You don’t like it. You might even reject it. But touchdown scoring explains a lot of what we’ll call variance — luck, to use a crasser term — in fantasy football.
That touchdown scoring is inherently volatile is hardly news to anyone who has rostered a pass catcher getting peppered with targets week in and week out, racking up receptions up and down the field, and failing to find pay dirt. The same goes for the quarterback you rostered that one year — the one who was accurate and efficient and checked all the nerdy metric boxes but came up short in the TD category, maybe through no fault of his own.
The opposite, of course, can be true. Maybe you once drafted a QB who very much Got Away With It thanks to some unsustainable touchdown production complete with messy metrics in a run-heavy system. Possibly you once rostered a wideout who seemed to find the end zone on every fourth catch. That was nice. Lucky, but nice.
Spotting players due for some touchdown regression -- the good kind or the bad kind — is a favorite pastime of mine here at Rotoworld. And no, for those asking, I do not have a degree in theoretical mathematics (please stop asking). I simply look at the spreadsheets and determine which touchdown rates are unsustainably low or high, and I write them down for you.
Last year I pointed to Joe Burrow as a positive TD candidate after his 4.1 percent touchdown rate in 2023. He posted a tidy little 6.6 percent TD rate in 2024 and led the NFL with 43 touchdown tosses. The regression hit bigly.
Brock Purdy was an easy regression candidate headed into 2024 after logging a TD on a gaudy 7.5 percent of his throws over the previous two seasons. That rate in ‘24 sank all the way to 4.4 percent, in line with Drake Maye and Jameis Winston. Not even the EPA-maximizing Shanahan offense can keep regression at bay.
Chris Godwin was another 2024 regression candidate, and before his horrific Week 7 season-ending ankle injury, he had five TDs on 50 catches, good for a 10 percent touchdown rate. That came after he caught a touchdown on just 2.3 percent of his receptions in 2023.
I whiffed on a few receivers in 2024: Jordan Addison who somehow saw an increase in touchdown rate after scoring on an absurd 14.4 percent of his receptions as a rookie in 2023. Michael Pittman, meanwhile, remained ice cold on TD production after I identified him as the good kind of regression candidate. And Mike Evans once again made me look silly with 11 scores. You’d think I’d learn not to doubt that the Bucs will feed Evans until he gets his. So it goes.
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Negative Touchdown Regression Candidates
Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Maybe you knew Mayfield would lead this list if you were savvy enough to roster him in 2024 and ride the rejuvenated Tampa quarterback to an elite fantasy campaign (he outscored Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels, somehow, and had a better fantasy points per drop back than Jared Goff). That’s (mostly) because Mayfield posted a career high 7.4 percent TD rate, miles higher than his career rate of 5 percent.
Entering 2024, Mayfield hadn’t eclipsed a 5 percent touchdown rate since 2020. He was coming off a season in which he threw a TD on 4.8 percent of his attempts. Mayfield in 2024 ran particularly hot in the green zone (inside the ten), completing 35 of 48 attempts for 17 touchdowns -- good for a green zone TD rate of 36 percent. That’s … quite high.
The Bucs discovered the run in the second half of the 2024 season. They finally stopped trying to make Rachaad White a thing and gave the backfield to hyper-productive rookie Bucky Irving, who is reportedly slated to take on a big workload in 2025. Tampa’s offense wasn’t necessarily pass heavy last year: The Bucs ranked eighth in pass rate over expected overall, and 22nd in PROE in the second half of the season. Reduced drop back volume and some touchdown passing regression could make Mayfield something closer to a borderline starter in 12-team leagues rather than a locked-in top six or seven weekly option.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills
No running back logged more rushing scores (16) than Cook in 2024. If you would have told me that last August, I would have ordered a wellness check for you. I would have called your spouse or your parents. The formula for Cook’s touchdown-heavy success should leave fantasy managers skeptical, bordering on dismissive.
Cook converted 11 of his 29 inside-the-ten rushing attempts into touchdowns, good for a 38 percent rate. That’s not absurdly high, but it’s quite lofty. It’s in the Derrick Henry range. Cook — who’s staging a “hold in” during Bills training camp — certainly made the most of his inside-the-five carries, converting 13 opportunities into six touchdowns. That he only handled 47 percent of Buffalo’s inside-the-five rushes is what concerns me most; that’s the same rate as guys like Tank Bigsby and Kareem Hunt.
Josh Allen’s red zone rushing domination and the presence of big back Ray Davis will make a repeat performance tough (impossible?). Allen, as you might expect, has been quite efficient as a rusher near the goal line. Last season, he scored seven touchdowns on ten inside-the-five rushing attempts, accounting for 38 percent of the team’s inside-the-five rushes. Cook, who had four rushing touchdowns over his first two NFL seasons, is almost sure to regress, and maybe by a lot.
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders
If he eventually comes to terms with the Commanders and suits up for Washington in 2025, McLaurin is a lock to regress following a 2024 campaign in which he scored 13 times. In fact, McLaurin’s 2024 TD production accounted for almost 40 percent of his career TD scoring. The analytics say that’s unsustainable.
All those touchdowns came on a humble 117 targets, McLaurin’s lowest target total since 2019, his rookie season. That speaks to Jayden Daniels’ excellence, naturally, but also suggests McLaurin simply ran hotter than my laptop when I have a bunch of tabs open.
