The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Derrick Henry during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
I thought we’d start today’s regression talk with a look at target data for tight ends. Five weeks of information about how tight ends are being used — or not used — in their respective offenses should give us a good idea of which guys to lean on in the coming weeks.
Targets per route run (TPRR) is usually a solid indicator of which pass catchers are getting open, commanding targets, and earning weekly roles in their offenses. Context, as always, is critical here. TPRR can help us identify regression candidates, both the negative and positive kind.
Tight End Target Per Route Run
Noah Fant: 33 percent
Jake Ferguson : 32 percent
Darren Waller: 25 percent
Jonnu Smith: 25 percent
Harold Fannin: 25 percent
Trey McBride: 24 percent
Evan Engram: 24 percent
Brock Bowers: 24 percent
Dalton Kincaid: 24 percent
Tyler Warren: 24 percent
Sam LaPorta: 23 percent
Brenton Strange: 23 percent
Dalton Schultz: 22 percent
Juwan Johnson: 21 percent
◆ Fant, who’s been dealing with a brain injury, was active in Week 5 against Detroit but logged just eight pass routes while Mike Gesicki operated as the Bengals’ de facto TE1. This is just a note that Fant has commanded targets at a high rate in case he stumbles into the TE1 role at some point this year.
◆ Waller is a Thing. He continued drawing targets at a good clip in Week 5 against Carolina, while running almost 70 percent of the routes in the Miami offense. No Tyreek Hill means Waller could function as Tua’s No. 3 guy behind De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle. His 11.6 air yards per target suggests Waller will be slightly more high-variance than top tight ends seeing a bunch of scammy targets (the Ferguson Types).
◆ Even after Njoku saw 11 targets in Week 5, his TPRR stands at an ordinary 18 percent in 2025. That’s well short of Fannin. The Browns tight ends are operating at an almost identical depth, in case you were wondering.
◆ Kincaid’s route participation leaves something to be desired but whatever. I wrote in the spring that Kincaid stood out as a consistent target eater in the Buffalo offense, and he’s done just that through five weeks. I don’t think Kincaid is Getting Away with anything right now.
◆ Engram has run just 56 percent of the team’s pass routes since returning to the lineup in Week 4. Maybe he’s still coming back from his injury, or maybe Sean Payton lost interest in his Joker, as he’s wont to do. That Engram is being targeted on nearly a quarter of his routes could mean something for fantasy if his route rate ever gets to the 80-90 percent range.
◆ The beautiful Juwan Scam is totally over now that Taysom Hill is back, with an offensive package that’s frankly bigger than anyone has ever seen. Foster “Island of Doctor” Moreau is back too. Johnson over the past two weeks has been targeted on a miserable 11 percent of his routes. The time to trade away Johnson has come and gone. It’s more over than anything has ever been over.
Tight End Target Per Route Run
Mason Taylor: 19 percent TPRR
Theo Johnson: 17 percent
Zach Ertz: 16 percent
Cole Kmet: 15 percent
Davis Allen: 14 percent
Colston Loveland: 14 percent
Tyler Higbee: 13 percent
Dawson Knox: 13 percent
Cade Otton: 11 percent
Drew Sample: 11 percent
◆ No tight end has more targets or receptions than Mason Taylor over the past two games thanks to some of the most glorious garbage time script you’ll ever witness. One of the league’s ten fastest offenses, the Jets have run more offensive snaps than all but four teams over the past couple weeks. They’re passing at a 67 percent clip while trailing this season. Like I said: glorious. Taylor has benefited bigly. His 71 routes over those two games rank third among tight ends. What’s better: He’s been targeted on 27 percent of those routes. It’s the kind of thing you see from an every-week fantasy starter, though it hinges on the Jets continuing to be the most wretched team in pro sports. It’s a decent bet.
◆ It’s not easy to parse whether Theo Johnson is Getting Away With It over the Giants’ past two games, with Jaxson Dart under center. Of course the touchdowns can’t last (he has three TDs on nine catches over those two games). But Johnson has seen a target on a juicy 25 percent of his routes while running a route on 64 percent of Dart’s drop backs. A 25 percent TPRR can work if Johnson is going to have a somewhat depressed route participation. New York passing on a meager 40 percent of their plays in neutral game script will make it tough to rely on any pass catcher in Brian Daboll’s Funeral March, otherwise known as the Giants offense.
◆ It might be over for Ertz in 12-team leagues. In Jayden Daniels’ return to the lineup in Week 5, Ertz logged the second most routes among Washington pass catchers and was targeted once, good for a TPRR of 5 percent. Deebo Samuel continues to eat Ertz’s lunch in the short and intermediate areas, which makes sense considering my dad refuses to believe Hefty Deebo is not a tight end. Probably you can do better than Ertz, one of our finest millennials.
