Happy Thanksgiving! The bye weeks are officially over and we’re heading home on closing out the regular season for fantasy leagues. If you’ve had a tough season and are unfortunately eliminated from fantasy contention, your fantasy season still doesn’t have to end. You can dip your toes into daily fantasy games to keep your fantasy itch scratched. Also, since we’re getting later in the year and weather is starting to get sketchy, I’ll do my best to provide updates that pertain to weather come Sunday.
As for the token disclaimer, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
Lastly, as the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is NOT a start/sit column, rather an expectations column. The labels for each subset of players for each game are simply a vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player that you can find at the end of the column. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 12 games with a PPR light…
Vikings @ Lions
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 23.8 | Implied Total | 20.8 | ||
| 24.1 | 11 | Points/Gm | 27.1 | 5 |
| 17.2 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 19 |
| 65.9 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 17 |
| 62.0 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 13 |
| 46.3% | 7 | Rush% | 38.0% | 24 |
| 53.7% | 26 | Pass% | 62.0% | 9 |
| 37.4% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 41.4% | 13 |
| 62.6% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 58.6% | 20 |
- These two teams have played seven times since Mike Zimmer joined Minnesota and not once in those meetings have both teams scored 20 or more points in the same game and just twice in those games have they combined for 40 or more points.
- Matthew Stafford has finished higher than QB16 in one of seven games versus the Vikings under Zimmer.
- The Vikings have allowed five touchdown passes over their past seven games. Only the Jaguars (four) have allowed fewer.
- Marvin Jones has totaled seven catches for 101 yards in his three games against the Vikings since joining the Lions.
- Ameer Abdullah is the first Lions running back to score a touchdown in three straight games since Theo Riddick in 2014.
- Detroit has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in three straight games for the first time since 2008.
- The Vikings have at least one rushing touchdown in nine of 10 games this season, the most in the league.
- The Lions have faced a league-high 18 rushing attempts from inside of the 5-yard line this season.
- Latavius Murray has out-touched Jerick McKinnon 6-to-2 inside of the 5-yard line since the loss of Dalvin Cook.
Trust: Adam Thielen (his ceiling has been unlocked now that he’s scored in three straight games, but even when he is inevitably shut out of the paint again, he has one of the best fantasy floors at the position and has a better individual draw than Diggs)
Bust: Case Keenum (he’s been a sturdy to good option in three of his past four games, but he’s still only a QB2 option on a full week and Detroit has only allowed two QB1 weeks on the season and multiple touchdown passes in just three games while 45 percent of the fantasy points they’ve allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the past three weeks has been on the ground), Matthew Stafford (he’s had six straight games at QB13 or higher and has notched a hefty 9.9 yards per attempt over his past four, so I understand just riding with him in seasonal leagues, but his history versus this defensive scheme and Minnesota smothering the pass has me expecting a week where fights to meet his QB1 expectations), Marvin Jones (he’s going to draw Xavier Rhodes the most of all the receivers and his production versus Rhodes has been limited), Ameer Abdullah (the best rushing game of his career came in the first meeting between these teams, but Minnesota has since smothered the run, allowing the third fewest rushing points per game to running backs and Abdullah has been a touchdown or bust commodity, finishing as an RB3 or lower in the six games in which he failed to score a touchdown), Theo Riddick (he’s only a floor option as the opportunity hasn’t been there for him consistently this season while Minnesota is fifth in receiving points allowed to opposing backfields), Eric Ebron (he’s gotten back to high TE2 relevancy over the past month and Minnesota is 23rd in targets faced to tight ends per game if you can stomach using him, but he’s still has double-digit points just twice on the season), Kenny Golladay (he has a 40-yard catch in each of the past two games, but ran just 15 routes last week, which is still behind T.J. Jones. You can chase a big play in Thanksgiving Day tournaments, but he’s still a fragile option as the Vikings have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing wideouts over their past seven games)
Reasonable Return: Stefon Diggs (he’s had success versus Detroit and Darius Slay, with a top-20 scoring week in all three of his career games against the Lions, but Thielen still has the better draw and has bypassed him in terms of reliability), Latavius Murray (he’s weighted by touchdown output, but Detroit is handing out rushing scores to backs and have allowed over 200 rushing yards in back to back games), Jerick McKinnon (he still has 17 or more touches in five of his past six games with a low of 12 touches, but can no longer be counted on for a touchdown while Detroit is 24th in receptions allowed to opposing backfields), Kyle Rudolph (he hasn’t shown a the ceiling he did a year ago, but does have five or more catches in six straight games while Detroit is allowing 9.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends, the most in the league), Golden Tate (he’ll avoid Rhodes while in the slot as Rhodes has played just four snaps in the slot against Detroit over their past five meetings, but because Stafford may not have a ceiling game, we’re looking a reception-based fantasy game here)
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Chargers @ Cowboys
| LA Chargers | Rank | @ | Dallas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Spread | 0 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 22.1 | 16 | Points/Gm | 24.2 | 9 |
| 19.6 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 24.2 | 20 |
| 61.6 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 15 |
| 66.4 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 15 |
| 39.6% | 22 | Rush% | 46.0% | 8 |
| 60.4% | 11 | Pass% | 54.0% | 25 |
| 42.5% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 39.9% | 6 |
| 57.5% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 60.1% | 27 |
- The Cowboys rank 30th in yards per drive (20.2), 30th in percent of scoring drives (18.2 percent) and 31st percent of touchdown drives (4.5 percent) over the past two weeks.
- The Chargers are allowing 1.0 touchdowns in the red zone per game, the second fewest in the league. Opponents have converted 40 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league.
- Opponents have completed 26.2 percent (16-of-61) of their passes 15 yards or further downfield against the Chargers, the lowest rate in the league.
- Dez Bryant hasn’t reached 100-yards receiving in 17 consecutive games, the second-longest drought in his career (21 games from 2010-2012).
- The Chargers ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs (4.92 YPC) while Dallas ranks 30th (4.63 YPC).
- Opposing running backs have rushed 105 times for 568 yards (5.4 YPC) with four touchdowns in the four games that Sean Lee has missed outright or played fewer than 10 snaps.
- In the other six games, opposing backs have carried 101 times for 386 yards (3.8 YPC) with two touchdowns.
- Dallas is allowing 2.1 red zone touchdowns per game, 30th in the league.
