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Welcome to the Friday Walkthrough. Every week I’ll be outlining critical fantasy football context for the upcoming slate of games.
At the end of the article, I’ve included an extensive list of the stats used as well as what they are, why they’re useful, and where they came from.
Byes: Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, Patriots
Already Played: Steelers, Vikings
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Cowboys at Washington, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Cowboys Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.25
Dak Prescott started the season by delivering consistently efficient play. But he has been much more volatile over the last five weeks.
He was excellent against the Falcons, turning in his best week of the season. But he struggled badly against the Broncos and Chiefs. He also wasn’t great against the Saints, and overall he’s trending down in EPA* per play (which measures efficiency).
Prescott now ranks 18th in EPA per play, which is a disappointing result, given his talent level and weapons. But he has been better and more consistent in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which measures accuracy. That accuracy should lead to more efficient play over time or, at least, prevent a further downward trend.
Fortunately, Prescott now faces a Washington defense ranked 26th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. Washington ranks third in PFF’s pass-rush grades, but that hasn’t been enough to make them a good pass defense. As a result, teams are attacking them through the air. Washington’s opponents are averaging a 6% pass rate over expected and shifting 3% to pass.
After going extremely pass-heavy with a 21% pass rate over expected against the Buccaneers in Week 1, the Cowboys shifted dramatically to -11% against the Chargers in Week 2. Let’s just pause for a moment to reflect on the combination of good coaching and trend-setting that it took for the Cowboys to attack the league’s biggest pass funnel and the league’s biggest run funnel right on those terms, right out of the gate. Dallas has become a very balanced team since, finishing with a PROE between -5% and 5% from Week 3 on. But given that Dallas was so responsive to the Buccaneers’ pass funnel, we will likely see an increase in their passing volume against Washington.
To be fair, Washington hasn’t been quite as bad against the pass in recent weeks as they were to start the season. But airing it out against them remains the path of least resistance.
So, to sum up... Prescott’s accuracy indicates that he could have some positive regression on the way, he’s now facing weak pass defense, and he should see increased volume. This is all excellent news for his receivers.
Amari Cooper only ran a route on 50% of dropbacks in his return from Covid in Week 13, but he’ll likely be closer to full strength this week. Cooper’s usage was intriguing against the Saints. He saw 42% of his snaps in the slot, which is the highest rate he’s seen all season. I’ve previously discussed how Michael Gallup‘s return could actually be good for CeeDee Lamb if it allows him to play in the slot in 3WR sets while staying on the field for 2WR sets. Week 13 indicated that Cooper could also mix into the slot at a higher rate with Gallup back. This deployment can be seen as a slight boost for Cooper and for the real-life Cowboys offense, as it allows for more dynamic deployment of Lamb in 3WR sets.
The key question here is: when Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup are all fully healthy, which one will leave the field in 2WR sets? Unfortunately, we still don’t have a clear answer to that question. Gallup was working back from injury in Week 10; Cooper missed Weeks 11-12 with Covid and played a limited role in Week 13. This is an important question because the Cowboys have run 28% of their snaps out of 2TE sets. Whichever wide receiver is limited to 11 personnel will see significantly less playing time, assuming they don’t rotate their 2WR personnel.
The most logical choice would be to give Gallup less playing time. Lamb has an elite 2.27 YPRR this season, Cooper has a strong 1.86 YPRR, and Gallup has a poor 1.36. So taking Lamb off the field would be highly illogical. But until we see the Cowboys’ actual plan, this question creates volatility for all three players.
It’s also worth noting that Gallup has a 20% target rate to Cooper’s 19% this season. Gallup has a very poor 6.8 YPT, which is driving his inefficiency. He is actually earning targets at a high rate, and I won’t be shocked if he has a 90%+ route rate this week. All three look like attractive DFS options.
Dalton Schultz ran a route on 76% of dropbacks against the Saints and was targeted on 6% of his routes. His target rate was even worse in Gallup’s Week 10 return (7%). Assuming Cooper’s role grows substantially this week, Schultz is unlikely to see a huge spike in his target rate. He still has upside to produce a high yardage total, but his most straightforward path to a ceiling is through getting in the end zone.
Ezekiel Elliott is playing through injury, which is evident to anyone who has seen him play recently. But the Cowboys, bizarrely, have continued to play him heavily.
Tony Pollard revealed this week that he suffered a torn plantar fascia against the Saints. He will be a game-time decision. So the Cowboys will likely have no choice but to go full Zeke.
Elliott ranks 20th in NFL Next Gen’s success/attempt metric, which isn’t terrible... but he ranks RB43 in breakaway percentage, RB54 in elusive rating, and RB53 in YPRR. To be fair, those terrible are partly the result of him playing through injury. But his health also makes it unlikely that he will surprise us with an efficient game. Nevertheless, total control of this backfield would give him a nice floor/ceiling combo. Elliott is a volume-based low-end RB1 if Pollard misses the game.
*(Expected Points Added, EPA, is an efficiency metric that calculates the expected points of a game situation compared to the previous play. This measures how much each play added or subtracted from a team’s point expectation. I exclude garbage time for all EPA data in this article. Data courtesy of rbsdm.com)
Washington Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21.75
Taylor Heinicke ranks 14th in EPA per play and has finished top 10 in EPA per play in four straight weeks. His accuracy is good enough to make his strong play sustainable going forward. Heinicke now ranks sixth in CPOE.
Strong passing efficiency doesn’t necessarily mean a passing game will be... you know... fantasy relevant. And Washington’s passing game is definitely lacking for fantasy-relevant options, despite Heinicke’s efficient play. Part of the reason for this is that Washington is very much picking their spots with Heinicke.
Washington has now had a negative pass rate over expected in three straight weeks. So while Heinicke is showing a nice mix of accuracy and efficient play, he’s probably best thought of as Washington’s version of Teddy Bridgewater.
This week, Heinicke will have an especially tough time supporting fantasy production, facing a Cowboys defense ranked fourth in EPA allowed per dropback, eighth in pass-rush grade, and 13th in coverage grade. But, at least we know where the production will go if he can overcome the matchup.
Terry McLaurin‘s 44% air yard share is second to only to Justin Jefferson‘s 45%. If Heinicke can get going this week, or more likely, is forced to pass heavily from behind, McLaurin has upside for a big day. But McLaurin has just 73 yards over his last two games, demonstrating the perils of being in low volume passing attack, even when operating as a clear No. 1 option.
Ricky Seals-Jones is an intriguing tight end punt play, as he’ll likely take over the Logan Thomas role this week. There’s some risk that Seals-Jones plays limited snaps in his first game back from injury, but Washington has been highly consistent in its lack of a tight end rotation, so he’s at least worth considering.
The Cowboys are much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, ranking 19th in EPA allowed per rush and 30th in run defense grade. Given Washington’s recent shift in identity, and their desire to keep Prescott from lighting up their vulnerable defense, we’re likely to see a ball-control, run-heavy game plan this week.
J.D. McKissic is expected to be back from his concussion, which puts a damper on the Antonio Gibson breakout party. However, keep in mind that Gibson saw seven targets in Week 12, with McKissic playing 39% of snaps. McKissic definitely hurts Gibson. But Washington may be looking to involve Gibson more as a receiver, even with McKissic in the mix.
As 4.5 point underdogs, there’s some risk this game gets away from Washington, and we see a heavy dose of McKissic in obvious passing situations. But while the game is close, Gibson should be featured as a rusher, and he could see a significant target share in that game script. Gibson looks like a low-end RB1, with McKissic an RB2 option.
