The NFL Week 3 Worksheet

We’re locked into pacing downhill after a wild Week 2 which featured multiple big name players getting injured or laying eggs for rosters. Hopefully you survived the carnage as we pick up and move onto Week 3.

As your token disclaimer and guide to this post, the intent here isn’t a linear start/sit guide for rosters, but a vehicle to provide a statistical snapshot for all the games this weekend. Take that information in conjunction with your own feelings and apply it to your lineup dilemmas and make sure to cross reference any questions with my weekly player rankings.

Houston vs. New England

Texans	Rank	@	Patriots	Rank
0		Spread	0
20.3		Implied Total	20.3
70.5	6	Plays/Gm	71.0	2
57.0	5	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.0	7
48.9%	3	Rush%	48.6%	4
51.1%	30	Pass%	51.4%	29
34.2%	6	Opp. Rush %	29.2%	6
65.8%	27	Opp. Pass %	70.8%	27

• Will Fuller is just the second wide receiver ever to gain 100-yards receiving in each of his first two career games, joining DeSean Jackson.
• The six targets and 8.2 fantasy points scored by DeAndre Hopkins in the meeting between these teams Week 14 of last season were his lowest totals in each category over his past 18 games played.
• Lamar Miller has accounted for 83.6 percent of the Houston rushing yardage, trailing only DeAngelo Williams (87.5 percent) for the highest share in the league.
• The Texans have allowed just 20.5 yards per opponent possession, the fewest in the league.
• Houston leads the league in sack rate at 12.0 percent of opponent drop backs after ranking second in 2015 (7.7 percent).
• The past 11 starting quarterbacks to face the Texans have averaged 10.8 fantasy points for an average weekly finish of QB24.
• LeGarrette Blount has carried the ball on 55 percent of his snaps, the highest rate in the league through two weeks.
• Blount has had back to back games with 20 plus carries for the second time in his career and first time since 2011.
• Julian Edelman has seen 26.1 percent of the New England pass attempts come in his direction while no other Patriot is at 15 percent for the season.

Trust: Lamar Miller (we’ve seen the floor that Miller holds in this offense based on usage alone with RB17 and RB19 weeks and Houston is playing with high play volume just like a year ago), DeAndre Hopkins (teams are no longer able to primarily focus on him now that Fuller is lifting the lid off of the defense and although Malcolm Butler is a solid corner, he also will give up his share of receptions)

Bust: Brock Osweiler (the Patriots allow their share of passing yards, but Osweiler already has turned in two weeks in the back half of quarterback scoring and is a road quarterback attached to a low team total), Jacoby Brissett (this would be a bad spot for any quarterback given how the Texans defense has played since mid-season of last year, let alone a rookie making his first start), Martellus Bennett (he actually ran more routes in Week 1 than last week, but made the most of his opportunities. Between being needed to prevent this Houston front blocking, a rookie quarterback and Houston allowing just two opposing tight ends to score over their past 14 games, I’m only using him as a fringe top-12 play), Rob Gronkowski (if you’ve followed this article in the past then you know I’m pessimistic about most players returning from a multiple week injury)

Reasonable Return: Will Fuller (Fuller already has 12 targets on the season that have come 15 yards or further downfield. Those types of targets make him a player than can put up points on just a few plays which put him in weekly WR2 status, but depending on those types of low percentage targets will eventually lead to a few donuts), Julian Edelman (finding the end zone may continue to be a problem until Tom Brady returns, but has turned in two weeks right around the 15 point mark even without a touchdown), LeGarrette Blount (volume should still be here for Blount as New England is unlikely to make Brissett do heavy lifting and he can always net you a short yardage score, even if this Houston front is a problem for the Patriots)

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Baltimore vs. Jacksonville

Ravens	Rank	@	Jaguars	Rank
0		Spread	0
23.5		Implied Total	23.5
68.0	10	Plays/Gm	65.5	15
53.5	3	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.5	9
39.7%	18	Rush%	28.2%	30
60.3%	15	Pass%	71.8%	3
43.9%	23	Opp. Rush %	48.8%	32
56.1%	10	Opp. Pass %	51.2%	1

• Opposing teams have already run 41 plays in the red zone against Jacksonville, the most in the league.
• Jacksonville has allowed .691 passing points per attempt, 31st in the league (Oakland .773).
• Mike Wallace‘s three touchdowns on the season match his total over his previous 17 games played.
• Dennis Pitta has accounted for 25.5 percent of the Baltimore receptions, the second highest rate for a tight end, trailing only Greg Olsen (28.6 percent).
• Just 19 of Blake Bortles’ 49 career touchdown passes have given Jacksonville the lead in a game.
• Baltimore has allowed just one top-12 scoring quarterback (Russell Wilson) over their past nine games.
• Allen Robinson‘s .86 points per target ranks 62nd for all wide receivers with double digit targets. Robinson ranked 14th in that category in 2015 (2.01 points per target).
• Allen Hurns has been a top-40 scoring wide receiver in just two of his 20 games in which he failed to score a touchdown.
• T.J. Yeldon‘s 67 rushing yards are the second fewest for any back with 25 or more carries on the season (Adrian Peterson, 31 carries for 50 yards).