Trust: Melvin Gordon (Dallas has steadily been gashed on the ground with Sean Lee sidelined and Gordon has still averaged 18.8 touches per game over the past month despite catching more than one pass just once over his past four games), Keenan Allen (he popped last week in a big way and should push to continue that as Dallas has allowed 15 or more points to the opposing team’s lead receiver three of their past four games)
Bust: Hunter Henry (he had five targets last week after seeing four over the previous two games, but has just five catches total over the past three weeks), Austin Ekeler (six of his eight touches came in the fourth quarter last week with the game well out of hand, making him a risky bet to sustain his output of scoring in three of the past four weeks), Mike Williams (he had a season-high eight targets last week, but just two came in the first half when the Chargers were operating in their neutral offense), Dak Prescott (I’m not 100 percent sure that the return of Tyron Smith fixes everything given with Dallas playing so poorly the past two weeks, we have to pause on thrusting him into lineups against a defense that has allowed just three QB1 weeks all season and just three to pass for multiple touchdowns), Jason Witten (he offers little to no ceiling while the Chargers have allowed more than three receptions to just three tight ends on the season), Rod Smith (the Chargers have been hurt in the passing game by opposing backs, but so were the Eagles coming into last week. The issue is that Smith is in a role that hasn’t been featured in the offensive structure for Dallas, even when they had an elite player in Ezekiel Elliott)
Reasonable Return: Philip Rivers (he’s been a steady floor play all season long, finishing as QB8-QB16 in eight of his 10 games with 15 or more points in seven of them and you can expect that trend to continue as Dallas has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in six of their past eight games), Alfred Morris (he ran well against a much tougher run defense a week ago he has well in each of the past two games, but has been scripted out at some point in each game, which will remain a concern with him not playing in passing situations), Dez Bryant (he shouldn’t be treated with WR1 expectations at this point as he’s been a WR1 in just one of his past seven games, but also lower than a WR3 just once)
Giants @ Washington
| NY Giants | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 18.3 | Implied Total | 25.8 | ||
| 16.2 | 30 | Points/Gm | 23.8 | 12 |
| 24.7 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 26.6 | 31 |
| 62.3 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 63.5 | 16 |
| 67.1 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 14 |
| 36.9% | 27 | Rush% | 41.7% | 17 |
| 63.1% | 6 | Pass% | 58.3% | 16 |
| 45.2% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 42.0% | 15 |
| 54.8% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 58.0% | 18 |
- New York has hit their implied team total just three times this season, ahead of only Arizona (two).
- The Giants have scored a touchdown on 7-of-57 possessions (12.3 percent) since the loss of Odell Beckham, 30th in the league.
- Orleans Darkwa has a touch or target on 63 percent of his snaps, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Jamison Crowder has 27.6 percent of the Washington targets over his past three games played after receiving 15.1 percent over his first six games played.
- Crowder hasn’t caught a touchdown pass in 13 consecutive games with a reception, the longest active streak in the league.
- The Giants have allowed seven top-12 scoring quarterbacks on the season, tied with Oakland for the most in the league.
- Vernon Davis has 22.4 percent of the Washington targets in games that Jordan Reed has missed and has been a top-12 scoring tight end in all four games.
- The Giants have allowed nine top-12 scoring tight ends on the season, the most in the league.
Trust: Kirk Cousins (only Tom Brady has more 300-yard passing games than Cousins and he’s hit 20 fantasy points in six of his past eight games while facing a defense that is 31st in passing points allowed), Samaje Perine (he’s coming off a 24 touch, 126 yard performance and is now locked into pushing 20 touches against a defense that is 21st in rushing points allowed per game as a huge home favorite), Vernon Davis (on a short week, Jordan Reed likely has high probability to sit out again, leaving Davis as a prime target against a defense giving away TE1 performances weekly), Evan Engram (he was a dud a week ago, but is still the top target in this passing game and should bounce back strong against a defense that is 29th in receptions and 32nd in yardage allowed per game to opposing tight ends)
Bust: Josh Doctson (I’m more comfortable playing Doctson in a tournament setting in DFS than I am thrusting him into seasonal lineups because he’s a high variance option. He had his best game a week ago, posting 4-81, but Marshon Lattimore also exited the game after six plays. Janoris Jenkins hasn’t been invincible recently, but it’s still a tougher matchup for Doctson than it is for Crowder, Davis and Perine), Eli Manning (there’s nothing daunting about the matchup, but the Giants aren’t an offense that you can count on as Manning has been the QB21 or lower in five of the six games without Odell Beckham), NYG WRs (Roger Lewis has the most upside and has been the largest red zone presence between he and Tavarres King while Travis Rudolph has the best individual matchup, but all are only fringe options as Manning has thrown for more than 220 yards just once since Beckham was lost for the season)
Reasonable Return: Jamison Crowder (even during a long scoring drought, he’s gotten back to becoming a weekly option, positing 12 or more points in three straight games), Orleans Darkwa (he’s been an RB2 or better in five of the past six weeks and has even caught multiple passes in four in a row, but you are always concerned that he’ll inevitably be scripted out of the game)
Browns @ Bengals
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spread | -8 | ||
| 15.0 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 15.0 | 32 | Points/Gm | 16.9 | 29 |
| 25.9 | 28 | Points All./Gm | 19.9 | 11 |
| 64.9 | 13 | Plays/Gm | 55.1 | 32 |
| 63.3 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.5 | 31 |
| 36.7% | 28 | Rush% | 41.4% | 18 |
| 63.3% | 5 | Pass% | 58.6% | 15 |
| 46.6% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 45.5% | 29 |
| 53.4% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 54.5% | 4 |
- The Bengals average 13.2 points per game at home this season, 31st in the league.
- Opposing teams have turned 76.9 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- Andy Dalton has been a top-12 scoring quarterback in five consecutive games against the Browns, throwing 13 touchdowns to zero interceptions in those games while averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game.
- Dalton has thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games against the Browns, tying the longest streak of multiple touchdown passes allowed by the Browns to an opposing quarterback (Warren Moon 1989-1991).
- Corey Coleman returned to play 93 percent of the snaps and receive 34.4 percent of the team targets in Week 11.
- DeShone Kizer has completed 48-of-99 passes (48.5 percent, lowest in the league) for 489 yards (4.9 Y/A) with two touchdowns and five interceptions (the most in the league) in the fourth quarter of games this season.
