So far this summer, we’ve covered the fantasy impact of rookie quarterback play, play splits and game scripts, scoring and efficiency per offensive possession and red zone production, but now we’re going to get into specific positional notebooks, starting with tight ends.
That may feel like starting at the bottom, because in 2016, the tight end position was largely a fantasy afterthought, especially when looking at the premier players at the position. After a strong 2015 campaign in which the upper crust of tight ends cleared 10,000 receiving yards for just the third time over the past decade, the top of the tight end position was a massive letdown a year ago.
Top-12 Scoring Tight End Output Over the Past 10 Years
| Year | PPR Pts | STD Pts | Rec | ReYd | ReTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2177.0 | 1349.9 | 842 | 9574 | 64 |
| 2015 | 2424.1 | 1551.1 | 873 | 10384 | 86 |
| 2014 | 2333.0 | 1506.0 | 827 | 9860 | 89 |
| 2013 | 2402.3 | 1568.3 | 834 | 9928 | 96 |
| 2012 | 2287.1 | 1427.9 | 857 | 9447 | 80 |
| 2011 | 2503.9 | 1610.2 | 898 | 10867 | 85 |
| 2010 | 2129.9 | 1459.5 | 779 | 8980 | 76 |
| 2009 | 2451.6 | 1554.4 | 900 | 10428 | 85 |
| 2008 | 1991.0 | 1239.3 | 766 | 8863 | 58 |
| 2007 | 2166.0 | 1377.6 | 792 | 9395 | 73 |
Collectively, 2016 was the worst scoring season for top-12 tight ends since 2010 in PPR formats and the lowest scoring season for the group in standard formats since 2008. One of the major components contributing to that deflation was the decline in touchdowns. The top-12 scoring tight ends in PPR formats combined for just 64 touchdown receptions, 22 fewer than the year prior. In fact, you’d have to extend all the way out to TE19 a year ago just to match the 86 scores tight ends reeled in over 2015 by the top of the group. A pair of by and large undrafted fantasy commodities -- Cameron Brate and Hunter Henry -- paced the position in touchdown output, reaching the paint eight times each. It was the first NFL season in which no tight end scored more than eight touchdowns since 2002. Of course, Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert combined to miss 20 games -- after combining to miss just six games and scoring a combined 35 touchdowns in 2015 -- further placing strain on the output for the top of the position. Like running backs after the 2015 season, we should anticipate the top of the tight end position to recoil some of their output in the scoring department.
While I’m anticipating a recovery in scoring overall for the top of the position, there’s still reason to question early investment in tight ends in relation to how they stack up in scoring versus the other skill positions.
Average Tight End Scoring Per Week vs WR/RB Over the Past 5 Years
| Rank | TE STD | RB% | WR% | TE PPR | RB% | WR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19.8 | 65.56% | 71.74% | 27.7 | 80.76% | 74.46% |
| 2 | 16.1 | 65.45% | 67.36% | 23.2 | 79.73% | 71.60% |
| 3 | 14.4 | 64.00% | 66.36% | 20.2 | 76.81% | 67.33% |
| 4 | 12.2 | 58.65% | 60.70% | 18.3 | 74.39% | 65.83% |
| 5 | 11.4 | 58.46% | 60.96% | 16.9 | 73.16% | 64.75% |
| 6 | 10.6 | 59.22% | 59.89% | 15.7 | 71.69% | 62.80% |
| 7 | 9.7 | 54.49% | 57.74% | 14.6 | 69.52% | 61.09% |
| 8 | 9.0 | 55.56% | 55.56% | 13.7 | 68.50% | 59.57% |
| 9 | 8.2 | 50.93% | 50.93% | 12.9 | 67.19% | 57.59% |
| 10 | 7.5 | 50.34% | 49.34% | 12.2 | 66.30% | 56.48% |
| 11 | 7.4 | 52.11% | 51.75% | 11.6 | 65.91% | 56.04% |
| 12 | 7.1 | 52.21% | 50.35% | 11.0 | 65.09% | 54.46% |
| 13 | 7.0 | 51.85% | 51.09% | 10.5 | 64.42% | 53.57% |
| 14 | 6.4 | 50.39% | 49.23% | 10.0 | 63.69% | 52.36% |
| 15 | 5.9 | 47.58% | 46.09% | 9.6 | 63.16% | 51.61% |
| 16 | 5.6 | 47.86% | 45.53% | 9.1 | 61.90% | 50.28% |
| 17 | 5.4 | 47.37% | 45.38% | 8.7 | 61.27% | 49.15% |
| 18 | 5.1 | 48.57% | 43.59% | 8.3 | 60.58% | 47.98% |
| 19 | 4.6 | 44.23% | 41.07% | 7.9 | 59.40% | 47.02% |
| 20 | 4.5 | 44.12% | 42.06% | 7.6 | 58.91% | 46.63% |
| 21 | 4.2 | 41.58% | 40.00% | 7.2 | 57.60% | 45.00% |
| 22 | 3.9 | 40.21% | 37.86% | 6.8 | 56.20% | 43.31% |
| 23 | 3.8 | 43.68% | 38.38% | 6.4 | 54.70% | 42.11% |
| 24 | 3.4 | 39.53% | 34.69% | 6.1 | 53.98% | 40.94% |
The way to digest this is that in terms of the very top overall spot, the average weekly TE1 over the past five seasons produces only 65.6 percent of the RB1 spot and 71.7 percent of the WR1 spot in standard leagues, and 80.8 percent and 74.5 percent respectively in PPR formats, and so on down the line. On a per week basis over the past five seasons, the tight end position per week has scored an average of just 62.9 percent of the wide receiver position among the top-12 weekly scorers and 71.6 percent of the running back position in PPR leagues. And things take a larger hit in standard formats.
