If Matt Ryan was a gamble, Jonathan Taylor was supposed to be the sure thing. Even if Ryan proved decrepit coming off his uninspiring 2021, Taylor would keep riding the Colts’ road-grading offensive line to long runs and huge days.
The formula almost worked in Week 1, where Ryan stunk up the joint but Taylor tagged the Texans for 161 yards rushing in 70 minutes of play. It turned out to be only the beginning for both. For Ryan, his struggles. For Taylor, his frustrations. Each reached their nadir in Sunday’s loss to the Titans, where Ryan’s play had Colts fans questioning whether they still liked football and Taylor saw his third straight quiet afternoon ended by an ankle injury.
Ankle injuries do not end seasons, but they frequently end seasons as we know it. Timelines drift, aggravations are inevitable. In a best-case scenario, Taylor misses no time and suits up for Thursday evening’s short-week tilt with the Broncos. In a worst, his practice status is in limbo for weeks and he misses multiple contests after his supposedly minor issue is revealed to be a high-ankle sprain after all.
Even if Taylor successfully surmounts his ankle issues, Ryan could remain a bigger obstacle. Ryan can’t move, so he can’t threaten defenses. Since he can’t threaten defenses, they camp out on Taylor. Since they camp out on Taylor, you wish you had just taken a receiver at No. 1 overall. That’s not fun, but it is fantasy football.
Five Week 4 Storylines
Steelers finally order the code red, make the switch to Kenny Pickett. Even Mike Tomlin, a man who has never met a punt he didn’t like or three points he wouldn’t take, had seen enough. The breaking point was Mitch Trubisky completing just seven passes in one half against a Jets defense that entered the proceedings as one of the worst units in the league. The band-aid needed to be ripped off, though Pickett immediately started bleeding. His three interceptions in two quarters of play were more than Trubisky has thrown all season. Pickett did manage to complete all 10 of his other attempts and add a pair of rushing touchdowns. He helped spark George Pickens to a 100-yard outing. Tomlin wouldn’t fully commit to the change after the game, but it is going to happen heading into a contest with the mighty Bills. The Steelers will have little chance with Pickett. That is better than the “no chance” they would have with Trubisky.
George Pickens follows up Week 3 circus catch with first 100-yard effort. Of Pickens’ 6/102 in production, 4/71 of it came with Kenny Pickett under center. That is nearly twice what he managed in any one game with Mitch Trubisky. Pickett isn’t going to be a cure-all for the Steelers’ passing woes, but he should at least be more aggressive than Trubisky, who is amongst the most predictable turtlers in the game. The duo also represents a blank slate for a coaching staff clearly tired of Chase Claypool and potentially exasperated with Diontae Johnson‘s drops. It was a Johnson muff that led to Trubisky’s interception against the Jets. Having now added a spiked week to his growing highlight reel, Pickens could be beginning his inexorable march to WR3 value. The Bills are a daunting Week 5 test.
Javonte Williams suffers serious season-ending knee injury in Las Vegas. In the most disappointing story of Week 4, Williams was loaded onto a cart and taken to the locker room in the third quarter. Frustrating though Williams’ season had been so far, he seemed to be finding his way to fantasy points. Sunday was shaping up as his third straight 15-carry performance, while Melvin Gordon continues to have ball security issues. Now Gordon will slide into a more traditional No. 1 role, with Mike Boone changing the pace. Only 22 years old, Williams has plenty of time to return to 100 percent health for Week 1 2023, but the same was true of J.K. Dobbins this season. Despite the perception to the contrary, knee recoveries cannot be taken for granted.
Commanders continue to move away from Antonio Gibson. The 16 touches do not pop off the page as alarming. It’s the five touches that do. That is how many times “Jonathan Williams” handled the ball one week ahead of Brian Robinson‘s expected activation from injured reserve. Robinson missed four games, and Gibson did not exceed 14 carries in any of them. He caught more than three passes once. His snap rate plummeted to 41 percent against the Cowboys. It is possible it was game script related in Dallas, but can you really be an RB2 if askew game scripts knock you believe 50 percent of the snaps? Gibson’s immediate fantasy future is looking bleak. Robinson, meanwhile, is worth a speculative add in all formats.