Trust: Joe Flacco (volume-wise, he’s picked up right where he left off a year ago and with Baltimore unable to run the football effectively, we should see him flirt with another 40 pass attempts against a secondary that allowed him to be the QB7 a season ago when these teams played), Allen Robinson (we knew Robinson’s touchdown totals were going to be shaved from last season’s output, but we were hoping to see increased efficiency in his connection with Bortles to hedge those results doing damage to his fantasy lines. Still, the Ravens were victimized by Corey Coleman vertically last week; something that Robinson is more than capable of doing to get going this season)

Bust: Justin Forsett/Terrance West (there’s been nothing but an even split of below average results so far), Steve Smith (he keeps getting jammed with targets, so there’s intrigue if he shows he some life, but has been the WR68 and WR53 to start his farewell tour), Julius Thomas (the Ravens allowed just four top-10 scorers at the position a year ago and both Charles Clay and Gary Barnidge finished outside of the top-20 to start the season)

Reasonable Return: Mike Wallace (he’s found the end zone to cover up pedestrian volume, but he’s quickly becoming the receiver to use weekly in Baltimore), Dennis Pitta (he’s fully back to being a main target for Flacco and the Jacksonville linebackers are always a target in coverage for a tight end seeing looks), T.J. Yeldon (if Chris Ivory is finally active, then I’ll be off Yeldon completely, but despite his ineffectiveness, he’s still been the RB14 and RB18 based on his usage and passing game involvement), Allen Hurns (both Jacksonville receivers scored when these teams played a season ago and Hurn’s usage hasn’t differed from a year ago), Blake Bortles (the Ravens have limited quarterback scoring, but Bortles seems to always find a way to turn in a usable line)

Washington vs. New York (NFC)

Washington	Rank	@	Giants	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
21		Implied Total	25.5
60.0	31	Plays/Gm	64.5	19
66.0	19	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.0	21
24.2%	32	Rush%	43.4%	11
75.8%	1	Pass%	56.6%	22
45.5%	25	Opp. Rush %	32.1%	4
54.6%	8	Opp. Pass %	67.9%	29

• Last week, Eli Manning became just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to have multiple games in their career with more than 350 passing yards while failing to throw a touchdown pass.
• Shane Vereen has had 35.7 percent of the team rushing attempts through two weeks (20 carries). Last season, he totaled 61 carries (15.1 percent of the team carries).
• Jamison Crowder has played more snaps in each of the first two games than Pierre Garcon and leads the team in targets with 18.
• Crowder averages 5.9 yards at the point of the reception, the lowest for all receivers with double digit receptions.
• Through two weeks, Washington has had the fewest rushing attempts in the league with 29 and the lowest rushing rate at 24.2 percent of their plays.
• The Giants have allowed just 71.0 yards rushing per game through two weeks (4th) after allowing 121.4 per game last season (24th).
• New York has allowed just 8.8 yards per completion so far (1st) after allowing 11.3 yards per completion in 2015 (24th).
• Jordan Reed was the TE6 and the TE5 against New York last season without even scoring a touchdown in either game, catching 14 passes for 198 yards combined.

Trust: Sterling Shepard (Shepard is tied for second in the league with 11 receptions from the slot and will have the best individual matchup of the Giants receivers on Dashaun Phillips), Odell Beckham (he’s matched the longest scoring drought of his career, but has scored in every game he’s played against Washington and showcased last year that even if he tangles with Josh Norman, he can get over), Eli Manning (we had a hollow fantasy game from Manning a week ago, but the yardage and efficiency were still there while Washington has allowed two top-half scoring weeks to opposing quarterbacks so far), Jordan Reed (the soft spot in the Giants defense is still attacking their linebackers in pass coverage and Reed is one of just four tight ends to have five or more receptions in each game this season)

Bust: Matt Jones (Washington has shown little commitment to establishing any ground game and even if they did, the Giants upgraded defense has been worth the investment through two weeks), DeSean Jackson (he’ll always be on the radar because of his splash play potential, but boundary receivers Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks and Michael Thomas have all been WR36 or lower facing the Giants), Rashad Jennings (he’s had two solid matchups so far and little to show for them and now is dealing with a cast on his hand to start the week)

Reasonable Return: Victor Cruz (he’s third in the target pecking order, but New York is a base three receiver offense and Bashaud Breeland has had back to back rough weeks in coverage), Chris Thompson (he’s been a top-30 scorer each of the first two weeks as Washington has skewed pass heavy, something that should continue this week), Kirk Cousins (Cousins has thrown for the third most yardage in the league, but has just one touchdown pass, something that will level itself out if his volume remains this high), Jamison Crowder (the ceiling isn’t enormous, but interior options such as Cole Beasley and Willie Snead have turned in top-30 weeks facing the Giants), Shane Vereen (Vereen has been a weekly flex option through two weeks and the Giants should continue to run more no huddle at home while Jennings may inevitably not play much or at all with his injury)

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Detroit vs. Green Bay

Lions	Rank	@	Packers	Rank
7.5		Spread	-7.5
20.3		Implied Total	27.8
65.5	16	Plays/Gm	62.0	24
64.0	11	Opp. Plays/Gm	62.5	10
35.9%	25	Rush%	38.7%	19
64.1%	8	Pass%	61.3%	14
33.6%	5	Opp. Rush %	38.4%	11
66.4%	28	Opp. Pass %	61.6%	22

• Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had a game in which he’s posted a 100.0 quarterback rating since Week 6 of last season (12 games). The previous longest draught of his career was four games during the 2010 season.
• Rodgers was the QB4 and the QB9 versus Detroit in 2015.
• Green Bay has averaged just 4.5 yards per play, 30th in the league and ahead of only San Francisco (4.4) and Los Angeles (4.0).
• With Ameer Abdullah injured, Theo Riddick played 65 percent of the Detroit offensive plays, matching his season high from a year ago in Week 8.
• The Packers have allowed just 78 rushing yards on the season (1st) after allowing 112.7 per game in 2015 (19th).
• 86.7 percent of the yards gained against the Packers so far have been through passing, the highest percentage in the league.
• Golden Tate has seen 20.3 percent of the Detroit pass attempts, the exact same total he had in 2015.
• Marvin Jones leads the Lions in targets (22) and has seen double digit targets in back to back games for the first time in his career.

