You know that targeting the highest scoring games and particularly the teams with the highest implied totals makes sense in fantasy football. This analysis will highlight exactly which situations are the best to take advantage of and which you might want to avoid within those games. We’ll also highlight a couple games to use caution with as well as some less obvious targets. All betting lines are courtesy of Westgate Sportsbook.
The high scoring games:
Tampa Bay at Atlanta, Total 51.5
Falcons minus-4.5
The NFC South is the gift that keeps on giving for fantasy. The Bucs give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, most to wide receivers, and second-most to tight ends. Atlanta is the seventh-best QB and WR matchup, and the Bucs rank sixth in the league in points per game. Neither defense is especially friendly to the run, and Tampa actually rates as the third-worst RB matchup. That’s ok, because neither of these offenses offers an irresistible running back option.
Starting with the Falcons, who are perhaps surprisingly favored by more than the standard home field advantage would suggest, Matt Ryan is an obvious QB choice for all lineups this week. He’s seemingly back to 100 percent, and back to throwing 300-plus yards per game. Though the big multi-touchdown games have been lacking, he should get back on track in this game.
I’m having a hard time with Julio Jones’ salary this week, given that there are a lot of wide receivers in great spots this week for a lot less, including two Bucs who rank in the Top 3 all season. Jones’ lack of scoring is a bummer, but it neither means that he’s due nor that he’ll never score again. It’s just that he really needs his standard 8/90 receiving line with two scores to pay off that salary and I can’t rely on it happening. For tournaments, I think Jones is a great target. I was high on Calvin Ridley last week for his bargain price and opportunity, but again, coming off the super great game he had, his salary has risen and his ownership will be silly this week. If he fits into the salary puzzle for you, I have no problem with him if you’re expecting more like 15-18 fantasy points. Austin Hooper is also still expensive, but if he makes it through the week looking like there won’t be any limitations on his ability Sunday, he’s probably my favorite guy to pair with Ryan.
Of course, it makes a ton of sense to game stack here, so look for more on this later in the week. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both coming off relatively disappointing stretches, Evans for two weeks and Godwin for four. This matchup presents a chance for one of them, at least, to get back to winning us money. I’m favoring Godwin here, as the cheaper of the two and the one likely to receive the softer of Atlanta’s soft secondary coverage. Jameis Winston is never high on my trust-o-meter, and coming off a four-interception game in which he sprained his ankle would normally make me run the other direction. However, even in Winston’s 4-5 pick games, he’s putting up 20-plus fantasy points. The volume is just so high and the skill of his two star receivers bails him out week in and week out. The risk is factored into his salary, and at this point, I’m going for it. Just say no to Tampa Bay running backs and tight ends. [[ad:athena]]
Seattle at Philadelphia, Total 48
Eagles minus-1.5
This game was flexed from Sunday night, and thank goodness, because there is a shortage of high scoring games in this main slate. Seven of the 10 highest scoring teams are on bye or in island games for Week 12. The sample size is low, but when a salary is as high as Russell Wilson’s, I have to notice things like home/road splits. Wilson is averaging nine fewer fantasy points per game on the road this season, and it’s only partially related to matchup, since one away game was San Francisco but the others were Arizona, Atlanta and Cleveland. So Vegas has noticed as well, which is why the 5-5 Eagles are favored over the 8-2 Seahawks.
Anyway, I will not be adamantly fading Wilson this week, but I’m not blindly spending up on him either. His floor of about 15 fantasy points is great, but when I pay top dollar at QB, I’m looking at someone who can absolutely shatter their average. With Tyler Lockett probably not at 100 percent after his scary leg swelling/contusion thing, this offense becomes somewhat more shaky on the road. Keep on the lookout for updates on Lockett.
Possibilities to slot in here and there include D.K. Metcalf and Jacob Hollister, touchdown machine 2.0. The Eagles are a great passing/receiving matchup and the total here is high enough to consider using some Seahawks at the right prices. Chris Carson has been rock solid, even in the tough matchups. His salary is a nice fit for both cash games and GPPs this week.
The Eagles and Carson Wentz in particular have been a big disappointment. They still have a shot at winning the division as they’re only one game back of the Cowboys. The schedule has been absolutely horrific, so if there was a time for a big turnaround, this could be it. At home vs. a Seattle team that ranks in the Top 10 to opposing QBs and TEs, I feel a mini-Wentz/Zach Ertz stack in my future. Ertz’ salary hasn’t really changed much despite him having back-to-back nearly identical games with nine catches on 11 targets and about 96 receiving yards. He’s still priced below Hooper (and a couple others on FanDuel). If the faithful want to go back to Miles Sanders after a disappointing outing vs. New England, go for it. I’ve been reluctant to recommend this situation all season, but if Jordan Howard is out again, Sanders’ salary is at a place where he can expect to exceed value in a much better game script situation.