Breece Hall takes command of the Jets’ backfield. Hall out-carried Michael Carter 17-9, out-targeted him 6-3 and out-snapped him 46-31. Beyond the obvious reasons, this was encouraging because it not only came in a close contest, but one where the Jets were finally forced to unveil their “real” — seemingly more run-focused — offense with regular starter Zach Wilson at the controls instead of Joe Flacco. Whereas Ken Walker is not making headway in Seattle, Hall is gaining momentum on a weekly basis. We might finally be witnessing the birth of a new RB2, though Week 5 opponent Miami has been somewhat stingy on the ground.
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Five More Week 4 Storylines
Rachaad White out-touches Leonard Fournette as Bucs abandon the run. Fournette still out-snapped White 39-24 and managed to score a receiving touchdown, but it was White who converted a goal-line handle on the ground. White was given several series to himself, even after his lost fumble on the opening kickoff set up a Chiefs touchdown. The Bucs talked about getting White more involved during the week, and it was much more than just lip service. With Fournette’s already limited explosiveness seeming to decline further this year, this might not be a one-off. The injured Bucs need more play-making ability, and White has it. Scoop him up wherever he is available.
Gabe Davis looks nowhere close to healthy, Isaiah McKenzie suffers concussion, Jamison Crowder breaks his ankle. It was an “other than that Mrs. Lincoln?” day in the Bills’ receiver corps. Crowder’s year could be through, while we doubt the Bills will be rushing the pint-sized McKenzie back, especially against the backdrop of the Tua Tagovailoa concussion drama. That leaves Davis and a leg that seems roughly 60-70 percent healthy. It is a dire enough situation that the Bills could need to look to the trade or free agent wires for help. At the very least, we hope they keep Davis off his feet in practice this week so he can do some semblance of healing. Even with the injuries around him, Davis is not looking healthy enough to provide WR2 value at the moment, and even WR3 could be a stretch. All the injuries could create an opening for Dawson Knox to finally do some compiling after he drew a season-high six targets in Week 4.
Geno Smith has best day of his career in Detroit. Smith got off to strong starts in Weeks 1 and 3 only to disappear in the second half. He finally played a full 60 minutes against the Lions and the result was the second most fantasy points of any Week 4 quarterback. The 320 yards were the fourth most of his career, and second highest total since 2014 (with the highest coming in Week 3). He is out-pointing Russell Wilson. Popping in both conventional and more advanced metrics, Smith is playing by far his best football as he executes Seattle’s simple-but-effective offense. The result, of course, has still been two narrow victories over seemingly bad teams and losses to the Falcons and 49ers. The schedule stiffens for a Week 5 road date in New Orleans before again relenting in the Cardinals. Consider me skeptical Smith can actually keep this up, but he deserves recognition with nearly a quarter of the season in the books.
Panthers’ offense bottoms out in horrid loss to Cardinals. Just how bad has this offense been? D.J. Moore‘s six receptions for 50 yards against Arizona were both easily new season highs. It was a miracle Moore stacked even that much production, as Baker Mayfield saw a ludicrous five passes batted at the line of scrimmage as he tossed two interceptions and averaged 5.5 yards per attempt. Yet to exceed one score in any one start, Mayfield is converting only 54.7 percent of his throws and has completed more than 16 passes once. The sole silver lining Sunday was his 9/81/1 connection with Christian McCaffrey, whom he had inexplicably found just 10 times in three games before Week 4. Mayfield has been bad enough that coach Matt Rhule could be desperate enough to take another ride on the Sam Darnold merry-go-round once the quarterback returns from his ankle injury. He is eligible to come off injured reserve this week but evidently will not do so.