The average TE12 (baseline “starter” in 12 team leagues) per week in PPR formats scores on par with the QB23, RB25 and WR38 while in standard formats, those marks match the QB27, RB30 and WR37. If you’re a value-based drafter and we want to get into weekly floors, the average baseline tight end in PPR leagues produces 39.7 percent of the top scoring output at his respective position, while those marks are 53.6 percent for quarterbacks, 40.1 percent for wide receivers and 32.9 percent of running backs. Tight ends may not have the replaceability of the quarterback position -– the other solo starting position for fantasy -- but stacking running backs to circumvent baseline performances is far more valuable, and the wide receiver positional baseline is right on par before even factoring in replaceability of those weeks.
Positional Replicability
Your thoughts from above may be that despite the tight end position not being on par with the other skill spots that there are more individual players at the running back and wide receiver positions to occupy those spots, and therefore owning an elite tight end is still an advantage at a one-off position and gives us weekly advantage over opponents early in drafts.
The tight end position carries the lowest replicability of all positions for baseline output on a weekly level, meaning it’s harder to find players carrying a consistent advantage over the field for the entirety of a season. Of the tight ends that produced at least one Top-12 week in a season over the past five years, just 71.7 percent of those players produced multiple Top-12 weeks for the season with just 54 percent of those players producing three or more Top-12 weeks. That number drops all the way to 32.9 percent of those players that produced just five or more Top-12 games on the entire season and all the way down to 11.9 percent for players doing so eight or more times in a year. In comparison to the other positions, 50.8 percent of the quarterbacks to produce a Top-12 week went on to have five or more that season while 47 percent of wide receivers and 40.9 percent of running backs did so. Those percentages fall to 19.1 percent (QB), 20.3 percent (RB) and 22 percent (WR) for players doing so eight or more times in a season. If you can identify those players that will fill up those weeks at the tight position, they can give you a positional advantage despite the position itself not offering an advantage in relation to backs and receivers.
Over the past five seasons, only four tight ends have had three or more individual seasons with eight or more Top-12 weeks. Those players are Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen (four each) as well as Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce (three each). Adding in players that have done it just two more times adds Delanie Walker, Kyle Rudolph and Jason Witten into that mix with 11 other players reaching that arbitrary plateau in one season over that span. In terms of startable weeks per games played over that span, just seven tight ends have provided a starting week in over half of their games with only Gronk (79 percent) and Graham (62 percent) over 60 percent. He carries a wealth of risk himself, but Gronk is the one true unicorn at the position, scoring as a top-6 tight end in 55 percent of his games played over the past five seasons with just 12 of those 56 games played finishing outside of the Top-12 at his position.
On a seasonal level, just 50.9 percent of top-12 scoring tight ends on the season repeated the feat the following season over the past 10 years. That replicated output was lower than the quarterback (56.4 percent), wide receiver (53.7 percent) and running back (51.8 percent) baselines over the same time frame. There can be a positional advantage gained by selecting a strong tight end early on, but they are far more limited in supply and carry less season to season rollover than other positions paired with the opportunity cost of bypassing players at positions that score more points per game and require more to be rostered.
Snaps Versus Routes
The tight end position is unique in that they are asked to serve multiple roles per play more so than the running back and wide receiver positions, who have more opportunities per play call to contribute compared to tight ends. A tight end may be on the field a lot, but not getting a lot of true usage in the passing game. Jason Witten was second in the league in snaps a year ago, but was just 10th in routes run at the position per Pro Football Focus. Inversely, Coby Fleener was eighth of all tight ends in routes run, but ranked just 23rd at the position in snaps played. Passing opportunity is what we’re after because a player like Eric Ebron (463 routes run at a 65.4 percent route rate) is going to be more valuable for fantasy than Jesse James (387 routes at a 45.2 percent rate) despite playing 146 fewer overall plays on the season.
