There is no offseason … except for the longest offseason in North American sports. February-August can be a lonely time for football fanatics. That’s why when we get to talking about something, sometimes we just can’t stop. Offseason storylines are well-worn grooves in the couch by the time Week 1 finally arrives.
One such fixation for 2018 was Patrick Mahomes and his expected level of play — good. We talked about Mahomes’ aggressive mindset and big arm. We reminded of the fact that one of the league’s brightest offensive minds in Andy Reid traded up for Mahomes in the draft. We marveled as the Chiefs added Sammy Watkins to complement Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, giving Mahomes the top trio of downfield threats in the game. We salivated at what it all might mean in fantasy football.
Sunday, narrative met reality — good. Facing a Chargers Defense that allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, Mahomes went bonkers, generating 256 yards (9.48 YPA) and four touchdowns on only 27 attempts. As we hoped, Mahomes rained big plays, connecting with Hill for gains of 58, 30, 20, 21 and 34 yards. He found fullback Anthony Sherman for a 36-yard score down the left sideline, delivering a perfect dime just beyond a leaping LB Kyle Emanuel’s reach.
It wasn’t just Mahomes’ passing that turned heads. He also made noise as a runner, taking the ball five times for 21 additional yards. Mahomes ran both a traditional option play and read option. The Chiefs gave the Chargers — and by extension the entire NFL — every possible look, signaling just how difficult it is going to be to defense their sophomore quarterback. It was what fantasy owners hoped and expected to see. With the caveat that there will be inevitable growing pains, Mahomes is looking every bit like the QB1 we wanted him to become.
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Five Week 1 Storylines
Aaron Rodgers’ Paul Pierce moment in Green Bay. The guard seemed to be changing in real time. The Bears were already bullying the Packers before Rodgers got his leg crunched under impact addition Khalil Mack. When Rodgers then struggled to the sideline before being carted to the locker room, you could feel it in the air. One era was ending as another began. It turned out to be a brief crosswind. Like Lazarus, Rodgers rose for the third quarter. Like himself, he made the Bears suffer through 30 minutes of incomparable second half football. Playing on one leg, Rodgers dismantled his longtime foil, tossing scores of 39, 12 and 75 yards — each to a different receiver — as the Pack stormed back and re-established the ancient order. It was vintage Rodgers and vintage Bears. It was also a lucky escape. Rodgers will be hard pressed to repeat the feat against the Vikings’ foreboding defense in Week 2. Of course, as he once again proved on Sunday night, Rodgers does things no other football player can.
Football’s ultimate warrior, Delanie Walker, suffers season-ending ankle injury. Name a body part. Walker has played through an injury to it. That’s not going to be possible with his fractured and dislocated ankle. Walker’s next snap will come in 2019, when he will be 35. Thankfully for Walker, the injury comes after he signed a two-year, $17 million extension in July. There is less to soften the blow for the Titans, who must now confront what was supposed to be a “next step” 2018 with an uncertain receiver corps and struggling quarterback. As for the tight end position, the next man up does offer promise. The No. 100 overall pick of last year’s draft, Jonnu Smith is a freak athlete who turned 30 rookie targets into 18/157/2. He starts out as a TE2 streamer with the potential for more.
Another year, another injury for Marcus Mariota. As for Walker’s quarterback, it was the same old story against the Dolphins. Mariota struggled before picking up yet another ailment. Mariota’s elbow issue is consider minor, but it will once again require him to play at less than 100 percent. That’s a situation Mariota has always struggled in. Mariota is at a crossroads. Is this who he is as an NFL player? Or is there still something more to be tapped into? We could have a definitive answer after the Titans run the defensive gauntlet of Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia over the next three weeks.
Deshaun Watson struggles mightily in first post-ACL start. Watson had his worst start since his first start, completing just 17-of-34 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown while tossing an interception and losing a fumble. The latter happened on the game’s first play. Watson tried to keep it on a read option as Lamar Miller thought the ball was his. The result was a gaffe that set the tone for the entire afternoon. Watson’s pick was an aimless deep ball that functioned as an arm punt into the end zone. As Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo pointed out, it was the kind of play that probably would have gone Watson’s way during his charmed rookie year. There was no one overly concerning of Watson’s aspect day. There also weren’t any positives. Watson’s Week 2 bounce-back odds against the walking-wounded Titans will be increased if Will Fuller (hamstring) can get cleared.
Greg Olsen suffers another foot injury. It took Olsen 16 snaps to re-break his right foot, threatening both his season and his career. The devastating setback comes after a summer where Olsen appeared “back,” and a career where he once went nine straight seasons without missing a game. It puts the Panthers back to square one as they look to find someone, anyone for Cam Newton to throw to beyond Devin Funchess. One answer could be rookie TE Ian Thomas. The No. 101 overall pick of the draft, Thomas had a strong summer after a late-career breakout in the Big 10. An exceptional athlete, Thomas is worth a TE2 flier for any Olsen owners left in a lurch in deeper leagues.
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Five More Week 1 Storylines
Leonard Fournette immediately injures hamstring. Coming off a rookie season marred by ankle issues, Fournette was supposed to be newly fresh and durable after shedding roughly 15 pounds. Fournette reduced the weight on his joints but evidently made himself more susceptible to soft-tissue ailments. Speaking after the Jags’ win over the Giants, coach Doug Marrone said he was “pretty optimistic” about his lead back, but fantasy owners can’t be so sanguine. Fournette’s health was a weekly mystery after he first went down last season, one Marrone happily stoked. If Fournette can’t go against the Patriots, T.J. Yeldon and Corey Grant will form a committee. Yeldon will provide the touch floor, Grant the big-play upside.
