The NFL Week 2 Worksheet

Week 1 was a mixed bag as studs overcame perceived subpar matchups while others left a lot of meat on the bone for a fantasy hopes, but we’re finally officially moving downhill. Early in the season is where we’re all most vulnerable and a chunk of what happened last week will be proven to be natural variance while others will be our seeds to the season’s first trends. That’s what we’re looking for in the Week 2 Worksheet as we break down all of this week’s matchups in a PPR light. As usual, the intent here isn’t to provide a linear start/sit guide for rosters, but a vehicle to provide a game by game table of analysis to provide a statistical snapshot for the weekend. Take that information in conjunction with your own feelings and apply it to your Daily games and lineup conundrums.

New York (AFC) vs. Buffalo

Jets	Rank	@	Bills	Rank
0		Spread	0
20.3		Implied Total	20.3
66.0	13	Plays/Gm	48.0	32
56.0	7	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.0	20
45.5%	11	Rush%	50.0%	3
54.5%	22	Pass%	50.0%	30
33.9%	7	Opp. Rush %	42.4%	19
66.1%	26	Opp. Pass %	57.6%	14

• Per Pro Football Focus, Tyrod Taylor‘s average depth of throw was just 5.7 yards in Week 1, 5.0 yards lower than his seasonal average in 2015 in which he had the third highest rate in the league.
• When these two teams met on Thursday Night last season, Taylor threw for his second lowest yardage total (158 yards) and his lowest yards per attempt mark (5.9 yards) on the season.
• Buffalo averaged just 3.3 yards per play in Week 1, the fewest in the league.
• LeSean McCoy has 20 or more touches in five of his past six games dating back to last year.
• In Week 1, Matt Forte out-snapped Bilal Powell 54 to 17 with 27 touches to Powell’s six.
• Forte has seen 20 percent of the New York pass attempts come his way, second at the position behind only James White (21 percent).
• The Jets allowed five passing plays of 25 or more yards last week, the most in the league. They allowed 2.1 per game in 2015.
• Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker caught just 26 percent of the Jets’ completions last week on 44 percent of the team targets. Last season, they combined for 52 percent of receptions on 51 percent of the targets.
• Decker now has 80 yards receiving or a touchdown in 17 consecutive games played.

Trust: Matt Forte (Forte looked great last week against a good defense while dominating snaps. One of the few backs who can churn out top-12 weeks without scoring touchdowns)

Bust: Sammy Watkins (Watkins is going to play through his troubling foot injury and he did give the Jets all kinds of fits in Week 17 last year with 136 yards on 11 receptions, but the Bills were a disaster on offense Week 1 and have a short week to patch those immediate holes), Tyrod Taylor (with Watkins an unknown at the moment, that puts Taylor’s deep ball in jeopardy and if the Bills protect like they did last week, a Jets team that got seven sacks against the Cincy offensive line is going to make it a long night), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Fitz was QB17 and QB23 in both meetings last year with five total interceptions), Bilal Powell (he was electric with his touches, but we need more of a foundation of usage to be established before considering him as a flex)

Reasonable Return: Eric Decker (Decker was more of a constant against these two teams a year ago than Marshall was and although he doesn’t bring a big ceiling to the table, his floor has been one of the best), Brandon Marshall (off a disappointing opener, we know the usage won’t dry up), LeSean McCoy (the Bills need to be a lot better up front for him to get to his ceiling, but we know the usage is secure and he did rough up the Jets last season in the lone meeting in which he was active)

New Orleans vs. New York (NFC)

Saints	Rank	@	Giants	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
24.0		Implied Total	28.5
65.0	16	Plays/Gm	54.0	29
64.0	15	Opp. Plays/Gm	75.0	30
33.9%	28	Rush%	44.4%	12
66.1%	5	Pass%	55.6%	21
40.6%	15	Opp. Rush %	40.0%	14
59.4%	18	Opp. Pass %	60.0%	19

• When these two teams met last season in Week 8, they combined for 101 points scored, the second most in NFL history.
• New Orleans was 27th in scoring on the road last season at 18.6 points per game.
• Drew Brees was a top-10 scorer in just one road game last season, throwing just nine touchdowns away from home in seven games.
• Brees has thrown for 300 or more yards in five straight games, the longest ongoing streak in the league. It’s the fifth such streak of Brees’ career (the next closest is Peyton Manning at three).
• Mark Ingram only played 29 snaps in Week 1 (42 percent). He played 63 percent of the Saints snaps in 2015 with an average of 44.6 per game.
• Saints wide receivers combined for 76.3 fantasy points last week, the most in the league.
• Coby Fleener played 81 percent of the Saints offensive snaps, but drew just four of the team’s 39 targets.
• New York allowed the most receptions to tight ends in Week 1 (10) after allowing the most the most receptions to tight ends in 2015 (101).
• The Giants allowed 6.1 yards per play in 2015, but allowed just 4.4 yards per play in Week 1 (5th).
• Odell Beckham hasn’t gone back to back games without a touchdown in the same season since Weeks 10 and 11 in 2014.
• The Saints allowed 486 yards on defense in Week 1 (31st), a category they ranked 31st in during 2015 (413.4 yards per game).

