The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 4

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“The Fantasy Usage Model” is simply how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you scroll down, you’ll see raw air yards, team share data, and RB touches while leading/trailing. This is basically all of the data I use to make my sit/start decisions. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks). [[ad:athena]]

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-3. I removed injuries. “xFPs” are expected fantasy points (aka “Fantasy Usage”).

Player	Fantasy Usage	Actual PPR	Context
Davante Adams	32.1 (WR1)	41.6 (WR1)	Removed Weeks 2-3 (hamstring).
Calvin Ridley	22.9 (WR2)	26.8 (WR2)	560 air yards. 2nd has 388.
Keenan Allen	20.9 (WR3)	18.8 (WR10)	16.2 & 33.1 xFPs with Herbert.
DeAndre Hopkins	19.8 (WR4)	24.5 (WR5)	1 of 2 WRs with 30+% target share.
Jamison Crowder	19.7 (WR5)	24.5 (WR6)	Missed Weeks 2-3. Target hog.
Julio Jones	19.3 (WR6)	24.7 (WR3)	Removed Weeks 2-3 (hamstring).
Russell Gage	18.4 (WR7)	18.5 (WR12)	Removed Week 3 (concussion).
Amari Cooper	17.7 (WR8)	17.2 (WR18)	Tied for 4th in targets P/G (11.7).
Tyler Lockett	17.2 (WR9)	24.6 (WR4)	Efficiency outlier + 28% target share.
Allen Robinson	17.2 (WR10)	15.6 (WR27)	WR1 volume + upgrade with Foles.
Diontae Johnson	17.0 (WR11)	17.5 (WR15)	Removed Week 3 (concussion).
Stefon Diggs	16.6 (WR12)	20.3 (WR7)	Surprising pass-heavy Bills’ top WR.
A.J. Green	15.8 (WR13)	8.2 (WR71)	128 air yards P/G is 4th. Is he done?
Julian Edelman	15.3 (WR14)	14.4 (WR29)	Air yards share leader (52%)
D.J. Moore	15.0 (WR15)	12.6 (WR38)	2nd in AYDs share (48%). Buy low.
Darius Slayton	14.6 (WR16)	14.3 (WR30)	Spiked-week WR. 34% AYDs share.
Parris Campbell	14.5 (WR17)	14.0 (WR32)	Removed Weeks 2-3 (knee).
John Brown	14.5 (WR18)	18.6 (WR11)	Removed Week 3 (foot).
Terry McLaurin	14.1 (WR19)	16.4 (WR23)	WR2 usage/production in faster OFF.
Tyreek Hill	14.0 (WR20)	19.5 (WR9)	Efficiency outlier. Spiked-week WR1.
Tyler Boyd	13.9 (WR21)	16.7 (WR22)	18% target share in OFF 3rd in PaAt.
N’Keal Harry	13.8 (WR22)	9.9 (WR54)	Negative game script only. Slow.
Kenny Golladay	13.5 (WR23)	17.7 (WR14)	79% routes in 2020 rebut (hamstring).
A.J. Brown	13.3 (WR24)	8.9 (WR64)	Removed Weeks 2-3 (knee).
Will Fuller	13.3 (WR25)	17.3 (WR17)	Removed Week 2 (hamstring).
Jerry Jeudy	13.2 (WR26)	10.1 (WR51)	12.6 & 15.5 xFPs without Sutton.
Cole Beasley	13.1 (WR27)	12.6 (WR40)	PPR WR3 if Brown misses.
Sammy Watkins	12.8 (WR28)	12.3 (WR42)	This includes Week 2’s short game.
Robby Anderson	12.8 (WR29)	17.9 (WR13)	Target share: RA 23%, CS 13%.
Chris Godwin	12.7 (WR30)	15.7 (WR26)	Concussion. Now a hamstring.
Odell Beckham	12.5 (WR31)	10.8 (WR46)	40% air yards share is 6th. Run OFF.
CeeDee Lamb	12.5 (WR32)	13.3 (WR36)	63% Week 3 routes. A tad injured.
Robert Woods	12.0 (WR33)	16.9 (WR21)	LA is last in neutral pass rate. Sad!
Mike Evans	11.4 (WR34)	14.9 (WR28)	Slow, run-heavy OFF so far.
Brandon Aiyuk	11.3 (WR35)	12.6 (WR39)	90% routes & 18.6 xFPs in Week 3.
Adam Thielen	11.3 (WR36)	15.8 (WR25)	46% air yards share is 3rd. WR2+.
Cooper Kupp	11.3 (WR37)	16.2 (WR24)	LA is last in neutral pass rate. Sad!
Mike Williams	11.3 (WR38)	7.2 (WR83)	Removed Week 3 (hamstring).
DK Metcalf	11.1 (WR39)	19.9 (WR8)	Efficiency outlier. Upside WR2.
Adam Humphries	11.1 (WR40)	11.5 (WR45)	9.5 & 12.3 xFPs without AJB.
Golden Tate	10.7 (WR41)	9.2 (WR62)	Slot WR in a bad offense. PPR WR5.
Allen Lazard	10.6 (WR42)	17.4 (WR16)	xFPs: With Adams (8.6), w/o (14.3).
JuJu Smith-Schuster	10.5 (WR43)	17.0 (WR20)	17% target & 13% AY shares. Uh oh.
Braxton Berrios	10.3 (WR44)	17.2 (WR19)	13.4 & 7.3 xFPs without Crowder.
DeVante Parker	10.3 (WR45)	12.3 (WR41)	I’m confident Parker climbs in usage.
Greg Ward	10.2 (WR46)	10.1 (WR52)	19.2 Week 3 xFPs. No DG/JR/AJ?
KJ Hamler	10.2 (WR47)	7.3 (WR82)	94% Week 3 routes, mostly outside.
Corey Davis	10.1 (WR48)	13.9 (WR34)	18% target share despite no AJB.
DeSean Jackson	10.0 (WR49)	7.4 (WR79)	34yo hammy can’t support 4.3 speed.
