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Sam Howell | North Carolina | 6’1/225
Comp: Baker Mayfield
A native of Monroe, North Carolina, Howell is spearheading a renaissance of Tar Heel football alongside former Texas HC Mack Brown. Nearly didn’t happen. Howell initially planned to play against the Heels in college.
December 18, 2018. First day of the early-signing period. Howell has been committed to Willie Taggart’s Florida State Seminoles since the spring, but he flips and signs with UNC instead. Heel Nation rejoiced. Opposite vibe at FSU. The Tallahassee Democrat summed up the somber state of affairs the next day presciently:
Howell’s flip had as much to do with UMass’ football program as FSU or UNC’s. The Minutemen hired former FSU OC Walt Bell as head coach on Dec. 3, 2018, a little over two weeks before Signing Day. Bell had spent the previous year trying to fit Jimbo Fisher’s square-shaped recruits into Taggart’s round-peg offensive system.
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It turns out Bell also spent a good chunk of that year developing a relationship with Howell. Howell had committed to play for Bell, in Bell’s offense, and wasn’t necessarily loyal to Taggart. Taggart and his staff flew out to visit Howell immediately after Bell’s departure to try to solidify his commitment. But Howell was now listening to other pitches.
Howell’s first meeting with UNC HC Mack Brown came after Brown was hired but before Brown had hired assistant coaches. It didn’t go well for the Heels. “He kind of said in a nice, polite way, ‘Go get you a staff, go get an offensive coordinator, tell me what you’re going to do on offense, then I’ll talk to you, but right now, I’ll just be watching,” Brown said.
Brown, one of the great recruiters in college football history, did as he was told. And boy did he make a clever offensive coordinator hire, stealing Phil Longo from Ole Miss. The Rebels had been hit with sanctions, and HC Matt Luke’s seat was white-hot. Longo tried to recruit Howell to Ole Miss, but Howell let it be known that he didn’t want to move from North Carolina to Mississippi to play for a school under sanctions. He also let it be known that he loved Longo’s offense.
Longo agreed to become Brown’s first OC at UNC on Dec. 12, 2018. Four days later, on Dec. 16, a Monday, Howell visited Chapel Hill. Brown and Longo pitched Howell on staying home. Their one and only chance, with the opening of the signing period 48 hours away.
“I knew [Howell] liked the offense, we had a little bit of a relationship and the biggest negative I had coming from a different school was no longer there,” Longo said. “I was coming from the in-state school, the top in-state school, so that obviously was an advantage.”
Around this time, Howell’s father, Duke, underwent triple-bypass surgery, giving Howell even more incentive to stay closer to home. The next day, Tuesday Dec. 17, Howell called Taggart and told him what the college football world would learn 24 hours later: He was headed to UNC.
Howell started as a true freshman. Over two seasons, he’s exceeded the hype, throwing for 7,227 yards with a 68/14 TD/INT ratio. Howell’s accuracy improved from 61% to 68% as a true sophomore, during UNC’s run to the Orange Bowl last year, and his YPA spiked from 8.6 to 10.3. UNC was 5-18 the two years before Howell and Brown arrived. The Heels are 15-10 since.
Howell’s flip to UNC marked the beginning of the Tar Heels’ ascension under Mack Brown and, for all intents and purposes, ended the Willie Taggart era at Florida State. Less than one calendar year after Howell signed, FSU cut the second-largest* buyout check in college football history ($18 million) to show Taggart the door before the end of his second season. Florida State is 14-20 since 2018 -- they’ve basically swapped spots with UNC in the ACC hierarchy.
*Behind Notre Dame’s $18.9 million buyout of Charlie Weis
Which, of course, brings us back to Howell. The youngster has proven to be a maestro of Phil Longo’s system. Any discussion of Longo’s philosophy mentions two things: 1) simplicity for his players, 2) explosive results. Longo runs fewer than 30 plays, but each has post-snap options that allow the offense to exploit what the defense is giving it. The system simplifies Howell’s post-snap reads. Howell has run it as well as you could expect of any teenager.
Howell will face questions about his ability to read the entire field after spending his career in a system that often cut the field in half for him. But I was pleasantly surprised to see a smattering of non-RPO dropbacks where Longo gave Howell the freedom of a traditional dropback.
Howell acquitted himself well. He sees the field well and makes fluid, self-assured decisions. If Option 1 isn’t there, he snaps to the other side of the field for Option 2 or 3, lower-body cocked to fire if a throwing window pops up. Doesn’t need extra time to widen his base to begin his throwing motion. No hesitancy to let it rip. Snap-bang, the ball comes out quick.
Howell is an even-keeled sniper who never takes his eye out of the scope or his finger off the trigger. Drops dimes surrounded by bodies. Very slick at finding throwing platforms in tight quarters. This is what makes it so dangerous to send waves of pressure at Howell. If it doesn’t get home very quickly, you’re leaving your corners on islands downfield against a quarterback looking for exactly that.
I love his pocket game. Composure and presence beyond his years. Smooth, repeatable release. Howell’s placement and touch evoke Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma. Howell hits receivers on the hands on-the-go and gives his man the best of it in one-on-one shots downfield. He shows off his touch against zone coverage or when attacking the seam, arcing balls over linebackers and corners and in front of the oncoming safety. Very creative thrower.
