I went through each one of my preseason Power Five columns to see how my season-long Over/Unders panned out. Some of the team capsules I deemed “No Plays” from a gambling perspective, others as “Leans”, as I tried to grade my stances even-handedly, though i’m sure there are mistakes as I chose not to revise any of the columns. I also included my season-long player props column which featured some very appealing lines and is a market currently being underserved that can be exploited next summer.
ACC
https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/article/summer-school/2022-acc-conference-preview-and-overunders
ACC Atlantic
Clemson: Under 10.5 = Win
Florida State: Under 6.5 = Loss
Syracuse: Under 4.5 = Loss
Louisville: Over 6.5 = Win
NC State: Over 8.5 = Loss
Wake Forest: Under 8.5 = Win
Boston College: Under 6.5 = Win
ACC Coastal
UNC: Over 7.5 = Win
Pitt: Over 8.5 = Loss
Duke: Under 3.5 = Loss
Georgia Tech: Under 3.5 = Loss
Miami: Over 8.5 = Loss
Virginia - VOID - (Had the Under 5.5, UVA finished 3-7 at time of season suspension which guarantees Under)
Virginia Tech - VOID - No Play
ACC Total: 5-7-2
Without a doubt the toughest conference to project for me was the ACC, as new Duke HC Mike Elko turned around a Blue Devils program that went 5-14 over the previous two seasons to easily surpass Duke’s meager preseason expectations. Georgia Tech showed promise after dismissing former HC Geoff Collins to earn victories against UNC, Virginia Tech, Pitt and Duke to cover their number, while I leaped head-long into the annual “Miami is Back” trap in an embarrassing misstep. Pitt was a near miss I can live with, though I’m disappointed I didn’t see Florida State coming, credit to HC Jay Norvell on a great season. I clearly got too bullish on NC State picking them to win the ACC on the strength of their defense and the promise of a Devin Leary-led 35+ PPG offense that was never to be (actual NC State PPG = 25.3). Much respect to new Syracuse OC Robert Anae who completely revamped a stagnant offense and helped the Orange reach 7 wins after failing to reach bowl eligibility for three straight seasons. Looking at the ACC from a division perspective, I was at least break-even in the Atlantic with a 4-3 record. But that wretched ACC Coastal, that will soon be justifiably abolished, destroyed me with the exception of UNC. Back to the drawing board in 2023 for the ACC.
Big Ten
https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/article/conference-call/big-ten-win-totals-and-conference-preview
Big Ten East
Indiana: Under 4.5 = Win
Maryland: Over 5.5 = Win
Michigan: Over 9.5 = Win
Michigan State: Under 7.5 = Win
Ohio State: Over 10.5 = Win
Penn State: Under 8.5 = Loss
Rutgers: Under 4 = PUSH
Big Ten West
Illinois: Over 4.5 = Win
Iowa: Over 7.5 = Loss
Minnesota: Over 7.5 = Win
Nebraska: Over 7.5 = Loss
Northwestern: Under 4 = Win
Purdue: Under 7.5 = Loss
Wisconsin: Over 8.5 = Loss
Big Ten Total = 8-5-1
The Big Ten East was essentially my “Anti-Coastal” of this conference, as I managed to project every team accurately besides Penn State who did a magnificent job of replacing 8 starters from their 2021 defense and overcoming Sean Clifford as their starting QB. Doesn’t take a genius to back OSU/Michigan, but I was particularly bullish on the MSU Under and Maryland’s Over, which were both nice hits, while Indiana was a nice profit center for me as well. The Big Ten West was a challenge though, as Iowa’s morose offense simply couldn’t muster 8 wins while my faith in Wisconsin was clearly misplaced. I’m taking a lap for Nebraska’s Over too, indefensible lack of judgment on my part. Nothing but respect for Purdue making the B10 Championship, as I should have weighted their experience at QB and on defense more heavily despite the loss of Karlaftis and David Bell.