Jaguars at Titans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Jaguars Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 17.25
Trevor Lawrence has been downright awful this season, ranking 30th in EPA per play and 35th in CPOE—and he seems to be getting worse. Since the Jaguars’ Week 7 bye, Lawrence ranks 32nd in EPA per play and 38th (dead last) in CPOE. To put that in perspective, since Week 7, Zach Wilson ranks 25th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE. Wilson stinks... but he might be better than Lawrence.
Lawrence doesn’t fair well when compared to the last two rookie classes. As rookies, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson were all more efficient and more accurate than Lawrence has been this season. Among 1st round rookies since 2019, only Zach Wilson, Dwayne Haskins, and Josh Rosen were less efficient than Lawrence; only Rosen was less accurate. It’s bad.
Lawrence now gets a Titans defense with a middling ranking of 16th in EPA allowed per dropback. But the Titans have been a very up and down unit.
The Titans’ schedule only loosely correlates with their performance this season. Good passing offenses like the Cardinals and Bills played well against them. And they predictably limited the Saints and Jets (despite losing to them). But they played weakly against the hapless Texans while dominating the Chiefs and Rams. They’re a bit of a wildcard, but the Titans had a solid showing when facing Lawrence in Week 5, and this matchup sets up the rookie as a low ceiling, low floor option.
James O’Shaughnessy ran a route on 70% of dropbacks in Week 13 and had a 26% target rate. That usage makes him an attractive tight end punt play, despite operating in an offense that is in shambles. It’s a small sample, but O’Shaughnessy has a 19% target rate this year, precisely the same as Dan Arnold‘s with the Jaguars. This looks like a Washington situation where we can bet on the role rather than worrying about which tight end happens to be in it.
James Robinson was benched for part of Week 13 after a fumble, but Carlos Hyde also fumbled, so I wouldn’t expect that issue to carry into this game. Robinson has played 60% of snaps this season with a 10% target share. He should be involved regardless of game script and reasonably efficient against a Titans defense ranked 16th in EPA allowed per rush. He’s not the highest ceiling option but is a solid RB2.
Titans Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26.25
Ryan Tannehill ranks 10th in EPA per play, but it’s been a tale of two seasons. From Weeks 1-8, with Derrick Henry in the lineup, Tannehill ranked fifth in EPA play; he’s down to 23rd since. Part of this has been due to a decline in Tannehill’s accuracy. He was 11th in CPOE from Weeks 1-8 and ranks 18th since. But Tannehill’s decline is also likely related to the Titans’ lack of play action. From Weeks 1-8, Tannehill ranked 12th in play-action rate; he’s down to 24th since Week 9.
Todd Downing seems intent on not running play action unless his run game is working, which isn’t actually a requirement of successfully faking the run.
Fortunately, Tannehill has a good chance for a nice game because the Jaguars can’t stop the run or the pass. Jacksonville ranks 27th in EPA allowed per rush and 31st in EPA allowed per dropback. So Tannehill should be able to get back to a heavy play action attack here.
Tannehill has also been strong against the blitz, ranking eighth in yards per attempt against the blitz this season and sixth in 2020. The Jaguars blitz at the fifth-highest rate, so this matchup could play to Tannehill’s strengths in multiple ways.
Tannehill looks well-positioned this week, but he’ll still need to overcome not having A.J. Brown to throw to. Fortunately, he may have Julio Jones. Jones has been highly frustrating this season. Having dealt with multiple in-game injuries, he’s run a route on less than 60% of dropbacks twice this year and has another game with a 66% route rate. Jones still has a ceiling, though. He ran a route on 87% of dropbacks in Week 9 and could be a full-time player here after practicing in full all week. Jones has a 2.18 YPRR, so he’s actually been excellent when on the field. He’s run a bit hot with a 10.8 YPT, but with A.J. Brown out of the lineup, his target rate will likely increase a bit from his current 20%. Jones could easily be limited this week or suffer a setback, but he also has upside to soak up target volume—and remains a talented wide receiver.
The Titans’ run game is weak enough that most of its fantasy value is in setting up the passing game for success. But this week may be the exception, where there is actually fantasy value here... if we can figure out who to play.
Not only does Jacksonville rank 27th in EPA allowed per rush and 27th in run defense grade, but they’ve faced a remarkably easy schedule. Five of their 11 games have come against bottom-11 rushing offenses: the Texans, Dolphins, Rams, Bills, and Falcons. So the Titans rushing attack could actually get going here in a meaningful way.
Jeremy McNichols looks set to return from his concussion, making this backfield difficult to parse. Dontrelle Hilliard handled 51% of snaps in Week 12 with D’Onta Foreman at 49% and led 10% to 5% in target share. But Foreman handled 56% of backfield attempts and is probably more insulated from McNichols taking his work than Hilliard is. Ultimately this backfield looks like too much of a guessing game to trust. But there should be some value in it this week if you’re looking for a dart throw.
Seahawks at Texans, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Seahawks Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.5
Last week I covered how Wilson’s accuracy was down dramatically since his return from injury. But against the 49ers, he returned to form in a big way, ranking second in CPOE on the week.
Wilson’s efficiency was still lacking, though. He ranked 15th in EPA per play in Week 13 and still ranks just 27th this season. But Wilson is back up to second in CPOE and should see some positive regression in his efficiency if his accuracy is back to the level we’re used to.
The Texans rank 18th in EPA allowed per dropback, 11th in pass-rush grade, and 29th in coverage grade. They’ve played well a few times this season. But outside of obliterating Tannehill in Week 11, good quarterbacks haven’t had trouble against them.
However, the Texans are even worse against the run, ranking 20th in EPA allowed per rush and 24th in run defense grade. And with Davis Mills captaining Texans’ offense, the Seahawks will likely be in position to do Pete Carroll‘s very favorite thing in the whole wide world.
Rashaad Penny led Seattle with a 41% snap share in Week 13, and it would be logical for him to see additional carries with Adrian Peterson looking as washed as ever against the 49ers. Peterson saw 26% of snaps but handled a robust 41% of backfield attempts. If his workload is scaled back, Penny has upside to provide RB2 value.
The problem is that Travis Homer also saw 30% of snaps in Week 13, and Peterson is unlikely to entirely drop out of the mix. Ben Gretch noted that Peterson saw four touches inside the 10-yard line last week, which means he could be a real thorn in Penny’s side. Theoretically, one could play Peterson this week, but wow, dude, gross.
With the run game likely to be on full display this week, Russell Wilson looks unlikely to have a big game, but if his accuracy has indeed returned, he should be able to support at least one of DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett in this matchup.
This season, Lockett has an elite 2.24 YPRR and actually has a deeper aDOT than Metcalf (14.9 vs. 13.4). He’s shown a better connection with Wilson this year and only needs a few plays to deliver a big day. However, Metcalf has a 22% target rate to Lockett’s 20% and looks like a slightly higher upside play. It’s really a coin flip, though; both players have excellent profiles on a per route basis. Volume is likely to be limited once again this week, but they’ve been efficient enough for one of Lockett or Metcalf to hit a ceiling in this cakewalk matchup.
Texans Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16.5
Tyrod Taylor suffered a wrist injury against the Colts, which means Davis Mills will likely be back in the lineup this week. Last week I pointed out that Mills and Taylor had similar, terrible, accuracy. Taylor then melted down before his injury, and it’s now difficult to say that Mills represents a major downgrade at quarterback.