Tight window throw from Sam Howell (North Carolina QB 7). Despite the risk, really like the way he's able to fit this in there. pic.twitter.com/h9ipHddzlt
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) August 11, 2021
Howell led the nation with 30 big-time throws last year, per PFF. Only three quarterbacks -- Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler -- finished with a higher PFF passing grade on throws 20+ yards downfield. Howell hangs in the pocket and will take a shot to get a throw off. He’s arguably too brave. There were a few games last year where Howell got battered.
Sam Howell had (21) completions in the RZ last year. (12) of them were TDs. Kid is a stud. pic.twitter.com/VYPiTxpn3k
— Aaron Taylor (@AaronTaylorCFB) August 4, 2021
While UNC’s skill talent has been stellar the past two years, the Tar Heels’ line play has been poor. Last season, Howell was sacked 33 times, tied for No. 3 in the nation. Howell is comfortable with heat in his face, and that’s not a bad thing. But there are instances where he needs to make a decision quicker to avoid a negative play.
Howell isn’t a plus athlete, and he doesn’t scare anyone in the open field. But he’s a tough runner who makes good decisions on option/zone-read plays. And he typically makes good decisions when tucking and running, stealing yards on broken plays.
Howell doesn’t have prototypical size. But the success of smaller quarterbacks in recent years, especially his doppelganger Baker Mayfield, greatly mitigates that concern. NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah wrote that Howell’s “lack of height does lead to some tipped balls at the line of scrimmage.” This feels like a false narrative.
Howell has had 11 career passes tipped at the line on 770 attempts. Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in April who stands 6’6, had 21 balls tipped in 1,147 career passes. Last year, Howell and Lawrence tied with five apiece. Mac Jones and Justin Fields, both 6’3, each had six.
When Howell makes a mistake, it tends to be self-inflicted. There are times where he will telegraph a throw because he never took his eyes off his first read before throwing. Howell is so dang comfortable in the pocket. But sometimes that comfort invites trouble, like when Howell starts drifting to the throw-side of the field. He can put himself in tight situations that he doesn’t have the athleticism to escape from. Last year, Howell ranked No. 9 among qualifying quarterbacks in percentage of pressures he shared responsibility in.
Fortunately, Howell is very good under pressure, a key factor I look at when projecting quarterbacks forward. Last season, only Spencer Rattler had a higher PFF passing grade under pressure. Howell, Rattler and Zach Wilson were the only three quarterbacks in the nation that averaged over 13.5 aDOT on pressured throws and earned a PFF grade of 74.0 or higher on those throws. Rattler (68.3%) and Howell (67.6%) finished Nos. 8 and 9, respectively in adjusted accuracy under pressure. This is attributable to Howell’s cool under fire and ability to find a throwing platform in crowded pockets.
We get to see Sam Howell play football in 4 weekspic.twitter.com/yPHrwndEQj
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) August 6, 2021
Howell loses most of his supporting skill cast from last season, with RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter and WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome now in the NFL. But UNC’s offensive line should be better, Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler is a draftable talent himself, and UNC has a deep receiving corps full of exciting prospects.
The ACC Preseason Player of the Year and a Heisman Trophy favorite, Howell doesn’t have much left to prove at the college level. He’s a safe prospect, with an eerily similar game to Baker Mayfield. Howell’s touch, arm-strength, moxie, command of the pocket, creativity* and fearlessness under pressure all suggest a long-time NFL starter.
You guys ever seen an underhand throw in NCAA14?
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) October 16, 2020
I give you Sam Howell. pic.twitter.com/h7SgFISoQj
*Even in NCAA14!
2022 NFL Draft preseason QB rankings
25. Tanner Morgan | Minnesota | 6’2/215
24. Jack Coan | Notre Dame | 6'3/225
23. Anthony Russo | Michigan State | 6'3/245
22. Dorian Thompson-Robinson | UCLA | 6'1/197
21. Graham Mertz | Wisconsin | 6'3/215
20. Myles Brennan | LSU | 6'3/221
19. Dustin Crum | Kent State | 6'1/210
18. Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh | 6'3/219
17. Grayson McCall | Coastal Carolina | 6’3/200
16. D’Eriq King | Miami | 5’11/185
15. Emory Jones | Florida | 6’2/210
14. Dillon Gabriel | UCF | 6’0/186
13. Michael Penix Jr. | Indiana | 6’3/218
12. Jayden Daniels | Arizona State | 6’3/185
11. Brock Purdy | Iowa State | 6’1/212
10. Phil Jurkovec | Boston College | 6’5/226 | Scouting report
9. Desmond Ridder | Cincinnati | 6’4/215 | Scouting report
8. JT Daniels | Georgia | 6’3/210 | Scouting report
7. Tyler Shough | Texas Tech | 6’5/221 | Scouting report
6. Kedon Slovis | USC | 6’3/216 | Scouting report
5. Matt Corral | Ole Miss | 6’1/205 | Scouting report
4. Carson Strong | Nevada | 6’4/215 | Scouting report
3. Malik Willis | Liberty | 6’1/220 | Scouting report
2. Sam Howell | North Carolina | 6’1/225
1. Spencer Rattler: coming next week