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The low scoring games:
Denver at Buffalo, Total 37
Bills minus-4
A defensive face off for the ages. Buffalo allows the third-fewest points to their opponents while Denver is eighth in that category. Both teams have proven a nightmare for visiting QBs, which sets up a low scoring affair. As much as I normally love Josh Allen, these aren’t the Dolphins. Devin Singletary and Phillip Lindsay are possibilities, at the same price on FanDuel and very close on DraftKings. Given what they’ve each done this season and the continued involvement of Frank Gore for Buffalo, I’m leaning strongly to Lindsay. Running backs have had more success against Buffalo than Denver, too. Although Buffalo is the better defensive matchup on paper, not to mention Denver being the lower-scoring offense, they haven’t been great for fantasy (11 fantasy point max this season). Denver does take a lot of sacks (fifth highest sack percentage) and the Bills rank ninth in sacks per game, but this isn’t automatically the best defense for DFS just because of the low total. I think there are some more creative, cheaper options to consider.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Total 39
Steelers minus-6.5
We’ll learn just how dysfunctional the Steelers have become when they travel to Ohio to play the Bengals in what Vegas has as the second-lowest scoring game of the week. They are favored, but on what grounds? Although Mason Rudolph was the one who actually got smacked in the head with a helmet, both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson are in the concussion protocol. James Conner is questionable after aggravating his shoulder injury in Thursday night’s spectacle. Steelers I’d play include Jaylen Samuels if Conner is out, James Washington if the two aforementioned receivers are out, and Vance McDonald. The Bengals are a great matchup all around, but I just can’t see Rudolph exceeding 18 fantasy points at this point. Finally, the Steelers D/ST, despite being the most expensive unit on the slate, is hard to argue against. They have 26 takeaways and rank fourth in sacks per game. Cincinnati is a dream, ranking third in turnovers and fifth in sacks per game taken.
Could this be the week A.J. Green returns? Perhaps so, but the only Bengal I’m even considering is Joe Mixon. The one thing Ryan Finley seems to have unlocked is Mixon’s potential. Of course, a couple of softer matchups have helped, and Pittsburgh isn’t exactly that, ranking second in the league in takeaways and coming on strong as a fantasy defense. Still, they’re just middle of the league in terms of rushing yards and points allowed. I think Mixon is playable, even at a raised salary. If you are hell-bent on using the Steelers Defense this week, of course, go another way at RB.
High team totals you might miss:
Carolina at New Orleans, Total 46.5
Saints minus-9.5
The Saints bounce-back was carried out as expected by Drew Brees throwing three touchdowns against the Bucs in Week 11. Can they keep it going in a tougher matchup but at home vs. the Panthers? Vegas says yes. Michael Thomas is a no-brainer here, the top player I’m paying up for as long as he’s healthy and the Saints are in this kind of favorable game situation. Brees is trickier, because there are a few QB options I like for less. If you go full New Orleans stack, of course he’s included, along with Jared Cook, coming off another double-digit fantasy point game, his fourth in a row. He’s scored in three of those four.
So much for Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray canceling each other out; Kamara’s 10 targets and enhanced efficiency on the ground in Week 11 reminded us why he was a Top 3 draft target in season long fantasy. Carolina has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, so even though Kamara’s price shot back up after his big day (10 catches, 122 total yards), he’s worth a look. If the Saints’ D/ST was cheaper, I’d consider them a sneaky start here given the Panthers’ team total, sack rate, and turnover rate, but they’re not.
Speaking of Panthers, they’re going through a rough stretch. Though Kyle Allen has thrown for over 300 yards in the past two games, he’s got just one touchdown and six turnovers in that span. And he played the Falcons last week. Gross. Nothing stops Christian McCaffrey however, except maybe his $10,500 salary (both sites). With most of the targets and all of the rushes, he comprises something like 75 percent of the Carolina offense. Now even on a team without a ton of offense, that’s valuable. Rostering McCaffrey forces some uncomfortable roster decisions, but until there’s a real let-down, I’m trying to make it work. Check the bargain column for some ideas later this week.
Miami at Cleveland, Total 44.5
Browns minus-10.5
The Browns finally get their chance. From the D/ST, now down a couple guys, to Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., this is no limit Browns DFS. I’m not saying they won’t find a way to blow it, but you’ve got to have some exposure to this team. Unfortunately, the safest play in the best matchup, Chubb, is very pricey, but OBJ is affordable, as is Landry and Mayfield isn’t too far out of bargain range. I think it’s very possible for both to have their best game of the season come Sunday, and I don’t think I’ll be alone in that, so prepare for high ownership of those three players.