Brandin Cooks	9.9 (WR50)	7.9 (WR73)	7.7 & 7.6 xFPs with healthy Fuller.
Courtland Sutton	9.9 (WR51)	9.6 (WR56)	Out for season (ACL).
Danny Amendola	9.9 (WR52)	6.7 (WR87)	Low aDOT & 3rd/4th in target tree.
Sterling Shepard	9.9 (WR53)	10.7 (WR48)	Removed Weeks 2-3. IR.
Michael Gallup	9.9 (WR54)	13.9 (WR34)	Efficiency outlier. Boom-bust WR3.
Marvin Jones	9.9 (WR55)	10.0 (WR53)	6.7 aDOT will increase. Flex play.
Marquise Brown	9.8 (WR56)	9.2 (WR60)	Needs outlier efficiency to be WR3/4.
Preston Williams	9.7 (WR57)	6.1 (WR90)	Hurt by CB matchups + game script.
Tee Higgins	9.7 (WR58)	9.2 (WR61)	83% routes & 18.9 xFPs in Week 3.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.7 (WR59)	10.2 (WR50)	This is without DA playing 1.5 games.
Curtis Samuel	9.4 (WR60)	8.1 (WR72)	Runs don’t make up for 13% targets.
Emmanuel Sanders	9.4 (WR61)	9.6 (WR55)	4.9 & 9.1 xFPs without Thomas.
Chris Conley	9.4 (WR62)	5.6 (WR93)	Tilted faces on TNF because drops.
Keelan Cole	9.4 (WR63)	13.9 (WR33)	34 air yards P/G keep him off radar.
Anthony Miller	9.2 (WR64)	13.1 (WR37)	12% target share but 17.8 aDOT.
Michael Thomas	9.1 (WR65)	4.7 (WR106)	Removed Weeks 2-3. Returning?
Kendrick Bourne	9.0 (WR66)	8.8 (WR66)	Kittle + Deebo returning soon.
T.Y. Hilton	8.9 (WR67)	7.8 (WR75)	18% target share. IND avg. 32 PaAtt.
Laviska Shenault	8.8 (WR68)	10.8 (WR47)	13% target share should tick up.
Dontrelle Inman	8.7 (WR69)	8.9 (WR65)	WAS No. 2 WR, which is something!
Hunter Renfrow	8.5 (WR70)	10.4 (WR49)	xFPs: With Ruggs 4.5, without 16.2.
Justin Jefferson	8.3 (WR71)	14.2 (WR31)	91% routes & 13.5 xFPs in Week 3.
James Washington	8.2 (WR72)	8.4 (WR69)	Week 3 routes: CC (35), JW (29).
Chris Hogan	8.2 (WR73)	4.8 (WR104)	11.6 & 4.7 xFPs without Crowder.
Tre’Quan Smith	8.1 (WR74)	7.7 (WR78)	12.8 & 10.2 xFPs without Thomas.
Quintez Cephus	8.1 (WR75)	5.2 (WR99)	Thankfully Golladay is back.
Lawrence Cager	7.9 (WR76)	5.5 (WR94)
Tim Patrick	7.8 (WR77)	8.5 (WR68)
Randall Cobb	7.7 (WR78)	11.6 (WR44)	Week 3: 7.9 xFPs, 19.5 FPs. Ignore.
Scotty Miller	7.6 (WR79)	9.1 (WR63)
Isaiah Ford	7.6 (WR80)	7.1 (WR84)
Michael Pittman	7.4 (WR81)	5.4 (WR98)	Injured. Pascal becomes No. 2 WR.
Zach Pascal	7.3 (WR82)	6.7 (WR86)	Campbell + Pittman are injured.
Larry Fitzgerald	7.2 (WR83)	6.8 (WR85)	An old slot WR? In this economy?
Deontay Burnett	7.1 (WR84)	4.9 (WR102)
Christian Kirk	7.1 (WR85)	4.5 (WR109)	7.7 & 6.5 xFPs in two healthy games.
Breshad Perriman	6.8 (WR86)	4.7 (WR106)	Removed Weeks 2-3.
Jarvis Landry	6.7 (WR87)	8.8 (WR67)	16% AY share. CLE 31st in PaAtts.
Jalen Reagor	6.6 (WR88)	7.3 (WR81)	Possibly out months, not weeks.
Henry Ruggs	6.6 (WR89)	5.5 (WR94)	Low usage in 6 QTs since leg injury.
Demarcus Robinson	6.5 (WR90)	3.6 (WR120)	Shouldn’t play a single snap over MH.
Miles Boykin	6.2 (WR91)	5.4 (WR96)	Way too raw to make up for 0 volume.
Damiere Byrd	6.0 (WR92)	6.3 (WR89)
Darnell Mooney	6.0 (WR93)	7.8 (WR76)	Snaps are there. Targets aren’t.
D.J. Chark	6.0 (WR94)	12.0 (WR43)	Hopefully low usage is injury related.
Trent Taylor	5.8 (WR95)	2.9 (WR127)
John Ross	5.4 (WR96)	1.9 (WR136)	Week 3 healthy scratch after drops.
Mike Thomas	5.2 (WR97)	6.6 (WR88)	Known as “Bad Mike Thomas”
Willie Snead	5.1 (WR98)	7.9 (WR74)
Gabriel Davis	5.1 (WR99)	7.8 (WR76)	Deep sleeper if Brown misses time.
Van Jefferson	5.0 (WR100)	4.2 (WR115)	Well behind Reynolds still.
Chase Claypool	4.9 (WR101)	9.3 (WR58)	Week 3 routes: CC (35), JW (29).
Mecole Hardman	4.7 (WR102)	8.3 (WR70)	Needs more snaps to be flex option.
Isaiah Wright	4.7 (WR103)	3.5 (WR123)
Kenny Stills	4.7 (WR104)	3.4 (WR124)
Steven Sims	4.6 (WR105)	5.4 (WR96)
David Moore	4.6 (WR106)	7.3 (WR80)
Deonte Harris	4.5 (WR107)	4.2 (WR115)
Auden Tate	4.5 (WR108)	2.5 (WR130)	Active over John Ross in Week 3.
Josh Reynolds	4.4 (WR109)	6.0 (WR91)
Isaiah McKenzie	4.2 (WR110)	4.5 (WR110)
Andy Isabella	4.2 (WR111)	9.6 (WR56)	4th in Wk 3 WR routes in AZ. Why?
Collin Johnson	4.2 (WR112)	1.2 (WR146)
John Hightower	4.1 (WR113)	1.6 (WR140)
Cordarrelle Patterson	4.0 (WR114)	3.6 (WR122)
Cedrick Wilson	4.0 (WR115)	9.2 (WR59)	Spiked for 11.9 xFPs while chasing.