◆ Otton had a nice matchup in Week 5 against a Seahawks defense that allows the league’s most targets per game to opposing tight ends. Otton came through with four grabs for 81 yards against Seattle. Don’t fall for it though. Otton, known colloquially as Cardio Cade, is still out there running around with little chance to see the ball.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Brock Purdy (SF)
Analyzing Purdy right now is a fool’s errand because we don’t really know how banged up he is, and whether he can operate as usual. As a certified fool, I’m willing to try.
If Purdy is under center in Week 6 against the Bucs, he’ll be facing an extreme pass funnel defense with some (potential) good regression coming his way. Purdy has just three touchdowns on ten inside-the-ten pass attempts this season in a San Francisco offense that has been among the NFL’s pass heaviest in the red zone. Combine Purdy’s inside-the-ten attempts with Mac Jones’ inside-the-ten throws and you have 17, which would lead the NFL through Week 5.
Missing red zone dominator George Kittle (groin) is an outsized factor here. Maybe we’ll have to wait until Kittle is back to enjoy the spoils of Purdy’s coming touchdown regression. Or maybe not. It’s (likely) coming either way.
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR)
I know the past few weeks have been something of a letdown for McMillan drafters who go into every Sunday praying to any god that will listen that their precious rookie overcomes the toxic waste site that is the Carolina offense.
Bryce Young stinks. The Brycessaince, as I yelled from my rooftop a couple Sundays ago, is over. He’s now on his way to the only role he would ever have in the NFL: Career journeyman backup, or maybe a quarterback coach. I still think Young can feed McMillan enough to get him there for fantasy purposes though.
TMac with a huge gain
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) September 14, 2025
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/QoFO4Wo9Y5
McMillan over the past four weeks has the eighth most air yards among wideouts and the third highest air yards share (54 percent). He’s been targeted on a hearty 27 percent of his pass routes over those four games. You know by now he’s running cold on touchdowns, which add up to precisely zero through Week 5. The problem might be that McMillan — clearly the Panthers’ best player — has just one inside-the-ten target this season. Braelon Allen has more. Hunter Long has more. Not Hunter Henry, Hunter Long.
Don’t get impatient with McMillan in 10-team leagues and shallower 12-team formats. His air yards won’t feed your family, but they might when he magically turns them into real, tangible, edible receiving yards.
Chase Brown (CIN)
The most devastating fantasy selection not named Brock Bowers, Chase’s Week 5 output — 21 rushing yards and seven catches for 21 yards — had a silver lining if you lean in real close and squint until your head hurts.
Brown was targeted on 42 percent of his pass routes against Detroit in runaway negative game script. That’s a wild rate. Through five games, Brown has seen a target on 29 percent of his routes, one of the highest rates among running backs. That Brown continues to split routes with Samaje Perine likely means he remains an RB3 for now. Perhaps the Joe Flacco era in Cincinnati will bring more check downs for Brown as the Bengals play out the string in their lost 2025 season.
Calvin Ridley (TEN)
My interns saw me writing about Ridley as a positive regression guy and tried to tackle me. We wrestled for a while and got tired. My shoulder kinda hurts now.
I take no pleasure in telling you Ridley is once again doing that thing where he devours air yards and leaves you cold every Sunday afternoon. Ridley over the past three weeks has more air yards than all but nine wideouts. His 37 percent air yards share over those three games is well north of Elic Ayomanor (21 percent), who for a while was asserting himself as the Titans’ top receiver.
The unspeakably terrible Tennessee offense has given Cam Ward very little opportunity to chuck it downfield like he did so well at Miami. Ward through five starts has a grand total of 11 deep attempts, ranking 27th out of 31 qualifying QBs.
Someone should tell Brian Callahan to read the Regression Files because his quarterback has been quite good on downfield shots: Only nine guys had a higher completion rate over expected on attempts of more than 20 yards downfield. It leaves a glimmer of hope — so faint you’ll need one of those billion dollar telescopes to see it — that Ridley (and maybe Ayomanor) can start cashing in on their so-far-meaningless air yards.
Brian, if you’re listening: Let Cam cook.
Cam Ward (TEN)
Speaking of Cam cooking, the regression levy has to break some time for the beleaguered rookie trapped in a predictable, vanilla Titans offense coached by some of the least creative guys in recent NFL history.
Ward’s 1.2 percent touchdown rate is the stuff of nightmares. It’s the lowest TD rate in the NFL this season. ESPN’s Kevin Clark might cry if his Miami guy doesn’t start regressing in the right direction. No one wants to see that. Don’t make Kevin cry.
Ward ranks eighth in drop backs this season. He ranks tenth in attempts. The Titans offense runs at the league’s fourth highest pace through Week 5.
If Ward’s touchdown luck (variance) is going to change this week against a poor Raiders secondary allowing the NFL’s fourth highest completion rate over expected, he’s probably going to have to do it from outside the red zone. The Titans this season are averaging a league-low 1.8 red zone possessions per game. It’s bleak. Real bleak.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Ryan Flournoy (DAL)
Even in my disgusting 14-team leagues with deep benches — the kind of leagues where you fall to your knees and weep in the Target checkout line when you land Malik Washington off waivers — Flournoy was unrostered headed into Week 5. So I don’t want to hear anything from the Not In My League crowd as they march in the streets every Tuesday.
Flournoy in Week 5 against the Jets stepped in for Kavontae Turpin (ankle) and caught six of eight targets for 114 yards. He ran a route on 55 percent of the Cowboys’ drop backs, and here’s the important part: Flournoy was targeted on 44 percent of his pass routes. Against the Jets he took in 36 percent of the team’s air yards, just a smidge behind team leader George Pickens. It’s not a weak profile. It’s quite strong, actually.
46 for Flo 😮💨
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) October 5, 2025
📺: #DALvsNYJ on FOX
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/RmDxAeCG4M pic.twitter.com/1KYemvTtma
Maybe it shouldn’t be a shock that Flournoy commanded targets at such a ridiculous clip in Week 5. In the 2025 preseason he saw a target on 28 percent of his routes. I had no interns looks powerfully into Flournoy’s college numbers and they found the following: Flournoy in his final season at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks has a TPRR of 31 percent. He’s good at this thing.
If Turpin returns in Week 6, maybe Flournoy goes back to the bench. Or maybe the genie is all the way out of the bottle and the Cowboys are ready to ramp up playing time for the guy who came out of nowhere to lead the team in receiving against New York. Though he’s not incredibly likely to go over 100 yards every week for the rest of the year, Flournoy is worth an add in the sickest leagues.
Rashid Shaheed (NO)
A wideout with Shaheed’s profile is never going to escape the negative portion of this column. You knew he’d be here after he went off in Week 5 for 114 yards and a score on four catches against the Giants. So it goes.
Shaheed didn’t exactly have a banner air yards outing against Big Blue. His 80 air yards accounted for 36 percent of the Saints’ air yards and ranked 35th among receivers in Week 5. Shaheed made the most of it. You gotta hand it to him.
SPENCER RATTLER. RASHID SHAHEED. 87 YARDS.
— NFL (@NFL) October 5, 2025
NYGvsNO on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/IQCgJOs010
Through Week 5, Shaheed has seen 27 percent of the Saints’ air yards — behind Chris Olave at 37 percent — and ranks 40th in total wideout air yards. At best, he’s going to be so high variance you’ll want to retire from fantasy football and live in the woods, where you’ll be unburdened by the agonizing prospect of benching Shaheed on the day he puts up elite numbers.
Romeo Doubs (GB)
I know. You’re kicking yourself this week for benching Doubs against the sieve commonly known as the Dallas Cowboys secondary in Week 4, before Green Bay’s bye week.
Doubs against the Cowboys had six receptions, 58 yards, and all three of Jordan Love’s touchdowns. You have been tormented by those 25 beautiful fantasy points sitting on your bench. You may never be the same.
It will never happen again. So you have that going for you, which is nice.
Doubs’ Week 4 usage was fine, but far from spectacular. He led the team with a humble 18.5 percent target share, seeing a look from Love on 24 percent of his pass routes. He happened to see three of the Packers’ four end zone targets and cashed in on every one of them. So it goes. This isn’t to dismiss Doubs as a non-entity in 14-team fantasy formats. He should be in those lineups with Jayden Reed sidelined for a while.
Matthew Golden, who has zero on-field awareness and who never commanded targets in college, is continuing in that grand personal tradition in the pros. Tucker Kraft had one good game; fit him for his Hall of Fame jacket, I suppose. Doubs is probably the WR1 in this insanely run-heavy Green Bay offense for now. Don’t force him into 12-team lineups though.
Jared Goff (DET)
This doesn’t constitute a call to drop everything and bench Goff in Week 6 against the Chiefs. But as your statistical regression spirit guide, I have no choice but to tell you Goff’s touchdown rate through five games has reached 8.4 percent, the second highest in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson.
No quarterback, in fact, has a higher rate of fantasy points per drop back since Week 2. Ten percent of Goff’s attempts have gone for touchdowns over that span. My deified spreadsheets tell me he’s likely to cool off in the coming weeks in a Lions offense passing at a lowly 50 percent rate in neutral situations.
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)
Rodgers is third in the NFL — trailing only Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff — in touchdown rate. He’s thrown for a score on 7.5 percent of his attempts through Week 4. Four of his five inside-the-ten attempts have gone for touchdowns, and six of his ten red zone completions have been scores.
I will bravely say this can’t last and you should feel bad about getting away with it in superflex leagues where you greedily drafted Old Man Rodgers. In a Pittsburgh offense that ranks as the league’s sixth run heaviest unit, the TD luck (variance) will run dry one day soon.