Big 12
https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/article/evaluations/big-12-conference-preview
Baylor: Over 7.5 (-110) = Loss
Iowa State: Under 6.5 = Win
Kansas: Over 2.5 = Win
Kansas State: Over 6.5 = Win | Favorite Value to Win Big 12 at +1,500 = Boom
Oklahoma: Under 9.5 = Win
Oklahoma State: Under 8.5 = Win
TCU: Over 6.5 = Lean Over
Texas: Over 8.5 = Loss
Texas Tech: Under 5.5 = Loss
West Virginia: Under 5.5 = Win
Big-12 Total = 7-3 w/Kansas State +1,500 winning the B12 Conference Championship
With Texas still working out the kinks in Year 2 of the Sarkisian era and Oklahoma completely transitioning from Lincoln Riley-to-Brent Venables, the conference proved to be ripe for new challengers. The Big 12 promptly delivered an off-script title game between CFP #3 seed TCU and my +1,500 pick to win the conference - Kansas State that was the highlight of Conference Championship weekend. I thought HC Dave Aranda would have had Baylor more competitive after losing a ton of talent from their stellar 2021 squad, and underestimated first year Texas Tech HC Joey Maguire who did a fine job with the Red Raiders. But there was far more good than bad from the B12, as Kansas was a legitimate feel-good story to go with TCU and Kansas State as overachievers. I had a pulse on the Iowa State, Ok State, West Virginia downturns along with the aforementioned OU disappointment. All-in-all, the Big-12 was one of stronger conferences prediction-wise.
Pac-12
https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/article/evaluations/pac-12-conference-preview-and-win-totals
Pac-12 North
Cal - Under 5.5 = Win
Oregon: Over 8.5 = Win
Oregon State: Over 6.5 = Win
Stanford: Under 4.5 = Win
Washington: Over 7.5 = Win
Washington State: Under 5.5 = Loss
Pac-12 South
Arizona: Over 2.5 = Win | Favorite Play in P12
Arizona State: Under 6.5 = Win
Colorado: Under 2.5 = Win
UCLA: Over 8.5 = Win
USC: Under 9.5 = Loss
Utah: Over 8.5 = Win | +250 My Pick to Win Pac-12
Pac-12 Total = 10-2 including the Conference Champion Utah
If there was a conference preview that i’m most proud of, my Pac-12 predictions were me 2022 magnum opus. Sure, it was nice to bullseye Utah as the Conference Champ at +250, but I was heavily invested in Arizona’s Over and Arizona State’s Under plays in addition to also being leveraged on Oregon State’s Over. Colorado and Stanford’s respective implosions didn’t take a wizard to predict, but I have always been a fan of Washington HC Kalen DeBoer and was very bullish on his ability to turn around the Huskies in the wake of the failed Jimmy Lake/John Donovan era. My faith was well placed with Washington, but i’m still kicking myself for not believing more strongly in new USC HC Lincoln Riley and his ability to transfer-portal an 11-win season into Los Angeles. Props to Wazzu as well, with HC Jake Dickert establishing the best run game the Cougars have had since the pre-Leach era behind Wisconsin transfer Nakia Watson. I thought the previous season’s Rolovich-induced drama-fest would set them back, but I was absolutely wrong.
SEC
https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/article/summer-school/sec-preview-and-overunder-predictions
SEC West:
Arkansas: Under 7.5 (-145) = Play (Win)
Alabama: Over 10.5 (-190) = No Play at -190
Auburn: Under 6.5 (-150) = No Play at -150 | Flier on Over at +130
LSU: Over 7 (-120) = Play (Win)
Mississippi State: Over 6.5 (-130) = Play (Win)
Ole Miss: Over 7.5 (+110) = Lean Over (Win)
Texas A&M: Over 8.5 (-150) = Play (Loss)
SEC East:
Florida: Over 7.5 (-130) = Play (Loss)
Georgia: Over 10.5 (-210) = No Play at -210
Kentucky: Under 7.5 (+135) = Lean Under at +135 (Win)
Missouri: Under 5.5 (+100) = Play (Loss)
South Carolina: Under 6 (-135) = No Play/Lean Under (Loss)
Tennessee: Over 7.5 (-160) = Play (Favorite play of SEC - Win)
Vanderbilt: Over 2.5 (+125) = Lean Over (Win)
SEC Totals = 7-4 on Plays/Leans (8-6 counting No Play opinions)
Up top, the SEC was so heavily juiced with Alabama and Georgia that it made more sense to stay away than pay the vig, so I stayed away from them and Auburn at -150 on the Under 6.5 which turned out to be a dream line in hindsight. The time to play the Tigers’ Under was before the sharps bet it into oblivion, but my article dropped the week before the season started so the line was toast by then. Texas A&M signed the greatest recruiting class in history and has a wealth of replacement talent on the roster to make up for the loss of several talented defensive players. However Jimbo’s archaic offense and a complete lack of continuity at the quarterback position torched the Aggies’ 8.5 Wins Over. MIssouri and South Carolina both overperformed my expectations, which I should have seen coming from the Gamecocks since HC Shane Beamer did such great work to make them bowl eligible in 2021. Florida did me no favors with a 6-6 maiden campaign of HC Billy Napier. On the bright side I hopped on the Tennessee bandwagon despite brutal -160 odds and smelled a rate on Kentucky’s 7.5 at +135. My faith in the overall talent level of LSU was well placed while I owe a debt of gratitude to Kiffin and Leach in the great state of Mississippi for clearing their respective Overs. I feel fortunate to have gone 7-4 in an always tight SEC market.
Season Long Player Props Article:
https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/article/best-bets/cfb-seasonal-player-props-opening-best-bets
CJ Stroud: Over 2,632 Passing Yards = Loss
Sam Hartman: Over 3,047.5 Passing Yards = Win
Caleb Williams: Over 3,010.5 Passing Yards = Win
Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse: Under 1,388.5 Rushing Yards = Win
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, Kentucky: Under 998.5 Rushing Yards = Win
Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State: Under 1100.5 Receiving Yards = Win
Season-Long Player Props Total: 5-1
These were the props I included in my article, but I also sprinkled in Brock Bowers Under 850.5, Hendon Hooker Over 2,930.5 and, amazingly, Tyrone Tracy Under 1,060.5 Receiving Yards (!!!) into my Prize Picks Futures, going a ridiculous 8-1 in total. The initial drop of these lines were, by far, the most profitable portions of the summer, as several of the lines dropped massively within 48-72 hours of the initial release. The one loss I took was Stroud, as I assumed Ohio State would throw at the same, breakneck pace they did in 2021 when the Buckeyes averaged 381 passing yards per game, as opposed to the previous two seasons when they threw for exactly 263 YPG in 2020 and 2019 under HC Ryan Day‘s guidance. A perfect hedge opportunity was available when Draft Kings opened Stroud’s passing at 4,400, creating an 800-yard middle opportunity between the two books. Tucker’s line was unrealistic from the jump based off new OC Anae’s passing rate at UVA which was top-5 in the nation in every year he called plays. He finished with 1,060 rushing yards which allowed 329 yards of room to spare. Hartman was a sweat after he missed the first game of the season with an undisclosed issue, however he still threw for 3,421 yards proving what an absolute joke his 3,047.5 line was. Caleb’s Over was literally never in doubt, and neither was Jayden Reed‘s wonderful 1,100.5 receiving yards Under (636 yards). In fact the only real sweat was Chris Rodriguez’ 998.5 rushing yards, as the Kentucky tailback racked up 904 yards despite being suspended for 4 games. In summation, I will be setting aside a greater portion of my bankroll in 2023 to take advantage of the soft opening releases for these seasonal player props.
Season Long Team Over/Unders:
37-21 = 63.7%
Season Long Team Over/Unders and Player Props Total:
42-22 = 65.6%