Trust: Aaron Rodgers (chasing the lofty team total at home may be a trap, but Detroit has already allowed multiple touchdown passes in each game)

Bust: Eddie Lacy (his role is far removed from receiving enough opportunity weekly to make him a set and forget option and the Lions allowed just 114 total rushing yards in the two games these teams played a year ago), Randall Cobb (if your expectations for Cobb are somewhere in the WR30-35 range then you won’t be disappointed, but he’s been inside the top-30 in just one of his past 10 games), Golden Tate (Tate has run 22.6 percent of his routes from the slot so far this year per Pro Football Focus after 56 percent in 2015, leaving his weekly floor lower than it was a year ago while not showcasing a ceiling thus far), Dwayne Washington (it’s doubtful he sees a heavy look immediately and Green Bay has smothered the run so far)

Reasonable Return: Jordy Nelson (even if covered by Darius Slay, Nelson has scored a touchdown in 12 of his past 18 games), Davante Adams (he’s seen seven targets in each of the first two games and should see targets funneled his way again in a matchup against Nevin Lawson), Marvin Jones (Sam Shields should be back this week, but with the way Stafford is targeting Jones, you’re not running away), Matthew Stafford (the Lions shallow passing game showed how vulnerable they can be when they aren’t stacking high end efficiency a week ago, but Stafford is a lock to flirt with 40 pass attempts as a starting point with the way the Green Bay run defense has looked so far), Theo Riddick (he already has 18 carries compared to just 40 a season ago and with Ameer Abdullah out, should have plenty of flex value paired with his receiving ability), Eric Ebron (Ebron had a touchdown called back a week ago after scoring in Week 1 and Green Bay has already allowed a touchdown to the tight end position in each of their first two games)

Cleveland vs. Miami

Browns	Rank	@	Dolphins	Rank
10		Spread	-10
16.0		Implied Total	26.0
54.5	30	Plays/Gm	57.5	29
72.0	31	Opp. Plays/Gm	77.0	32
40.4%	15	Rush%	31.3%	26
59.6%	18	Pass%	68.7%	7
41.7%	19	Opp. Rush %	45.5%	24
58.3%	14	Opp. Pass %	54.6%	9

• Isaiah Crowell has accounted for 68.2 percent of the Cleveland rushing attempts so far (11th of all backs) after having 48.7 percent in 2015.
• Gary Barnidge has seen just 11.9 percent of the team targets to start the season after seeing 20.8 percent in 2015.
• Corey Coleman was the first Browns rookie receiver to ever have two receiving touchdowns and 100-yards receiving in the same game.
• Miami has trailed for 91.3 percent of their offensive plays so far this season, the highest percentage in the league.
• DeVante Parker returned to play 92 percent of the offensive plays and was targeted on 22 percent of them, which led the team.
• Over his past seven games played, Parker averages 78.7 receiving yards with while reaching 80 yards or more in five of them.
• Over the past seven games in which he’s played alongside Parker, Jarvis Landry averages 8.1 receptions for 91.8 yards and 18.0 fantasy points as opposed to 6.5 receptions for 64.7 yards and 16.2 points in the other 11 games he’s played since the start of last season.
• With Arian Foster out, Jay Ajayi played 37 snaps to 18 for Kenyan Drake.

Trust: Ryan Tannehill (the Browns have allowed at least 15 points to 13 of the past 18 quarterbacks they have faced), Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker (he did a lot of damage in lopsided game script a week ago, but Miami is still a base three wide receiver offense with not much threat of a running game facing a poor secondary)

Bust: Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake (being a big favorite at home bodes well for rushing attempts, but the Dolphins don’t have a reliable body to lean on and the Browns run defense hasn’t been the complete disaster we expected entering the season), Corey Coleman (it’s going to be hard to chase last week’s performance with Cody Kessler getting the start), Gary Barnidge (he’s yet to turn in a top-20 week to start the season and clearly isn’t going to come close to the volume he seen a season ago)

Reasonable Return: Isaiah Crowell (volume should still be present as Cleveland attempts to insulate Cody Kessler, but the odds of him scoring in a third straight game are compromised), Jordan Cameron (Cleveland has allowed the most receptions to tight ends through two weeks)

Minnesota vs. Carolina

Vikings	Rank	@	Panthers	Rank
7		Spread	-7
18.0		Implied Total	25.0
59.0	28	Plays/Gm	73.0	1
64.5	14	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.5	8
42.4%	13	Rush%	47.3%	7
57.6%	20	Pass%	52.7%	26
34.9%	8	Opp. Rush %	45.5%	26
65.1%	25	Opp. Pass %	54.6%	7

• Stefon Diggs has accounted for 54.6 percent of the Minnesota receiving yards and 40 percent of the team receptions, both rates lead the league.
• Diggs now has four 100-yard receiving games, tying Randy Moss and Anthony Carter for the most by a Vikings player through his first 15 games played.
• Diggs averages 16.1 yards per reception at the point of the catch, the highest for all receivers with double digit receptions.
• After Adrian Peterson was injured last week, Matt Asiata handled six of the eight running back carries.
• Cameron Artis-Payne led the Panthers in rushing attempts (33) when Jonathan Stewart was inactive last season after being inactive for nine of the 13 games Stewart was healthy.
• During those weeks, carries from the 5-yard and in were split: Cam Newton (2), Mike Tolbert (2), Artis-Payne (1).
• Just 25.1 percent of the fantasy points scored by running backs against the Vikings have been scored on the ground, the lowest in the league.
• The Vikings have allowed 17 points or less in five straight games, their longest streak since a six game run in 1994. The Panthers have been held to 17 points in just one of their past 18 games played.