Mills is less mobile, sure. But he also rates higher in CPOE and should see some positive regression if he keeps up his current level of accuracy.
The Seahawks look at first glance like a mediocre-poor pass defense; they rank 17th in EPA allowed per dropback, 26th in pass-rush grade, and 28th in coverage grade. But the Seahawks have had the most difficult schedule of any pass defense. Eight of their 11 games have come against top -3 offenses in EPA per play: the Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Vikings, 49ers (twice), Washington, and Titans. And they’ve played all three of the top-ranked teams in EPA per play (the Cardinals, Packers, and Rams). The fact that the Seahawks rank 17th in EPA allowed per dropback at this point indicates that they could make quick work of Davis Mills.
Over his last three games, Brandin Cooks has a combined line of 8-101-1. He still has a massive share of the Texans offense, with a 28% target share and a 43% air yard share. But he hasn’t been good enough to overcome abysmal quarterback play. In his defense, very few wide receivers are. Cooks is a low floor, medium ceiling option this week.
Cooks has also been hurt by the fact that the Texans are a run-first team. Houston has a -3% pass rate over expected. They rank 23rd in PROE and 29th in situation-neutral pass rate. The Texans are terrible at running the ball, but bad running plays aren’t as embarrassing to put on national television as bad passing plays.
Rex Burkhead led the backfield with a 46% snap share in Week 13, with Royce Freeman at 42% and (I kid you not) Jaylen Samuels at 15%. This will be a split backfield even if the Texans have to sign Isaiah Crowell to field a third running back.
Raiders at Chiefs, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Raiders Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19
Derek Carr is having an impressive season, ranking ninth in EPA per play 10th in CPOE. But things are trending in the wrong direction.
First, the Chiefs defense doesn’t appear to be the cupcake matchup it used to be. The Chiefs still rank just 25th in EPA allowed per dropback, but they’ve been much better in recent weeks.
PFF’s grades are starting to pick this up, with the Chiefs now up to seventh in coverage grade. Critically, the Chiefs’ improvement does not appear to be driven by their schedule, which has actually gotten more challenging as the season has gone on.
The Chiefs don’t look like an imposing matchup, to be clear. And even if they were, Carr managed 373 passing yards against a decidedly better Dallas defense. But there’s a second issue here... Carr is steadily losing playmakers.
With Darren Waller out again this week, Carr’s top playmaker is inarguably Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow has 2.05 YPRR, with a very strong 24% target rate. Renfrow is a low upside option, though, with a 6.6 aDOT. He’s also run hot with an 8.6 YPT, which is high for an underneath option. But Renfrow ran a route on 95% of dropbacks last week, and the Raiders are clearly leaning on him. He’s basically the alpha wide receiver version of Cole Beasley.
DeSean Jackson is still not a full-time player and looks unlikely to become one. He had a 56% route rate against the Cowboys. 10 days later, he was at just 43% against Washington. Jackson can hit a big play or two on any given week, but he’s mostly to fall short of usable production while meaningfully impacting Bryan Edwards’ route rate.
Edwards had a 67% route rate in Week 12 and 69% in Week 13. Edwards has a 1.21 YPRR this season, so it’s not clear he should be on the field more than he has been. But Zay Jones has a 1.13 YPRR, so he’s been even worse. For some reason, the Raiders prefer Jones. He seems likely to run the most routes on the outside if that does anything for you.
One silver lining for Carr is that Josh Jacobs, long absent from the passing game, now appears to be turning into a receiving weapon. “Turning into” is probably the wrong way to put it. Jacobs had a career 2.07 YPRR at Alabama, a great mark for a running back. That’s a better mark than Saquon Barkley (1.66), Leonard Fournette (1.62), D’Andre Swift (1.53), Najee Harris (1.13), Kareem Hunt (1.04), and many other running backs who have made receiving production a critical element of their NFL profile. To be clear, he was well below elite, receiving running back prospects like Christian McCaffrey (2.81) and Alvin Kamara (2.49). But it’s always been strange that the Raiders treated Jacobs like a two-down grinder when his college production pointed to some real promise as a receiving back.
John Gruden clearly did not view Jacobs like we expected him to. But in the weeks since Gruden’s firing, it appears that the coaching staff has become more interested in using Jacobs as a receiver.
With Kenyan Drake now out for the season and Jalen Richard potentially out this week with Covid, Jacobs has upside to deliver value as a three-down workhorse. He handled a season-high 86% snap share against Washington. And while Peyton Barber will be active this week to mix in on early downs, Jacobs may see a 70%+ snap rate with a dedicated receiving role, which would make him a clear RB1 play.
Chiefs Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 29
The Chiefs got the win on Sunday night, but Patrick Mahomes had a rough outing, finishing with his second-lowest EPA per play of the season.
EPA can be affected by variance. For example, the ball bouncing off of Tyreek Hill‘s hands for an interception will have a much bigger negative impact than if the ball fell to the ground. So it can be helpful to look at CPOE as well. And... the trend here is actually even more concerning.
I don’t want to overstate things; Mahomes ranks eighth in EPA per play and 14th in CPOE this season. That’s not great, compared to what we expect from him, but we’re still talking about a top 10 performance in efficiency. And Mahomes now gets a Raiders defense that he torched for 406 yards and five TDs the last time they played.
The Raiders are also the best reason we have to buy into the Cover-2 narrative. Las Vegas ran Cover-2 on just 1.3% of their snaps when facing the Chiefs in Week 10. Given the results, they may mix things up, but the Raiders have played Cover-2 at the third-lowest rate in the league. They clearly prefer a particular style of coverage. Las Vegas is the only team in the league to have played a majority of their snaps in Cover-3.
Keep in mind that the Cover-2 narrative was in full force before the Raiders played the Chiefs in Week 10, and the Raiders took a hard pass on following the crowd. Again, maybe they rethink things this week, but the Raiders could be an identity defense that game plans for what it does best, rather than allowing matchups to dictate its coverages.
And the Raiders are a pretty solid defense. They rank 19th in EPA allowed per dropback, second in pass-rush grade, and 20th in coverage grade. So there’s reason to think that they will fare at least somewhat better against Mahomes than in their first meeting, regardless of scheme.
Despite the lack of Cover-2, the Raiders are allowing 15+ yard passes at the third-lowest rate. That’s not great news for Tyreek Hill and may help explain why he delivered just 83 yards on 10 targets in Week 10. Hill got in the end zone twice, so it was hardly a bad game for the star wide-out. But Hill hasn’t been the home run hitter that we’re used to this season. That probably won’t change this week. Instead, his ceiling is more likely to come through solid efficiency on high target volume. Hill has an elite 27% target rate this season, and even if he’s not as likely to hit 20+ yard TDs as he was in years past, he still has an elite ceiling.
I remain worried about Travis Kelce, who appears to be turning into more of an underneath outlet than a downfield weapon. But even though he had a shallow 6.2 aDOT against the Raiders in Week 10, he went off for 8-119 on nine targets. Kelce has a 7.7 aDOT this season, and he’s starting to look more like Dalton Schultz than any of us would like to admit, but he can still easily have a ceiling game here.
Byron Pringle is clearly the WR2 on the Chiefs at this point but has a 1.38 YPRR and is actually due for some negative regression in per-target efficiency. It’s just Hill and Kelce in this passing game.