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-3. I removed injuries. “xFPs” are expected fantasy points (aka “Fantasy Usage”).

Player	Fantasy Usage	Actual PPR	Context
Darren Waller	15.8 (TE1)	13.9 (TE6)	28% target share + elite skills.
Logan Thomas	15.0 (TE2)	9.1 (TE20)	-5.8 PPR Over Expected is lowest.
Travis Kelce	14.8 (TE3)	18.6 (TE1)	Producing like a 1st round asset.
Dallas Goedert	14.3 (TE4)	15.6 (TE3)	Removed Week 3 (ankle). Out weeks.
Zach Ertz	14.2 (TE5)	11.3 (TE15)	17.4 xFPs in Week 3 w/o Goedert.
Mike Gesicki	13.0 (TE6)	13.8 (TE7)	Athletic big slot with 30% AY share.
Jimmy Graham	13.0 (TE7)	12.8 (TE9)	xFPs: 15.1 to 1.5 to 22.4. Foles helps.
Jonnu Smith	12.7 (TE8)	16.4 (TE2)	Major athlete. 19% target share.
Hunter Henry	12.4 (TE9)	12.2 (TE10)	20% target share. LAC wants to run.
Noah Fant	12.2 (TE10)	14.8 (TE4)	103 routes are top-10. Stud in bad O.
Mark Andrews	12.1 (TE11)	10.6 (TE17)	Drops are mostly random. Strong TE1.
Dalton Schultz	11.5 (TE12)	11.6 (TE12)	16.6 & 9.9 xFPs w/o Jarwin. Slow.
Evan Engram	11.5 (TE13)	6.9 (TE27)	2nd in TE routes (116). Bad offense.
Jordan Reed	10.4 (TE14)	10.5 (TE18)	Looked really good before injury.
C.J. Uzomah	10.3 (TE15)	11.4 (TE14)	Out for season (Achilles).
T.J. Hockenson	9.3 (TE16)	12.0 (TE11)	TE2 usage despite Golladay missing.
Hayden Hurst	9.2 (TE17)	10.7 (TE16)	5th among TEs in routes run (104).
Jared Cook	8.7 (TE18)	8.8 (TE22)	Left Week 3 (groin). 5.0 targets P/G.
Chris Herndon	8.3 (TE19)	5.4 (TE30)	18% target share. Pathetic offense.
Eric Ebron	8.2 (TE20)	8.8 (TE23)	13% target share. TE2. Needs TDs.
David Njoku	7.5 (TE21)	14.0 (TE5)	On injured reserve (knee).
O.J. Howard	7.1 (TE22)	7.9 (TE24)	More usage, fewer routes than Gronk.
Mo Alie-Cox	7.1 (TE23)	11.4 (TE13)	30% Week 3 routes with Doyle back.
Tyler Higbee	6.9 (TE24)	13.8 (TE8)	TDs have masked TE2 usage.
Drew Sample	6.8 (TE25)	4.8 (TE35)	63% routes led to 1.3 xFPs Week 3.
Tyler Eifert	6.5 (TE26)	5.8 (TE29)	9% target share in iffy offense.
Rob Gronkowski	6.4 (TE27)	4.6 (TE38)	Ran a route on 55% of dropbacks.
Greg Olsen	6.3 (TE28)	7.8 (TE25)	26 air yards P/G. TD dependent TE3.
Jordan Akins	6.0 (TE29)	9.7 (TE19)	Routes run: Akins (99), Fells (30).
Dawson Knox	5.9 (TE30)	4.7 (TE37)	Missed Week 3 (concussion).
Austin Hooper	5.6 (TE31)	4.4 (TE40)	8.0 xFPs in Week 2 are his highest.
Robert Tonyan	5.3 (TE32)	8.8 (TE21)	60% routes as the clear GB TE1.
Darren Fells	4.9 (TE33)	4.7 (TE36)	Definition of TD dependent. 30 routes.
Ross Dwelley	4.8 (TE34)	5.2 (TE31)
Tyler Kroft	4.7 (TE35)	6.1 (TE28)
James O’Shaughnessy	4.6 (TE36)	5.0 (TE33)
Kaden Smith	4.5 (TE37)	2.6 (TE52)
Dan Arnold	4.3 (TE38)	3.6 (TE46)	Air raid not built for TEs.
Jack Doyle	4.0 (TE39)	4.0 (TE42)	No targets despite 59% Wk 3 routes.
Harrison Bryant	4.0 (TE40)	3.7 (TE44)

Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average fantasy usage and PPR data from Weeks 1-3. I removed injuries and some weeks to reflect current usage but noted all changes in context. “xFPs” are expected fantasy points (aka “Fantasy Usage”).

Player	Fantasy Usage	Actual PPR	Context
Ezekiel Elliott	27.7 (RB1)	23.2 (RB4)	Leader in inside-the-10 carries (12).
Alvin Kamara	26.3 (RB2)	35.6 (RB1)	30% target share is 1st among RBs.
Aaron Jones	26.2 (RB3)	26.6 (RB3)	23.9+ expected FPs in all 3 games.
Derrick Henry	24.1 (RB4)	17.2 (RB14)	-6.9 PPR Over Expected P/G is last.
Miles Sanders	23.7 (RB5)	18.4 (RB12)	22.7 & 24.8 expected FPs in 2 gms.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22.9 (RB6)	17.1 (RB15)	Receptions: 0 to 6 to 5. Upside RB1.
Christian McCaffrey	22.8 (RB7)	26.7 (RB2)	Missed Week 3. Davis had his role.
Josh Jacobs	21.6 (RB8)	20.2 (RB8)	Elite runner, still only 44% routes.
Mike Davis	21.0 (RB9)	19.3 (RB10)	Only includes last 2 weeks. CMC role.
Myles Gaskin	17.3 (RB10)	13.1 (RB24)	xFPs: 9.7 to 15.3 to 26.8. Bad OFF.
Jonathan Taylor	17.2 (RB11)	15.7 (RB18)	Didn’t play 4th QT. Jets were too bad.
James Conner	16.9 (RB12)	16.2 (RB17)	Snaps includes injury: JC 118, BS 54.
Austin Ekeler	16.7 (RB13)	19.9 (RB9)	Better in negative game script.
Raheem Mostert	16.3 (RB14)	21.9 (RB5)	Removed Weeks 2-3 (knee).
Devin Singletary	16.0 (RB15)	12.0 (RB27)	xFPs: With Moss (14.1), w/o (19.7).
Todd Gurley	16.0 (RB16)	11.7 (RB28)	Only 3 avoided tackles on 52 opps.
Kareem Hunt	15.5 (RB17)	16.9 (RB16)	Boom-bust RB2/3. Needs game flow.
Melvin Gordon	15.1 (RB18)	13.9 (RB21)	Workhorse role but stuck in bad O.
Chris Carson	15.0 (RB19)	18.3 (RB13)	On RB1/2 border if healthy (knee).
Dalvin Cook	14.4 (RB20)	20.3 (RB7)	Workhorse in offense last in plays.
Rex Burkhead	14.4 (RB21)	15.6 (RB19)	13.6 & 26.3 xFPs without White.
Joe Mixon	14.3 (RB22)	9.4 (RB37)	Needs positive game script.
Kenyan Drake	14.2 (RB23)	11.6 (RB29)	49% routes in 2020 holds him back.
James Robinson	13.8 (RB24)	20.6 (RB6)	14.3 carries P/G + 10% target share.
Zack Moss	13.8 (RB25)	7.7 (RB46)	Allen will get in the way of short TDs.
Ronald Jones	13.6 (RB26)	10.1 (RB35)	More routes/carries than LF in Wk 3.
Nick Chubb	13.3 (RB27)	19.3 (RB10)	Touch share: Lead 37%, trailing 23%.
Nyheim Hines	13.0 (RB28)	12.9 (RB25)	xFPs: 23.1 to 1.4 to 14.4. Labile RB3.
Joshua Kelley	12.7 (RB29)	10.8 (RB34)	Needs positive game script.
Darrell Henderson	12.7 (RB30)	13.2 (RB22)	Pure runner. LA 1st in neutral run %.
David Montgomery	12.7 (RB31)	12.5 (RB26)	Cohen leaves behind 18 routes P/G.
David Johnson	11.8 (RB32)	13.2 (RB23)	High snaps, but low-value touches.
Jerick McKinnon	11.7 (RB33)	14.6 (RB20)	xFPs: With Mostert (9.4), w/o (16.2).
Malcolm Brown	11.5 (RB34)	10.9 (RB33)	More routes than Hendo Week 3.
Adrian Peterson	10.7 (RB35)	9.3 (RB38)	Snaps: AP 78, Swift 60, Kerryon 59
Antonio Gibson	10.3 (RB36)	11.2 (RB31)	Wk 3 routes: McKissic 25, Gibson 14.
Leonard Fournette	10.1 (RB37)	11.6 (RB30)	Wk 3 snaps: RoJo (35), Lenny (25).
Giovani Bernard	9.6 (RB38)	7.6 (RB47)	Gio is ruining the potential Mixon fun.
Cam Akers	9.3 (RB39)	5.3 (RB59)	Hendo rusher, Brown blocker. Akers?
Latavius Murray	8.9 (RB40)	5.9 (RB53)	Inside-10 carries: Kamara 7, LM 4.
Chase Edmonds	8.9 (RB41)	7.7 (RB44)	49-of-76 2020 snaps are routes run.
Frank Gore	8.7 (RB42)	5.3 (RB59)	You aren’t winning if Gore is starting.
Mark Ingram	8.7 (RB43)	7.2 (RB48)	Oldest member of 3-back committee.
Jeff Wilson	8.5 (RB44)	11.1 (RB32)	16.1 xFPs in Wk 3. Short-term RB3.
Jamaal Williams	8.4 (RB45)	5.7 (RB57)
J.D. McKissic	8.3 (RB46)	4.8 (RB64)
Tevin Coleman	8.3 (RB47)	4.7 (RB65)	Injured.
D’Andre Swift	8.2 (RB48)	8.8 (RB40)	6 snaps in Week 3. Yikes.
Peyton Barber	8.1 (RB49)	5.2 (RB61)
Phillip Lindsay	8.0 (RB50)	4.5 (RB66)	Missed Weeks 2-3 (toe).
Tarik Cohen	7.9 (RB51)	5.8 (RB54)	Out for season (ACL).
Jordan Howard	7.7 (RB52)	6.4 (RB50)	8-of-16 carries from inside-the-10.
James White	7.5 (RB53)	8.2 (RB42)	Missed Weeks 2-3 (personal).
Chris Thompson	7.0 (RB54)	7.7 (RB45)	Not even playable in negative script.
Dion Lewis	7.0 (RB55)	5.9 (RB52)	Week 3 snaps: DL 20, WG 18, DF 15.
LeSean McCoy	6.8 (RB56)	4.2 (RB70)
Alexander Mattison	6.7 (RB57)	5.8 (RB55)	No standalone value. Stud stash tho.
Sony Michel	6.6 (RB58)	9.2 (RB39)	3rd in inside-the-10 carries for NE.
Benny Snell	6.3 (RB59)	4.5 (RB66)	No standalone value. OK insurance.
Marlon Mack	6.2 (RB60)	8.6 (RB41)	Out for season.
Kerryon Johnson	5.9 (RB61)	4.9 (RB63)	Snaps: AP 78, Swift 60, Kerryon 59
Boston Scott	5.8 (RB62)	5.1 (RB62)	No standalone value. OK insurance.
J.K. Dobbins	5.8 (RB63)	9.9 (RB36)	Passing-down role in 3-back committee.
Anthony McFarland	5.6 (RB64)	5.9 (RB51)
Brian Hill	5.6 (RB65)	7.8 (RB43)	Week 3 snaps: Gurley 35, Hill 23.