Trust: Stefon Diggs (Diggs has been a top-25 scorer in every game he’s seen at least seven targets and the Carolina corners aren’t what they had in place a season ago)

Bust: Cameron Artis-Payne/Fozzy Whittaker (both will find yardage scarce and neither have strong odds for a touchdown over Newton or Tolbert), Matt Asiata (the Panthers front seven isn’t a defense where you’re going to chase goal line or milking the clock carries), Sam Bradford (as good as his first start was for the Vikings, the soft team total and poor matchup just aren’t enticing), Kyle Rudolph (just four tight ends have hit 50 yards receiving against Carolina since the start of last season)

Reasonable Return: Cam Newton (Newton showed in Week 1 that he can still overcome a poor paper matchup with his rushing ability, but the past five quarterbacks to face Minnesota have been QB23, QB29, QB19, QB15 and QB17), Kelvin Benjamin (he’s commanded 29 percent of the team targets so far and already has three red zone scores while the Vikings haven’t allowed a top-12 receiver over their past five games), Greg Olsen (he’s third in target market share for all tight ends, so you’re not budging him out of your lineups, but the Vikings have allowed just three tight ends to score inside of the top-10 since the start of last season), Jerick McKinnon (he may provide hollow touches as Asiata will likely take the short yardage work, but his pass catching ability should be incorporated into a game plan for the Vikings to move the ball effectively)

Denver vs. Cincinnati

Broncos	Rank	@	Bengals	Rank
n/a		Spread	n/a
n/a		Implied Total	n/a
61.0	3	Plays/Gm	64.5	18
67.0	22	Opp. Plays/Gm	70.0	29
49.2%	2	Rush%	28.7%	29
50.8%	31	Pass%	71.3%	4
39.6%	15	Opp. Rush %	47.1%	28
60.5%	18	Opp. Pass %	52.9%	5

• The Bengals lead the league in pass plays of 20 or more yards (13) while the Broncos have allowed the fewest (2) so far on the season.
• The Broncos have allowed just 16 receptions to opposing wide receivers, fewest in the league.
• A.J. Green has reached 75 receiving yards in just five of his past 14 games at home.
• Denver has allowed just 5.1 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (fewest in the league) while Cincinnati has allowed just 6.3 (4th fewest).
• Denver has allowed just four top-12 scoring quarterbacks since the start of last season, the fewest in the league.
• The Bengals rank first in opponent completion percentage (52.8 percent) while Denver ranks second (53.4 percent).
• Just 12.9 percent of the Bengals offensive yardage has been through rushing, the lowest rate in the league.
• The 47 touches for C.J. Anderson through two weeks are the most by a Denver player since Travis Henry (54) in 2007.

Trust: C.J. Anderson (he’s been a top-10 scorer in each of his first two games while the Bengals have allowed top-10 weeks to volume backs in Matt Forte and DeAngelo Williams)

Bust: Andy Dalton (he leads the league in passing yards, but keeping that string of 300-yard games going will be a tall task against Denver), Jeremy Hill (his run of poor matchups continues as you’re leaning on a layup scoring opportunity here), A.J. Green (you’re not benching him, but getting a top-12 return this week is against the odds), Demaryius Thomas/ Emmanuel Sanders (this matchup is much more in line with the opener in which both were outside of the top-50 scorers at the position)

Reasonable Return: Giovani Bernard (he did almost all of his damage last week in the 4^th quarter, but this matchup should dictate his involvement being high again)

Arizona vs. Buffalo

Cardinals	Rank	@	Bills	Rank
-4		Spread	4
25.5		Implied Total	21.5
62.0	22	Plays/Gm	49.0	32
71.0	30	Opp. Plays/Gm	68.0	23
38.7%	20	Rush%	43.9%	10
61.3%	14	Pass%	56.1%	23
36.6%	10	Opp. Rush %	47.1%	27
63.4%	23	Opp. Pass %	52.9%	6

• Sammy Watkins’ snap percentage dropped from 84 percent Week 1 to 74 percent in Week 2.
• Watkins was targeted on 18.2 percent of his routes in Week 2 as opposed to 22.2 percent in Week 1. In 2015, that mark was 23.1 percent for the season.
• 33.3 percent (10 of 31) of LeSean McCoy‘s carries have gained zero or negative yardage, the highest rate so far for backs with 20 or more carries.
• The Bills have run just nine plays in the red zone (29th) after ranking 30th in the league in red zone snaps last season. Opponents have run only eight plays in the red zone against Arizona so far this season, the fewest in the league.
• Through two weeks, quarterbacks facing Buffalo are 15 of 19 (78.9 percent) for 420 yards passing on throws 15 yards or further downfield.
• Carson Palmer averaged 330 passing yards with 11 touchdown passes in his four starts traveling East for an early start last season.
• Larry Fitzgerald leads the league in targets from the 10-yard line and in (5) through two weeks.