The Raiders are actually a run funnel. Teams are shifting 4% to the run against them. But even if the Chiefs follow suit, that shift would still have them passing at a Chargers-esque rate. We won’t see a run-first approach here, but we could see some additional work for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Edwards-Helaire handled 70% of backfield attempts in Week 13 but just 51% of snaps. And he’s actually facing a capable Raiders run defense that ranks ninth in EPA allowed per rush. The Raiders are a run funnel primarily because teams are avoiding their high-quality pass rush rather than attacking a weakness. CEH could see more volume than usual, but he still has multiple paths to failure.
Saints Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24
Taysom Hill will be playing through mallet finger against the Jets. This is the same injury that Russell Wilson suffered earlier this year, although hopefully, Hill’s version is less severe. Hill was highly inaccurate against the Cowboys, finishing ahead of only Trevor Lawrence and Tyrod Taylor in CPOE. But Hill ran for 101 yards and tacked on 264 passing yards and two TDs. He’s unlikely to be efficient or accurate, but against the Jets, he should be able to deliver another nice week.
Hopefully, Hill’s finger is healthy enough to allow him to throw deep because the Jets are allowing 15+ yard passes at the highest rate in the NFL. This helps explain how the Jets rank 32nd in EPA allowed per dropback despite having a fairly easy schedule that has included two bottom five passing offenses (the Texans and Panthers).
Alvin Kamara will likely be back this week, operating as the Saints’ only fantasy-relevant receiving option. Kamara remains an elite receiving back and ranks eighth in YPRR, just ahead of Austin Ekeler. But Kamara ranks RB45 in success/attempt, RB57 in breakaway percentage, and RB42 in elusive rating. He has been highly disappointing as a rusher this season.
Fortunately, he gets a terrible Jets run defense that ranks 31st in EPA allowed per rush and 32nd in run defense grade. The Jets’ schedule has also been pretty easy in terms of rushing matchups, so this is a legitimately terrible defense. If Kamara can’t light them up, we’ll need to seriously entertain the possibility that he’s lost a step. But he has an elite ceiling this week.
Jets Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19
Zach Wilson was already having a terrible rookie season. The last thing he needed was his weapons to start getting hurt. But he’s now lost Corey Daivs for the season, and Elijah Moore is battling a quad injury. Wilson ranks 35th in EPA per play and 34th in CPOE. If his top receiving options are Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, and Denzel Mims, it could get ugly.
Wilson is also facing a difficult matchup. The Saints rank 10th in EPA allowed per dropback and seventh in coverage grade. Although, Wilson should have time to throw, at least. The Saint rank just 31st in pass-rush grade. But... the rookie ranks QB31 in YPA when kept clean, so it’s not like he’s been lighting up defenses with poor pass rushes.
Wilson’s inefficiency sets the bar very high for the talent level needed to break through this situation, making Elijah Moore the only interesting receiver. Unfortunately, Moore logged DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday and looks doubtful for Week 14. I can’t stomach starting a wide receiver outside of Moore here. Moore has a 1.75 YPRR, has upside for positive YPT regression, and could be a high-end NFL talent. Keelan Cole and Jamison Crowder have far less attractive 1.42 and 1.22 YPRRs and are known commodities.
Tevin Coleman is dealing with a concussion, likely leaving Ty Johnson splitting the backfield with Austin Walter. Walter had a surprisingly significant role in Week 12 with a 24% snap share and 29% of backfield attempts; Johnson was at 34% and 19%. However, Walter took a back seat to Coleman in Week 13, dropping to a 14% snap share and 8% of backfield attempts.
This is pure guesswork on my part, but I expect Walter to take on a larger share of the rushing work than Johnson this week. Even if he does, he’s going up against a Saints defense that ranks third in EPA allowed per rush and second in run defense grade. Both he and Johnson are desperation RB2 plays.
Falcons at Panthers, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Falcons Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 19.25
Matt Ryan ranks 15th in EPA per play and 16th in CPOE. He’s having a solid season, but he’s been shaky recently. His worst two games in EPA per play have come over the last four weeks, and Week 13 was his fourth-worst outing of the season.
This week he faces a very strong Panthers defense that ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback, 12th in pass-rush grade, and sixth in coverage grade. They also rank first in quick pressures (2.5 seconds or less).
Ryan did not fare well when he faced the Panthers, throwing for 146 yards, one TD, and two interceptions. Given his recent performances, this doesn’t look like the ideal time for a rematch.
With Ryan in a tough spot this week, I’m not buying the Russell Gage hype, at all. Gage has seen a nice bump in his route rate, with an 85%+ route rate in each of the last three weeks. But Gage has a mediocre 1.58 YPRR that aligns with his target profile. In addition, his 7.5 aDOT makes him a low ceiling option, and this matchup gives him a very low floor.
Kyle Pitts has seen a distressing downtrend in his target share. After a six-week streak of 21%+ target share, Pitts had a 16% target share in Week 11 and is coming off a 15% target share. However, Pitts still has a strong 1.82 YPRR, leads all non-Ridley receivers with an 83% route rate, and has a high ceiling role with an 11.2 aDOT. I still think that he’s the best way to play this passing game, even though his lack of involvement in the red zone has been perplexing.
Cordarrelle Patterson saw 15 snaps in the slot or out-wide against the Buccaneers, his highest total since Week 7 and his third-highest total of the season. Patterson still played 19 backfield snaps, his fifth-highest of the season. After a stretch of being a true running back, Patterson looks to be back in a hybrid role. This allowed Mike Davis’ snap share to recover a bit.
The Panthers aren’t bad against the run, but they’re far less imposing than they are against the pass; they rank 13th in EPA allowed per rush and 22nd in run defense grade. Opponents are attacking on the ground with an average PROE of -5% and a 4% shift to the run. Patterson looks like a high-end RB2 in this matchup, with multiple paths to value.
Panthers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 21.75
Cam Newton will be back under center in Week 14, but he’ll be operating under a new offensive coordinator. Joe Brady was fired over the Panthers’ bye week, reportedly due to a lack of rushing plays.
Newton has some appeal in this matchup if he’s going to be running a Taysom Hill-style offense. But it seems unlikely that he has much passing volume this week.
Newton does at least get a very easy matchup. The Falcons rank 28th in EPA allowed per dropback, 32nd in pass-rush grade, and 26th in coverage grade. So Newton is a poor bet for a high volume passing day, but he could support his top option.
DJ Moore has managed to stay fantasy relevant, despite his situation becoming increasingly challenging. Moore has a 1.98 YPRR, but he’s running very cold in YPT. His 25% target rate is elite for his 11.1 aDOT. So there’s untapped upside if Newton can play efficiently this week. Although, with Carolina now about to shift heavily to the run, Moore looks like the Panther’s version of Terry McLaurin. He’s a volatile option, but he is at least thoroughly dominating the passing game.
Chuba Hubbard becomes interesting in the Panthers’ new-look offense. He played just 20% of snaps in Week 12, with Ameer Abdullah at 49%. But Hubbard handled 14% of backfield attempts, which matched Abdullah. I would have preferred the receiving back in Brady’s offense, but Hubbard seems more likely to benefit from a downhill running game. Of course, Newton looms as a TD vulture. But the Falcons rank 21st in EPA allowed per rush and 21st in run defense grades, so Hubbard could rack up rushing yardage.
Ravens at Browns, 1 PM Eastern, Sunday
Ravens Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 20
Lamar Jackson looked like he was headed for a breakout season as a passer, with a CPOE of at least 4.5 in four of his first six games. But his accuracy has tailed off in recent weeks in a big way.