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Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 4

1. D.J. Moore: The WR38 per-game through three weeks, Moore seems like someone who is on path to bust at his third-round ADP, but I think he turns things around. He averaged 19.3 expected fantasy points in the first two games, and then fell victim to game script in Week 3 when the Panthers jumped to a first half lead vs. the Chargers. Moore’s 48% team air yards share is the second highest in the NFL, a sign that he’s in store for bigger days once Carolina gets back to passing at near league-high levels. That will be the case at home against the fast-paced Cardinals.

2. Jerry Jeudy: It won’t be pretty with a complete unknown at quarterback (Brett Rypien), but Jeudy has had the fantasy usage (WR26) through the first three weeks to fire him up as a flex play. He’s lining up in the slot more than rookie WR KJ Hamler and had 15.5 expected fantasy points last week despite his 10.5 PPR box score. With the Jets looking to get their head coach fired, Jeudy has some breakout appeal, assuming he’s going to limit those drops.

3. Julian Edelman: The offense has been run-heavy in two games but went into dropback mode while chasing points in Seattle. A similar game script is in store with the Chiefs scheduled for Sunday. Edelman has a 28% target share and an NFL-high 55% air yards share through three weeks, meaning he’s the dude in the receiving game when New England is forced into that script. Edelman has upside WR2/3 appeal here. His production will be more volatile week-to-week than it has been in recent seasons.

4. Mark Andrews: A few horrendous drops and off-target throws ruined Andrews on Monday night. That was as bad as it gets for a QB-TE duo that’s typically at the top of their games. We should expect Andrews to beat my model’s TE11 fantasy usage expectation because he and Lamar are usually really on fire. Andrews’ 29% target share keeps him inside the top-five in rest of season tight end rankings. Speaking of those, Subscribe to Rotoworld EDGE+ here to unlock them (updated Wednesday) for only $3.99 per month. Use promo code: WINKS10 for 10% off.