Trust: Eli Manning/Odell Beckham (you were already going all in on this pair even if Delvin Breaux was going to be active), Willie Snead (it’s another week where Snead draws a good matchup on paper as the Giants allowed eight receptions to Cole Beasley)

Bust: Mark Ingram (Ingram may not have the three down security that he held last year and the Giants front was everything they paid for against the run Week 1. You may be looking for a layup scoring opportunity only here), Travaris Cadet (he had seven targets last week and just missed another touchdown reception. This role has proven valuable before, but I’m actually placing a small shred of hope for Fleener getting targets in this one after the wideouts), Michael Thomas (had a solid opening game, but it also came along with Brees’ huge game while not quite being fantasy worthy)

Reasonable Return: Drew Brees (I’m not even entertaining looking for another option as Brees isn’t necessarily poor on the road rather than he’s just magical at home in comparison, but I always start with Brees as a lower end QB1 when on the road), Brandin Cooks (Cooks still had two top-10 scoring weeks on the road last year even when Brees didn’t score himself, but also had six games outside of the top-20 while away from home), Coby Fleener (the offseason reports rolled right into his Week 1 performance, but I just can’t turn away from him this week against the New York linebackers and safeties), Shane Vereen (had eight receptions in last year’s meeting on his way to an RB4 scoring week), Rashad Jennings (Vereen is a thorn for his totals in games where he doesn’t score, but with a team total this high, get him out there), Sterling Shepard/Victor Cruz (both have seen equal usage last week and when playing the Saints, it’s a smoke ‘em if you got ‘em situation)

Tennessee vs. Detroit

Titans	Rank	@	Lions	Rank
5.5		Spread	-5.5
20.8		Implied Total	26.3
65.0	15	Plays/Gm	64.0	18
61.0	12	Opp. Plays/Gm	68.0	24
33.9%	27	Rush%	37.5%	23
66.2%	6	Pass%	62.5%	10
45.9%	24	Opp. Rush %	27.9%	3
54.1%	9	Opp. Pass %	72.1%	30

• Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in in seven consecutive games, the longest current streak in the league.
• Over those seven games, Stafford has completed 73.4 percent of his pass attempts with just one interception.
• Marvin Jones led the Lions with 10 targets in Week 1 (27 percent of the team total).
• The last time that Golden Tate went over 80 yards receiving in a game was Week 13 of 2014.
• Theo Riddick led all backs with double digit touches in points per touch (2.32) last week.
• Ameer Abdullah ranked third at 1.35 points per touch.
• Tennessee allowed just 6.3 points to running backs last week, the fewest in the league.
• DeMarco Murray played 50 snaps to Derrick Henry‘s 21 in Week 1.
• Tajae Sharpe led the Tennessee wide receiver group in snap count at 64 followed by Harry Douglas (37), Rishard Matthews (35) and Andre Johnson (24).
• Sharpe’s seven receptions were the most ever for a Titans rookie in Week 1 dating back to the days when they were the Houston Oilers.
• Delanie Walker saw just 11.9 percent of the team’s targets after seeing 24.5 percent of the targets in 2015.
• The Lions allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends last week after being tied for allowing the most to the position in 2015 (12).

Trust: Matthew Stafford (he’s getting the ball out of his hands and to guys making plays with high end volume), Marvin Jones (he was the favorite target last week and the only one that will get targets downfield while Tennessee let Stefon Diggs behind them on a few occasions last week), Delanie Walker (last week was a bad matchup for him heading in while this one sets up for a bounce back)

Bust: Ameer Abdullah (he looked great last week, but will be facing a much better front seven and his lone scoring opportunity also coincided with Riddick being in the locker room while Dwayne Washington got the lone goal line opportunity), Derrick Henry (his long catch and run made the highlights, but he’s still more of a complement than in a timeshare to start)

Reasonable Return: Theo Riddick (asking for another two touchdowns is wishful thinking, but Riddick had more of a role in the rushing game than last year and already was a locked in for flex floor status), Golden Tate (Tate is basically Jarvis Landry without the full on funneling of double digit targets weekly), DeMarco Murray (those may be the only two receiving touchdowns he has all season, but Murray cemented that he’s the lead back and has security as a pass catcher when scripts go off course), Marcus Mariota (he was dreadful in reality last week and still was the QB15 in fantasy), Tajae Sharpe (not sure where the touchdowns will come from, but the Titans have clearly told us that he’s their primary receiver), Eric Ebron (had no rust last week and Tennessee gave up a modest 4/65 line to a much less athletic tight end last weekend)

Dallas vs. Washington

Cowboys	Rank	@	Washington	Rank
3		Spread	-3
21.0		Implied Total	24.0
75.0	3	Plays/Gm	55.0	27
54.0	5	Opp. Plays/Gm	68.0	22
40.0%	19	Rush%	21.8%	32
60.0%	14	Pass%	78.2%	1
44.4%	21	Opp. Rush %	44.1%	20
55.6%	12	Opp. Pass %	55.9%	13

• Dez Bryant now has a 48.4 percent catch rate while averaging 6.2 yards per target on 132 non-Tony Romo targets in his career.
• Those numbers are at 62.9 percent and 9.1 yards on targets from Romo.
• Bryant hasn’t had more than five receptions in a game since Week 15 of 2014.
• Dak Prescott‘s .202 passing points per attempt were ahead of only Case Keenum last week (league average was .418).
• Ezekiel Elliott had 79 percent (15 of 19) of the Dallas rushing attempts in the first half and 45 percent (five of 11) in the second half.
• DeSean Jackson‘s weekly ranks in his three games facing Dallas while in Washington have been WR14, WR17 and WR17.
• Kirk Cousins was just one of two quarterbacks entering last week (Russell Wilson) to throw a touchdown pass in 16 straight games before failing to throw one Week 1.
• Chris Thompson out-snapped Matt Jones 39 to 19 as Washington trailed for 63 percent of their snaps and for all 35 of their second half snaps.
• Washington allowed 4.8 yards per carry in Week 1 on interior runs (guard to guard), after ranking 29th in league (4.5 YPC) on those runs last season.