Jackson is down to 20th in EPA per play 24th in CPOE. He now gets a Browns defense that ranks 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, so this should theoretically be a bounce-back spot. But Jackson was awful against the Browns in Week 12, ranking 26th in EPA per play and 22nd in CPOE.
The Browns could pose a challenge for Jackson again this week because they do an excellent job of taking away the deep pass. The Browns are allowing the fourth-lowest rate of 15+ yard passes this year. They also rank third in PFF’s coverage grades.
With a 43 point total, the betting market is not expecting these teams to push each other into a high-volume script. As a result, Jackson looks most likely to access a ceiling as a rusher, making his weapons low floor options.
Marquise Brown had a 91% route rate against the Steelers and has an impressive 1.99 YPRR. His 13.3 aDOT doesn’t make him an ideal fit for this matchup, but he does at least only need a few big plays to make his day.
Mark Andrews may be better suited for this matchup. And in fact, he led the Ravens with 10 targets in Week 12 and delivered a team-high 2.10 YPRR. This season, Andrews has a 1.92 YPRR and is nearly the co-WR1 in this offense.
Rashod Bateman had just a 38% route rate in Week 13, part of a strange downtrend in his usage.
Last week, I flagged him as a part-time player, but now he’s starting to look like a rotational player.
Devonta Freeman, meanwhile, looks like the Ravens’ clear starting running back. Even with Latavius Murray back against the Steelers, Freeman hit a season-high 70% snap share.
The Browns are a solid run defense, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per rush and eighth in run defense grade. But they have been a run funnel, with teams shifting 2% to the run against them. Freeman is unlikely to be efficient this week, but he should have enough volume to warrant RB2 consideration.
Browns Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23
Baker Mayfield is having a tough season, ranking just 23rd in EPA per play. And it may get worse from here, given his miserable accuracy; Mayfield ranks just 28th in CPOE.
But Mayfield is well suited for this matchup because he’s willing to throw deep. Mayfield ranks fourth in deep passing rate and a respectable 15th in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws. The Ravens rank 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, so they’re vulnerable through the air in general. But they’re particularly vulnerable deep. Only the Jets and Lions allow 15+ yard passes at a higher rate. Mayfield also ranks eighth in YPA against the blitz. And the Ravens blitz at the fourth-highest rate. So this sets up as a near-perfect matchup for him.
Mayfield did, of course, just have a mediocre 247-1 line against the Ravens in Week 12. But he just had two weeks to get healthier and prepare for the rematch. He should have a much better outing this week.
Jarvis Landry is the clear top option in this passing game, with a 22% target share, but I won’t fault you if you’re not excited about playing him. He has just an 8.5 aDOT and a 22% air yard share. But Landry actually has an impressive 25% target rate and could see some deeper targets this week than he usually does.
Donovan Peoples-Jones holds some dart throw appeal this week as well. His 16.3 aDOT makes him the perfect way to challenge the Ravens downfield. Peoples-Jones has just a 1.42 YPRR this season, so he’s definitely a thin option, but he ran a route on 83% of dropbacks in Week 12 and should at least run a full slate of routes. Peoples-Jones is also slightly more interesting if David Njoku is out this week (Covid). Njoku operates deep with a 13.8 aDOT, and if he’s out, it will leave DPJ as the main deep threat.
If Njoku is out, Austin Hooper will be the Browns’ clear TE1, but Hooper is an underneath option with a 5.8 aDOT. He’s a TD-dependent option but should see increased volume with Harrison Bryant also out with an ankle injury.
Nick Chubb had a 50% snap share in Week 12, with Kareem Hunt at 38% and D’Ernest Johnson at 10%. He has more upside from there if the Browns can play from ahead, but Chubb will need to be efficient to deliver a big week.
He’s facing a Ravens team that’s actually very capable against the run, ranking second in EPA allowed per rush and 13th in run defense grade. Chubb struggled badly in Week 12, with just 16 yards on eight carries, adding 23 yards on two receptions. He looks like a high-end RB2, given the matchup.
Giants at Chargers, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Giants Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 17
Mike Glennon suffered a concussion on Sunday, and Daniel Jones is still dealing with a neck injury, meaning that we’re going to get Jake Fromm‘s NFL starting debut against the Chargers.
The Chargers rank 13th in EPA allowed per dropback, ninth in pass-rush grade, and 15th in coverage grade. They seem to be coming into their own as a pass defense.
The path to beating the Chargers is through the running game, and the Giants are very likely to lean heavily on their rushing attack here. Teams are shifting 5% to the run against the Chargers; the Giants will likely shift even more heavily this week. The Giants averaged a 4% pass rate over expected this year but seem like a safe bet to be solidly run-heavy this week.
Saquon Barkley becomes an interesting option this week as a bet on pure volume... but also as a bet that he can break big plays. 41% of Barkley’s yards have come on 15+ yard runs, which gives him the highest breakaway percentage in the league. Barkley is averaging just 2.4 yards per carry on his non-breakaway runs, which is why it feels like he can’t possibly be leading the NFL in a rushing metric. But he’s facing a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in EPA allowed per rush and 23rd in run defense grade. He has a path to improved efficiency if Fromm isn’t a total disaster, and he has the potential to generate some big gains here. Barkley played on 75% of snaps against the Dolphins. The Giants season is done, but Barkley isn’t.
Chargers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 27
It feels like every time I write about Justin Herbert, I’m explaining how the version we just saw of him isn’t telling the whole story. This week we’re coming off a good-Herbert game, and he’s now up to seventh in EPA per play. He is, without a doubt, having a great season. But his accuracy really has been all over the place.
Herbert now ranks 17th in CPOE. His accuracy isn’t a disaster by any means, but he ranks behind Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan, which helps explain why he’s had some real down weeks pop up.
This week he’s facing a Giants defense that ranks 11th in EPA allowed per dropback and is trending in the right direction.
The Giants rank 28th in pass-rush grade and 21st in coverage grade, so Herbert can definitely have a big game against them if he’s in good form. But the Giants are frisky enough to limit Herbert if he’s struggling.
Herbert’s chances of a big game are more significantly impacted by Keenan Allen‘s absence this week. If Mike Williams is also unable to play, the Chargers would be shorthanded enough that it will probably impact their passing attempts. But Williams has already had one negative Covid test and seems likely to be active.
Williams is coming off a 110-yard performance where he delivered 2.75 YPRR. He ran a route on 100% of dropbacks and looks likely to be the engine of the passing attack this week.
Jalen Guyton is on the field to do one thing: run deep. And he’s on the field for one reason: he’s fast. So Keenan Allen‘s absence is unlikely to shift Guyton’s role in a meaningful way. Guyton has just a 0.87 YPRR, and I’m not interested in him even as a dart throw. On the other hand, Josh Palmer is likely to see a big uptick in usage. Keenan Allen has played 62% of his snaps in the slot, and Palmer has played a healthy 41% of his snaps there. Palmer has just a 14% target rate, so he’s a dart throw play. But I definitely prefer him to Guyton.
We could see some additional 2TE deployment this week as well, meaning more prominent roles for Jared Cook and Donald Parham. Parham only ran a route on 33% of dropbacks against the Bengals and would need a much bigger role to be interesting. But Cook ran a route on 65% of dropbacks and could see that spike to 70%+, which would make him an interesting punt play.
This season, Austin Ekeler is RB8 in expected points per game and has played very well, with 3.9 points over expected per game. He’s set up for continued success this week, facing a Giants team ranked 27th in EPA allowed per rush and 28th in run defense grade. The Chargers are a pass-first team, with a 7% pass rate over expected; they rank third in PROE and fourth in situation-neutral pass rate. But there’s a version of this game where the Chargers destroy the Giants. In most of those scripts, Ekeler is getting in the end zone.