- 37.7 percent of the completions against the Bengals have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust: Andy Dalton (the top streaming option this week, he’s steadily torched the Browns and Cleveland is allowing the third highest touchdown rate to opposing passers on the season)
Bust: Isaiah Crowell (the Bengals have given up rushing yardage since their bye, but that yardage has come in games in which the opponent has controlled the game script and stacked volume as they’re still allowing just 3.7 YPC to backs over that span. With Cleveland as large road underdogs, it’s hard to bank on Crowell staying invested in the game plan)
Reasonable Return: A.J. Green (he’s only had more than five catches in two games and hit 75 yards in three, but he’s scored six times and is in a game where we’re expecting Dalton to throw multiple touchdowns), Joe Mixon (the Browns just lost Emmanuel Ogbah for the season, but the Bengals are the worst rushing team in the NFL, which has limited Mixon to being a volume-based flex option only), Tyler Kroft (he’s been the TE13 or better in five of his past seven games and while we can’t count on another 6-68-2 line like he had the first time these teams met, we’re always circling Cleveland as a target for tight end options as they’ve allowed the second most touchdowns to the position), DeShone Kizer (through all of the negatives, he’s actually been a QB1 in two his past three games while the Bengals are allowing 14.3 passing points per game over that four-game span and have allowed 20 or more rushing yards to three straight quarterbacks), Corey Coleman (he’s had 24 targets in his three games played on the season and although the Bengals have limited wide receiver output on the season, he had a worse matchup a week ago and came out just fine as a WR3 option), Duke Johnson (he’s had just two weeks outside of flex status at worst with six top-15 weeks while the Bengals are 23rd in receiving points allowed to backfields)
Panthers @ Jets
| Carolina | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 22.3 | Implied Total | 17.8 | ||
| 21.3 | 18 | Points/Gm | 20.1 | 23 |
| 18.0 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 22.2 | 16 |
| 65.7 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 30 |
| 55.7 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 26 |
| 46.4% | 5 | Rush% | 42.1% | 16 |
| 53.6% | 28 | Pass% | 57.9% | 17 |
| 37.5% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 44.1% | 24 |
| 62.5% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 55.9% | 9 |
- The Jets average 4.5 red zone plays per game, the fewest in the league.
- Carolina is allowing 1.9 red zone possessions per game, the second fewest in the league.
- The Panthers are allowing 213.9 passing yards per game to opposing passers, second in the league behind Jacksonville (209.3).
- 38.7 percent of Robby Anderson‘s receptions have gone for 20 or more yards, the highest rate for all players with 20 or more catches on the season.
- The Panthers are the only team in the league that has yet to allow multiple rushing touchdowns in the same game this season.
- Cam Newton has 46.6 rushing points since Week 6, which is 11th of all players in the league.
- Carolina running backs have rushed 56 times for 291 yards (5.2 YPC) with three touchdowns over the past two weeks after rushing 167 times for 464 yards (2.8 YPC) and one touchdown over their first eight games.
- Devin Funchess has accounted for 45.5 percent of the Carolina receiving yardage since Kelvin Benjamin was traded, which would rank eighth for all wide receivers over the full course of the season.
Trust: Cam Newton (he has rushed for 44 or more yards in five straight games while the Jets have allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks and five different passers to add 25 or more yards rushing onto their totals)
Bust: Greg Olsen (the tight end position is so thin that I understand wanting to push him back into lineups, but as always, we preach caution on players returning from multi-week injuries and players that have recently returned from Olsen’s injury –Julian Edelman, Dez Bryant-- have taken time to get back on track once active), Jonathan Stewart (still dependent on finding the end zone to carry his totals against a defense that has allowed just one back to clear 60-yards rushing over their past six games), Josh McCown (he’s been living off long touchdowns to carry any totals he’s produced, which is a tough way to live while only Carson Wentz has finished higher than QB11 versus Carolina and the only quarterbacks to score more than 15 points against them have been among the elite scorers at the position), NYJ RBs (Matt Forte is still a question mark and given the near 50/50 split between Elijah McGuire and Bilal Powell, neither are usable options against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to backfields), Austin-Seferian Jenkins (he’s going to need a touchdown as he’s hit 50-yards in just one game and Carolina has held all but two tight ends to fewer than 40 yards)
Reasonable Return: Christian McCaffrey (he’s found the end zone in four of his past six games to boost and already safe floor while having 20 percent or more of the team targets in every game except for one), Devin Funchess (the Jets have only allowed one lead receiver to post a WR1 scoring week, but have allowed seven of the past eight to notch top-30 scoring weeks), Robby Anderson (he’s scored in four straight games, but also has been held to fewer than 50 yards in two of those games)
Titans @ Colts
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 22.2 | 15 | Points/Gm | 17.9 | 25 |
| 25.3 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 28.0 | 32 |
| 62.4 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 23 |
| 65.2 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 22 |
| 44.1% | 12 | Rush% | 43.8% | 14 |
| 55.9% | 21 | Pass% | 56.2% | 19 |
| 38.5% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 43.0% | 21 |
| 61.5% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 57.0% | 12 |
- Since Week 5, Jacoby Brissett is the QB13 in overall scoring (15.7 points per game), with just one week (against Jacksonville) in the back half of fantasy quarterback scoring.
- 67.2 percent of Marlon Mack‘s rushing yards have come on runs of 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league. 37.9 percent of his carries have failed to gain yardage, also the highest rate in the league.
- Jack Doyle leads all tight ends in being targeted on 24.6 percent of his routes while Delanie Walker ranks second at 23.8 percent.
- Indianapolis leads the league in percentage of yardage allowed on completions of 20 or more yards (50.9 percent) while Tennessee allows the fewest (26.2 percent).
- The Colts have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in five games this season, the most in the league.
- The Titans have a rushing touchdown in eight different games this season, second in the league.
- Tennessee rushes the ball on 68.6 percent of the plays from inside of the 10-yard line, the highest rate in the league (league average is 49.0 percent).
- Just 4.3 percent (5-of-117) of DeMarco Murray‘s rushing attempts have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate for all running backs with 100 or more carries on the season.
