Megatron came to down to earth to do two things. Battle with Optimus Prime and win you your fantasy league. And from 2010 – 2013 he did exactly that.
But in 2013 Megatron began to resemble human form. Injuries robbed him of a few starts and even worse when he took the field while playing hurt in 2013 and 2014 he robbed you of weekly wins due to the Lions using him only as a decoy.
That bitter taste has lingered in fantasy players’ mouths all offseason long. And at the time of writing this he now has an ADP of 2.3 and coming off as the WR 6.
So is this warranted and how risky of a pick is he this year?
On our visualization graph we have him in the High Risk – Low Reward quadrant.
And while he is definitely one of the players closer to the high reward side of the graph it’s the high risk (which can be read as “low floor”) that should throw out a red flag here. There are a few similar production players who have lower risk profiles – Alshon Jeffery and TY Hilton with DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans also floating around.
One of the key factors that is pushing Johnson’s ADP down is the fact he has been injured frequently in the last two years.
Johnson has suffered four injuries in the last two years of which two required surgery. On his way to his third consecutive 1,400-yard season Johnson suffered a slight tear in his PCL along with taking some cartilage damage. His knee needed to be drained every week as a result of the swelling and he ultimately underwent surgery to repair the damage. He also needed surgery to repair a dislocated finger he played through an entire season with.
In 2014 he suffered a high ankle sprain that he initially tried to play through. He took the field as a decoy and put up some measly stat lines for the two weeks he was able to play. In Week 5 he took a shot on his injured ankle and had to leave the field. He missed the next 3 weeks and then also had the bye to help his recovery.
Drafting Calvin Johnson really comes down to how you want to approach his risk this year.
Those who see Calvin as a value in the second round are right when they say he could single-handedly win you your week on any given Sunday. After his injury last year he came back and pasted the league for 729 yards (91/game) and 6 TDs in the next 8 games. He was on track for yet another 1,400-yard season which are the kinds of numbers we have come to expect from him and something that people in the pro-CJ camp are throwing out there when discussing what a value he is going at this year.
Those fading him will point to his high injury probability. We have him at 63% based on his predicted risk of injury. They will also point to the fact that he is well within an age where WRs regress. Granted not at the pace we see RBs regress but there is regression nonetheless (articles that speak about it can be found here, here and here).
The risk this year in drafting Calvin Johnson is more about the low floor and reduced ceiling he has rather than the actual draft capital you will be laying out. Last year he missed 3 games through injury and put up stinkers in another two that he played while injured. That’s 5 games he did not help you in last year. That’s an exceedingly low floor for a high draft pick.
Johnson will be 30 years old before the second month of the season begins. If you agree with the articles about WR and age decline, from a production point of view his output even if he maintains health will decrease.
So you have a player with a high injury probability (floor) and the reduced production (ceiling). Let’s discuss the opportunity cost. When you draft Megatron in the second round you are passing on players like Cobb, Jeffery, Hilton, Green and Hopkins who are all in the ascendant stage of their careers while Johnson is in the decline phase. They arguably have higher floors and potentially even higher ceilings.
In conclusion, there will most likely be games in 2015 that Calvin Johnson will dominate. However, in the second round of your draft this year there are several players who are heading towards the peak of their careers and that give you higher floors and ceilings and that will give you a much better chance of winning your fantasy league this season.