Doug Baldwin sprains his other knee. Baldwin entered Week 1 with a balky left knee, an issue he said would not improve in 2018. He exited it with a right MCL sprain, a potentially multi-week issue that’s going to severely curb Baldwin’s ceiling and bottom out his floor. A 30-year-old receiver gutting out two bad knees has the potential to get ugly in a hurry. Headed on the road against Khalil Mack and the Bears, the Seahawks are going to be in a world of receiver trouble if Baldwin sits, as is looking likely. Some combination of big-play threat Tyler Lockett, late-career singles hitter Brandon Marshall and unknown rookie TE Will Dissly are going to have to make plays. If it wasn’t there already, Russell Wilson’s margin for error has reached zero behind the Seahawks’ putrid offensive line.
James Conner picks up Le’Veon Bell’s slack. Conner slid seamlessly into Bell’s three-down role, playing an eye-popping 77-of-84 snaps while handling a monstrous 36 touches. He turned them into a Le’Veon-esque two touchdowns and 192 yards from scrimmage. Neither the Steelers nor fantasy owners could have asked for more. With Bell’s saga having no end in sight, Conner will upgrade from fill-in RB2 to fill-in RB1 if Bell once again fails to report this week. Even if Bell does show up, Conner will remain on the radar as an RB2/FLEX. Bell has missed more time than he did in 2017, and the Steelers are not going to be dying to immediately plug him into his usual role considering how acrimonious things have become and just how good Conner was against the Browns.
Phillip Dorsett leads Patriots’ receiver corps. Dorsett caught a career-high seven passes while scoring just his fourth touchdown in 42 games. Dorsett was all over the field, playing 57-of-75 snaps while running a variety of routes. Long thought of a big-play only receiver, Dorsett’s four-yard score came on a red zone post route. There’s a reason why Dorsett is just now catching seven passes for the first time: He’s just not that good. But he might be good enough to make hay with one of the best players in league history as the Patriots wait for Julian Edelman to come off suspension. If Dorsett stays hot in Week 2, he will have earned it against the Jaguars’ elite defense.
Bills’ quarterback situation immediately implodes. The Bills wanted to hide Josh Allen after he predictably appeared not ready for primetime during the preseason. Nathan Peterman wouldn’t let them, bookending last year’s legendary five-interceptions-in-one-half performance with a start so bad that it was hard to feel anything other than pity. Peterman completed 5-of-18 passes for 24 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions as he “led” the Bills to zero first half points or first downs. Both of his picks were essentially hand-delivered to the ever-ravenous Ravens. As was the case in Los Angeles last season, chastened coach Sean McDermott had no choice but to go to someone else. Allen was awful in Peterman’s place but not meme-worthy. That could change in Week 2, when he gets the same Chargers Defense that unmasked Peterman last year. 2018 threatens to be the longest season in Buffalo.
Questions
1. What exactly would it take for Nathan Peterman to convince Sean McDermott he’s not a good quarterback?
2. What percentage of Philip Rivers’ career passing yardage has come down two scores in the fourth quarter?
3. What could Jon Gruden have been thinking watching Khalil Mack in the first half against the Packers?
Early Waiver Look (Players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Eli Manning (@DAL), Tyrod Taylor (@NO), Ryan Tannehill (@NYJ), Blake Bortles (vs. NE)
RB: Phillip Lindsay, T.J. Yeldon, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, James White, Corey Grant, Kenneth Dixon
WR: Chris Godwin, Geronimo Allison, John Brown, Dede Westbrook, Quincy Enunwa, Ryan Grant, Rishard Matthews, Brandon Marshall
TE: Ricky Seals-Jones, Ben Watson, Will Dissly, Ian Thomas
DEF: Bengals (vs. BAL), Bears (vs. SEA)
Stats of the Week
George Kittle finished with 90 yards, but Rotoworld’s Nick Mensio believes he could have pushed 200. Kittle dropped an 80-yard score, was overshot on another deep ball and missed on a four-yard touchdown. Frustrating, but also quite promising heading forward.
Khalil Mack became the first player since Khalil Mack in 2016 to tally a sack, interception, forced fumble, fumble recovery and defensive score in a game. How do you sleep at night, Jon?
Despite claims he would be on a snap count, Josh Gordon was on the field for a whopping 69-of-89 plays. His target count of three figures to at least triple in Week 2.
Michael Thomas’ 16-reception performance against the Bucs was just the 14th in NFL history.
Handling 92 percent of the Bengals’ running back touches as he out-touched Giovani Bernard 22-2, Joe Mixon piled up 149 yards from scrimmage. The leap looks to be happening.
Awards Section
Week 1 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB James Conner, RB Alvin Kamara, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Michael Thomas, WR Julio Jones, TE Rob Gronkowski
The I Hate When That Happens Award: The Browns accidentally starting Josh Gordon after weeks of saying they would not be starting Josh Gordon.
Fastest-Aging Team-Produced Content Award: The Bills’ seizure-inducing EDM ode to Nathan Peterman.
Best Week 1 Cameo: DeShone Kizer checking in to throw a pick six against the Bears.
Best Butt Fumble For The Analytic Age: Mitchell Trubisky in the first half against the Packers.
The It Could Have Gone Better Award: Mike Vrabel’s coaching debut featuring injuries to his quarterback, left tackle and No. 1 passing option.
Tweet of the Week, from ESPN’s Dan Graziano: Good thing the Packers didn’t trade the guy who wanted a big new contract!