Trust: DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed (he still stacked opportunity, but drives stalled out before the red zone), Ezekiel Elliott (the matchup gets a lot lighter this weekend against a Washington front that was just decimated by DeAngelo Williams in the second half last week)

Bust: Dez Bryant (even if he catches that touchdown last week, he’s still in WR4 status for scoring as the targets just aren’t there. Despite seeing Bashaud Breeland on Monday night, I’m not sure Washington is a spot where he’ll see a ton of looks as well), Dak Prescott (Cole Beasley and Dez Bryant should’ve had touchdowns for him, but the game plan will likely be very safe again and Dallas had no interest in using him as a runner a week ago), Cole Beasley (I don’t see Dallas throwing 45 times again as they should run it better. If targets are squeezed, I trust Witten holding onto them the most here)

Reasonable Return: Kirk Cousins (play volume is always a concern when facing Dallas, but they also allowed a touchdown once every 9.3 pass attempts in Week 1), Chris Thompson (the Giants found success using Shane Vereen last week who ended up as RB34 and Washington should do the same with Thompson), Matt Jones (if you want to make a play on matchup and projected game script, this is one of the few weeks where it looks like those things may line up for using him), Jason Witten (Washington should attract more interior targets than perimeter ones as a defense and that’s exactly where Prescott wanted to live last week)

Kansas City vs. Houston

Chiefs	Rank	@	Texans	Rank
3		Spread	-3
20.3		Implied Total	23.3
70.0	6	Plays/Gm	72.0	5
69.0	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	54.0	4
27.1%	31	Rush%	48.6%	4
72.9%	2	Pass%	51.4%	29
46.4%	25	Opp. Rush %	37.0%	9
53.6%	8	Opp. Pass %	63.0%	24

• The 28 rushing attempts for Lamar Miller last week were a career high, after reaching just 20 attempts two times during his time in Miami.
• The Chiefs allowed 155 rushing yards in Week 1 after allowing just 95.7 per game in 2015 (6th).
• Will Fuller had eight targets 15 yards or further downfield, the most in the league Week 1.
• 78 percent of Brock Osweiler‘s passing yardage was before yards after the catch, second to only Jay Cutler (82 percent) Week 1.
• Charcandrick West played the same amount of snaps as Spencer Ware in Week 1 (34), but Ware out-touched West 18 to nine.
• Ware’s seven receptions and eight targets were both higher than his totals for the entire season in 2015.
• The Texans have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing tight ends since allowing two to Travis Kelce in Week 1 last season.
• Per Pro Football Focus, no player ran more routes last weekend than Jeremy Maclin (52).
• The 34 completions and 48 pass attempts by Alex Smith last week were both new career highs.
• Houston has allowed one top-12 scoring quarterback over their past 10 games played, with those quarterbacks averaging a QB23 weekly finish.

Trust: Lamar Miller (the Chiefs defense was ravaged on the ground by a team that couldn’t run at all a season ago and while the Houston offensive line is a concern still, Miller showed the type of floor he’ll have in this offense), DeAndre Hopkins (with more targets to spread around in this offense, Hopkins will have games like last week, but Marcus Peters isn’t daunting as far as limiting fantasy options)

Bust: Alex Smith (Kansas City has already beaten Houston twice on the road in just about the past calendar year, so there’s not much gained for the Texans defense, but I doubt Smith is pressed into another career high inducing script again), Brock Osweiler (the Chiefs defense was a tale of two halves last weekend, or perhaps just a Keenan Allen injury, but I still expect them to be better on the back end than Chicago was)

Reasonable Return: Spencer Ware (much tougher paper play this week, but he showcased what he could do if his touches were limited and also what would happen to him if the game script went completely away from the run), Travis Kelce/Jeremy Maclin (the targets only have so far to go in this offense, but tempering expectations in this matchup), Will Fuller (all he’s done so far through college, preseason and the first week of real NFL action is that he knows how to score touchdowns)

Miami vs. New England

Dolphins	Rank	@	Patriots	Rank
6.5		Spread	-6.5
17.5		Implied Total	24.0
53.0	30	Plays/Gm	66.0	14
78.0	32	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.0	9
37.7%	22	Rush%	47.0%	6
62.3%	11	Pass%	53.0%	27
41.0%	16	Opp. Rush %	32.2%	4
59.0%	17	Opp. Pass %	67.8%	29

• Jarvis Landry has double digit targets in five consecutive games dating back to last year, the longest streak in the league.
• Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 300-yards or more in three consecutive games facing the Patriots and four of his past five, but has gone over 14 points in just one of his four career games in New England.
• Kenny Stills was the only wide receiver outside of Odell Beckham to play 100 percent of the team snaps in Week 1.
• In Week 1 the Patriots had six players with 4-7 targets and four with 40-70 receiving yards.
• 70.8 percent of Arian Foster‘s scoring stemmed from receiving in Week 1. 73.6 percent of his scoring was through receiving in 2015, a career high.
• LeGarrette Blount had 71 percent of the New England rushing attempts, a mark he hit only three times all of last season.

Trust: Julian Edelman (he was a favorite target a week ago early on in what was thought to be a tougher matchup while Miami had trouble checking Doug Baldwin a week ago), LeGarrette Blount (totally missed on last week’s script ending up in Blount’s favor so hoping I don’t go 0-2 to start off as he should see plenty more carries this week)

Bust: Ryan Tannehill, Martellus Bennett (was an extended offensive lineman last weekend rather than a receiver), Jimmy Garoppolo (he played a great real life game, but was still just a mid-QB2 for fantasy purposes), James White (I see a similar split for the Patriots backs as last week, but if I’m wrong about that again, then White will find value)