Trust: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson (these three have been doing heavy lifting so far and the Bills defense had worlds of trouble containing the multiple options that the Jets had)

Bust: John Brown (with just seven targets through two games, he has to be shelved for the time being), Tyrod Taylor (Arizona has allowed just .239 passing points per attempt, the second best mark in the league), Sammy Watkins (the extended rest should help, but a date with Patrick Peterson is on tap)

Reasonable Return: Michael Floyd (he’s secured just five of 13 targets to start the season, but with Brown not being involved, opportunities will still be there), LeSean McCoy (he hasn’t been impressive, but having 50.7 percent of the Buffalo touches has been enough to get McCoy to the RB13 and RB17 to start the season)

Oakland vs. Tennessee

Raiders	Rank	@	Titans	Rank
1.5		Spread	-1.5
22.5		Implied Total	24.0
67.5	12	Plays/Gm	62.5	21
64.5	16	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.0	12
37.8%	21	Rush%	36.8%	22
62.2%	12	Pass%	63.2%	11
39.5%	13	Opp. Rush %	39.8%	16
60.5%	20	Opp. Pass %	60.2%	17

• DeMarco Murray has been targeted on 18.9 percent of the Tennessee pass attempts, tied with DeAngelo Williams for the highest rate amongst running backs.
• Oakland has scored a touchdown on eight of 22 drives (36.4 percent), the highest rate in the league so far.
• Latavius Murray has played 55 percent of the offensive snaps and received 26.2 percent of the team touches. In 2015, those marks were at 64 percent of the snaps and 41.2 percent of the team touches.
• The Titans have allowed just five receptions to opposing running backs so far, tied with Houston for the fewest in the league. Tennessee allowed the fewest receptions to backs in 2015 (3.5 per game).
• Tennessee has allowed .396 rushing points per carry, the second fewest in the league (Green Bay .288).
• Both quarterbacks to face the Raiders so far have been the second highest scorer on the week at the position.
• The Raiders are the first team to allow 500 yards or more of total offense in each of their first two games played.

Trust: Marcus Mariota (the Raiders have been roasted through the air to start the season and Mariota threw three touchdown passes in this matchup a year ago), Delanie Walker (Walker got back on track last week as the TE3 and Oakland’s bugaboos versus tight ends aren’t behind them as they allowed eight receptions for 159 yards to Atlanta’s tight ends a week ago), Derek Carr (Carr has over 20 points in each of his first two games and threw for 330 yards and three scores in this matchup a year ago), Amari Cooper (Cooper had seven catches for 115 yards in this meeting a year ago and Tennessee has already allowed a pair of seven catch, 100-yard games to lead receivers through two weeks)

Bust: Latavius Murray (he’s found the end zone in each of the first two games to cover a loss in usage and the Titans have been solid against the run and preventing receptions to the position to keep his floor in jeopardy)

Reasonable Return: DeMarco Murray (75 percent of his scoring has come from receiving, which has held his floor steady), Tajae Sharpe (he’s the type of receiver that can give the longer Oakland corners trouble), Michael Crabtree (he’s topped 70 receiving yards in just one of his past 10 games, but the most reliable red zone target in this offense)

Los Angeles vs. Tampa Bay

Rams	Rank	@	Buccaneers	Rank
4.5		Spread	-4.5
18.8		Implied Total	23.3
59.0	27	Plays/Gm	68.0	11
69.0	26	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.5	15
40.7%	14	Rush%	36.0%	24
59.3%	19	Pass%	64.0%	9
47.8%	30	Opp. Rush %	39.5%	14
52.2%	3	Opp. Pass %	60.5%	19

• Tavon Austin‘s 3.0 yards per target are the lowest for all receivers with double digit targets on the season.
• Austin has seen 32.8 percent of the Los Angeles pass attempts come his way, but has accounted for just 17.1 percent of their receiving yardage.
• The Rams have reached the red zone just once so far through two games, the fewest in the league.
• Tampa Bay has allowed 9 red zone trips to opponents, tied for the second most.
• Todd Gurley‘s .27 rushing points per carry ranks 46th of running backs with double digit carries so far on the season.
• Gurley is the first running back to have fewer than 100-yards rushing on 35 or more carries since Matt Forte in 2009.
• Jameis Winston was the first quarterback to have fewer than 5.0 fantasy points with 50 or more pass attempts in a game since Matthew Stafford in Week 15 of 2012.
• Last week was the first time in seven games that Charles Sims wasn’t a top-30 scorer on the week.

Trust: Mike Evans (he’s always going to have spouts of inefficiency with the types of targets he sees, but he’s already began to make good on expected touchdown regression while seeing the most targets in the league and dropped a 9-157 line against the Rams a year ago)

Bust: Vincent Jackson (he’s had 16 targets so far, but the story has been more of the same that we’ve seen over the past two years as he’s caught just six of them for 64 yards), Todd Gurley (outside of his own struggles, Tampa Bay has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backs so far on the season and held Gurley to 48 yards rushing on 21 carries a year ago)

Reasonable Return: Jameis Winston (the Rams have allowed just three top-12 scoring quarterbacks since the start of last season), Charles Sims (he wasn’t effective a week ago, but Sims is in a favorable spot at home to flirt with high RB2 output with Doug Martin out), Kenny Britt (even though the Tampa Bay secondary has been a weak link, it’s hard to envision the Rams exploiting them, but Britt has had double digit points in both weeks to start the season and is coming off of turning 10 targets into six catches and 94 yards against a much better secondary), Tavon Austin (he’s seeing much more targets than a year ago with 12 and 9 to start the season, but his rushing involvement is down with just three attempts so far)

San Francisco vs. Seattle

49ers	Rank	@	Seahawks	Rank
10		Spread	-10
15.3		Implied Total	25.3
70.5	4	Plays/Gm	69.5	8
69.0	25	Opp. Plays/Gm	56.0	4
48.2%	5	Rush%	40.3%	16
51.8%	28	Pass%	59.7%	17
43.5%	22	Opp. Rush %	40.2%	17
56.5%	11	Opp. Pass %	59.8%	16

• Torrey Smith‘s 31 percent catch rate (five of 16 targets) is the lowest for all wide receivers with double digit targets through two weeks.
• Seattle has allowed just .170 points per play, the fewest in the league.
• San Francisco has the most possessions in the league through two weeks (30), but rank 31st in yards per drive (22.0).
• Seattle is one of two teams (Philadelphia) that has yet to allow a passing touchdown after allowing the least or second fewest in each of the past four seasons.
• Blaine Gabbert averages 13.8 passing yards per drive, fewest in the league.
• Russell Wilson has been the QB24 and QB25 to start the season, his two lowest weekly finishes at the position since Week 17 of 2014 (QB25).
• Just 24.3 percent of Carlos Hyde‘s carries have gained five yards or more, which ranks 48th of the 54 backs with double digit carries on the season.
• Of Thomas Rawls’ 19 carries, just 21.1 percent have gained at least five yards (52 of 54 qualifying backs) and 38.8 percent have failed to gain any yards (the second highest rate behind Shaun Draughn at 37.5 percent).
• Christine Michael has had 44 percent of his carries gain at least five yards (9th) and only 16 percent gain zero or negative yardage (16th).