Trust: Marcus Mariota (he’s entering a soft spot in his schedule, starting with this week against a defense that is 31st in passing yardage allowed per game, including 306 to Mariota himself back in Week 6)
Bust: Marlon Mack (he’s been RB50 or lower in four of his five games without a touchdown), Rishard Matthews (after suffering an injury late in the week and missing practive Friday, he’s looking doubtful and will be a major risk to reaggrevate the injury if he does play),
Reasonable Return: Delanie Walker (after a sketchy start to the season, he’s reeled off four consecutive games with double-digit points, all without a touchdown), DeMarco Murray (he’s been far from efficient or reliable for a ceiling, but is still dominating the snap share and has had an RB2/flex floor while this is a matchup that can elevate another meandering game), Derrick Henry (he has a low floor, but is in the mix as a flex option against a Colts defense that allowed this duo to rush 31 times for 171 yards and a pair of scores when these teams last played), Jacoby Brissett (he’s been a safe floor streamer and the Titans are 28th in passing points per game allowed), T.Y. Hilton (he was a dud the first time these teams met, but Tennessee has been a target for lead wideouts, allowing 14.6 points or more to eight of the 10 WR1s they’ve faced), Jack Doyle (Tennessee isn’t generous to opposing tight ends, but Doyle has five or more catches in five of past six games with at least 20 percent of the team targets in seven of his nine games played), Frank Gore (a volume-based flex, he’s had 18 or more touches in each of his past three games), Corey Davis (with Matthews’ injury, this is an opportunity for the snaps and targets to turn into production, but he’s still just a WR3/WR3 option with upside if he’s elevated to the WR1 as the Colts have allowed just three top-24 weeks to opposing WR1s), Eric Decker (he’s still a factor in the red zone whil ehaving his highest totals in targets and receptions on the season when these teams last played in Wek 6)
Buccaneers @ Falcons
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Atlanta | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | Spread | -10.5 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 29.0 | ||
| 20.3 | 22 | Points/Gm | 23.1 | 13 |
| 22.8 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 21.0 | 13 |
| 63.0 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 60.4 | 28 |
| 64.8 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 18 |
| 37.0% | 26 | Rush% | 43.4% | 15 |
| 63.0% | 7 | Pass% | 56.6% | 18 |
| 42.1% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 40.9% | 10 |
| 57.9% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 59.1% | 23 |
- Tampa Bay is allowing 317.3 passing yards per game to opposing passers, 31st in the league.
- Matt Ryan has been a top-9 scoring quarterback in each of his past four starts against Tampa Bay at home, throwing 10 touchdowns and one interception over those games with at least 20 fantasy points in each game.
- Opposing wide receivers have accounted for 68.4 percent of the receiving yardage against Tampa Bay, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Opposing WR1s facing Tampa Bay are averaging 17.8 points per game, the third-highest total in the league.
- In 10 career games versus the Buccaneers, Julio Jones has 68 catches for 1,110 yards and eight touchdowns. He averages 22.5 fantasy points per game with at least 16.6 points in nine of those 10 games.
- Just 23.3 percent of the yardage gained by the Buccaneers has been rushing, 31st in the league.
- The Buccaneers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards as a team in seven consecutive games, their longest streak as a franchise since 2001, which is tied for their longest streak all time.
- Atlanta is allowing 10.0 yards per completion, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust: Julio Jones (owners are undoubtedly frustrated that he’s been a WR1 just once on the season and has only one touchdown, but dodging his ceiling has been more about being unlucky --and one horrendous drop-- as he is still fourth in the league in receiving yards per game, leads all wide receivers in target rate per route, has a 31.4 percent target market share over the past five games and is in a spot he’s typically destroyed over the past against Tampa Bay, who currently happens to be a target for us weekly during this season for wide receiver play), Matt Ryan (you could almost echo what was said about Jones this week for Ryan. He’s been a floor play only so far this season, but Tampa Bay has lifting up a litany of pedestrian passers, ranking 27th in passing points allowed per game and 30th in yardage allowed per game to opposing passers), Tevin Coleman (his game on Monday Night went as expected against an extremely stout defense and he still managed to accrue 21 touches. If Freeman is out once again, he’ll roll that volume over against a defense that is 19th in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields instead of one that is fourth), Mike Evans (owners are feeling slighted by Evans to a lesser extant than Julio, but Evans still has double-digit points in seven of nine games played and has scored four touchdowns over his past three games versus Atlanta)
Bust: Austin Hooper (he’s been far too up and down to stock against a defense that is allowing the fourth fewest points per game to the position as targets against them are steadily going to wideouts), DeSean Jackson (two of his three touchdowns have come from Fitzpatrick, but he’s had fewer than 40 yards in five of his past eight games and Atlanta has been excellent at preventing deep completions), Cameron Brate (he has just one catch in three straight games with Fitzpatrick playing heavily), Doug Martin (the volume has been there, but even with all his touches, he’s been a RB3 or lower in five straight games and has seven, 51 and 44 total yards over the past three weeks)
Reasonable Return: Mohamed Sanu (he’s had only three catches in each of the past three games with 34 or fewer yards in each game, but has been a touchdown producer, scoring three touchdowns over his past four games, something you can still chase against a team that has allowed the fifth most touchdowns to wide receivers), Ryan Fitzpatrick (he’s still in play as a streamer against a defense that has allowed four top-12 quarterbacks over their past five games and have allowed double-digit rushing points to each of the past three quarterbacks)
Dolphins @ Patriots
| Miami | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | Spread | -16.5 | ||
| 15.5 | Implied Total | 32.0 | ||
| 15.7 | 31 | Points/Gm | 29.0 | 4 |
| 25.4 | 26 | Points All./Gm | 20.3 | 12 |
| 60.7 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 67.6 | 2 |
| 60.2 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 19 |
| 36.6% | 29 | Rush% | 39.9% | 21 |
| 63.4% | 4 | Pass% | 60.1% | 12 |
| 43.9% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 37.8% | 4 |
| 56.2% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 62.2% | 29 |
- The Dolphins have had the lead for 40 of their offensive snaps (6.6 percent), ahead of only San Francisco (34) and Cleveland (31) on the season.
- The Patriots have had the lead for 57.2 percent of their offensive plays, the second-highest rate in the league behind Philadelphia (61.8 percent).
- The Patriots are allowing 12.5 points per game over their past six games, second in the league behind only Jacksonville (11.2) over that span.
- Jarvis Landry‘s 45.4 points scored from inside of the 10-yard line are the most for all wide receivers and second to only Todd Gurley (52.2 points) for all players.
- In the six games in which Matt Moore has thrown at least 10 passes over the past two years, Kenny Stills has averaged 21.8 percent of the team targets and scored six touchdowns, with at least one score in five of those six games.
- 32.3 percent of the Miami rushing attempts have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- 40 percent of Brandin Cooks’ receptions have come on targets 15 yards or further downfield, the second-highest rate in the league behind Will Fuller (41.2 percent).