Reasonable Return: Arian Foster (he’s shown for two years running that his receiving ability keeps him in RB2 status with room for more if you get anything from him on the ground or in the touchdown department), Jarvis Landry (New England can be beaten with receivers on the interior as evidence of Larry Fitzgerald a week ago, but Landry still only managed to come up with WR28 and WR30 scoring weeks against the Patriots a year ago), Chris Hogan (the overall targets may not be here to support week to week viability, but as long as this offensive line requires one of the tight ends to stay tight, then you could do worse as a WR3/flex play), Rob Gronkowski (status pending, the Patriots spread the ball around a lot last weekend to where even if he does go, he may not be funneled targets)

Baltimore vs. Cleveland

Ravens	Rank	@	Browns	Rank
-7		Spread	7
24.8		Implied Total	17.8
66.0	12	Plays/Gm	50.0	31
48.0	1	Opp. Plays/Gm	73.0	29
42.4%	14	Rush%	42.0%	15
57.6%	19	Pass%	58.0%	18
50.0%	30	Opp. Rush %	46.6%	26
50.0%	3	Opp. Pass %	53.4%	7

• In a true split, Justin Forsett played 50 percent of the snaps with Terrance West playing on 44 percent. West had 14 touches to Forsett’s 13.
• Baltimore’s wide receiver target breakdown was Steve Smith (9), Mike Wallace (6), Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken (2 each).
• In his first game since Week 3 of 2014, Dennis Pitta played 82 percent of the team snaps, with Crockett Gillmore at 44 percent and Maxx Williams at 19 percent.
• Joe Flacco has 30 or more pass attempts in 16 straight games, the longest ongoing streak in the league.
• Flacco has averaged just 11.9 points per game in seven games on the road against Cleveland, never throwing for more than 250 yards in any of those games.
• Isaiah Crowell out-snapped Duke Johnson 31 to 24 and out-touched him 14 to six while the Browns trailed for 100 percent of their offensive plays.
• Gary Barnidge‘s weekly finishes in games in which Josh McCown threw double digit passes in 2015: TE2, TE4, TE3 (vs BAL), TE5, TE5, TE6, TE10 (vs BAL).
• Barnidge led the NFL in routes per game in 2015 at 36.9, but ran only 29 in Week 1, which was tied for 14th at the position per Pro Football Focus.
• In those same games, Duke Johnson averaged 5.4 receptions per game as opposed to 2.6 otherwise and was a top-30 scorer all seven of those games as opposed to two top-30 scoring weeks the other nine games.

Trust: Joe Flacco (despite the career road struggles here, Cleveland made Carson Wentz look savvy even after he missed nearly the entire preseason),Mike Wallace (he showed he still has the long speed and will be running roughly 75 percent of his routes against Jamar Taylor and Tramon Williams)

Bust: Terrance West/Justin Forsett (as a whole, they have a good setup, but they both may end up cannibalizing each other. If I was really thirsty for chasing a touchdown, West could find the paint this week), Isaiah Crowell (a short touchdown and some final garbage time draw plays really masked what could’ve been little to nothing), Josh McCown (the Ravens defense looked healthy, creating tons of pressure a week ago. While the Bills are far from a great offense to suggest they’re a defense to be feared on any level, the Browns are far from an offensive juggernaut themselves), Kamar Aiken (you have to be concerned by Aiken since last season he was elevated by being the only passing option and this past week was the short straw behind Smith and Wallace)

Reasonable Return: Steve Smith (he looked like a 37-year old player coming off of a major injury, but the targets were there and the Browns should be a weekly target for those involved in the opposing passing game), Gary Barnidge/Duke Johnson (both definitely get new life now with McCown starting, but we have already seen the potential volume drop in Cleveland compared to a year ago show itself Week 1)

San Francisco vs. Carolina

49ers	Rank	@	Panthers	Rank
13		Spread	-13
16.3		Implied Total	29.3
77.0	2	Plays/Gm	68.0	8
60.0	11	Opp. Plays/Gm	57.0	8
54.6%	1	Rush%	47.1%	5
45.5%	32	Pass%	52.9%	28
38.3%	13	Opp. Rush %	50.9%	31
61.7%	20	Opp. Pass %	49.1%	2

• Kelvin Benjamin was targeted on 34.5 percent of his routes in Week 1. The next closest Carolina receiver was Devin Funchess at 17.7 percent and he was last in snaps in route.
• Last season, the 49ers allowed 155.8 rushing yards per game on the road (last in the league) which was 59 more yards per game than they allowed at the home, the largest gap in the league.
• San Francisco allowed 19.9 points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the road in 2015 as opposed to 13.7 at home.
• Carolina allowed 4.2 adjusted yards per attempt passing in Week 1, the second lowest in the league. They led the league in that category in 2015 with a 6.2 AY/A mark.
• Blaine Gabbert scrambled on 12.5 percent of his drop backs, the highest rate in the league Week 1.
• Jeremy Kerley led all 49ers players with 11 targets, a 31.4 percent team share.
• The Panthers allowed 5.1 yards per carry last week (30th) after allowing 3.9 yards per carry in 2015 (7th).
• All 23 of Carlos Hyde‘s rushing attempts were from the shotgun or pistol after having 54 percent of his carries last season come with a quarterback under center.