Trust: Russell Wilson (not much has inspired confidence thus far, but a home date with a 49ers defense that has allowed 21 points per game on the road to opposing quarterbacks could be the elixir he needs)

Bust: Thomas Rawls (he’s clearly not the same back that we saw a year ago and Michael just isn’t going away), Blaine Gabbert (because San Francisco runs so many plays and he can use his legs, Gabbert can put up ugly points, but we aren’t extending ourselves on the road in Seattle), Torrey Smith, Vance McDonald (he’s saved both of his weeks with 4^th quarter touchdown receptions, but has seen just 7.0 percent of the team targets), Carlos Hyde (Seattle hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher over their past 24 games)

Reasonable Return: Christine Michael (after a down Week 1, he was clearly the best back in Seattle a Week ago and San Francisco is fresh off allowing 100 yards on the ground to Fozzy Whittaker), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett (since the 49ers have been so giving to opposing quarterbacks on the road, receivers have followed suit)

Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia

Steelers	Rank	@	Eagles	Rank
-3		Spread	3
24.5		Implied Total	21.5
71.0	3	Plays/Gm	70.5	5
64.0	13	Opp. Plays/Gm	50.0	1
46.5%	9	Rush%	46.8%	8
53.5%	24	Pass%	53.2%	25
23.4%	2	Opp. Rush %	39.0%	12
76.6%	31	Opp. Pass %	61.0%	21

• DeAngelo Williams has a carry or target on 59 percent of his snaps, the highest rate for any running back in the league.
• Williams’ 68 touches are the most by a player through the opening two weeks of a season since Curtis Martin‘s 70 in 2004.
• Antonio Brown‘s 39 receiving yards last week were his fewest in a game with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback since Week 14, 2012 (35 yards).
• Jesse James is the only tight end other than Jason Witten to play on every snap so far this season.
• James ranks ahead of only Coby Fleener in yards per target (5.0) of all tight ends to see double digit targets on the season.
• Ryan Mathews has six carries from the 5-yard line and in, the most in the league.
• 59.6 percent of Mathews’ fantasy points have come via rushing touchdowns, the highest dependency of all top-24 scorers.
• Mathews only played 29 percent of the team snaps in Week 2, down from the 48 percent he played in Week 1.
• The Steelers have faced just 27 rushing attempts by opposing backs so far, the second fewest in the league.
• Trey Burton played just 42 percent of the snaps in Week 2, but was in for 61 percent of the passing plays, running 25 routes to 15 for Brent Celek per Pro Football Focus.
• Opposing tight ends have seen 23 targets facing the Steelers, tied with Cleveland and the Giants for the most in the league.

Trust: Ben Roethlisberger (Ben has started out as the QB9 and the QB11 and while the Eagles have allowed the fewest passing points per attempt, there’s still a chance that is more opponent driven than them being a poor matchup), Antonio Brown (he should get right back on track against the Eagles secondary who allowed 94 yards to Alshon Jeffery on Monday Night), DeAngelo Williams (there’s no reason to believe that Williams won’t continue to see immense usage in one of the league’s best offenses with Le’Veon Bell’s return next week and Williams has been dynamite with his opportunity)

Bust: Ryan Mathews (he’s masked back to back light games with layup scores while the Steelers consistently force teams into attacking them through the air), Jesse James (outside of the red zone, he’s been a limited target while the Eagles have allowed five or more receptions to just five tight ends since the start of last season)

Reasonable Return: Carson Wentz (the Steelers have allowed over 300-yards passing in each game to start the season, so a path to a floor is open and Pittsburgh will force pass attempts), Darren Sproles (Sproles has played 53 percent of the snaps for the Eagles while the Steelers have allowed startable scoring weeks to receiving backs in Chris Thompson and Gio Bernard the past two weeks), Jordan Matthews (he’s started the season with over 25 percent of the team targets with at least six receptions in each of his first two games), Trey Burton (if Zach Ertz is out again, Burton is play as streaming option once again)

New York (AFC) vs. Kansas City

Jets	Rank	@	Chiefs	Rank
3		Spread	-3
20		Implied Total	23
68.5	9	Plays/Gm	65.0	17
53.0	2	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.0	24
48.2%	6	Rush%	29.2%	28
51.8%	27	Pass%	70.8%	5
35.9%	9	Opp. Rush %	47.8%	29
64.2%	24	Opp. Pass %	52.2%	4

• Last week was the first time Matt Forte has reached 30 carries in a game over his career. It was the first time a Jets running back had 30 carries in a game since Chris Ivory (34) in Week 7 of 2013.
• The 59 touches for Forte are the most he’s ever had in a season through two weeks.
• Eric Decker has scored double digit points in 18 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league.
• Last week was the fifth time that both Decker and Brandon Marshall were top-24 weekly scorers in the same week over their past seven games.
• Quincy Enunwa is tied with Travis Benjamin for the highest catch rate among players with double digit targets at 93 percent, catching 13 of his 14 targets on the season.
• The Jets have allowed just two tight ends to score against them since the beginning of last season with the last one being Rob Gronkowski in Week 7 of last season.
• 52.4 percent (11 of 21) of Spencer Ware‘s carries have gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league so far. Just one of his carries has gained zero or negative yardage (4.8 percent), the second lowest rate behind Frank Gore (3.7 percent).
• Ware’s 1.45 points per touch leads all backs with 20 or more touches on the season so far.
• Last week, Jeremy Maclin was the first wide receiver to have fewer than 70 receiving yards on 15 or more targets since he last did it with the Eagles in Week 4 of 2014.
• Alex Smith‘s 3.6 fantasy points last week were the fewest by a Kansas City quarterback since Brady Quinn‘s 2.4 in Week 17 of 2012.