- Per Pro Football Focus, James White is averaging 11.5 routes run per game over the past four games since the return of Rex Burkhead after averaging 25.5 per game prior.
Trust: Tom Brady (he’s been a QB1 in eight of his past nine games while Miami is 27th in touchdown rate allowed and 28th in passing points allowed per attempt), Rob Gronkowski (he’s had two down games for his expectations in strong matchups and draws another strong one here. Miami ranks 29th in receptions and 26th in yardage allowed per game to opposing tight ends), Brandin Cooks (he’s held his safest floor of his career while still offering upside and Miami has allowed five touchdowns of 30-yards or longer, tied for the second most in the league)
Bust: James White (at his apex he was still just a floor and now he’s had single-digit touches now in six straight games and is losing receiving opportunity), Matt Moore (if he starts this week for Jay Cutler, I wouldn’t anticipate him playing as poorly as he did against the Ravens on a short week earlier in the year, but the Patriots haven’t allowed a top-12 quarterback since Week 6), DeVante Parker (this isn’t a passing game that support three fantasy wide receivers weekly and if Moore is the starter, then you have to like Stills more than Parker), Kenyan Drake/Damien Williams (both are low-end flex options as they’ve split touches 35-to-34 in favor of Williams, but I’d edge towards Drake this week if using one as Drake has run 58 pass routes to 44 for Williams if the game script gets out of hand)
Reasonable Return: Dion Lewis (he’s emerged as the safest play in this backfield, having at least 14 touches in each of his past four games, but is still just in the RB2 mix due to all of the other backs shaving enough away from him), Rex Burkhead (even with his fumble scare and losing playing time last week he still managed to be a low-end flex option, but he’s not nearly as safe as Lewis is), Danny Amendola (with Chris Hogan still a longer shot to play this week, Amendola is still a WR3 option), Jarvis Landry (even when the short touchdowns become elusive, he still has at least five receptions in every game this season), Kenny Stills (if Cutler starts, then flip Parker and Stills, but if Moore is under center, his past four touchdown passes in the league have gone to Stills and five of his past six)
Bears @ Eagles
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Philadelphia | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | Spread | -13.5 | ||
| 15.3 | Implied Total | 28.8 | ||
| 17.4 | 27 | Points/Gm | 32.0 | 1 |
| 22.1 | 15 | Points All./Gm | 18.8 | 7 |
| 60.2 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 6 |
| 62.3 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.7 | 9 |
| 48.2% | 2 | Rush% | 48.0% | 3 |
| 51.8% | 31 | Pass% | 52.1% | 30 |
| 44.3% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 31.3% | 1 |
| 55.7% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 68.7% | 32 |
- The Eagles have scored 30 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1953.
- The Eagles have scored a touchdown on 15 of their past 16 red zone possessions. League average for the season is 56.5 percent.
- Carson Wentz has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight games, the most in the league.
- Zach Ertz has 18.4 percent of the team targets over his past four games after receiving 27.3 percent through his first five games.
- Philadelphia has allowed a touchdown on two of their opponent’s 38 possessions over their past three games, the lowest rate in the league.
- Just 4.2 percent of Mitchell Trubisky‘s pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate for all passers to play multiple games.
- Over the past two weeks, Corey Clement has 19 touches, LeGarrette Blount 22 and Jay Ajay has 16. Clement has six red zone touches, Blount has four and Ajayi has three.
Trust: Carson Wentz (his 7.9 percent touchdown rate has yet to deflate and while Chicago has allowed the sixth fewest touchdown passes on the season, they showed last week that they can still be beaten by hot quarterback play), Alshon Jeffery (with Wentz as hot as he is, you keep him near the top of the receiver pool and he’s averaging 29.5 percent of the team targets over his past five games and has scored in three straight games)
Bust: PHI RBs (all are options for your flex and if we could start the group, we’d be set, but this is tougher to decipher than New England with so much variance involved in each performance. Ajayi has runs of 71 and 46 yards that are anchoring his yardage on few touches and Clement has scored four touchdowns over the past two games. You can keep using them while the offense is firing at full speed, but these are things that are not sustainable if the usage continues to be spread out so thinly for each player), Nelson Agholor (you can always chase a score with Wentz firing at full capacity, but he’s also been WR48 or lower in his five games without a touchdown), Jordan Howard (you’re definitely starting him the majority of seasonal leagues, but he’s gone up and down all year since his floor isn’t helped by receptions and he’s only had 15 touches in each of the past two weeks in games that Chicago has been in, which is concerning in a game with the Bears as huge road dogs, while the Eagles have allowed 40-yards rushing to just two backs on the season), Mitchell Trubisky (48 percent of his fantasy points have come over his past two games and he offers some ability with his legs, but the Eagles have kept the past three quarterbacks they’ve faced to fewer than 11 points), Dontrelle Inman (he’s a fine stab at a floor in the flex, but is going to live in that 5-8 target range with a limited ceiling)
Reasonable Return: Zach Ertz (his yardage has dropped along with his targets and while the Bears are strong overall against tight ends, the only top-12 scorers they’ve faced on the season are Kyle Rudolph and Cameron Brate)
Bills @ Chiefs
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 17.5 | Implied Total | 27.5 | ||
| 20.8 | 19 | Points/Gm | 26.2 | 7 |
| 25.0 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 22.0 | 14 |
| 61.9 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 26 |
| 66.4 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 25 |
| 46.4% | 6 | Rush% | 40.9% | 20 |
| 53.6% | 27 | Pass% | 59.1% | 13 |
| 42.9% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 42.5% | 17 |
| 57.1% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 57.5% | 16 |
- The Bills are the only team in the league to allow more rushing touchdowns (16) than passing (11).
- Opponents have run on 59.6 percent of their offensive plays against Buffalo over the past three weeks, the highest rate in the league.
- The Bills have the most rushing yards in the NFL over the past three weeks (698), allowing season-high yardage for the Jets (194 yards), Saints (298) and the second-most yards the Chargers have had in a game (146) on the season.
- Buffalo is allowing 5.3 red zone possessions per game over that span, the most in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored a touchdown on two of their past 10 red zone possessions, ahead of only the Colts over that span.
- Kareem Hunt has just five touches inside of the 10-yard line since Week 2 and the Chiefs have run just 18 total plays from that area of the field over that span, 30th in the league.