Trust: Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen (fire up the entire core of the Panthers in this one with Carolina coming off of a loss, at home with extended rest and facing a West Coast team traveling on a short week for an early start)

Bust: All 49ers (you’re only entertaining using Carlos Hyde here anyways, but without the two scores a week ago, his line wasn’t overly endearing to the point where you’re supremely confident in this spot)

Reasonable Return: Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn (the secondary Panthers are in play, but being so early in the season it will be hard to vault them over any regular starters on your roster outside of the deepest of leagues)

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh

Bengals	Rank	@	Steelers	Rank
3		Spread	-3
22.8		Implied Total	25.8
56.0	26	Plays/Gm	68.0	9
66.0	19	Opp. Plays/Gm	55.0	6
33.9%	26	Rush%	44.1%	13
66.1%	7	Pass%	55.9%	20
45.5%	22	Opp. Rush %	21.8%	1
54.6%	11	Opp. Pass %	78.2%	32

• In A.J. Green‘s past five meetings with the Steelers, he’s averaged 9.0 receptions for 129.8 yards on 14.4 targets for 25.2 fantasy points per game.
• In those games, he’s finished as the WR14, WR2, WR22, WR3 and WR6 for that given week.
• Green saw 43.4 percent of the Bengal targets, the highest share of team targets for any player in the league.
• In two games against the Steelers last season, Jeremy Hill total 25 touches for 92 yards.
• The Bengals have allowed just one tight end to score a touchdown since the start of 2015, the fewest in the league.
• Antonio Brown has just one top-12 scoring week over the past three seasons facing the Bengals, but also just one outside of the top-24.
• In two games facing the Bengals last season, Ben Roethlisberger averaged 4.6 adjusted yards per attempt.
• Roethlisberger’s ranks those weeks were QB24 and QB25.
• DeAngelo Williams’ nine targets were the most of all running backs in Week 1.
• Over his past 10 full games with Le’Veon Bell, Williams has averaged 93.6 rushing yards on 19.9 rushing attempts with 13 rushing touchdowns. He had been a top-5 fantasy scorer in six of those 10 games.
• Williams had 86.7 percent of the Steeler rushing attempts, the highest rate for any running back Week 1.

Trust: A.J. Green (the Steelers are giving to wideouts and Green looks poised to be push 200 targets this season), Antonio Brown (there could be a dozen data points that showed Brown wasn’t a prestige play and I would still ignore them at this stage), Ben Roethlisberger (despite last year, I always like Ben at home and last season he was coming off of injury when these two teams played in Pittsburgh. Plus the Bengals secondary isn’t quite as strong as a year ago), DeAngelo Williams (even on a shorter week and heavy usage, Williams still is a locked in RB1 with Le’Veon Bell out. Matt Forte gashed the Bengals a week ago and Williams himself was an RB1 facing them in both games a year ago.)

Bust: Jeremy Hill (another week where you’re sweating out a touchdown or not as I see the Bengals forced pass heavy again), Giovanni Bernard (he clearly doesn’t have as large of a role as wished and turned in RB30 and RB45 weeks against the Steelers a year ago), Jesse James (just four yards per target a week ago and the Bengals pose a much tougher matchup for tight ends)

Reasonable Return: Andy Dalton (Dalton was a bust on the road last season in Pittsburgh, but I don’t see the Bengals running it well again for the second straight week), Brandon LaFell (quietly turned in a 4/91 line last week and the script should skew pass heavy this week once again), Eli Rogers (without the fluky touchdown grab he would’ve been more of a WR4/flex type, but you don’t mind those guys when they’re attached to strong offenses)

Tampa Bay vs. Arizona

Buccaneers	Rank	@	Cardinals	Rank
6.5		Spread	-6.5
21.8		Implied Total	28.3
61.0	21	Plays/Gm	59.0	24
64.0	16	Opp. Plays/Gm	66.0	21
45.9%	10	Rush%	32.2%	29
54.1%	23	Pass%	67.8%	4
34.4%	8	Opp. Rush %	47.0%	27
65.6%	25	Opp. Pass %	53.0%	6

• Jameis Winston has now thrown for 275 or more yards in four straight starts (averaging 316 yards per game) after hitting that mark in just two of his first 13 games played.
• In 2015, Doug Martin averaged 18.7 points per game in wins last season as opposed to 13.0 per game in losses as he rushed for 37 fewer yards per game in losses.
• Austin Seferian-Jenkins played just 18 snaps Week 1, behind Luke Stocker (47), Cameron Brate (40) and Brandon Myers (23).
• The Buccaneers allowed .548 passing points per attempt in Week 1 (8th highest) after allowing .491 over 2015 (6th highest).
• David Johnson‘s past five full game weekly finishes has been RB7, RB8, RB1, RB7 and RB6.
• Over those five games, Johnson has averaged 146.2 yards from scrimmage per game.
• Tampa Bay hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3 of last season despite seeing the fourth most running back carries over that span.
• Tampa Bay allowed just .24 rushing points attempt in Week 1, the second lowest in the league (Tennessee .23).
• Larry Fitzgerald had both Arizona targets from the 10-yard and line this past week. Last year, he had 12 targets from the 10-yard and line while Michael Floyd and John Brown combined for nine.

Trust: David Johnson (his all-purpose game can erase just about negative you can stir up), Carson Palmer (the Bucs could be one the best passing funnels for fantasy), Michael Floyd (the targets were there last week despite a tough matchup and things get lighter this weekend), Larry Fitzgerald (he’s fresh at the start of the season, John Brown is still being eased in and Tampa Bay will force the pass)

Bust: Vincent Jackson (he could see targets if Peterson is on Evans, but Jackson has loads of opportunities over the past few seasons and provided minimal return), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (the talent is there, but the opportunity has yet to fully open up)

Reasonable Return: Jameis Winston (Winston looks like he’s ready to make the jump as a passer and this next string of games should show us that. A Patriots roster missing key pieces moved the ball just fine against the Arizona defense a week ago), Mike Evans (he could’ve had two touchdowns a week ago, but will run into Patrick Peterson a bit in this one. If he finds Brandon Williams at all, wheels up), John Brown (he looked behind and getting re-acclimated after missing the majority of the preseason, but I’d entertain using him as a WR3 if I like my first two receivers), Doug Martin (hopefully the receptions he had last week are a reoccurring trend, but I’d like to see how he’s handled when facing negative game script as last year he was phased out in those spots), Charles Sims (he’s been a top-30 scorer in six straight games dating back to last year)