Lions at Broncos, 4:05 PM Eastern, Sunday
Lions Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 16
Jared Goff finally had some positive regression against the Vikings in Week 13. Unfortunately, that positive regression was a 16th ranked finish in EPA per play... so it’s not like we’re talking about spike week potential here. But it’s nice that Goff does have upside to support a weapon or two... on occasion.
Goff still ranks just 34th in EPA per play and 20th in CPOE. He could see some additional positive regression, but he’s also very susceptible to terrible weeks.
This week he gets a Broncos defense that I flagged a few weeks ago as a potential regression candidate due to their easy schedule. But the Broncos have continued to play very well on defense in recent weeks, and rank 15th in EPA allowed per dropback. PFF doesn’t grade them well; they rank 27th in pass-rush grade and 22nd in coverage grade. But they’re probably good enough to handle the Lions without D’Andre Swift. And the quality of their recent opponents makes it hard to dismiss the Broncos as a bad defense.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had a breakout game against the Vikings, with 10 receptions for 86 yards and the game-winning TD. But even in that performance, St. Brown had a good but not amazing 1.95 YPRR. He has a 1.21 YPRR on the season, plays 82% of his snaps in the slot, and has just a 6.9 aDOT. He’s firmly a low ceiling option, but he does have some PPR flex appeal.
T.J. Hockenson has scored TDs in back-to-back weeks but has produced just 84 total yards on 7 receptions. He remains a TD-dependent option unless Goff can sustain his recent signs of life.
The Broncos are a solid run defense, ranking 12th in run defense grade, putting Jamaal Williams in a tough spot. In Week 13, Williams wasn’t the workhorse we suspected he might be. Williams handled 71% of backfield attempts but just 47% of snaps. And Godwin Igwebuike actually led the backfield with a 56% route rate, while Williams was at just 20%. With Williams boxed into an early-down role on a team with just a 16 point implied team total, he looks like a low-ceiling RB2 option.
Broncos Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 26
It might not feel like it... but Teddy Bridgewater is having a good season. He ranks 16th in EPA per play and ninth in CPOE. The problem is that an accurate, semi-efficient, low-volume passing game might be a good outcome for Bridgewater, but it doesn’t support a ton of fantasy production.
That could change a bit this week. The Lions rank 30th in EPA allowed per dropback, 25th in pass-rush grade, and 32nd in coverage grade. The Lions have been a little more respectable recently, but they’re still highly exploitable.
One feature of the Lions’ defense is especially interesting: they are allowing 15+ yard passes at the second-highest rate in the league; only the Jets are worse.
Courtland Sutton has gotten frustrating to the point where many fantasy managers have likely given up on him entirely. But Sutton is set up very well for a bounce-back game. Sutton has a mediocre 1.59 YPRR, and he has been targeted on only 18% of his routes. But Sutton has a 16.3 aDOT, making him a true deep threat. As Teddy Bridgewater‘s deep threat, we should expect him to have trouble consistently drawing targets. As we saw with D.J. Moore in that role in 2020, it can be a frustrating experience.
Don’t worry; I’m not ignoring that Jerry Jeudy‘s return has impacted Sutton. Since Jeudy’s return, Sutton has seen just an 11% target rate, while Jeudy has been at 21%. In addition, Jeudy has had a solid 1.90 YPRR, to Sutton’s abysmal 0.71. Jeudy is clearly the better option here, and if you’re done with Sutton, I get it. But if Sutton is going to deliver another spike week, this is the matchup for him to do it.
Noah Fant has route rates of 70% and 68% over the last two weeks and doesn’t look like a true full-time option in this offense. If you need to gamble on him, this is the week to do it, but he still looks like a TE2.
Javonte Williams got his opportunity against the Chiefs and was excellent. In particular, Williams shined as a receiver with a 2.71 YPRR, the second-highest among running backs. Williams now ranks RB8 in success/attempt, RB10 in breakaway percentage, RB2 in elusive rating, and RB17 in YPRR. He looks like a complete running back.
The issue is... how much will Gordon eat into his workload? In a rational world, Williams would handle as much as 75% of snaps this week. But realistically, I expect Williams and Gordon to return a near 50/50 split. Hopefully, it’s more of a 55/45 split with Williams in the lead. If so, Williams can deliver a big week in this matchup. The Lions aren’t terrible against the run, but they are terrible overall, making it easy to rack up rushing attempts against them. Williams looks like a low-end RB1 even with Gordon back in the lineup.
49ers at Bengals, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
49ers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 25.25
Jimmy Garoppolo ranks sixth in EPA per play. It’s hard to argue that he’s not having a strong season... so I’m not going to do that. But I do think his efficiency is overstating things a bit. He ranks 18th in CPOE and has the advantage of playing in well-designed, low-volume attack.
One area where I’ll give Garoppolo some real credit is against the blitz, against which he leads the league in YPA. But the Bengals don’t blitz. They rank 30th in blitz rate, rendering one of Garoppolo’s better qualities moot.
The Bengals rank seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, but they’ve had an easy schedule. PFF’s grades are likely a better reflection of their defensive strength, where they rank 22nd in pass-rush grade and 16th in coverage grade.
The Bengals are also a pass funnel. Opponents are shifting 3% to the pass against them and averaging a 3% PROE. So, although it’s not a perfect matchup for Garoppolo in terms of playing to his strengths, he should be able to keep up his efficiency this week and could see some additional volume.
With Deebo Samuel out, Brandon Aiyuk ran a route on 97% of dropbacks, with Trent Sherfield at 97% and Jauan Jennings at 65%. Aiyuk has a 22% target rate since his role was restored in Week 8. Last week was disappointing, but he still has a high ceiling as the 49ers’ WR1.
Although, George Kittle is arguably the team’s WR1 right now. He was up to a 90% route rate against the Seahawks and had a ridiculous 6.46 YPRR—seeing a target on 43% of his routes and delivering a 15.1 YPT. Kittle now has an ultra-elite 2.50 YPRR. Volume is always a question, but Kittle can provide another big week if the Bengals push the 49ers.
Elijah Mitchell is recovering from a concussion, likely leaving Jeff Wilson and JaMycal Hasty in a committee. Mitchell ranks RB21 in expected points per game, a solid ranking. But if his role is split between two players, it becomes far less appealing. Wilson looks like the better bet of the two but is a TD-dependent RB2 option.
Bengals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 23.75
Joe Burrow will be playing through a pinky injury in Week 13, which has limited him in practice. However, if Burrow is healthy, this could be a big week for him. Burrow ranks 11th in EPA per play and fourth in CPOE, and the 49ers’ defense sets him up for a big day.
The 49ers rank 27th in EPA allowed per dropback, 23rd in pass-rush grade, and 11th in coverage grade. If the Bengals can lean on Burrow here, he could support multiple weapons.
Ja’Marr Chase has cooled off recently and is down to 2.30 YPRR. The fact that he’s cooled off and still has truly elite efficiency is pretty wild. Although, Chase’s target rate has dropped more than I’d like to see. He’s down to 21% and is now firmly behind Tee Higgins, at 24%. Higgins has seen his aDOT increase recently to 12.2 and now has an elite target profile. Higgins looks like the better play at this point, although I think Chase still has the higher ceiling. The nice thing about this offense is that teams can’t take Chase away without getting hit with Higgins and vice-versa. This is one of the reasons why having two star wide receivers is actually a good thing for both players. It makes predicting each player more difficult every week, but it raises the offense’s ceiling and makes the overall passing game more reliable each week. Both players look like low-end WR1s against the 49ers.