Maybe it’s no surprise that McLaurin made the most out of his targets near the end zone in 2024. Seven of his eight inside-the-ten targets went for scores, and ten of his 13 inside-the-20 looks ended with touchdowns. McLaurin, if he plays for Washington at some point in 2025, should be a fine top-24 weekly wideout option. Just don’t expect him to turn every red zone opportunity into six points.
Sam Darnold - QB, Seattle Seahawks
Darnold is basically Jon Snow facing down a cavalry of regression by himself headed into the 2025 season.
Coming off a career best 6.5 percent touchdown rate in his lone season as Minnesota’s starter, Darnold enters a far less fantasy-friendly situation in Seattle with a rookie quarterback nipping at his heels. Darnold’s TD rate going into the 2024 season with the Vikings was a humble 4 percent. His best rate came in 2022, when he threw for a score on 5 percent of his attempts as the Panthers’ starter over six ultra-efficient games.
With the assistance of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Darnold posted a 28 percent red zone touchdown rate in Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly system. Under center for a Seahawks offense that has sworn off the pass for 2025, Darnold would do well to achieve 12-team streamer status. That 6.5 percent TD rate from last year is a liar. Don’t listen.
Positive Regression Candidates
Geno Smith - QB, Las Vegas Raiders
Every spreadsheet warrior’s favorite quarterback ran ice cold in 2024, his final, inglorious season with the Seahawks.
Smith managed a touchdown on a mere 3.5 percent of his attempts in what was one of the league’s most inefficient offenses (so inefficient that head coach Mike Macdonald has purged the team of all pass-heavy influences this offseason). Geno’s 2024 TD rate was below his 4 percent career rate and well below his 5.2 percent touchdown rate from 2023, his first year as Seattle’s starting QB.
Seattle’s green zone struggles were largely the source of Geno’s touchdown struggles. He completed just seven of his 27 inside-the-ten attempts in 2024, the lowest rate in the NFL. Only three quarterbacks were more inefficient inside the 20 yard line last season. It was bleak.
Geno, after forcing his way out of Seattle and into Vegas, is now heading what could (should?) be a balanced, efficient Chip Kelly offense. With Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers as his weapons, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Geno were to return to the 5-6 percent touchdown rate he enjoyed during his early days as Seahawks starter. He’ll be an underrated superflex option at worst in 2025.
Jonathan Taylor - RB, Indianapolis Colts
Usually a force near the goal line, Taylor’s red and green zone touchdown production fell off bigly in 2024. He scored just seven touchdowns on 32 inside-the-ten carries (22 percent). The good news: Only four backs logged more green zone touches than Taylor last season.
With some better touchdown luck (variance) near the end zone, Taylor could outshine his redraft ADP. Anthony Richardson getting the starting QB job would complicate things for Taylor, as Richardson — like most big, athletic quarterbacks — is a rushing force near the goal line and would naturally take opportunities away from Taylor as the Colts’ primary back.
Last year Taylor — one of the league’s best tackle breakers — accounted for 55 percent of the team’s inside-the ten rushes. It’s a decent rate, but nothing close to elite. Daniel Jones under center could allow Taylor to reach a 65-70 percent rushing rate inside the ten, and perhaps something higher inside the five. Taylor, who just two years ago converted half of his inside-the-ten opportunities into TDs, could make the most of it. A big enough touchdown bump for Taylor could launch him into top-three RB territory in 2025.
Trey McBride - TE, Arizona Cardinals
If you rostered McBride in 2024, you don’t need me to tell you he scored exactly two touchdowns on his 147 targets and 111 receptions. Thanks to Kyler Murray’s stunning inaccuracy, McBride scored twice on 13 inside-the-ten targets. No tight end saw more looks in the green zone.
MOM WAKE UP IT'S A TREY MCBRIDE TOUCHDOWN@mcbtrey + #WPMOYChallenge pic.twitter.com/0eYG59tHpy
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 29, 2024
Even a slight bump in TD rate could make McBride the overall TE1 in fantasy this season. That he doesn’t have much target competition — a bulked-up Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn’t qualify as competition — might open a path toward obscene touchdown production for McBride, who in 2024 enjoyed a hefty 33 percent red zone target share, the third highest rate in the NFL.
The variance should be kinder to McBride in 2025.
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs
The old man with his new teen-adjacent haircut might not have much left in the old tank, but variance could be Kelce’s friend in 2025 if he retains his normal role in the Kansas City offense (an open question as of this writing).
Kelce, who saw his peripherals fall off the face of the earth in 2024, turned only three of his 25 red zone targets into scores last season. He managed two touchdowns on ten inside-the-ten targets.
It’s not that his red zone role changed all that much. Kelce commanded a 27 percent red zone target share in 2024, an increase from 2022 and 2023. He just didn’t do much with the opportunity, which of course could be a function of being totally and completely washed. Still, tight ends are more reliant on touchdowns than any other position in fantasy, and a little more luck near the goal line in 2025 could make Kelce a startable weekly option in 12-team leagues.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said this summer that Kelce’s 2025 snaps should be “similar” to what they were last season, when he ran more pass routes than all but one tight end (Brock Bowers).
Kelce is boring now. The whole KC offense is boring. I get that. He might be less boring for fantasy purposes if those red and green zone looks start turning into scores.
