You high-stepped past your league mates all season with the living, breathing fantasy cheat code that is Jalen Hurts. You pranced. You danced. You were intolerable.
You were Deion Sanders gliding into the end zone for another kick return score or a pick for a touchdown. Can’t catch me, you teased. You can try. But you can’t.
Hurts got you here, all the way to fantasy semifinal week, covering the weak spots of your roster with scoring outbursts throughout the season, functioning both as a high-level passer with the NFL’s most potent wideout duo and as the league’s most effective red zone rusher. Fifty-four rushing yards per game and 13 rushing scores is a hell of a thing for a fantasy quarterback.
Now, with Hurts’ shoulder sprain, you’re an emotional wreck. He’s likely out for Week 16 against Dallas. Your tried-and-true formula -- plugging fantasy’s most potent weapon into your QB spot -- is no longer an option. The fantasy gods, after smiling on you for three and a half months, are now frowning. Everything is dark.
This is your chance though. A chance for what, you ask? A chance to piece together a winning roster with bubble gum and duct tape and old-fashioned moxy, the way fantasy managers who did not draft an elite quarterback have done all year. So sit up straight, wipe those tears from your bloodshot eyes, and grind the waiver wire like you’ve never grinded before.
Win a championship without Hurts and become a hero forever. Or at least for a few weeks. Or maybe 72 hours. Or just for one day.
Let’s get into Week 16 waiver priorities.
| Priority | Player | Team | Position | Rostership % |
| 1. | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 37% |
| 2. | Zack Moss | IND | RB | 0% |
| 3. | Marquise Goodwin | SEA | WR | 3% |
| 4. | Chris Moore | HOU | WR | 19% |
| 5. | Khalil Herbert | CHI | RB | 39% |
| 6. | Jahan Dotson | WAS | WR | 17% |
| 7. | Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 29% |
| 8. | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 21% |
| 9. | Royce Freeman | HOU | RB | 0% |
| 10. | Gardner Minshew | PHI | QB | 0% |
Quarterback
Brock Purdy (SF)
Rostership: 21 percent
Surrounded by capable pass catchers and conducting a well-orchestrated offense in which the quarterback does not matter, Purdy has put up solid fantasy numbers each of the past two weeks. The rookie had nearly 22 points in Week 14 and 16.5 points in Week 15, ranking fifth in adjusted EPA per drop back over that stretch.
This week Purdy and the Niners face a Washington defense that has been a bit more vulnerable of late thanks to some key injuries. The Commanders have slipped in EPA allowed per drop over the past couple games; they could be primed to be ripped by a hyper-efficient 49ers offense. Purdy is a sturdy floor play.
Gardner Minshew (PHI)
Rostership: 0 percent
Minshew will take over for at least one week while Jalen Hurts deals with his shoulder injury, which has surely ruined your life or the life of someone you know. Minshew in his two 2021 starts was a perfectly fine caretaker of the Philadelphia offense. He completed 68 percent of his throws at 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt, tossing four touchdowns and one pick. Minshew should keep A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith afloat.
The Cowboys being the league’s most extreme run funnel defense, we could see a heavy dose of Miles Sanders and the Eagles run game in Week 16. Perhaps that squashes any ceiling Minshew might have here. Or maybe not. Quarterbacks have fared well against a beatable Dallas secondary when their offensive line has slowed Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ front four. The Eagles notably have the league’s best pass-blocking offensive line, per Pro Football Focus.
With the league’s premiere wideout tandem and all-pro tight end Dallas Goedert returning to the lineup, I think Minshew should be fine as a 12-team streaming option and a must-get for superflex managers seeking a QB2 for Week 16.
Other quarterbacks to roster
Zach Wilson (7 percent): The time has come to betray my most closely held beliefs and recommend Zach Wilson as a viable Week 16 streamer. I don’t even know myself anymore. Here’s the thing though: Jacksonville is bad -- really bad -- against the pass. Only five teams allow a higher EPA per drop back and only eight teams give up a higher rate of positive pass plays. Fresh off throwing for 317 yards and two touchdowns against a similarly awful Detroit coverage unit, Wilson is very much in play as an upside swing.