Trust: Matt Forte (as a road underdog, expecting him to reach another 20 plus carries may be wishful thinking, but there’s plenty of room for him to improve on the three targets he had last week)

Bust: Ryan Fitzpatrick (the Chiefs have allowed just one top-12 scoring quarterback over their past 14 games and multiple touchdown passes to just four of those passers), Alex Smith (the Jets have been burned on the deep ball back to back weeks, something that isn’t exactly a strength of the Chiefs passing game), Travis Kelce (the Jets have allowed just three top-10 tight ends since the start of last season)

Reasonable Return: Eric Decker (last week was his first 100-yard game since 2014, but he draws another plus matchup in the slot this week against Steven Nelson), Brandon Marshall (he’ll see Marcus Peters the most often, but Peters is a cornerback who will still give up fantasy production), Quincy Enunwa (he’s run fewer routes from the slot than Decker so far this season, but his flexibility will keep him in matchups with Nelson and Phillip Gaines), Jeremy Maclin (he’s already had two tough draws to start the season, but Darrelle Revis has shown to be vulnerable to start the season), Spencer Ware (the Chiefs haven’t led for any of their offensive plays this season and Ware has still been the RB2 and RB21)

San Diego vs. Indianapolis

Chargers	Rank	@	Colts	Rank
3		Spread	-3
24.5		Implied Total	27.5
66.0	14	Plays/Gm	67.0	13
66.5	20	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.5	17
50.8%	1	Rush%	29.9%	27
49.2%	32	Pass%	70.2%	6
22.6%	1	Opp. Rush %	42.6%	21
77.4%	32	Opp. Pass %	57.4%	12

• The Chargers have trailed for just 4.6 percent of their offensive plays, the fewest in the league. The Colts have trailed for 82.8 percent of their plays (27th).
• 40.9 percent of the Chargers offensive yardage has been on the ground, the highest percentage in the league.
• With his 102 yards rushing last week, Melvin Gordon was the first 100-yard rusher for the Chargers in 22 games played.
• Through two weeks, the Colts have already allowed three top-10 scoring running backs.
• The Chargers wide receiver and tight end target rates: Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams (24 percent), Antonio Gates (20 percent), Dontrelle Inman (12 percent).
• The Colts have allowed 46.8 yards per drive to opponents, the second highest total next to Oakland (52.0).
• San Diego has allowed opposing backs to catch 23 passes so far (most in the league), with three different backs catching six or more passes in a game.
• San Diego has allowed the second most rushing points per attempt at .907 (league average is .580), but have faced the fewest rushing attempts in the league so far (30).
• Andrew Luck has averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game dating back to the start of last season, the most in the league.

Trust: Melvin Gordon (the workload should be nearly entirely his now with the loss of Danny Woodhead and the Colts have already allowed three top-10 scoring running backs), Philip Rivers (opposing quarterbacks have completed 73.6 percent of their passes so far against the Colts), Travis Benjamin (Benjamin has been thrust into a role with a higher ceiling and floor just like Gordon and the Colts secondary is still a work in progress with Vontae Davis still out), Andrew Luck (he was in a similar spot at home favorite with a high total in Week 1 and delivered while the Chargers have allowed the third most passing yards through two weeks), Frank Gore (he’s still had 18 and 16 touches to start the season in two lousy individual matchups. With the Colts transitioning to more two tight end sets he should be bigger part of the plans this week and running back touches against the San Diego defense have consistently been useful for fantasy purposes)

Bust: T.Y. Hilton (starting off with Darius Slay, the Broncos and now Jason Verrett is about as bad of a start as you could draw. Hilton runs a lot of his routes from the slot, somewhere where Verrett doesn’t trail often, but Casey Hayward isn’t a great consolation prize), Dexter McCluster (it’s hard to put much stock in him without seeing his usage first, even if this role has been valuable prior)

Reasonable Return: Tyrell Williams (even with his 44-yard score last week, he was still only the WR29), Antonio Gates (the matchup is strong again, but Gates only having 35 yards receiving on the season has expectations in check), Phillip Dorsett (with Donte Moncrief’s availability up in the air and Hilton drawing Verrett, Dorsett will have the opportunity to make plays), Dwayne Allen (the San Diego linebackers are exploitable in coverage and their secondary play can funnel targets to the position as they’ve allowed the TE7 and TE13 to start the year), Jack Doyle (he’s seen four and five targets to start the season and will now see extended snaps with Moncrief out. You could do worse if chasing a touchdown at the position in a game where the tight ends should be a factor)

Chicago vs. Dallas

Bears	Rank	@	Cowboys	Rank
7		Spread	-7
19		Implied Total	26
52.0	31	Plays/Gm	69.5	7
70.0	28	Opp. Plays/Gm	59.5	6
36.5%	23	Rush%	43.2%	12
63.5%	10	Pass%	56.8%	21
47.9%	31	Opp. Rush %	34.5%	7
52.1%	2	Opp. Pass %	65.6%	26

• Jason Witten has seen 24 percent of the Dallas pass attempts to start the season. He hasn’t seen 20 percent or more of the team targets since 2012 (22.3 percent).
• Witten has reached 70 yards receiving in a game just twice over his past 26 games played.
• Dak Prescott has completed 72.1 percent (44 of 61) of his throws shorter than 15 yards downfield as opposed to completing 25 percent (three of 12) beyond.
• Cole Beasley has been targeted on 31.6 percent of his routes, which is the highest rate of all wide receivers.
• The Bears have scored on just three of their 23 possessions (13.0 percent), the lowest rate in the league.
• Through two games, Alshon Jeffery has seven receptions for 178 yards in the first half of games and just two receptions for 23 yards afterwards.
• The Bears lead the league in sack rate allowed at 12.1 percent of their drop backs.
• Jeremy Langford went from playing 96 percent of the team snaps to 60 percent in Week 2 while his touch percentage dropped from 52.8 percent to 30.8 percent.

Trust: Dez Bryant (Bryant’s target consistency week to week can be frustrating, but the Bears have multiple injuries across their entire defense which should make them exploitable for the best player on offense)

Bust: Jeremy Langford (he’s done little outside of two short scores and the most concerning part is that he only has three receptions while the coaching staff appears to losing patience), Brian Hoyer (pacing in this game could be problematic to big fantasy points and outside of Jeffery, there isn’t much here for Hoyer to work with)

Reasonable Return: Dak Prescott (Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Lamarr Houston are out on a defense already missing Pernell McPhee and Dallas hasn’t held his volume in check to start), Ezekiel Elliott (he’s saved some subpar performance with touchdowns, but this defense is hobbled and on the road on a short week), Alshon Jeffery (Brian Hoyer isn’t a major downgrade for Jeffery as evidence of what Josh Gordon and DeAndre Hopkins were able to do with Hoyer as their quarterback, but Dallas has yet to allow a top-24 scorer through two weeks of facing passing first offenses), Cole Beasley (he’s had back to back games with double digit points and flex play use), Jason Witten (his targets went from 14 to four a week ago and his ceiling is replaceable, but his floor is usable at the position)

Atlanta vs. New Orleans

Falcons	Rank	@	Saints	Rank
3		Spread	-3
25.3		Implied Total	28.3
64.0	20	Plays/Gm	62.0	23
65.5	18	Opp. Plays/Gm	69.5	27
39.8%	17	Rush%	28.2%	31
60.2%	16	Pass%	71.8%	2
40.5%	18	Opp. Rush %	41.7%	20
59.5%	15	Opp. Pass %	58.3%	13

• Through two games, Mark Ingram has only played 50 percent of the offensive snaps for the Saints. That number was at 63 percent while he was active a season ago.
• 81 percent (17 of 21) of Ingram’s carries have come on first down, the highest rate of all backs with 20 plus attempts on the season. That rate was at 62 percent for Ingram in 2015.
• Coby Fleener‘s 2.9 yards per target are the lowest of any player with double digit targets on the season.
• Fleener has caught just 25 percent (three of 12) of his targets, also the lowest total for a player with double digit targets on the season.
• In the two meetings between these teams last season, Brandin Cooks totaled nine receptions for 63 yards on 11 targets.
• Cooks has scored a touchdown in six consecutive home games (eight total), averaging 108.8 yards receiving on 6.2 receptions for 25.4 points per game.
• Last week was the first since Week 9 of 2014 (25 games) that the Saints didn’t allow a passing touchdown, snapping the longest streak in franchise history.
• Matt Ryan currently leads all quarterbacks in passing points per attempt (.647) after finishing 27th (.384) in that category a year ago.
• Ryan leads all quarterbacks in passing yards per drive (34.8).
• Jacob Tamme has been targeted on 27.3 percent of his routes, the highest of all tight ends with 50 or more routes run Per Pro Football Focus.
• Devonta Freeman has had 30.8 percent of the Atlanta touches through two weeks. He was at 40.8 percent in 2015.

Trust: Matt Ryan (his touchdown production has bounced back and the Saints were fortunate not to allow a touchdown a week ago after giving up over 300 yards and over 8.0 yards per attempt for the second straight game), Julio Jones (Jones ranks just 49^th in targets at the receiver position after leading the league a year ago, but he’s more than good enough to make the most of them while the extra rest should help his gimpy ankle), Drew Brees (Brees at home against a defense that has allowed seven touchdown passes through two games is all we need to know), Willie Snead (he’s second in receiving yardage from the slot to start the season and Atlanta has allowed a touchdown from the slot in both games so far)

Bust: Michael Thomas (he’s had a modest start to his career with over 50 yards receiving in each game, but has yet to crack the top-40 in either week), Coby Fleener (he’s opened with two great matchups on paper and provided no return at all. Until he starts showing some rapport with Brees, it’s hard to use him)

Reasonable Return: Mark Ingram (his lack of usage is concerning since Atlanta has been unable to stop backs from catching passes since last season, but I’m willing to give him another look in what is expected to be a high scoring game), Brandin Cooks (he’s run into trouble facing Desmond Trufant before, but he’s been en fuego at home going back to last season while Trufant is no lock to trail him in coverage), Jacob Tamme (he was the TE16 and TE23 a season ago facing New Orleans, but has been far too involved to turn away from in a good matchup), Mohamed Sanu (the Saints have allowed over 80 yards to multiple receivers in each game this season and three last week) Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Coleman has out-targeted Freeman seven to four on the season, but both combined for 164 total yards a week ago and were both top-30 scorers)

Context Key:

Trust = Set him in your lineups this week

Bust = Player to underperform season average

Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average

**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings