Last season, the Vikings made a surprise finish towards the top of the NFC. With Sam Darnold coming in to start, Minnesota tallied a 14-3 record but lost in the Wild Card round to the Rams. Injury delayed J.J. McCarthy’s turn at the wheel and he is now in line to take the quarterback reigns. A rocky start may be in store as the offense adjusts with McCarthy, but there will still be fantasy opportunity.
2024 Minnesota Vikings Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 25.4 (9th)
Total yards per game: 346.9 (12th)
Plays per game: 62 (18th)
Dropbacks per game: 39.8 (16th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.14 (11th)
Rush attempts per game: 26.9 (14th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.12 (22nd)
Will Kevin O’Connell work his magic with J.J. McCarthy?
Head coach Kevin O’Connell has a history of success with quarterbacks throughout his tenure. There were questions about the Vikings without Kirk Cousins last season, but it was more than a seamless transition to Sam Darnold, who tallied 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
A Kevin O'Connell chart pic.twitter.com/2dh0Dgao63
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 26, 2025
In fact, the offense jumped from No. 22 in points per game and No. 17 in Dropback EPA per play in 2023 to No. 9 and No. 11 in those respective categories for 2024. There will be concerns about J.J. McCarthy starting after a redshirt rookie season due to a torn meniscus. However, O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips have elevated their past quarterbacks and can do it again with a successful offensive scheme. The offensive playmakers and play-calling can elevate McCarthy and boost fantasy scoring.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores returns to lead a strong defense that has the third-most takeaways in the league over the past two seasons. The Vikings will be competitive with Flores’ defense giving the offense more opportunities as it develops with McCarthy.
Passing Game
QB: J.J. McCarthy, Sam Howell
WR: Justin Jefferson, Tim Jones
WR: Jordan Addison, Tai Felton
WR: Jalen Nailor, Rondale Moore
TE: T.J. Hockenson, Josh Oliver
J.J. McCarthy was taken No. 10 overall in the 2024 draft but was unable to play last season due to a torn meniscus. The Vikings are now ready for him to take the reins for his de facto rookie season after letting Sam Darnold head for richer pastures in Seattle. They added Sam Howell to the quarterback room in case McCarthy comes along slowly but the 22-year-old does have the 2024 College Football Playoff Championship under his belt. Reports out of the offseason have McCarthy’s knee feeling strong as he was cleared for on-field work heading into offseason workouts. Mobility concerns off the meniscus injury may impact his scrambling ability, though he was not a major runner of the ball in college. With 171 rushing yards his final college season, there is not much dual-threat upside. McCarthy may start out with more short-game work rather than downfield passing; he will have a slew of offensive playmakers to boost him into the high-end fantasy QB3 range for 2025.
Vikings WR1 Justin Jefferson is a locked-in top five fantasy wide receiver for this season. He started his career off with five straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards and top ten fantasy WR finishes by points per game. Even as his quarterback switched from Kirk Cousins to Darnold, Jefferson continued to elevated the Vikings offense to the tune of 103 receptions for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns. His quarterback situation does not matter, Jefferson is one of the best pass-catchers in the league and a set-it, forget-it fantasy WR1.
Behind Jefferson is Jordan Addison entering his third season. He put up consistent production each of his first two seasons but much of his fantasy production has been boom-or-bust, with eight games over 13.0 PPR points and ten games below 10.0 PPR points last season. As the Vikings’ second option, Addison operates both in the slot and on the outside, posting a 73.2 PFF grade for 2024 – good for No. 39 out of 98 qualifying wide receivers. Legal troubles could endanger Addison’s 2025 season as he faces trial in July for a 2024 DUI arrest. If he is set to play this season, Addison is a high-end WR3. If suspended, the rest of the Vikings wide receivers are set to benefit from increased opportunities.
The role of No. 3 wide receiver is roughly held by Jalen Nailor. The 26-year-old year old caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns last season, spending half of his time in the slot. Nailor is the primary beneficiary of an Addison suspension but is a late-round dart throw otherwise.
Behind Nailor, the Vikings drafted Tai Felton with the No. 102 overall pick in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He saw large volume as a college senior and has the prototypical size for an outside receiver. Rondale Moore was also added to the receiver group after a torn ACL kept him out for all of 2024. Moore will need time to come back from the injury and is unlikely to have a path to fantasy relevancy. Meanwhile, Felton is a late-round dart throw and would have a chance to earn more targets if Addison misses time.
T.J. Hockenson is arguably the No. 2 pass-catcher on the Vikings when healthy. He suffered a torn ACL in 2023 and appeared in 10 games last season as a result. Prior to missing the last two games of the 2023 season, Hockenson was headed for a career-high in targets and already had career-highs in yards and receptions in O’Connell’s scheme. His 78.8 PFF grade was No. 3 among tight ends that year; he finished as a top eight fantasy tight end each season from 2020-2023. Consider him a fantasy TE1 this season as much of the “easy lay-up” offense to help McCarthy will likely involve Hockenson.
The No. 2 tight end is Josh Oliver, who just signed a three-year extension this offseason. Oliver won’t have enough pass-catching to be fantasy relevant but is an excellent blocker for the Vikings’ offense.
Running Game
RB: Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Ty Chandler
OL (L-R): Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Brian O’Neill
In his first season with the team, Aaron Jones was the Vikings’ workhorse back last year. He totaled 1,546 yards on 306 touches (the most of his career) and was a fantasy RB2. Though the team had a -0.12 Rush EPA per play - No. 22 in the league - Jones was still a vital, oft-used part of the offense in both the running and passing game. The Vikings signed him to a two-year, $20 million contract extension, indicating commitment to the lead back role. Jones is primed for a low-end RB2 season.
However, Jones is now 30 years old and is primed to cede touches to the newly acquired Jordan Mason. Due to an injured Christian McCaffrey, Mason saw 153 carries for 789 yards and 11 receptions for 91 yards and three total touchdowns in 12 games for the 49ers last season. O’Connell mentioned Mason as a useful piece in short-yardage and goal-line scenarios. He was not much of a pass-catcher in San Francisco but will be a complementary downhill runner to Jones in the backfield. Mason is the immediate handcuff to Jones with standalone fantasy value as a low-end RB3.
Lastly, Ty Chandler will mix into the backfield with special teams snaps as well. If Jones misses time, Mason will take the bulk of the backfield share while Chandler may get more of the pass-catching opportunity. He is a deep handcuff worth rostering if Jones is out.
The Vikings offensive line had a subpar 2024 season as it surrendered 24 total sacks and 192 pressures. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw missed the final 10 games of the season after suffering a knee injury in Week 8. He will return for 2025 to make for a solid tackle duo with Brian O’Neill. The interior offensive line will need work as Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and rookie first-rounder Donovan Jackson are newly projected starters. The line certainly has the pedigree to work well but may take time to gel as new starters protect a new quarterback.
2025 Minnesota Vikings Win Total
DraftKings O/U: 9.5
Pick: Under (-125)
DraftKings has set the Vikings’ over/under at 9.5 wins. After a 14-win season, that seems low, though quarterback turnover introduces uncertainty into the offense. The team’s top playmakers in Jefferson, Hockenson, and Jones are locks for fantasy production when healthy as the team builds an offense around McCarthy. The Vikings have a second-place schedule this season while facing the AFC North and NFC East divisions. There is a lot of volatility in predicting Minnesota’s record and understandable hesitance in taking the under. However, a tough schedule and a young – essentially rookie – starting quarterback have me picking under 9.5 wins for the Vikings for 2025.