5. Logan Thomas: When I built The Fantasy Usage Model, I knew there would be players that we could confidently project to perform better or worse than my model’s expectations. We can chalk it up to player skill, quarterback play, or injuries. One of those players this season is Thomas, who is the TE2 in fantasy usage (15.0 expected fantasy points) but the TE20 in PPR production (9.1 expected fantasy points). Thomas won’t live up to top-5 production, but he can meet TE1/2 expectations still. I’d hold for two more weeks with the position looking bad due to injuries.

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Air Yards & Targets

Average usage from Weeks 1-3, sorted by air yards per game. Minimum 2 games and 25 air yards per game. Air yards and target shares are averages of each player’s share in games they received a target or carry, so a player who played but didn’t show up in box score needs to be filtered. I’ll work on this bug later. If you want week-by-week air yards and target totals, visit this Google Sheet.

Player	Week 3 AY	Avg. AY	AY Share	Avg. Targets	Target Share
Calvin Ridley	249	187	44%	11.7	28%
Julio Jones	NA	132	28%	8.0	16%
A.J. Green	45	128	33%	9.3	20%
DK Metcalf	170	126	44%	7.3	21%
Adam Thielen	89	126	46%	7.3	28%
Keenan Allen	157	120	40%	12.7	33%
Amari Cooper	117	117	32%	11.7	25%
D.J. Moore	79	117	49%	8.7	24%
DeSean Jackson	64	115	28%	6.7	15%
Allen Robinson	106	113	32%	10.3	27%
Tee Higgins	150	110	26%	7.5	15%
Michael Gallup	140	106	28%	6.3	13%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	98	104	33%	5.7	16%
Julian Edelman	72	102	55%	8.0	28%
Odell Beckham	96	100	42%	7.3	26%
Jerry Jeudy	82	95	28%	8.0	22%
John Brown	65	95	30%	6.0	15%
Stefon Diggs	42	94	28%	9.3	25%
Will Fuller	59	94	33%	7.5	25%
Davante Adams	NA	92	25%	10.0	24%
Tyler Lockett	129	92	32%	9.7	28%
Christian Kirk	NA	90	34%	5.0	13%
Darius Slayton	92	88	35%	7.3	20%
Terry McLaurin	82	87	34%	8.3	25%
Anthony Miller	103	83	22%	4.7	12%
DeAndre Hopkins	103	81	32%	12.3	32%
Marquise Brown	85	81	33%	6.0	23%
KJ Hamler	45	81	20%	6.0	15%
T.Y. Hilton	37	78	34%	5.7	17%
Quintez Cephus	NA	76	22%	6.5	17%
Jalen Reagor	NA	76	16%	4.0	9%
Zach Ertz	111	75	21%	8.0	18%
Mike Williams	15	75	24%	4.7	15%
Scotty Miller	135	74	25%	4.7	13%
Mike Gesicki	44	73	29%	6.3	18%
Brandin Cooks	48	73	26%	6.0	19%
Henry Ruggs	NA	73	38%	4.0	12%
Tyler Boyd	137	72	19%	8.7	19%
Chris Conley	160	72	21%	5.3	13%
Diontae Johnson	69	71	28%	8.3	23%
Allen Lazard	106	70	23%	5.7	17%
Mark Andrews	107	69	29%	5.7	21%
Robby Anderson	24	68	26%	8.0	23%
Kendrick Bourne	66	66	36%	5.3	17%
Hunter Henry	48	66	21%	7.7	21%
Logan Thomas	56	63	25%	8.0	24%
Tyreek Hill	90	62	30%	7.7	19%
Tim Patrick	35	62	17%	4.7	13%
DeVante Parker	65	61	27%	6.0	19%