Seattle vs. Los Angeles

Seahawks	Rank	@	Rams	Rank
n/a		Spread	n/a
n/a		Implied Total	n/a
78.0	1	Plays/Gm	60.0	22
53.0	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	77.0	31
41.0%	17	Rush%	38.3%	20
59.0%	16	Pass%	61.7%	13
37.7%	11	Opp. Rush %	54.6%	32
62.3%	22	Opp. Pass %	45.5%	1

• Christine Michael played 52 snaps to 22 for Thomas Rawls Week 1.
• Rawls touched the ball on 68 percent of his snaps, the highest for all running backs last week.
• Russell Wilson had a career high 43 pass attempts last week, but also his lowest yards per attempt (6.0) total since Week 11, 2014.
• Just 4.7 percent of those attempts (two) where 15 or more yards in the air. 17.8 percent of Wilson’s throws were that far downfield or further in 2015.
• With his WR7 week, Doug Baldwin has been a top-16 scorer in seven of his past nine games.
• Case Keenum‘s .034 passing points per attempt were the lowest of Week 1.
• Tavon Austin was just the fourth player to have fewer than 15 receiving yards on 12 or more targets since targets were tracked back in 1992.
• Over his past nine games, Todd Gurley has carried 152 times for 580 yards (3.8 yards per carry) while besting 4.0 yards per carry in a game just three times.

Trust: Doug Baldwin (Jeremy Kerley looked like a viable target against the Rams last week and Baldwin has seven or more receptions in three of his past four versus the Rams)

Bust: Thomas Rawls/Christine Michael (Michael didn’t seize the opportunity he had last week, leaving the door open for Rawls to leapfrog him sooner than later, but the Rams were still solid versus the run on Monday night, allowing 107 yards on 33 carries), Tyler Lockett (he turned eight targets into just 17 yards and the last time these teams met he turned seven targets into just 33 yards), Todd Gurley (he was solid when these teams met at the end of last season, but this Rams offense was completely destroyed by a defense we expected to be in the bottom third of the league), Russell Wilson (Holding him to QB1 standards, I have to place him here. Wilson was far from himself last week even before his foot/ankle injury and if he loses the ability to use his legs it hurts the entire offense. I would have no issue taking a week and getting a replacement and insuring that he’s truly himself)

Atlanta vs. Oakland

Falcons	Rank	@	Raiders	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
22.5		Implied Total	27.0
64.0	17	Plays/Gm	64.0	19
61.0	13	Opp. Plays/Gm	65.0	17
34.4%	25	Rush%	40.6%	18
65.6%	8	Pass%	59.4%	15
45.9%	23	Opp. Rush %	33.9%	6
54.1%	10	Opp. Pass %	66.2%	27

• Devonta Freeman played 55 percent of the offensive snaps, his lowest full game total since Week 1 of last season (36 percent).
• Over Freeman’s past eight full games, he’s carried 121 times for 324 yards (2.7 YPC) with two rushing touchdowns.
• Coleman’s 95 receiving yards were the most by an Atlanta running back since Warrick Dunn‘s 129 in Week 12, 2003.
• Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 200 passing yards in 40 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league and third longest ever (Dan Fouts, 45).
• Oakland allowed 7.8 yards per play in Week 1, the most in the league.
• Amari Cooper (WR9) and Michael Crabtree (WR17) were both top-24 scoring receivers last week. They were both top-24 scorers together in just three games all of 2015.
• Latavius Murray had 71.9 percent of the Oakland rushing attempts and 73.2 percent of the Oakland rushing yards in 2015 (both highs for running backs). He had 53.8 percent of the attempts and 35.3 percent of the rushing yards in Week 1.
• Oakland allowed 76.3 points to wide receivers last week (the most in the league) after allowing 34.6 points per game to position (14th) in 2015.
• Atlanta has just 19 sacks as a defense since the start of last season, the fewest in the NFL.

Trust: Derek Carr (three rushing scores capped Carr last week, but Atlanta allowed a touchdown pass once every 8.3 attempts a week ago), Amari Cooper (Desmond Trufant didn’t follow anyone last week and Cooper is a similar set up as last week), Julio Jones (the lingering ankle issues are there, but you aren’t too sheepish after how Oakland’s secondary performed a week ago)

Bust: Devonta Freeman (the silver lining is he out-touched Coleman six to one in the red zone, but Freeman was a player largely reliant on volume and opportunity over the back half of 2015, something that is now compromised, pushing him into RB2 status), Tevin Coleman (you’re going to need to see the Atlanta running game do more as a backbone before relying on Coleman rolling over the type of receiving totals he put out in Week 1), Jacob Tamme (he popped up in a few weeks last season in a similar fashion as he did in Week 1, but is more of a floor play option with low touchdown appeal)

Reasonable Return: Latavius Murray (Atlanta has been gouged by pass catching backs since the start of last season and Murray may have lost those opportunities while not being the workhorse he was last season. Still, as home favorites, the script could skew favorable to lean on the run), Matt Ryan (Ryan only threw nine touchdowns on the road a year ago, but he’s already started to make good on his expected touchdown recoil this year), Michael Crabtree (Atlanta still only allowed the 21^st most points to wideouts in Week 1 after allowing the second fewest in 2015), Mohamed Sanu (a blown coverage turned a very modest day into a top-10 one, but the target tree is thin for Atlanta)

Jacksonville vs. San Diego

Jaguars	Rank	@	Chargers	Rank
3		Spread	-3
22.0		Implied Total	25.0
68.0	10	Plays/Gm	69.0	7
60.0	10	Opp. Plays/Gm	70.0	27
38.2%	21	Rush%	46.4%	8
61.8%	12	Pass%	53.6%	25
41.7%	17	Opp. Rush %	27.1%	2
58.3%	16	Opp. Pass %	72.9%	31

