In Week 3, Jay Ajayi was struggling to out-touch Isaiah Pead. In Week 7, he was putting his name alongside Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams and an infamous documentary subject. When Ajayi somewhat surprisingly started last week’s game over Arian Foster, he had 304 career rushing yards, 117 of which had come this season. Now he’s joined Campbell, Williams and O.J. Simpson as just the fourth player in NFL history with back-to-back 200-yard rushing efforts.
Ajayi has 418 yards the past two weeks, and the Nos. 1 and 2 rushing totals by any back this season. Ajayi has gone from a four-man rotation in Foster’s absence to being the league’s hottest rusher. In two stunning strokes, he’s answered the riddle of Miami’s post-Lamar Miller backfield. Even so, Ajayi’s emphatic rejoinder still comes with plenty of questions. Namely, how? How did a second-year back most famous for the bone-on-bone condition in his knee erupt for an offense that was so pathetic in Week 5 it generated 200 total yards against the Mike Mularkey-led Tennessee Titans?
Power, rhythm, a rejuvenated offensive line, and last but not least, coaching. We always knew Ajayi had some Marshawn Lynch to his game, but Sunday he was running over tacklers, most impressively on this 53-yard rumble. Ajayi created 10 missed tackles by Pro Football Focus’ count. No one else in the NFL had more than four on Sunday. Per the Palm Beach Post’s Joe Schad, Ajayi’s nine rushes of 10 yards or longer were the third most by anyone since 1960. Ajayi got hot because coach Adam Gase let him get rolling. “Jay’s a rhythm-type guy and I kept reminding myself to stay with him,” Gase said after the game. “That’s my biggest challenge is just staying with him.”
Gase accepted the challenge Sunday and was rewarded with another monster effort behind an offensive line that’s finally healthy, and loving the new-found ground commitment. “As many times as I can go forward instead backward, I’m cool with that,” RT Ja’Wuan James said. Now the Dolphins go on bye before returning against the Jets’ run-tough defense. 200 yards probably won’t be in the offing. What will be is faith in the league’s newest star. Ajayi is the centerpiece of the Dolphins’ formerly struggling offense, and an RB1 for fantasy owners who were ready to drop him two weeks ago.
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Five Week 7 Negatives
LeSean McCoy aggravating his hamstring injury. Pre-game reports on McCoy’s status were all over the map. The post-game reports were not. McCoy’s removal wasn’t a precaution, but a necessity after he felt new pain. It was the worst-possible outcome for the run-based Bills, who gambled with McCoy’s health much the same way they did Sammy Watkins’ last month. The results weren’t quite as disastrous — McCoy is going to play again this season, likely soon — but much more pointless. Whereas Watkins supposedly couldn’t make his injury worse, McCoy could and did. The setback also came in the midst of an extremely ineffective performance (eight carries for 11 yards), one that made it clear he should have never suited up in the first place. McCoy seems all but certain to miss next week’s game against the Pats, leaving Buffalo and fantasy owners in a lurch, and Mike Gillislee as a plug-and-play RB2.
Tavon Austin’s latest nightmare. The league’s most overpaid player, Austin remained mind-bogglingly inefficient, turning 15 targets into 10 catches for 57 yards. 5.7 yards per catch would be unacceptable for a running back. For a “No. 1 receiver” who got $30 million guaranteed two months ago? It’s simply inconceivable. Austin is eighth in the league in targets, but 70th in yards. He was the intended receiver on three of Case Keenum’s four interceptions against the Giants. Two weren’t his fault, but the third was an Austin bat the Giants housed for a pick six and the eventual difference in the game. Austin is a square peg that will never fit in coach Jeff Fisher’s round hole of an offense. Fantasy owners need to be doing better in their WR3 spot.
Allen Robinson’s milk carton lifestyle. We’ve gone from crisis to full-on nuclear meltdown. Robinson’s two catches for nine yards were his fewest since last Week 14, when he had a fluke 1/4/1 day in a 51-16 win over the Colts. Robinson is on pace for 789 yards after posing 1,400 last season. He’s scored in only 2-of-6 games, and yet to post more than 72 yards. Blake Bortles’ descent into oblivion is the main culprit, but when you secure fewer than half your targets (26-of-55), it’s not all the quarterback’s fault. The benefit of the doubt ended this week. It’s still important not to completely overreact, but Robinson is a mid-range WR2 until further notice.
Matt Jones’ fumble-itis. Jones put the ball on the ground three times against the Lions, creating a backfield with three runners. One of Jones’ fumbles was Kirk Cousins’ fault, and another was recovered. The third was essentially shoveled into the end zone for a Lions touchback, changing the game and potentially the season for Jones. Benched for one series, Jones returned to rotate touches with Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley. Thompson had a gangbusters day, finding the edge and getting open over the middle to create 113 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches. Jones, meanwhile, generated 27 on 10. Jones has run hot and cold all season, but might be running for his starting life against the Bengals in England.