Danny Amendola	37	61	24%	6.0	17%
Noah Fant	76	61	19%	7.0	19%
Justin Jefferson	128	60	24%	5.0	19%
Corey Davis	42	60	23%	6.3	19%
Kalif Raymond	97	60	17%	2.5	6%
Ted Ginn	97	57	11%	2.0	4%
Cole Beasley	74	57	18%	6.7	18%
Russell Gage	24	56	13%	8.0	18%
Olamide Zaccheaus	104	56	13%	3.5	9%
Dontrelle Inman	60	56	22%	5.3	16%
CeeDee Lamb	65	55	15%	7.0	15%
Travis Kelce	44	55	24%	9.0	22%
Chris Hogan	62	55	30%	5.0	16%
Preston Williams	7	55	21%	4.7	14%
Darren Waller	29	55	23%	9.3	27%
Adam Humphries	71	55	21%	6.7	20%
Darnell Mooney	105	54	13%	4.0	10%
Chris Godwin	41	54	18%	6.5	18%
Mike Evans	22	52	20%	6.0	17%
Damiere Byrd	10	52	17%	6.0	16%
O.J. Howard	52	50	18%	4.3	12%
Jared Cook	31	50	30%	5.0	15%
Andy Isabella	40	49	14%	3.0	8%
Eric Ebron	58	49	19%	4.7	13%
Hunter Renfrow	112	48	19%	4.7	14%
C.J. Uzomah	NA	47	13%	5.5	12%
James Washington	68	47	18%	5.0	14%
N’Keal Harry	39	46	25%	7.3	24%
Sammy Watkins	56	45	24%	6.7	18%
Michael Thomas	NA	45	29%	5.0	16%
Marvin Hall	NA	45	14%	2.0	6%
Braxton Berrios	43	45	28%	6.0	19%
Jonnu Smith	86	44	15%	6.7	20%
Chase Claypool	59	44	17%	3.0	8%
D.J. Chark	NA	44	18%	3.5	12%
John Ross	NA	42	13%	3.5	9%
Dallas Goedert	1	41	11%	6.0	14%
Golden Tate	42	41	15%	6.0	17%
DaeSean Hamilton	NA	41	13%	3.0	8%
Jarvis Landry	23	40	15%	4.3	15%
Steven Sims	NA	40	14%	4.5	14%
Bisi Johnson	NA	40	14%	3.5	14%
Randall Cobb	71	39	14%	4.3	14%
Cooper Kupp	72	39	21%	7.0	23%
Laviska Shenault	36	39	21%	4.7	14%
Marvin Jones	35	38	13%	5.7	16%
Jimmy Graham	63	38	9%	6.0	14%
Kenny Stills	61	38	13%	3.0	10%
Sterling Shepard	NA	38	15%	5.0	12%
Miles Sanders	50	38	11%	7.5	17%
Van Jefferson	10	37	22%	3.0	10%
Isaiah Ford	13	37	14%	5.3	15%
Tre’Quan Smith	40	37	21%	4.7	13%
Evan Engram	32	37	14%	6.7	18%
Zach Pascal	58	36	20%	3.7	13%
Hayden Hurst	11	36	9%	5.3	13%
Dalton Schultz	51	36	9%	6.7	14%
T.J. Hockenson	67	36	15%	5.3	16%
Tyler Eifert	18	36	10%	3.3	8%
Emmanuel Sanders	61	36	22%	4.3	13%
KhaDarel Hodge	37	35	15%	2.0	7%
Mo Alie-Cox	21	35	17%	3.7	13%
Keelan Cole	36	34	18%	5.7	17%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	43	34	13%	6.3	17%
Greg Ward	60	33	8%	6.3	14%
Tyler Higbee	21	32	17%	3.7	13%
Robert Woods	16	31	16%	6.3	21%
Jalen Guyton	60	31	10%	2.0	5%
Demarcus Robinson	20	31	17%	3.7	10%
Curtis Samuel	15	31	13%	4.7	14%
Miles Boykin	39	31	13%	3.7	14%
Josh Reynolds	67	31	16%	2.7	9%
C.J. Board	55	31	11%	2.3	6%
Robert Tonyan	12	30	11%	4.0	13%
Jordan Reed	56	29	15%	5.3	17%
Dan Arnold	28	29	9%	2.7	7%
Justin Watson	NA	29	12%	2.5	7%
Chris Herndon	24	29	14%	5.3	17%
John Hightower	25	29	7%	3.5	8%
Rob Gronkowski	41	27	9%	3.7	10%
Brandon Aiyuk	60	27	9%	5.5	17%
Greg Olsen	53	26	8%	3.7	10%
Aaron Jones	13	26	9%	6.0	18%
Noah Brown	29	26	6%	2.0	4%
Gabriel Davis	61	25	8%	2.3	6%
Dawson Knox	NA	25	7%	3.0	7%