• Danny Woodhead out snapped Melvin Gordon 50 to 23 in the game and out carried him 9 to 5 in the second half last week.
• Woodhead’s 16 rushing attempts were a career high.
• Philip Rivers averaged 89.4 fewer passing yards and 8.3 fewer fantasy points per game last season without Keenan Allen active.
• Rivers was a top-10 scorer just once last season after Allen went down and it was as QB4 against the Jaguars in which he threw a season-high four touchdowns.
• San Diego wide receiver snaps outside of Allen: Travis Benjamin (60), Dontrelle Inman (59) and Tyrell Williams (44).
• T.J. Yeldon had eight runs go for zero or negative yardage (38.1 percent), the highest rate for running backs with five or more carries Week 1.
• 86.2 percent of the Jacksonville yardage Week 1 was through the air, the most in the league. They had the 6th highest passing yardage dependency in 2015 (73.6 percent).
• The Chargers have allowed just three top-12 scoring wide receivers since the start of last season, the fewest in the league.
• The Chargers allowed 94 yards (second most) on 11 targets (third) to tight ends last week.
• When these two teams met last season, Julius Thomas was the TE1, catching nine of 10 targets for 116 yards and a score.

Trust: Blake Bortles (he threw for 329 yards when these teams met a year ago and San Diego has little to no pass rush to make Bortles uncomfortable), Julius Thomas (San Diego still makes opposing receivers work, funneling action to tight ends and backs out of the backfield), Antonio Gates (with Allen out, Gates should see trickle down and the Jacksonville linebackers can be exploited by a mid-range passer like Rivers. Gates caught two touchdowns in the meeting between these teams a year ago)

Bust: Allen Hurns (I’m expecting Thomas and Yeldon to be contributors this week and for Jacksonville to try and scheme Allen Robinson away from Jason Verrett), Melvin Gordon (he had no passing game involvement a week ago and lost carries with a lead to Woodhead, while Jacksonville is good defending the run), Tyrell Williams (expecting Gates and Woodhead to lead the way for the Chargers, plus Inman and Benjamin contributing, I don’t see the available targets to bank on for Williams. You’re looking for splash plays)

Reasonable Return: Philip Rivers (the Jaguars secondary is improved from the complete pushover it was a year ago, but the intermediate targets here in Woodhead, Gates and Inman can be effective), Dontrelle Inman (he’s more of a possession floor option, but turned in a WR22 performance against Jacksonville a year ago), Danny Woodhead (I don’t know what to make of his rushing usage last week, but he averaged a target more per game last season after Allen was injured), Allen Robinson (his target share was the second highest for any receiver last week and that won’t be evaporating anytime soon, but I always start out with WR2 expectations for wideouts against San Diego), T.J. Yeldon (even without a strong running performance, Yeldon can do enough in the passing game this week), Travis Benjamin (Benjamin seen six targets in the second half last week, but Rivers didn’t attempt single throw 15 yards or further downfield)

Indianapolis vs. Denver

Colts	Rank	@	Broncos	Rank
6		Spread	-6
19.8		Implied Total	25.8
68.0	11	Plays/Gm	57.0	25
64.0	14	Opp. Plays/Gm	68.0	25
27.9%	30	Rush%	50.9%	2
72.1%	3	Pass%	49.1%	31
37.5%	10	Opp. Rush %	47.1%	28
62.5%	23	Opp. Pass %	52.9%	5

• Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ran 22 and 29 routes in Week 1 after averaging 37.1 and 36.0 per game in 2015.
• C.J. Anderson carried 14 times for 48 yards on interior runs in Week 1 (3.4 YPC), while rushing six times for 44 yards (7.3) YPC off either tackle or end.
• The Colts allowed 5.1 yards per carry off of either tackle or end (28th) last week after ranking 20th in 2015 (4.7 YPC) on those runs.
• Trevor Siemian was one of only two quarterbacks not to attempt a single pass further than 15 yards downfield in Week 1 (the other was Philip Rivers).
• Denver allowed 157 rushing yards last week (31st), but only 83 of those were to running backs (18th).
• Colts tight ends combined to catch three touchdown passes last week after scoring just five as a team in 2015.
• 29.8 percent of Andrew Luck‘s throws were 15 yards or further downfield in Week 1, the highest rate for any quarterback.
• Luck has faced Denver in the regular season in each of the past three season’s finishing as the QB1, QB3 and QB8 in those games.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Philip Dorsett’s 20.8 average depth of target (aDOT) ranked third behind Will Fuller (22.2) and Alshon Jeffery (22.2) for receivers that have seen six or more looks in Week 1.
• Donte Moncrief averages 14.4 points per game over his past eight games with Luck, but 41.6 percent of his points over that span have come from touchdowns.

Trust: C.J. Anderson (between Anderson’s and the Colts’ defensive performances from a week ago, I wouldn’t push back on Anderson being the top play at the position this week in a home game as a favorite)

Bust: Trevor Siemian (if we’re expecting Anderson to do well, that means Siemian won’t be asked to do much again), Donte Moncrief (he was shut down in this matchup a year ago and has been an all or nothing touchdown option so far with Luck active), Frank Gore (Gore turned in an RB14 week when these teams a met a year ago, but was afforded 28 rushing attempts in getting there), T.Y. Hilton (I’m still starting him as his ceiling is always a play away, but he has faced Denver in each of the past three seasons, finishing as the WR75, WR53 and WR28), Phillip Dorsett , Demaryius Thomas (dealing with a hip injury and expecting Denver to run effectively this week have my expectations low)