- The Chiefs rank 32nd in rate of runs to gain five or more yards (39.8 percent), rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (16.8 percent), rate of runs that result in a first down (27.6 percent) and 29th in rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (18.6 percent).
- LeSean McCoy has 37 touches over his past three games after averaging 25 touches per game over his first seven games of the season.
- 42.1 percent of the receiving yardage allowed by the Chiefs have come on throws 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Kareem Hunt (he’s been a fringe RB2 now in three straight games and scoring opportunities have dried up, but there’s reason to keep the lights on for a ceiling week as he still has 21 or more touches in two of those three games and ran a season-high 27 pass routes last week while Buffalo has been hemorrhaging rushing yardage), Tyreek Hill (the Bills are allowing 18.6 points per game to opposing WR1s, the third highest in the league), Travis Kelce (only Antonio Brown has more 100-yard receiving games than Kelce’s four while Buffalo is 25th in receptions allowed to tight ends per game)
Bust: Charles Clay (he’s still not completely right as he’s had just 10.4 percent of the team targets since returning and has run just 16 and 17 routes in those games after seeing 25.3 percent of the team targets and running 28 routes per game prior to injury)
Reasonable Return: Alex Smith (coming off his worst game of the season, if we’re feeling good about all of his main weapons, we have to like him as well, but Buffalo has allowed multiple passing touchdowns just twice this season), LeSean McCoy (Shady has been feast or famine on the season, with four top-5 weeks and four weeks at RB23 or lower and his touches have been at 12, 11 and 14 over the past three weeks. The Chiefs have steadily struggled versus the run this season, but McCoy may have to make the most of his touches again before the Bills fall behind once again, which is a slight concern here that is heightened if Peterman starts again) Tyrod Taylor (a safe floor fantasy commodity, he was still a top-12 quarterback last week in just a half of play), Zay Jones (he’s usable as he’s been the WR15 and WR36 in his past two games played and with Kelvin Benjamin expected to be questionable at best, will get the most targets in this offense against a defense that has struggled to defend receivers away from Marcus Peters, which is where he’ll run nearly 70 percent of his routes)
Seahawks @ 49ers
| Seattle | Rank | @ | San Francisco | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 24.8 | Implied Total | 17.3 | ||
| 24.2 | 10 | Points/Gm | 17.4 | 28 |
| 19.9 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 26.0 | 29 |
| 66.6 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 65.5 | 9 |
| 63.4 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.7 | 32 |
| 39.2% | 23 | Rush% | 35.4% | 32 |
| 60.8% | 10 | Pass% | 64.6% | 1 |
| 40.5% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 48.4% | 32 |
| 59.5% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 51.7% | 1 |
- The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, the longest streak in the league.
- The 49ers allow 29.0 points per game at home this season, the most in the league.
- The 49ers allow 2.2 touchdowns in the red zone per game, the most in the league.
- San Francisco has trailed by multiple possessions for 41.7 percent of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- C.J. Beathard has targeted Carlos Hyde 20 percent of the time, the highest rate on the 49ers.
- Hyde has been the RB6 and the RB11 in his two games as the starting running back against Seattle, posting 105 and 147 yards from scrimmage in those two meetings.
Trust: Russell Wilson (he’s doing everything for this offense on his way to a QB9 or better finish in eight of his past nine games with 25 or more points in five of those games while leading the team in rushing in three of the past four games), Jimmy Graham (he’s their goal line back with a league-leading five touchdowns inside of the 5-yard line and the 49ers have allowed a TE1 in four straight weeks), Doug Baldwin (he’s had just 12 targets total the past two weeks, but has still had 12 or more points in those games while he’s averaged 17.2 points per game since Seattle’s Week 6 bye and San Francisco just allowed 142 yards to Sterling Shepard in their past game)
Bust: Marquise Goodwin (you’re playing him for hitting one play and the Seattle secondary is vulnerable now, but he and Beathard have connected on just 8-of-24 targets on the year so far), Garrett Celek (he had 24 percent of the team of the team target before the bye, but they also came attached to the best matchup a tight end could have. On a full week, he’s not an option)
Reasonable Return: Carlos Hyde (this is a game where his receptions carry him to RB2 status, despite his recent history rushing against Seattle, the Seahawks have melted the run recently, allowing 55.8 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields over their past seven games with an individual high of 54 yards over that span), C.J. Beathard (he’s gotten a bit better in each start so far and Seattle is no longer a clear avoid while Beathard has 29.5 rushing points over his five games and Seattle has allowed five different quarterbacks to run for 20 or more yards), Tyler Lockett / Paul Richardson (even with Wilson as hot as he is, neither of these receivers have been a WR3 over their past three games, but the matchup is strong enough to take a swing on either as a lower-end flex), J.D. McKissic (he’s been a flex in each of the past two games while the 49ers allow the most receiving points to running backs per game)
Broncos @ Raiders
| Denver | Rank | @ | Oakland | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spread | -5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 24.0 | ||
| 18.3 | 24 | Points/Gm | 20.4 | 20 |
| 25.9 | 27 | Points All./Gm | 24.7 | 21 |
| 67.3 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 59.1 | 31 |
| 59.3 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 8 |
| 41.3% | 19 | Rush% | 36.2% | 30 |
| 58.7% | 14 | Pass% | 63.8% | 3 |
| 43.8% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 45.0% | 26 |
| 56.2% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 55.0% | 7 |
- The Broncos are allowing a touchdown pass once every 14.1 pass attempts, the highest rate in the league.
- Denver has allowed three touchdown passes in three straight games for the first time since 2010, matching the longest streak in franchise history.
- Just 8.8 percent of the Oakland offensive plays have come from inside of the red zone, the lowest rate outside of the Jets (7.5 percent) on the season.
- In six career starts against Denver, Derek Carr has fished at the QB22 or lower five times with a high of QB17, passing for fewer than 200 yards in five of those six games.
- Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined to catch 31-of-64 targets (48.4 percent) for 298 yards and one touchdown in a combined seven games against Denver with both on the Raiders.
- Denver has scored a touchdown on 4-of-51 possessions (7.8 percent) on the road this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- Denver has scored just two touchdowns from outside of the red zone, the fewest in the league.
- Devontae Booker had season-highs in snaps (48) and routes run (28) Per Pro Football Focus, touches (19) and yards from scrimmage (98) in Week 11.
- Paxton Lynch targeted Emmanuel Sanders (29-of-82) on 35.4 percent of his passes last year and Demaryius Thomas on 25.6 percent (21 targets).