Route/Snap Rate and Target/Route Rate vs 2016 Over the Past 10 Years
| Player | Route/Snap% | 2016 | Tgt/Rt% | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gates | 58.63% | 66.67% | 19.61% | 21.79% |
| Austin Hooper | 50.50% | 50.50% | 12.75% | 12.75% |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 56.03% | 51.92% | 18.34% | 11.11% |
| Ben Watson | 43.61% | 51.90% | 17.75% | 19.46% |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 33.22% | 42.01% | 18.45% | 28.87% |
| Cameron Brate | 56.79% | 57.02% | 17.50% | 19.40% |
| Charles Clay | 48.42% | 47.59% | 19.98% | 19.52% |
| Coby Fleener | 60.72% | 71.86% | 17.61% | 16.84% |
| Delanie Walker | 55.84% | 60.73% | 19.48% | 22.33% |
| Dion Sims | 37.54% | 42.02% | 13.73% | 11.53% |
| Dwayne Allen | 42.20% | 48.45% | 16.28% | 16.22% |
| Eric Ebron | 63.91% | 65.40% | 17.16% | 18.36% |
| Erik Swoope | 38.49% | 39.02% | 21.65% | 21.88% |
| Gary Barnidge | 45.57% | 52.22% | 16.96% | 15.22% |
| Greg Olsen | 49.36% | 50.19% | 21.15% | 23.60% |
| Jack Doyle | 36.38% | 49.33% | 18.48% | 19.46% |
| Jared Cook | 62.46% | 62.20% | 20.07% | 24.51% |
| Jason Witten | 49.30% | 43.21% | 22.42% | 20.73% |
| Jermaine Gresham | 42.46% | 40.36% | 18.82% | 17.21% |
| Jesse James | 45.62% | 45.21% | 14.14% | 14.73% |
| Jimmy Graham | 65.95% | 61.22% | 23.70% | 19.25% |
| Jordan Reed | 59.35% | 61.95% | 26.49% | 24.29% |
| Josh Hill | 36.98% | 37.12% | 16.52% | 14.18% |
| Julius Thomas | 54.97% | 65.49% | 18.62% | 15.88% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 50.05% | 55.67% | 18.11% | 22.22% |
| Lance Kendricks | 38.99% | 43.01% | 18.56% | 20.73% |
| Marcedes Lewis | 41.64% | 42.96% | 17.84% | 23.53% |
| Martellus Bennett | 45.39% | 41.29% | 19.77% | 18.44% |
| Maxx Williams | 55.19% | 35.19% | 15.10% | 0.00% |
| Rob Gronkowski | 47.92% | 48.30% | 23.76% | 21.18% |
| Travis Kelce | 54.27% | 57.45% | 21.45% | 22.40% |
| Tyler Eifert | 48.17% | 56.18% | 18.06% | 16.18% |
| Vance McDonald | 44.11% | 52.82% | 15.63% | 18.38% |
| Vernon Davis | 47.69% | 42.14% | 17.66% | 20.42% |
| Virgil Green | 26.04% | 45.77% | 14.42% | 15.32% |
| Will Tye | 54.21% | 53.67% | 18.66% | 18.58% |
| Zach Ertz | 59.33% | 58.28% | 21.55% | 20.36% |
| Hunter Henry | 41.81% | 41.81% | 19.58% | 19.58% |
*Route Data Provided by Pro Football Focus
- Even with a slight dip in percentage of snaps that were routes in 2016 from his career marks, no tight end has turned playing time into passing opportunity like Jimmy Graham, as nearly two thirds of his career snaps have been running passing routes.
- I mentioned last week that I still have concerns about Eric Ebron’s scoring potential, but he remains a PPR asset given how he has been used. He trails only Graham in percentage of snaps that are routes for their careers and ranked fourth at the position in that area in 2016.
- Jordan Reed has led all tight ends in PPR points per game over the past two seasons and it’s easy to see why. He’s fifth among all tight ends in percentage of routes per snap and leads the position in target rate per route run.
- We know Gronk is an excellent blocker, but it’s a testament to his ability and efficiency that he’s able to churn out such lofty production compared to the field despite reduced opportunity. Gronk has run 500 routes in a season just twice in his career, but he has been targeted on 23.8 percent of his career routes run, which trails only Reed.