Josh Jacobs finally shows signs of life in Vegas’ backfield. With none of Josh McDaniels’ various teacher’s pets — Brandon Bolden, Zamir White — applying pressure, Jacobs went out and had himself a game. His 28 carries tied for the second most of his career while his 144 yards rushing were a new personal best. He caught a solid five balls for 31 yards and played more than 80 percent of the snaps for just the second time since entering the NFL. McDaniels spent his summer advertising that he wanted a Patriots-style committee, but he is mercifully adjusting after his ancillary backs did not step up. At least until he picks up his next lingering injury, Jacobs could ascend up the RB2 ranks.
Questions
1. Did Todd Bowles drop Leonard Fournette in fantasy?
2. Who allowed Skyy Moore to wear No. 24?
3. If Kliff Kingsbury is the fakest sharp in the NFL, what does that make Josh McDaniels and Matt Rhule, who have both lost to him?
Early Waivers Look (Players rostered in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Jameis Winston (vs. SEA), Ryan Tannehill (@WAS), Geno Smith (@NO), Zach Wilson (vs. MIA), Kenny Pickett (@BUF)
RB: Rachaad White, Raheem Mostert, Tyler Allgeier, Brian Robinson, Isiah Pacheco, Mike Boone, Caleb Huntley, Sony Michel, Eno Benjamin
WR: Michael Gallup, George Pickens, Nico Collins, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney, Alec Pierce, Rondale Moore, Jameson Williams
TE: Tyler Conklin, Logan Thomas, Taysom Hill, Evan Engram, Will Dissly, Mo Alie-Cox, Daniel Bellinger
DEF: Dolphins (@NYJ), Vikings (vs. CHI), Jaguars (vs. HOU), Titans (@WAS), Patriots (vs. DET), Chiefs (vs. LV), Lions (@NE)
Stats of the Week
Four. That’s the minimum number of weeks Cordarrelle Patterson will miss after landing on injured reserve with a knee issue. Tyler Allgeier had been looking like the next man up, but Caleb Huntley received as many Week 4 carries. With the Falcons going ultra run-heavy, both backs are worth an immediate add off the waiver wire. Damien Williams (ribs) is eligible to return in Week 5.
Via John Daigle: Kyle Pitts is averaging 6.2 PPR points. “Tight end” Taysom Hill is averaging … 7.4 PPR points per game. Pitts was out-snapped by someone named “Parker Hesse” in Week 4. He still commanded a 24 percent target share, but that does not mean a whole lot when Marcus Mariota is attempting 19 passes.
Week 5’s Packers/Giants contest will be the first time in 32 tries the NFL has sent two teams with winning records to London. The 3-1 Giants, of course, have no healthy receivers and injuries to their Nos. 1 and 2 quarterbacks.
After all that, Adam Levitan points out that Austin Ekeler is on pace to catch 115 passes, which is just one shy of Christian McCaffrey‘s NFL record.
0. The number of running back carries by Texans not named Dameon Pierce.
Awards Section
Week 4 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Jared Goff, RB Austin Ekeler, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Justin Jefferson, WR Mike Evans, WR Tyreek Hill, TE T.J. Hockenson
Tweet of the Week, from Dan Hanzus: If it’s a Sunday, there must be a new reel of Baker passes being knocked down at the line of scrimmage.
Arizona Cardinals Tweet of the Week: After what seemed like an eternity of bad football the Cards take a 13-10 lead on a 39-yard field goal.
Just A Normal Football Thing Award: Eno Benjamin handling two kickoffs for the Cardinals.
The You Get What You Pay For Award: Dennis Allen ordering two 60-plus yard field goal attempts in one game.
The Just Assuming Award: That Kirk Cousins has the all-time record for intentional grounding penalties.
The What is This, the Divisional Round? Award: Aaron Rodgers almost losing at home to Bailey Zappe.