- The Raiders are the first team ever to fail to record an interception through their first 10 games of a season and their 10-game streak without an interception is the longest since the 1977 49ers.
Bust: DEN RBs (with the Broncos resetting their offense this week with a new coordinator and quarterback, we need a week to calibrate the split between Devontae Booker and C.J. Anderson, but if I needed a desperation flex, I would go with Booker against a defense that is 31st in receiving points per game allowed to backfields), Paxton Lynch (the matchup is as good as it could be as Oakland isn’t rushing the passer or forcing turnovers, but Lynch is coming off an injury and a long layoff while he was the QB25 and QB29 in his two starts as a rookie), Marshawn Lynch (he’s no use to you unless he falls into the end zone and Denver has allowed two backs to clear 55-yards rushing in a game this season), Amari Cooper / Michael Crabtree (the Broncos have allowed passing scores this year, but they’re still a tough draw for opposing wide receivers, ranking second in receptions and yardage allowed to opposing receivers on the season), Derek Carr (Denver has allowed a QB1 in three straight starts, but those quarterbacks threw 10 touchdowns on 199, 266 and 154 yards passing while Carr has thrown multiple touchdowns in one of his past seven games and finished higher than QB20 just once)
Reasonable Return: Emmanuel Sanders / Demaryius Thomas (in a small sample, Lynch favored Sanders a year ago, but Thomas has been the better and more consistent player this season. Still, play them both against an Oakland secondary that is 30th in points allowed per target to opposing wideouts), Jared Cook (opposing teams target their tight ends 27.5 percent of the time, which is the second highest rate in the league, while 36.2 percent of the receiving yards gained against Denver have been posted by tight ends, the highest share in the league)
Saints @ Rams
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | LA Rams | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 28.0 | ||
| 30.2 | 3 | Points/Gm | 30.3 | 2 |
| 19.6 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 18.6 | 6 |
| 65.0 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 62.9 | 19 |
| 60.1 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.8 | 20 |
| 46.0% | 9 | Rush% | 46.6% | 4 |
| 54.0% | 24 | Pass% | 53.4% | 29 |
| 40.8% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 42.6% | 19 |
| 59.2% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 57.4% | 14 |
- Since the Adrian Peterson trade, Mark Ingram is the highest scoring fantasy running back in points per game (22.2) and Alvin Kamara is the second (21.1) for all active running backs.
- The Rams are allowing 110.4 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, 29th in the league and rank 31st in rushing points allowed per game (16.4) to backfields.
- Kamara has double-digit points in eight straight games. Only Le’Veon Bell (nine) has a longer streak at the running back position.
- Kamara leads all running backs in percentage of runs to go for a first down (40.3 percent), runs to go five or more yards (50 percent) and runs to go for 10 or more yards (27.8 percent).
- Kamara is the first Saints running back to score a touchdown in four straight games since Darren Sproles in 2012.
- Only Antonio Brown and Mike Evans (21 games each) have more games with 50 or more receiving yards than Michael Thomas (20) since he entered the league and only Demaryius Thomas (21) has more games with five or more receptions than Thomas’ 20 over that span.
- 22.9 percent (14-of-61) of Cooper Kupp‘s targets have come from inside of the red zone --the highest rate for all wide receivers in the league-- but just five of those have come from inside of the 10-yard line.
- The Saints have allowed four 100-yard rushers, tied with the Chargers for the most in the league.
Trust: Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (I’d like to add something profound here, but there’s not much else to say here about how good each has been. The matchup is still strong on the road, just keep riding these guys), Todd Gurley (he’s been the best fantasy back of the year and the Saints have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of their past five games)
Reasonable Return: Drew Brees (some regression finally came for Brees last week, but it was the making of another ho-hum game for Brees until the final five minutes. The Rams have held both Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson to QB20 or lower weeks at home this season, but also could be missing multiple pieces of their secondary this week if Nickell Robey-Coleman and Kayvon Webster are unable to play), Michael Thomas (he’s been ultra-consistent, but has just been kept out of the end zone, which is inevitably going to change, but the Rams have also allowed just one WR1 on the season), Cooper Kupp (he’ll get a target bump with Robert Woods out this week and primarily runs out the slot, which has been the most problematic spot for the Saints defense), Sammy Watkins (with Woods out and the Saints preparing to be without both Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, Watkins has an opportunity to see his highest volume mixed with positive matchup on the season), Jared Goff (last week cemented him as a matchup play and this one wasn’t looking appealing on paper, but with the Saints now down multiple defenders in their secondary, Goff can be used even without his best receiver active this week at home), Ted Ginn (with all of the injuries on the back end for both teams, everyone is in play and Ginn is coming off a season-high six receptions)
Jaguars @ Cardinals
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Arizona | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | Spread | 4.5 | ||
| 21.3 | Implied Total | 16.8 | ||
| 24.5 | 8 | Points/Gm | 17.6 | 26 |
| 14.1 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 25.4 | 25 |
| 68.3 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 11 |
| 61.5 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.9 | 29 |
| 51.1% | 1 | Rush% | 35.6% | 31 |
| 48.9% | 32 | Pass% | 64.4% | 2 |
| 41.1% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 41.3% | 12 |
| 58.9% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 58.7% | 21 |
- The Jaguars are the only team in the league that has yet to allow multiple touchdown passes in multiple games this season.
- Larry Fitzgerald leads the league in routes run per game (41.3) per Pro Football Focus.
- Jacksonville has allowed 55.3 rushing yards per game since their Week 8 bye, the fewest in the league.
- Arizona ranks last in the league in percent of runs to gain five or more yards (25 percent) and 10 or more yards (6.5 percent).
- Since joining the Cardinals, Adrian Peterson leads the league in runs (30) that have failed to gain positive yardage.
- Opposing teams have run just five plays total from inside of the 5-yard line versus Jacksonville, the fewest in the league.
- Blake Bortles has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in nine of 10 games this season, the most in the league.
Bust: Marqise Lee (a floor option to begin with, he’ll be tasked with trying to beat Patrick Peterson all afternoon), Blake Bortles (he can tack on some rushing output and has mostly been careful with the football since he’s not throwing a lot, but he’s finished higher than QB15 just twice with multiple touchdown passes just once), Dede Westbrook (he’s still just a stash as he ran 21 routes last week, behind both Lee and Keelan Cole), Blaine Gabbert (unfortunately, his #RevengeGame comes when the Jaguars have the best defense in the NFL), Adrian Peterson (he’s had two top-10 weeks in perfect rushing climates while finishing outside of the top-40 in his other three games with Arizona and the Jaguars have righted the ship on their leaky run defense form earlier in the season), Larry Fitzgerald (the good news is that he’ll run most of his routes away from Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, but the bad news is that Aaron Colvin has been just as good in the slot as Jacksonville has allowed just three top-24 wideouts on the entire season)
Reasonable Return: Leonard Fournette (with surrounding concerns about his ankle, Fournette played his highest rate of snaps since Week 5 and had a season-high 30 touches. The matchup isn’t great, but not unbeatable. Arizona is eighth in the league in rushing yards allowed per game to backfields, but also has allowed 126 and 154 yards to the Houston and Rams backs in two of their past four games)
Packers @ Steelers
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Spread | -14 | ||
| 13.8 | Implied Total | 27.8 | ||
| 20.4 | 21 | Points/Gm | 22.7 | 14 |
| 23.0 | 18 | Points All./Gm | 16.5 | 2 |
| 62.3 | 22 | Plays/Gm | 65.4 | 10 |
| 62.8 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.3 | 2 |
| 37.9% | 25 | Rush% | 44.0% | 13 |
| 62.1% | 8 | Pass% | 56.0% | 20 |
| 45.2% | 28 | Opp. Rush % | 40.3% | 7 |
| 54.8% | 5 | Opp. Pass % | 59.7% | 26 |
- Since Week 6 with Brett Hundley under center, the Packers have scored on 25 percent of their possessions (13-of-52), 29th in the league over that span.
- Pittsburgh is allowing 1.6 offensive touchdowns per game, second fewest per game in the league.
- Davante Adams has 27.5 percent of the team targets (43), 28.1 percent of the team receptions (27) and 35.6 percent of the team receiving yardage (335) with Hundley under center.
- Just 18.2 percent of the yards gained against the Steelers over the past three weeks have been rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Steelers have rushed for just 76 yards per game over their past three games, 31st in the league.
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (he’s still lacking the big plays and had a season-low 12 rushing attempts last week, but Pittsburgh made up for that with a season-high 11 targets as his floor as he still cracked 100-yards from scrimmage on his fewest touches since Week 3), Antonio Brown (he crushed in an obvious spot last and this week is nearly just as good as Green Bay has struggled to stop any lead receivers and 68 percent of passing yards gained against Green Bay have been posted by wideouts, the third highest rate in the league), Ben Roethlisberger (he’s getting on track at the right time as he’s topped 15 points in three of his past four games while the Packers have allowed 297 or more passing yards to three of the past four quarterbacks they’ve faced)
Bust: Brett Hundley (outside of a few rushing points, there’s not a lot to like here as Hundley has been higher that QB19 just once), Jamaal Williams (he turned 22 touches into 95 yards last week, but things will be much tougher against a Steelers defense that hasn’t allowed a back to reach 70 yards from scrimmage since Week 6), Jordy Nelson(he’s had single-digit scoring in all four of Hundley’s starts), Martavis Bryant (with Smith-Schuster out, he’ll have an opportunity to have his best game since Week 2, but is still a complete dart throw)
Reasonable Return: Davante Adams (he’s the only Packer that survived the quarterback change, posting three straight top-30 weeks and the Steelers have allowed five top-20 receivers over their past three games)
Texans @ Ravens
| Houston | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spread | -8 | ||
| 15.0 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 26.7 | 6 | Points/Gm | 21.3 | 17 |
| 26.2 | 30 | Points All./Gm | 17.1 | 3 |
| 66.3 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 64.5 | 14 |
| 60.4 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 21 |
| 45.6% | 10 | Rush% | 44.5% | 11 |
| 54.5% | 23 | Pass% | 55.5% | 22 |
| 41.6% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 46.2% | 30 |
| 58.4% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 53.8% | 3 |
- Houston has allowed three of more touchdown passes in five games, the most in the league.
- Joe Flacco hasn’t thrown three touchdown passes in 14 straight starts, tied with Marcus Mariota for the longest active streak in the league.
- Danny Woodhead played 13 snaps in his return, but was targeted on 46 percent of those snaps, the highest rate for a running back last week.
- Alex Collins played a season-high 64 percent of the Baltimore snaps in Week 11.
- Collins has a touch on 64 percent of his snaps, the highest rate in the league.
- The Ravens have had three shutouts this season, the most by a team in a season since the 2003 Patriots.
- Baltimore is averaging 24 yards per possession (last in the league), but is allowing 24.7 yards per possession on defense, third in the league.
- DeAndre Hopkins leads all receivers in fourth quarter fantasy production, scoring 79.2 fantasy points (38.8 percent of his season total).
Trust: DeAndre Hopkins (he’s survived a major quarterback downgrade and elite cornerback matchups and still has cleared 17 points in each of the past three weeks since Deshaun Watson was lost for the season)
Bust: Joe Flacco (Houston is a prime target for us at this point in the season, but Flacco is strictly a DFS dart as he’s had a ton of soft matchups that have not elevated him to date as he’s yet to finish in the top half of quarterback scoring on the season), Danny Woodhead (he was used sparingly in his return and the game script worked against thrusting him into a large role, something that should hold up here while just once running back has had more than three receptions against Houston this season), Tom Savage (he’s essentially the sixth backup quarterback to face Baltimore on the season and they’ve abused all of them)
Reasonable Return: Jeremy Maclin / Mike Wallace (both are playable this week as the Texans have allowed seven top-36 receivers just over their past four games), Alex Collins (we always like backs attached to big home favorites, but there are some matchup concerns here with just two backs reaching 70 yards on the ground against Houston on the year), Bruce Ellington (With Will Fuller still expected to be absent on Sunday, he’s on the board as a floor option, averaging 20.8 percent of the team targets per game with Savage under center), Lamar Miller (with D’Onta Foreman now out for the season, he longer has to look in the rear-view mirror and is coming off a season-high 26 touches. He’s still a little risky given that he had 13 and 12 touches in two negative game scripts over the weeks prior, but he’s consistently found his way to 70-90 yards from scrimmage every week)
Context Key:
Trust = Player to outperform baseline expectations
Bust = Player to underperform baseline expectations
Reasonable Return = Baseline Play that won’t hurt you
**All Vegas Lines are taken from Yahoo listings on Tuesday Evenings