Tyler Boyd‘s profile is closer to C.J. Uzomah‘s than Chase’s and Higgins’. That might seem like hyperbole, but Boyd has a 1.49 YPRR, which is in line with his target profile, and closer to Uzomah’s 1.06 YPRR than the top wide receivers in this offense. Boyd is still in play as a FLEX option if we get good reports on Burrow’s health.
Joe Mixon has been dealing with an illness this week, putting his availability in question. It’s not an ideal matchup, with the 49ers ranking fifth in EPA against the rush and 11th in run defense grade. But the Bengals have shown a commitment to the run recently, and Mixon is a locked-in RB1 if he goes.
Bills at Buccaneers, 4:25 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bills Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 25
Josh Allen ranks 21st in EPA per play and eighth in CPOE... and that includes a game where he dropped back 37 times in intense wind that limited his opponent to just three dropbacks.
Not only were the Bills willing to pass against the Patriots, but they weren’t even that heavily tilted toward the run. Despite the wind, they finished with a -3% pass rate over expected—higher than the season-long rates for the Browns, Saints, Lions, Eagles, Patriots, Titans, and 49ers. If the Bills were willing to continue passing in Week 13, they should have no problem being extremely pass-heavy in Week 14.
The Buccaneers continue to be an absurdly impactful pass-funnel. Their opponents are averaging a 10% pass rate over expected and are shifting 10% to the pass. The Bills likely accept the Buccaneers’ invite to pass heavily here, and as a result, they’ll probably have the highest pass rate over expected of any team this week.
The Buccaneers aren’t a disaster at defending the pass, however. They rank 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback, 21st in pass-rush grade, and third in coverage grade. The Buccaneers also blitz at the league’s second second-highest rate, and Allen has struggled against it; he ranks QB26 in YPA against the blitz. Allen is a lock for passing volume, but he may struggle with efficiency.
Even if Allen struggles, increased volume alone makes Stefon Diggs an exhilarating play. Diggs has 2.06 YPRR this season and a very strong 24% target rate for his 12.1 aDOT. If this game delivers as a competitive, back and forth affair, Diggs is set up for a big day.
Cole Beasley is back to a full-time role and should be viewed as the co-WR2 in the offense, alongside Emmanuel Sanders. Beasley has a 5.8 aDOT to Sanders’ 19.0, so he needs passing volume to get there. But that looks like a great bet this week, which makes him the more appealing option here.
Dawson Knox ran a route on 92% of dropbacks against the Patriots and is entering Logan Thomas territory where we just need to start betting blindly on the routes. Knox has a mediocre-poor 1.40 YPRR, but he could easily lead all tight ends in routes run this week. He looks like a mid TE1.
If Zack Moss is active again, the Bills’ running backs are best avoided. But Moss actually looks like the most interesting option if he plays. He ran a route on 30% of dropbacks in Week 13, which was just behind Singletary’s 35%. Moss has a 1.14 YPRR which is quite a bit better than Singletary’s 0.52, and he could get in on the passing game action. Although again... it’s a very thin bet.
Buccaneers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 28.5
Tom Brady is having an incredible season and ranks fifth in EPA per play and 12th in CPOE. He now gets a difficult test in a Bills defense that ranks first in EPA allowed per dropback, 13th in pass-rush grade, and first in coverage grade. But the Bills defense has faced the easiest passing schedule in the league. Brady may not light them up, but it’s unlikely that he truly struggles.
Brady is also likely to have his normal passing volume, even though the Bills are popping as a run-funnel. After the Patriots laid a -57% pass rate over expected on the Bills, they look like the biggest run funnel in the league. But obviously, there are some extenuating circumstances. Still, even heading into Week 13, teams were shifting 1% to the run against the Bills, and the Patriots game plan should count for something. But the Buccaneers haven’t tilted to the run in a single game this season, so they should have no problem ignoring a moderate run-funnel.
Chris Godwin is coming off a huge week where he went 15-143 on 17 targets. Godwin is up to 1.91 YPRR, although that is inflated by a 9.3 YPT, which is very high for his 7.6 aDOT. Mike Evans has a 1.62 YPRR but has a more impressive target profile with an 18% target rate and a 13.4 aDOT.
In retrospect, I should have been higher on Godwin last week. The matchup set up the Buccaneers for high volume, and Godwin was in position to benefit with his 21% target rate. This week also sets up better for Godwin. It’s easy to see a ton of passing attempts here, even if both quarterbacks have somewhat middling performances.
Over the last two weeks, Rob Gronkowski has been heavily involved with an 83% route rate and a 24% target rate. He has an elite 2.27 YPRR and is an elite option this week.
Leonard Fournette has multiple paths to a big day. The Bills’ aren’t terrible in run defense; they rank fourth in EPA allowed per rush and 16th in run defense grade. But teams have found success pounding them on the ground, and Fournette is certainly capable of leading such an attack. But if the Buccaneers instead embrace a shootout environment, Fournette can also deliver as a receiver. He has a 78% route rate over the last two weeks and a 24% target rate. He’s game script independent and could be heavily involved in making this a high-scoring game.
Bears at Packers, 8:20 PM Eastern, Sunday
Bears Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 15
Justin Fields will be back under center in Green Bay. Hopefully, he’ll have a better day than his first game against the Packers, when he managed just 174 passing yards.
It has not been a good season for Fields. He ranks 29th in EPA per play, ahead of only Trevor Lawrence, Sam Darnold, Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, Jared Goff, Zach Wilson, and Trevor Siemian. He does at least rank 26th in CPOE. I say “at least” not because 26th is good, but because it’s ahead of Andy Dalton‘s 31st ranked accuracy.
The Packers rank 14th in EPA allowed per dropback, seventh in pass-rush grade, and 14th in coverage grade. They are a legitimate defense. Fields will likely need to have a good day as a scrambler to hit fantasy value.
It sounds like Fields will have Allen Robinson back from his hamstring injury. However, Robinson has an awful 1.26 YPRR, so his impact could be fairly minimal. Robinson should see some positive regression on his 6.8 YPT, but his 19% target rate isn’t great, and he looks like a low-end FLEX option.
Darnell Mooney is a little more interesting, given his 22% target rate on his 12.2 aDOT. In addition, he has 1.81 YPRR, which is very impressive given his circumstances.
David Montgomery took full advantage of the Cardinals’ run funnel defense. His 29.6 expected points were the highest of Week 13. The Packers aren’t a run funnel, but they are somewhat vulnerable on the ground; they rank 23rd in EPA allowed per rush and 14th in run defense grade. The Bears rank 23rd in pass rate over expected and are likely to go run-heavy this week for as long as they can get away with it. Montgomery looks like a volume-based RB2.
Packers Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 28
If the Packers played with any pace whatsoever, Aaron Rodgers could be looking at back-to-back MVP seasons. Rodgers ranks second in EPA per play and fifth in CPOE. But the Packers rank 27th in situation-neutral pace, severely limiting his passing volume this year. The Bears also play slow, ranking 24th in situation-neutral pace. So this game could be Seahawkian in its lack of play volume. This was the case in Week 6 when Rodgers managed only 195 yards against the Bears.
Rodgers should be very efficient on the dropbacks he does take this week. The Bears rank 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 19th in pass-rush grade, and 24th in coverage grade. Hopefully, the Bears can push him enough for that efficiency to lead to a big game for Davante Adams.