The Vikings’ offensive line. Caved in on nearly every play, Minnesota’s front five got Sam Bradford sacked six times, and made running lanes hard to come by for Jerick McKinnon, who eventually injured his ankle. The dismal performance dropped the Vikes from the ranks of the unbeatens, and reminded of their extreme vulnerability up front. Coaches Mike Zimmer and Norv Turner are two of the league’s best. They’ll return to the drawing board and come back with something good, or at least something that doesn’t involve Jake Long “playing left tackle.” But no matter how good the coaching is, fantasy value is going to be hard to find in Minnesota beyond RB3 McKinnon, WR3 Stefon Diggs and top-eight TE Kyle Rudolph.
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Five Week 7 Positives
Spencer Ware stays hot against the Saints. With Jamaal Charles (knees) back in mothballs, Ware again had the Chiefs’ backfield all to himself, and took advantage with another 131 yards from scrimmage. Ware has 294 yards over his past two games, and 777 on the season, good for fifth in football. He’s averaging an elite 5.17 yards per carry, and truly ridiculous 19 yards per catch. His Sunday touchdown was a bullying 46-yarder through the air. Ware is now the Chiefs’ No. 1 back regardless of Charles’ health, and not just an RB1, but potential top-five RB1.
Matt Forte’s 34-touch day. Forte had gotten the ball just 24 total times over his past two games, and been averaging 14 over his past four games. With Geno Smith under center, the Jets predictably re-committed to their bell-cow, feeding him all day long, including after Smith departed with a knee injury. Forte out-snapped Bilal Powell 57-9, signaling a clear shift in philosophy after the Jets spent a month dabbling with a committee. The rub, of course, is that Forte still wasn’t that good against Baltimore’s elite run defense, generating only 100 yards on 30 carries (3.3 YPC), but helped save his day with four catches for 54 yards. Smith has already given way back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but expect another huge Forte workload against the hapless Browns in Week 8.
Jacquizz Rodgers proving his RB1 bonafides in good matchups. Coming off a 35-touch, 129-yard effort against the Panthers in Week 5, Quizz upped the ante to 27/163 against the pathetic 49ers. The monster day came against far and away the league’s worst defense, but taking advantage of good matchups is half the battle. Rodgers has another one for Week 8 in the Raiders, a Run D that’s both bottom five in yards per carry (5.0) and yards per game (128.3). You might wonder how Quizz Rodgers came back into your life, but you shouldn’t worry about him in your lineup.
Michael Thomas’ 10-catch day. The No. 47 overall pick of the draft, Thomas’ 10 catches for 130 were both career highs — including his time at Ohio State. Thomas has now led the Saints in targets three of the past four games, and is already 55.9 percent of the way (437) to his senior yardage total (781). A red-zone threat compiling for the league’s most pass-happy offense, Thomas is a legitimate WR3 working his way toward WR2 status. The sky is the limit in Dynasty leagues.
Golden Tate gettin’ cookin’. Coming off an 8/165/1 Week 6, Tate stayed hot with another 6/93. He has 22 targets over his past two games after entering Week 6 with 31 total. Tate has gone from bottoming out to leveling out. On the level is a good place to be considering the way Matthew Stafford is playing. Tate isn’t going to have “Calvin Johnson fill-in games” every week, but is back to being a dependable WR3 for a passing offense that’s really in rhythm.
Questions
1. Mathematically, at some point, we have to send a good game to London, right?
2. Jeff Fisher the most ill-advised American export since?
3. What game could have possibly been more deserving of a tie?
Early Waiver Look (Players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Alex Smith (@IND), Ryan Fitzpatrick (@CLE)
RB: Chris Thompson, Matt Asiata, Devontae Booker, Ka’Deem Carey, Paul Perkins
WR: Davante Adams, Corey Coleman, Brandon LaFell, Marqise Lee
TE: Vernon Davis, Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, C.J. Fiedorowicz
DEF: Titans (vs. JAX), Jets (@CLE), Lions (@HOU)
Stats of the Week
Carson Palmer has two touchdowns since Week 2 (four games). Going back to last season, he has 19 scores over his past 14 starts.
David Johnson had 41 touches in last night’s tie. It was the most times anyone has seen the ball since DeMarco Murray in Week 14, 2014.
15. That’s how many snaps Tyler Eifert played in his return. That number will go up significantly in Week 8, but he’ll still be just a back-end TE1 as he gets back into shape.
Two. That’s how many knee MRIs Jamaal Charles underwent last week. It’s shaping up as a lost season for the future Hall-of-Famer.
Three. That’s how many touchdowns Zach Ertz has over his past 23 games. Yikes.
14. That’s how many snaps Tevin Coleman played before tweaking his hamstring. He’s looking very doubtful for Week 8.
Tyrell Williams’ 10 receptions of 20-plus yards are tied for sixth. He’s putting himself on the WR2 radar.
Via Field Yates: Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 200 yards in 46 straight games, an NFL record.
Awards Section
Week 7 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Drew Brees, RB Jay Ajayi, RB Melvin Gordon, WR Davante Adams, WR Julio Jones, WR A.J. Green, TE Rob Gronkowski
The Most Woke or Least Woke Quote of All Time, via Ryan Fitzpatrick: “When the owner stops believing in you and the GM stops believing in you and coaches stop believing in you, sometimes all you have is yourself.”
Most Absurd Moment of Week 7: Any field goal attempt from Cardinals/Seahawks.