Jordan Love (2 percent): If the Packers’ season circles the drain and their playoff hopes are dashed, Love could end up with a late-season start or two. He was spectacular last month against the Eagles. Stash him in superflex leagues.
Trace McSorley (0 percent): McSorley will likely start in Week 16 after Colt McCoy suffered a brain injury in Week 15’s loss to Denver. McSorley is a live human playing quarterback, so he should be rostered in superflex formats.
Running Back
Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
Rostership: 37 percent
I mentioned twice last month that every Atlanta running back had posted impressive peripheral numbers behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus grades as the NFL’s top run-blocking unit. That, of course, included the big-bodied rookie, Allgeier, who in Week 15 against the Saints took advantage of an injury to Caleb Huntley and rumbled for 139 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Through Week 15, only six running backs have a higher yards per carry over expected than Allgeier (Huntley is one of them).
Huntley is probably done for the season with an ankle issue, freeing up enough snaps and rushes to make Allgeier an intriguing borderline RB1 as the lead back in a Falcons offense that passes less frequently than the 1943 Bears (look it up, nerd). We’ve waited all year for this backfield to concentrate its snaps and touches. Take the green zone as an example: Inside the ten yard line this season, Huntley and Allgeier, and Marcus Mariota have all seen eight rushes while Cordarrelle Patterson has had nine. In Week 15 against New Orleans, Patterson and Allgeier each had two goal line attempts.
Eliminate Mariota and Huntley from the equation and you have a path -- however narrow -- to touchdown-based upside for the remaining Falcons backs.
The Falcons on the season are 14 percent below their expected pass rate; only Chicago is more run heavy. They run no matter what. Allgeier could lose some carries to Patterson -- who has 14 rushes to 17 for Allgeier against the Saints -- and passing game work and still get upwards of 20 touches a game. Trying desperately to hide rookie QB Desmond Ridder, who was 16 percent below his expected completion rate in Week 15, Arthur Smith and the Falcons will undoubtedly continue to establish it over the season’s final three weeks.
Zack Moss (IND)
Rostership: 2 percent
Jonathan Taylor‘s season-ending calf injury could be the most impactful development of the fantasy playoffs, even if it’s tough to discern exactly who will see most of the Colts backfield work in the next two weeks.
If Week 15 usage means anything -- and it might not -- Moss is the clearcut favorite to lead the Taylor-less Colts backfield. He played 67.6 percent of the team’s snaps in Taylor’s place against the Vikings and saw 24 carries while running more pass routes than backfield mate Deon Jackson. That Jackson was better -- he had a higher yards per carry and yards over expected per carry than Moss -- probably won’t matter on a team with a make-believe head coach. If Jeff Saturday prefers Moss, that’s all that matters.
Whoever gets the lead back gig for Indy has a schedule sweeter than those horrible little Christmas candies your grandma keeps on her coffee table. The Colts take on the Chargers (fourth highest EPA per rush) in Week 16 and the Giants (third highest EPA per rush) in Week 17. The main concern for Moss is that Jackson emerges as the team’s primary pass catching back. That would lop off a whole bunch of PPR upside for Moss.
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
Rostership: 39 percent
Herbert, leading the league in yards per carry over expected, is coming off injured reserve this week. Apparently recovered from a November hip injury, Herbert could (should?) resume his role as the 1B to David Montgomery‘s 1A. Herbert would be a must-start in fantasy championship week if Montgomery were to pick up an injury in Week 16.
Royce Freeman (HOU)
Rostership: 0 percent
Freeman was activated from the Houston practice squad and, naturally, led the team with 11 rushes for 51 yards against the Chiefs. He caught his lone target for five yards.
But it was Dare Ogunbowale who led Houston in backfield snaps and pass routes, while carrying the ball eight times against KC. Rex Burkhead, meanwhile, did not have a carry on just nine snaps. Freeman is a (very) thin fantasy option who might stumble into a touchdown as the Texans’ preferred short-yardage option. Against Kansas City, Freeman led the Houston backfield in goal line and short yardage snaps. In the bleak midwinter, things of that nature.
Other running backs to roster
Jaylen Warren (17 percent): Warren had 11 carries for 38 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers on Sunday and continues eating into Najee Harris’ snaps. Mostly a contingency option in case Harris gets dinged up in the next couple weeks, Warren should be stashed if you have the room.
Deon Jackson (7 percent): With a 10-catch performance on his resume this season, Jackson is a capable pass catcher who could -- maybe -- be interesting in PPR formats if he inherits the entire route-running role in the post-Taylor Indianapolis backfield. Jackson’s upside would lie in a Zack Moss injury or benching (Moss is not good).
Pierre Strong (16 percent): Rhamondre Stevenson played through his ankle injury in Week 15 and seemed just fine, per the box score. Strong was second in backfield snaps and routes against the Raiders, though Kevin Harris saw one more carry. Strong, an explosive athlete and an analytics darling, could have considerable value if Stevenson’s ankle issue flares up.
Marlon Mack (6 percent): It’s still Latavius Murray‘s backfield in Denver but Mack would be next week if Murray were to miss Week 17. Mack had five carries and four targets (including a short TD) on 11 routes in Week 15’s win against Arizona. He’s a sensible stash in deep leagues.
Boston Scott (2 percent): Scott could get a full-blown starter’s workload in Week 17 if the Eagles have nothing (or very little) to play for. Get him before your league mates think of Philly’s late-season machinations.
Keaontay Ingram (1 percent): Arizona has been mercifully eliminated from the postseason, opening up the possibility that starters will rest at some point over the next three weeks. Ingram would fill in for James Conner in such a scenario.
Patrick Taylor (0 percent): Green Bay’s RB3 could see some late-season run if AJ Dillon misses any time with the brain injury he suffered in Monday night’s win against LA. Taylor saw four carries in the fourth quarter against the Rams. He’s not a bad deep bench stash this week.
JaMycal Hasty (6 percent): Hasty is seemingly in line for lead back duties if anything were to befall Travis Etienne in the fantasy season’s last two weeks. He’s purely a contingency pick up.
Wide Receiver
Editor’s note: Treylon Burks is for some reason available in 51 percent of leagues as of Tuesday. He profiles as a potential target hog in a Tennessee offense that has shown some fleeting willingness to open up the pass game over the past month. Before his Week 13 brain injury on a dirty hit, Burks led the Titans with a 21 percent target share and a 30 percent air yards share from Week 10-12.
Marquise Goodwin (SEA)
Rostership: 3 percent
Tyler Lockett is out for at least a week with a broken finger he suffered at the tail end of last Thursday’s loss to the Niners. Lockett’s absence opens up 32 percent of the Seahawks’ air yards and 24 percent of the team’s targets. A mere ten players have more air yards than Lockett this season.
Goodwin should step into an every-down role in a Seattle offense that has had no choice but to throw more than Pete Carroll would ever want. Geno Smith has at least 37 pass attempts in each of the past four weeks as the Hawks are fifth in pass rate over expected on the season. And they’ll continue to pass as much as anyone in the league this week against Kansas City, the league’s third most extreme pass funnel defense.
Goodwin has come through for fantasy purposes almost any time he sees a decent route rate this season. Against Carolina in Week 14, he caught five of six targets for 95 yards and a score while running a route on 80 percent of the team’s drop backs. He saw a 74 percent route rate in Week 7 against the Chargers and caught four passes for 67 yards and two touchdowns. Operating from the slot on 55 percent of his routes, Goodwin certainly has volume-based upside in Week 16 against the Chiefs. His slot usage could increase with part-time slot man Lockett being sidelined.
I’m firmly on board with starting Goodwin in all 12-team formats in fantasy semifinal week. May God have mercy on my soul.
Chris Moore (HOU)
Rostership: 19 percent
The folks, it appears, were not impressed by Moore’s 10-catch Week 14 performance against the Cowboys. He remains widely available after he once again led the Texans in pass routes and saw 33 percent of the team’s targets in Week 15 against Kansas City. Moore finished with four grabs for 42 scoreless yards. Nevertheless.
Moore should remain the de facto alpha wideout in the Houston offense if Brandin Cooks (general disinterest) and Nico Collins (foot) remain sidelined. Houston’s ability to keep pace with vastly superior opponents isn’t the best development for Moore, but no one else in the Texans offense has proven capable of commanding targets. Moore is fourth among all receivers in yards per route run over the past two weeks. Plug him in this week against Tennessee’s sieve of a secondary.
Jahan Dotson (WAS)
Rostership: 17 percent
The rookie has reasserted himself as a full-time player in the Washington offense. On Sunday night against the Giants, Dotson ran a route on 30 of 34 Washington drop backs and saw five targets, trailing only Terry McLaurin (six targets). He turned that into six catches, 105 yards, and a touchdown.
Passing volume won’t always be there for Dotson -- or any Commanders pass catcher -- in an offense that hasn’t been above their expected pass rate since Week 5. Still, Dotson is interesting in 14-team formats.
Mecole Hardman (KC)
Rostership: 29 percent
Hardman should be back for Week 16. Last week he was activated from injured reserve after a month recovering from his November abdomen injury but didn’t suit up against the Texans.
Hardman was weirdly involved (and good) in the Kansas City passing attack before his injury. He had at least four receptions in four straight games and was a primary red zone weapon for Andy Reid, scoring four (mostly short) touchdowns over that stretch. Hardman was third among Chiefs pass catchers in expected fantasy points from Week 5-9. Meanwhile, Kadarius Toney is not and won’t be a consistent part of the team’s offense and Justin Watson is running a bunch of empty routes every week.
You could probably do worse than using Hardman against a Seattle defense that can’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air.
Other receivers to roster
K.J. Osborn (5 percent): Weird things happen when a team sees a spike in offensive play volume. And so it was on Saturday, when Minnesota logged 91 offensive snaps in their historic comeback against the hapless Colts. Osborn took in 10 of 15 targets for 157 yards and a score as Kirk Cousins dropped back 61 times. Adam Thielen, meanwhile, was targeted on just 6.5 percent of his routes. At best, Osborn is the team’s No. 3 pass catching option. At worst, he’s fourth or fifth. He only had three games of more than four catches this season coming into Week 15. Check your expectations for Osborn if you grab him off the wire.
Richie James (14 percent): James had an 85 percent routes rate, running all his routes from the slot against the Commanders on Sunday night. He caught four balls for 42 yards on five targets, and now has 20 receptions over his past four games in the uber run-heavy New York offense. He’s a floor PPR option who will continue to be game script sensitive.
Chase Claypool (44 percent): Claypool, who missed Chicago’s Week 15 loss to the Eagles with a knee injury, would slot in as the Bears’ clear No. 1 receiver if he can suit up this week. Equanimeous St. Brown could be out with a brain injury, Darnell Mooney is out, and the Bears have few viable wideout options for the season’s final three weeks.
Parris Campbell (35 percent): I know, the Colts offense is disgusting on every level. But I’m legally obliged to tell you Campbell is running almost all the routes and serving as Matt Ryan‘s short-area slot guy. It’s not the worst role to have with a dead-armed elderly quarterback under center.
Tutu Atwell (1 percent): Atwell coulda woulda shoulda had a big Monday night against Green Bay. He ran a route on 89 percent of the Rams’ drop backs, saw four targets, and dropped a touchdown and what would have been a long game over the middle of the field. Atwell is playing ahead of Ben Skowronek as the Rams’ No. 2 wideout.
Alec Pierce (13 percent): Pierce saw three targets on 34 pass routes in Week 15 against the Vikings. He caught none of them. My Saturday slate DFS lineups will never forget, or forgive. Pierce’s 90 percent route rate was encouraging though. Obviously he’s little more than a desperation option in deep leagues.
Tight End
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN)
Rostership: 29 percent
The Titans finally did the right thing and had Okonkwo run more pass routes than dusty, old Austin Hooper in Week 15 against the Chargers. Okonkwo delivered another efficient outing, catching four of five targets for 54 yards. The rookie leads all tight ends in yards per route run since Week 12.
If Treylon Burks remains out in Week 16, Okonkwo should continue operating as the default WR1 in the Tennessee offense. The problem with Okonkwo’s Week 16 prospects: Everyone turns heavily toward the run against the Texans, and the Titans will be no different. That could lead to fewer routes and targets for Chig (the zoomers are calling him Chig). Still, he should be rostered.
Juwan Johnson (NO)
Rostership: 20 percent
I’m going to be a killjoy and point out that Johnson has a 51 percent route participation rate over the Saints’ past five games. Who cares that he’s scored five touchdowns over that span? You do? Well, well, well, someone doesn’t love the process.
Johnson has scored those five touchdowns on just 14 receptions. Maybe he can sustain something close to this kind of absurd touchdown rate as an enormous red zone target who gets the full attention of Andy Dalton every time the Saints are approaching the end zone. I still think he’s a fairly thin fantasy option until and unless his route rate gets into the 70-80 percent range.
Jeff Driskel (HOU)
Rostership: 21 percent
After splitting snaps evenly with Davis Mills in Week 14, Driskel played a meager 29 percent of the Texans’ Week 15 snaps and had four carries for eight scoreless yards while completing two of his four passes for eight yards. His encouraging usage did not translate to the Texans’ matchup with the Chiefs.
That it didn’t work out the way we had hoped shouldn’t stop you from playing Driskel in the tight end spot over other streaming options in Week 16. Those read-option touches -- especially in the red zone -- are far more valuable than anything a traditional tight end waiver wire option will see. Do not give up on the process. One day, it might even work.
Hayden Hurst (CIN)
Rostership: 35 percent
There’s a chance, however small, that Hurst returns from his calf injury this week. Before his calf strain, Hurst was among the league leaders in tight end pass routes and would sometimes see target volume when Bengals opponents played lots of two-high coverage and forced Joe Burrow to attack the short areas of the field. Hurst has six games with more than five targets this season. That’s tough to find on the waiver wire in late December. Cincinnati’s Week 16 opponents, the Patriots, are the worst matchup for tight ends.
Other tight ends to roster
Tyler Conklin (30 percent): Conklin is running more routes than teammate C.J. Uzomah. He does not have the same touchdown fortune, however. In what could be a pass-heavy script this week against Jacksonville, Conklin makes sense as a desperation streamer.
CJ Uzomah (4 percent): Before you experience even a shred of excitement about Uzomah’s two-touchdown Week 15 performance against the Lions, remember he’s run a route on 28.7 percent of the team’s drop backs over the past three weeks. Uzomah has yet to see more than three targets in a game this year. Try to relax.
Kicker
Michael Badgley (DET)
Rostership: 46 percent
The unfortunately named Money Badger has ridden positive and neutral game script to ten field goals over the Lions’ past three games. Detroit’s offense is clicking, their defense is playing just well enough to keep games close, and Badgley is seeing consistent field goal opportunity.
He fits the process this week against the Panthers: Detroit enters as three-point favorites against a Carolina team that has allowed multiple field goal tries in nine of 14 games. Badgley is a top kicker play for Week 16.
Cade York (CLE)
Rostership: 4 percent
I take exceedingly little pleasure in touting a kicker as shaky as York. The rookie has whiffed on eight of his 30 field goal tries and a few extra points this season. But the process is the process. We follow it without question. Please stop referring to me as a cult leader.
The Browns are in a good spot in Week 16, favored by three over the down-bad Saints, who have given up the fifth most field goal attempts (32) in 2022. York, meanwhile, has averaged a hearty 2.5 field goal tries in Cleveland wins this season. He’s fresh off a four-attempt performance against Baltimore. Hopefully the rookie exorcises the yips in the coming days.
Riley Patterson (JAC)
Rostership: 2 percent
I did not have to look up the name of the Jacksonville kicker. Anyone who says so is a filthy liar bent on destroying my reputation. Once again, I did not google the Jaguars depth chart before writing this entry.
Anyway, Patterson is a fine option against the Jets this week. New York is allowing the league’s eighth most field goal attempts largely because their red zone defense has been nails for most of the season. Jacksonville is a 1.5-point home favorite as of this writing, and Trevor Lawrence -- per the analytics -- has emerged as a professional passer of the football. Lawrence’s recent play has generated multiple field goal tries for Patterson in six straight games.