- Kyle Rudolph not only made career jumps in red zone usage in 2016, but he also did so in terms of running more routes and being targeted at a higher rate than any prior season. As mentioned last week, Rudolph was perhaps the best tight end of the season in terms of wire to wire performance, posting at least 50-yards receiving in 10 games, which tied Greg Olsen for most at the position. Rudolph had 12 games with double-digit PPR points, which was the most at the position.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz led the league in percentage of targets per route in 2016 (28.9 percent), but ran a route on just 42 percent of his snaps (34th in route rate and 29th in overall routes a year ago). He tallied seven or more targets in nine games on the season, which was tied for the fourth-best mark at the position, but reached 50-yards receiving just three times, which was 24th for all tight ends.
- The perennial tease of Jared Cook only paid off in DFS during the postseason, but he’s ranked highly in passing game opportunity per snap played for his career. The Raiders didn’t even use a tight end on 53 percent of their passing plays in 2016, the highest rate in the league. There’s a chance that Cook can uproot Seth Roberts’ role in the offense, but we’re still taking a leap of faith there on a tight end that has finished higher than TE15 in overall scoring just once in his career and has just 16 career touchdowns despite being a receiver masquerading as a tight end.
- Tyler Eifert was asked to run more routes per snap last year, which may have been both personnel and game script induced. It will be interesting to see if his opportunities slip back down a bit toward his career totals given the additions the Bengals made on offense and beginning the season relatively healthy outside of the availability of Giovani Bernard. Eifert hasn’t been a high-volume guy, receiving more than six targets in just eight career games.
Rookie Tight Ends and Opportunity
2016 featured three tight ends selected in the first round of the NFL draft for the first time since 2002. Any time a rookie is selected with premium draft capital, there’s buzz surrounding his name in fantasy drafts, but tight end has been a notorious slow burn for fantasy purposes. It’s not that rookie tight ends are necessarily bad, but they have failed to gain fantasy relevance because of the lack of initial opportunity they receive. Just 22 rookie tight ends have received at least 60 targets in their inaugural season with just nine of those reaching the 70-target mark and four reaching 80 targets. Jeremy Shockey in 2002 (128 targets) is the only rookie tight end to see over 100 targets in his first season. Because of that sparse volume, just eight rookie tight ends have ever caught 50 or more passes in their first season and just seven have cracked 100 standard fantasy points in NFL history. Just five of 18 first-round tight ends have posted seven or more touchdowns in a season over their first three years let alone their rookie year. The argument you can potentially make for a rookie tight is opportunity, and given the assorted weapons in Tampa Bay and New York, it’s hard to envision O.J. Howard or Evan Engram making a huge dent in their respective team’s target share. David Njoku is set up best for immediate opportunity as Cleveland has 82 open targets at the position since releasing Gary Barnidge, but none are players to pursue with draft capital this summer.
Travis Kelce’s Breakout
We always hit on the top scorer at the position in these notebooks and Travis Kelce led all tight ends in scoring in 2016. Kelce’s season started off similarly to what we’ve seen from him in the past. Through nine games, Kelce had just 42 receptions for 466 yards and was a top-12 scorer in just four of those games. Over the final seven games, Kelce went nuclear, finally showcasing the ability we knew existed. From Week 11 on, Kelce caught 43 passes for 659 yards, which led the entire NFL. In the four games that Jeremy Maclin missed, Kelce received 15.8, 29, 34.1 and 38.1 percent of the Kansas City targets and over the final seven weeks, posted five 100-yard receiving games after having just three 100-yard games over his first 46 games played. Kelce should receive a plethora of targets given he is now the clear lead option in the Kansas City passing game, but expecting him to roll over his usage and output over that small stretch is placing lofty expectations on his fantasy projections.
No tight end has ever reached a 30 percent target share in an NFL season, with just 12 clearing 25 percent in a season since 2000. As mentioned in the open to this post, Kelce also is being elevated by one of the worst high-scorer tight end seasons of the modern era. His TE1 scoring finish trumped the field, but it was also the lowest scoring TE1 season in standard leagues since 2002 and the lowest scoring TE1 season in PPR leagues since 2006. We’re anticipating the field to be better around Kelce, largely due a touchdown spike, but that likely won’t help his cause since Kelce has consistently been a player playing in a situation that has prevented him from having the opportunity to score touchdowns. Outside of that lack of red zone scoring juice provided by his team, the Chiefs rank 26th in the league in passing TDs since 2013, when Alex Smith took over, and 27th in passing yards over that span. Kelce’s ADP has jumped to the 2/3 turn in drafts. The tight ends that have reached those heights in ADP in recent years (Gronk, Graham, Reed, Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas and Dallas Clark) were all significantly better touchdown producers and/or were on teams that produced significantly higher output in the passing game as a team than we are expecting the Chiefs to produce in 2017. While Kelce’s talent is unquestioned, pushing him up to such a lofty draft position given his surrounding team situation, positional floor/ceiling potential and opportunity cost outright in itself makes him one of the riskier draft picks at cost than projections would have you believe.