Reasonable Return: Andrew Luck (the team total is sketchy here on the road, but Luck was one of three quarterbacks to hit 20 or more points against Denver last year and the weekly volume is just too hard to completely fade even if expecting the receivers here to be under the marks they posted a week ago), Dwayne Allen (because Denver is so tough on wide receivers, tight ends find opportunities. Luck has thrown a touchdown to a tight end in every meeting against Denver including a 4/64/1 line for Allen in the lone game he played versus them in 2014), Emmanuel Sanders (with Thomas ailing, targets will be there, but Anderson doing a lot could cap a great matchup), Virgil Green (Indy allowed nine top-12 tight ends a year ago and started off allowing another Week 1)

Minnesota vs. Green Bay

Packers	Rank	@	Vikings	Rank
-2		Spread	2
23.0		Implied Total	21.0
60.0	23	Plays/Gm	61.0	20
68.0	23	Opp. Plays/Gm	65.0	18
41.7%	16	Rush%	45.9%	9
58.3%	17	Pass%	54.1%	24
38.2%	12	Opp. Rush %	33.9%	5
61.8%	21	Opp. Pass %	66.2%	28

• Over Adrian Peterson‘s past eight regular season games, he’s been held under 70 rushing yards six times while averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
• Over that same timespan, he has just two top-10 scoring weeks.
• Peterson’s past three Week 1 scoring finishes have now been RB27, RB38 and RB60. In those first two seasons, he was RB31 and RB4 the following week.
• Peterson has a rushing touchdown in eight consecutive games against the Packers.
• In the five games in which he’s surpassed seven targets, Stefon Diggs has finished as the WR25, WR15, WR7, WR14 and WR19.
• In Jordy Nelson‘s first game back, he played 57 of 64 snaps.
• Randall Cobb hasn’t been a top-20 scoring receiver since Week 9 of last season and in his past four meetings against the Vikings he has been WR31, WR48, WR38 and WR49.
• Aaron Rodgers has eclipsed 7.0 yards per pass attempt just twice over his past 11 games played.
• Minnesota allowed 26.6 points receiving to the Titans backfield last week (the most in the league), but just 4.5 points rushing (31st).
• Eddie Lacy has rushed for 100-yards in four of his past five games against the Vikings.

Bust: Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy (Minnesota is tough to be heads up on the ground and Lacy’s receiving output is hampered by James Starks), Jared Cook (the Vikings have allowed just four top-12 scoring tight ends since the start of last season)

Reasonable Return: Aaron Rodgers (he’s thrown for just 219 yards per game over his past eight games with just three top-10 weeks over that span), Jordy Nelson (you liked the touchdown, but there was nothing downfield as he had just four yards per target), Adrian Peterson (his struggles aren’t all him as the Minnesota offensive line and play calling predictability are also culprits, but he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry against Green Bay a year ago and the Packers stifled the run a week ago. The positive is we know his volume isn’t going anywhere), Stefon Diggs (has a secure grip on the lead role now, but ceiling volume is always a question mark), Kyle Rudolph (Julius Thomas did some damage split out wide, something Rudolph isn’t a threat to do but he’s gone over 50 receiving yards in three of his past four against the Packers with three top-13 scoring weeks)

Philadelphia vs. Chicago

Eagles	Rank	@	Bears	Rank
3		Spread	-3
20.0		Implied Total	23.0
73.0	4	Plays/Gm	54.0	28
50.0	2	Opp. Plays/Gm	72.0	28
46.6%	7	Rush%	37.0%	24
53.4%	26	Pass%	63.0%	9
42.0%	18	Opp. Rush %	48.6%	29
58.0%	15	Opp. Pass %	51.4%	4

• Jeremy Langford played 96 percent of the offensive snaps for Chicago last week, the highest percentage for any running back in the league.
• Alshon Jeffery averaged 109.8 receiving yards per game over his past eight full games with seven reaching at least 90 yards.
• Jay Cutler has been a top-10 scoring quarterback in just one of his past 16 games played while being QB20 or lower in six of his past eight.
• Carson Wentz‘s 278 passing yards were the 7th most by any rookie quarterback in Week 1 and the 4th most for any Eagles rookie quarterback during any week of the season.
• The Eagles backfield snaps in Week 1 were Darren Sproles (38), Ryan Mathews (37) and Kenjon Barner (13).
• Mathews carried the ball on 60 percent of his snaps, the second highest rate in the league behind Melvin Gordon (61 percent) Week 1.
• Jordan Matthews was targeted on 19 percent of his snaps in Week 1. Those totals were at 14 percent on 2015 and 13 percent in 2013.
• Matthews was targeted on 37.8 percent of the Philadelphia pass attempts, trailing only A.J. Green and Allen Robinson for Week 1.

Trust: Jordan Matthews (from one great matchup to another this week), Alshon Jeffery (he should find Nolan Carroll and Jalen Mills often)

Bust: Ryan Mathews (the Bears’ front is their strength and Mathews was just an average performer in a great matchup against Cleveland while sharing the field a little more than expected), Jay Cutler, Kevin White (he has seen seven targets, but managed just five yards per look), Zach Miller (last year Miller was aided by the Bears running a skeleton crew at receiver. We’ll need to see bankable usage before thrusting him in lineups)

Reasonable Return: Jeremy Langford (he grinded out an RB20 week in a rough matchup a week ago and this matchup isn’t a ton better now that teams aren’t running 70 plays per game against the Eagles), Darren Sproles (he wasn’t used heavily a receiver last week, but could be a larger part of that game plan with the loss of Zach Ertz this week), Carson Wentz (he didn’t look like someone who missed a lot of time this preseason and the matchup is strong again to use as a QB2), Nelson Agholor (his points largely came on one play, but Will Fuller was consistently behind the Chicago secondary last week)

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings