We want to know -- we need to know -- how defenses are being attacked.
Though it won’t translate perfectly from week to week, understanding which NFL defenses qualify as run funnels and which are pass funnels can and should change the way we create our daily fantasy lineups. Is a team’s stalwart run defense forcing opponents to the air at a remarkable rate? How about secondaries so dominant (or teams so bad) that opposing offenses are turning to the run more often than usual?
In this space, I’ll highlight which players may benefit from squaring off against a run funnel or pass funnel defense in a given week, along with run-back options on the opposing team.
Analyzing pass and run funnel defenses can often generate DFS stacking ideas, both team stacks and game stacks. I’ll highlight stacking plays -- for DFS tournament purposes -- where I see fit. I’ve found evaluating run and pass funnels is an excellent starting point for exploiting matchups and crafting correlated lineups. A tightly correlated DFS roster means you have to get less right, a welcoming prospect in a wildly difficult game.
I’m going to profile matchups against the NFL’s three or four most extreme pass funnel and run funnel defenses, highlighting which players could benefit from their team leaning into the pass or the ground game. I hope that provides some more thought material for you, a DFS thought leader.
Vikings (-4) vs. Giants
Vikings implied total: 26
Giants implied total: 22
In the friendly, room temperature confines of a dome -- every NFL team should have a dome -- the Giants and Vikings will have quite a bit of fantasy appeal during this weekend’s weather apocalypse. Certainly that will inflate rostership for at least some players in this matchup, but I think there are ways to get creative with stacking a game free from the elements.
This game’s total has risen by 2.5 points since Monday. Only Packers-Dolphins and Chiefs-Seahawks have higher Week 16 totals.
While New York is neither a pass funnel nor a run funnel, the G-people have been plain bad against the rush for the better part of two months. Only Green Bay has allowed a higher EPA per rush than the Giants since Week 6. Allowing the sixth highest rate of positive rushing plays this year, the Giants are as vulnerable as any team on the ground. That should make Dalvin Cook appealing both as a high-upside play and leverage against what will surely be high Justin Jefferson rostership (don’t call me Shirley, I know).
Though Cook has been inefficient for much of 2022, he has the fifth most rushing attempts headed into Week 16. His pass game involvement leaves much to be desired, but that might not matter against the Giants. New York opponents have gone run heavy whenever possible since October: Washington was 13 percent under their expected pass rate in Week 15 against the Giants; Dallas had a -11 percent PROE against New York in Week 12; Detroit, which had been pass heavy, had a 0 percent PROE against these Giants in Week 11. Cook, quietly, is in a great spot.
T.J. Hockensen can be thrown into a lineup with Cook, I think. His route rate remains as high as any tight end in the league and he has at least eight targets in five of his seven games as a Viking.
New York run-back options are mostly disgusting. You have Daniel Bellinger, who’s running almost every route in the Giants offense, and Richie James -- the team’s primary slot guy -- as low-cost game-stacking plays alongside Cook. Darius Slayton would be the normie run-back option even though he’s gone cold in the couple weeks. Slayton has accounted for 36 percent of the team’s air yards over the past seven games and the Vikings have allowed the third most long receptions this season. So that adds up pretty nicely.
Game Stack Ideas
Cook, Slayton
Cook, Daniel Jones, Slayton
Cook and Hockensen, Bellinger or James
Cowboys (-5) vs. Eagles
Cowboys implied total: 26.25
Eagles implied total: 21.25
If you’ve read this column through the season, you know what comes next. The Cowboys are the NFL’s most extreme run funnel. Please clap.
Probably that sets up well for Miles Sanders, who will have close to no rostership in Week 16 DFS tournaments after his disastrous Week 15 outing against the Bears that ended with a sideline tongue lashing from head coach Nick Sirianni. In Week 6 against the Cowboys, Sanders handled 18 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, the nimble Philadelphia offense posted a -17 percent pass rate over expected against the run-funnel Dallas defense. The Eagles ran the ball a whopping 38 times in their 26-17 victory.
Perhaps this changes with Jalen Hurts sidelined. I don’t think the Eagles will ditch their entire offensive philosophy -- attack defense’s weaknesses -- just because their starter is out. That should fuel volume for Sanders if he retains his primary back role in Week 16. That might be a Big If judging by Sirianni’s reaction to Sanders’ struggles against Chicago last week.
The Eagles are the tenth most extreme run funnel, and we know what Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys do against teams that can’t stop the run. They stubbornly establish it with their running backs duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Dallas’ -6 percent pass rate over expected ranks as the league’s fifth lowest; they are obsessed with beating teams on the ground in one of the most scared, backward offensive philosophies in recent NFL history. The Cowboys are lucky they have a bunch of good players because their coaching is unforgivably bad.
Over the past four weeks, with Pollard and Zeke both healthy, it’s Elliott who has a not-insignificant edge in expected fantasy points on the ground. Elliott has seen 56 percent of the backfield’s high value touches (receptions plus touches inside the ten yards line) over the past month. In Week 6 against the Eagles, Elliott had 81 yards and a score on 13 rushes while Pollard took 11 carries for 44 scoreless yards (and two catches for eight yards).
Elliott is a sneaky option against an Eagles defense allowing the third highest rushing success rate through 15 weeks. Pollard will likely have considerable rostership, making Zeke something of a leverage play.
Game Stack Ideas
Elliott, Sanders, DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown
Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Smith or Brown or Sanders
Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Packers
Dolphins implied total: 26.5
Packers implied total: 23
We have two things going for us here: Miami is a clearcut pass-funnel defense and Green Bay is among the league’s most extreme run funnels. There’s a third thing: The total on this game has risen by three points since Monday.
Green Bay opponents have consistently attacked the glaring weakness of the team’s defense. Only the Browns have allowed a higher rush EPA than the Packers in 2022, and only two teams have given up a higher rushing success rate. The problem, of course, is that the Dolphins love to establish the pass (all praise to our analytics nerd king, Mike McDaniel) and the backfield is split between Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson.
Wilson, after missing last week’s game with a hip injury, appears on track to play in Week 16. If he can’t suit up, Mostert would be a tremendous, reasonably priced option against a weak Packers rush defense. Wilson shouldn’t be dismissed for DFS tournament purposes though. He’s fourth in rush yards over expected per attempt this season and profiles as the sort of back who can get there without a massive workload. Wilson is by far the most efficient option in the Miami backfield: His 3.54 yards after contact per attempt dwarfs Mostert’s mark of 2.71.
This is what the teens are calling an “eruption spot” for Christian Watson. Tenth in yards per route run since his Week 10 breakout against Dallas, Watson has mouth-watering upside against a barely-there Miami secondary allowing the eighth highest EPA per drop back this year. Dolphins opponents for the past couple months have leaned heavily into the pass, in part because the Fins are halfway decent against the run. If the run-first Packers follow suit, Watson -- with 43 percent of the team’s air yards since Week 10 -- could go off and push Tua and company to keep their foot on the proverbial pedal.
That Watson saw a meager 14 percent of the Packers’ air yards upon Romeo Doubs’ Week 15 return to the lineup scares me a bit. I suppose that makes Doubs -- who led the Packers with a 28 percent air yards share against the Rams -- a far lower rostered run-back option alongside a Dolphins stack.
Game Stack Ideas
Tua, Tyreek Hill, Wilson, Watson
Wilson, Watson or Doubs
Aaron Rodgers, Watson or Doubs, Hill or Wilson