Adams has an elite 33% target share and 40% air yard share. As a result, he leads the NFL in WOPR. Adams also has an ultra-elite 2.81 YPRR. If Rodgers drops back a reasonable number of times, Adams can deliver a big week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 20.1 aDOT, which makes him an interesting option in this low-volume environment. Additionally, he has an impressive 17% target rate for his deep threat usage, making him a viable FLEX dart throw.
We’ll likely see Aaron Jones in a 60/40 split with A.J. Dillon following Green Bay’s bye. Although, they may split carries fairly evenly. Dillon has played very well this season, ranking RB13 in success/attempt, RB20 in elusive rating, and RB4 in YPRR. Jones ranks RB29 in success/attempt, RB31 in elusive rating, and RB27 in YPRR. Dillon’s weakness has been breakaway rushing, where he ranks just RB38. But Jones hasn’t been much better, ranking RB27. The exact split is up in the air, but the Packers are invested in Dillon, and I expect this will be a 1A/1B situation.
Rams at Cardinals, 8:15 PM Eastern, Monday
Rams Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 24.5
Matthew Stafford had a solid game against Jacksonville, finishing eighth in EPA per play. But Stafford wasn’t accurate, finishing 19th in CPOE. His accuracy has been a problem all season, and he now ranks fourth in EPA per play but just 21st in CPOE.
His accuracy could be a major issue, facing a Cardinals defense that ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback, fourth in pass-rush grade, and seventh in coverage grade. The Cardinals’ schedule has gotten slightly harder in recent weeks, yet their defense has improved. And the Cardinals have an interesting defense that ranks third in blitz rate but doesn’t allow big plays. Only the Bills are allowing 15+ yard passes at a lower rate.
Stafford has been great against the blitz this season. His 9.1 YPA is the sixth highest in the league. So he could hold up against the Cardinals just fine, as long as his accuracy isn’t a major problem.
Cooper Kupp ran a route on 100% of dropbacks in Week 13 and remains the engine of the Rams passing attack. He has an absurd 3.03 YPRR and a ridiculous 30% target rate. Stafford may struggle this week, but if the Cardinals can push the Rams, Kupp can see the volume needed to support an elite week.
Odell Beckham was battling a hip injury in Week 13 and ran a route on just 56% of dropbacks. He has a 23% target rate with the Rams, which is great for his 16.9 aDOT. With his route rate likely closer to 90% this week, he looks like a solid WR3 option.
Van Jefferson looks like a WR3/4. He ran a route on 90% of dropbacks in Week 13. His 1.54 YPRR is mediocre and trails Beckham, even though Beckham just joined the team. I prefer Beckham, but Jefferson is definitely in play.
Tyler Higbee is basically just a fill-in option at this point. He has a 0.98 YPRR and simply isn’t a reliable piece of the offense, despite an 86% route rate this season. He’s a true TD-or-bust option.
David Montgomery reminded us last week that the Cardinals are a run funnel. Opponents are averaging a -3% pass rate over expected against them and are shifting 1% to the run. But the Rams rank fourth in pass rate over expected and have been run-heavy in just one of 12 games this year.
Darrell Henderson should be back this week and will likely run ahead of Sony Michel. Michel was solid in Week 13, producing 22.1 PPR points on a massive 24.5 expected point workload. But the Rams have favored a one-back system all season, so Henderson looks like a mid-RB2 if he’s healthy.
Cardinals Implied Team Total (from PointsBet): 27
Kyler Murray finally returned in Week 13 and finished second in EPA per play on the week. He’s now third in EPA per play and first in CPOE. Murray is having an MVP-caliber season.
The Rams have a good pass defense that ranks 12th in EPA allowed per dropback, first in pass-rush grade, and 12th in coverage grade. But this game environment looks like one where the offenses should be pushing each other throughout the game. The Rams are first in situation-neutral pace, and the Cardinals are eighth, so there’s upside for quite a bit of play volume here.
Additional play volume would be highly welcome for the Cardinals because accurately predicting their target shares is challenging. With DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup, he tied with Zach Ertz for the team lead in routes, with Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore also tying with 62% route rates. Seeing Moore back in the mix is nice on one level: he’s a talented player who deserves playing time. But with A.J. Green maintaining a 71% route rate, Moore’s presence makes predicting the Cardinals’ wide receivers extremely difficult. Hopkins and Kirk are still my preferred options, but they’re more volatile than is ideal. Zach Ertz also looks like a very strong tight end play as a full-time player who continues to draw targets.
Chase Edmonds is likely to return this week, further complicating the target tree. Jame Conner ran a route on 76% of dropbacks in Week 13 and had a 13% target share. Edmonds is likely to take over most of that receiving work, with Conner reverting back to a TD-dependent, low-end RB2. Excluding Week 9 (which he exited with injury), Edmonds had a 60% snap share and 16% target share. He looks like a solid RB2 option as a bet on increased passing volume.
Sources
To write this article I relied on the following stats, metrics and grades.
- Implied Team Totals are calculated using the lines at PointsBet.
- Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play).
- Efficiency metric based on how much a play improved a team’s likelihood of scoring.
- I use this metric primarily for QB efficiency, but also for defensive efficiency.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All EPA/play referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from Ben Baldwin’s rbsdm.com
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- QB accuracy metric
- Data from rbsdm.com
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- I do this by setting win probability filter to between 10-90%.
- All CPOE referenced in this article has garbage time filtered out.
- Data from rbsdm.com
- QB accuracy metric
- Pass Rate over Expected
- Measures passing decisions against what would be expected given the game situation.
- Situation Neutral Pass Rate
- Measures pass rate on downs and in situations when a team truly has the choice to pass or run.
- Situation Neutral Seconds per Play
- Seconds between plays in neutral game script.
- Faster play generally means more plays, which provides more opportunity for fantasy scoring.
- Adjusted Line Yards
- Run blocking stat that has been correlated with elite fantasy running back seasons.
- Snaps and Snap Share
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Teams check in and out of runs with only one back on the field. Being on the field is critical.
- Data from Pro Football Focus, AddMoreFunds and RotoViz
- Probably the single most important stat for running back opportunity.
- Target Share and Air Yard share
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Data from Pro Football Focus and RotoViz
- The combination of these is called WOPR. Created by Josh Hermsmeyer, this metric scales from 0-1.
- Routes run per dropback
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Data from Pro Football Focus
- Snap share for receivers... since I’m not concerned with who is playing run-blocking snaps.
- Yards Per Route Run
- A YPRR of 1.8+ is good and anything 2+ is very good.
- This metric is particularly useful for young wide receivers whose role could grow as a result of strong play.
- It can also help identify truly elite wide receivers.
- It filters out in-game injuries and blowouts much better than target share does.
- Data from PFF
- Target per Route Run
- TPRR and Yards per Target combine to make up YPRR.
- TPRR is especially useful for tight ends.
- Some offenses and quarterbacks prioritize throwing to the tight end much more than others.
- Some tight ends are far better at getting open than others.
- TPRR is much more stable than YPT, so in small samples especially, I’d rather know who is drawing targets than what happened afterward.
- Expected Fantasy Points.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- I am referencing PFF’s metric unless otherwise stated.
- Both RotoViz and PFF have similar Expected Points metrics that adjust opportunity based on the context of each play.
- A number of other PFF stats including Time to Throw, Play Action Rate, Pressure Rate, Screen Passes and Defensive Grades.