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Carries & Game Script

Average usage from Weeks 1-3, sorted by carries per game. Minimum 2 games and 4.0 carries per game. “Touch % (Lead)” is a player’s share of team touches while his team is leading. I removed touch shares if a team has fewer than 25 plays in a game script or if a player missed a game.

Player	Carries	Inside 10	Touch % (Lead)	Touch % (Trail)	Games
Derrick Henry	27.3	3.3	42%	47%	3
Josh Jacobs	22.7	2.7	62%	39%	3
Christian McCaffrey	20.5	3.5	NA	NA	2
Ezekiel Elliott	19.3	4.0	NA	37%	3
Miles Sanders	19.0	2.0	NA	NA	2
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	18.3	2.7	42%	24%	3
Kenyan Drake	18.0	1.0	38%	25%	3
Joe Mixon	17.0	0.7	43%	22%	3
Nick Chubb	17.0	1.7	37%	25%	3
Aaron Jones	16.7	2.3	35%	34%	3
Todd Gurley	16.3	2.0	28%	21%	3
Dalvin Cook	16.0	1.7	43%	37%	3
Jonathan Taylor	16.0	2.0	26%	48%	3
Austin Ekeler	15.7	0.3	25%	33%	3
Adrian Peterson	14.3	0.7	29%	22%	3
David Montgomery	14.3	0.3	31%	25%	3
Joshua Kelley	14.3	2.0	34%	16%	3
James Robinson	14.3	0.7	NA	30%	3
Frank Gore	14.0	0.3	NA	27%	3
Melvin Gordon	14.0	0.7	NA	30%	3
James Conner	13.3	2.0	20%	32%	3
Kareem Hunt	13.0	1.7	34%	27%	3
Myles Gaskin	12.7	1.7	43%	24%	3
Chris Carson	12.3	1.3	29%	34%	3
Ronald Jones	12.3	1.7	21%	24%	3
Malcolm Brown	12.0	2.0	24%	18%	3
Cam Newton	11.7	3.0	23%	14%	3
Darrell Henderson	11.7	2.3	18%	28%	3
David Johnson	11.7	0.3	44%	26%	3
Raheem Mostert	11.5	0.5	NA	NA	2
Devin Singletary	10.7	1.0	24%	NA	3
Lamar Jackson	10.7	0.7	17%	18%	3
Antonio Gibson	10.3	0.7	NA	24%	3
Alvin Kamara	10.3	2.3	34%	38%	3
Latavius Murray	10.0	1.3	23%	17%	3
Benny Snell	9.7	0.3	23%	12%	3
Saquon Barkley	9.5	0.5	NA	NA	2
Jordan Wilkins	9.0	0.0	NA	NA	2
Tevin Coleman	9.0	0.5	NA	NA	2
Kyler Murray	8.7	0.7	12%	14%	3
Mark Ingram	8.7	0.7	18%	13%	3
Sony Michel	8.7	0.7	18%	0%	3
Cam Akers	8.5	1.0	NA	NA	2
Zack Moss	8.5	2.0	NA	NA	2
Leonard Fournette	8.0	0.7	25%	13%	3
Josh Allen	7.3	1.3	13%	NA	3
Jamaal Williams	7.0	1.0	12%	13%	3
Jeff Wilson	7.0	0.5	NA	NA	2
Mike Davis	7.0	1.0	NA	NA	2
Peyton Barber	7.0	2.3	NA	8%	3
Jerick McKinnon	6.7	1.0	16%	NA	3
Rex Burkhead	6.3	1.3	15%	10%	3
Gus Edwards	6.0	0.3	14%	10%	3
Kerryon Johnson	6.0	1.0	17%	3%	3
Alexander Mattison	5.7	0.7	16%	17%	3
Boston Scott	5.3	0.0	16%	10%	3
Carlos Hyde	5.3	0.3	10%	15%	3
Joe Burrow	5.3	0.7	5%	9%	3
Jordan Howard	5.3	2.7	7%	6%	3
J.D. McKissic	5.3	0.3	NA	15%	3
JJ Taylor	5.3	0.3	12%	10%	3
Brian Hill	5.0	0.0	14%	8%	3
Cordarrelle Patterson	5.0	0.3	12%	5%	3
Lamical Perine	5.0	0.0	NA	NA	2
Matt Breida	5.0	0.0	7%	13%	3
Patrick Mahomes	5.0	0.5	NA	NA	2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	5.0	1.3	18%	7%	3
Dak Prescott	4.7	1.0	NA	7%	3
Nyheim Hines	4.7	1.0	13%	6%	3
Russell Wilson	4.7	0.0	8%	6%	3
Tarik Cohen	4.7	0.0	7%	13%	3
Corey Clement	4.5	0.0	NA	NA	2
Jared Goff	4.3	0.7	10%	4%	3
Chase Edmonds	4.0	0.0	9%	14%	3
Carson Wentz	4.0	1.0	2%	4%	3
Daniel Jones	4.0	0.0	NA	9%	3
Dion Lewis	4.0	0.3	NA	15%	3
Deshaun Watson	4.0	0.3	4%	9%	3
Gardner Minshew	4.0	0.0	NA	7%	3

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Garbage Time

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum 10 touches and 25% “Garbage Rate”.

Player	Garbage Rate	Garbage Touches	Total Touches
Jeff Wilson	71%	12	17
Jordan Wilkins	68%	13	19
Lamical Perine	67%	8	12
Jamison Crowder	62%	8	13
Chris Herndon	56%	9	16
Braxton Berrios	50%	6	12
Deshaun Watson	50%	6	12
Chris Hogan	47%	7	15
Jared Goff	46%	6	13
Ben Roethlisberger	45%	5	11
Drew Sample	45%	5	11
Gus Edwards	44%	8	18
Kareem Hunt	44%	22	50
Peyton Barber	43%	9	21
Zack Moss	41%	9	22
Emmanuel Sanders	38%	5	13
O.J. Howard	38%	5	13
Will Fuller	38%	6	16
Christian Kirk	36%	4	11
Dwayne Haskins	36%	4	11
Josh Allen	36%	8	22
Tevin Coleman	36%	8	22
Randall Cobb	36%	5	14
Cole Beasley	35%	7	20
D’Andre Swift	35%	7	20
J.K. Dobbins	33%	5	15
Chris Conley	31%	5	16
Chris Thompson	31%	5	16
Lamar Jackson	31%	10	32
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	31%	22	71
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	29%	5	17
Ryan Fitzpatrick	29%	5	17
Logan Thomas	29%	7	24
Kenyan Drake	29%	17	59
Brandon Aiyuk	29%	4	14
Darrel Williams	29%	4	14
Hunter Renfrow	29%	4	14
J.D. McKissic	28%	7	25
Ito Smith	27%	3	11
Terry McLaurin	27%	7	26
Mark Ingram	27%	8	30
Calvin Ridley	26%	10	38
Alexander Mattison	26%	6	23
Darnell Mooney	25%	3	12
Jordan Akins	25%	3	12
Kendrick Bourne	25%	4	16
Michael Pittman	25%	3	12

Come back on Thursday for “The Fantasy Blueprint”, my weekly fantasy football preview column.