The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
We’ll start as we usually do, with a look at recent trends in total team air yard production and what that might mean for Week 15.
Most Air Yards Per Game (Week 10-14)
Cowboys: 339 air yards/game
Texans: 335
Cardinals: 331
Bengals: 328
Patriots: 310
Chiefs: 289
Packers: 274
Bears: 269
Jaguars: 243
Bucs: 232
◆ Dallas pours on the air yards every week for a few reasons. Their defense is (usually) porous, forcing the team to chase points in the second half; they remain pass heavy, going over their expected pass rate in all but one game this season; and they run a bunch of offensive plays, averaging 68 per week, the second most in the NFL. It’s a big reason CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are locked-in WR1s right now. And it’s why Ryan Flournoy should be in a lot of 12-team fantasy lineups this week if Lamb (concussion) is sidelined. Flournnoy was targeted on 35 percent of his pass routes last week against the Lions. He took in a stunning 170 air yards, fifth-most among all receivers in Week 14. Flournoy, thanks to the air yards bonanza that is the Cowboys offense, has top-12 upside in Week 15 if Lamb sits.
◆ Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins are apparently splitting the downfield role in the pass-first New England offense. In Week 13, the last time the Patriots played, Hollins saw 25 percent of the team’s air yards while Boutte led the way with a 27 percent rate. Probably there are enough air yards to go around here — thanks to Drake Maye playing the part of an old-school QB who actually throws the ball beyond the sticks — for one of these guys to get there on a weekly basis. I would bet on Boutte for now.
◆ Brian Thomas Jr. doesn’t have anything close to the reliably fantasy-friendly role we thought we’d have in the Jacksonville offense this season. He has something percolating over the past two weeks though. Thomas has 196 air yards over those two games — good for a team-leading 34 percent air yards share. That at least makes the enormously disappointing BTJ a high-variance WR3 with definite upside for the rest of the season. He’s been targeted on a meager 17 percent of his pass routes over those two games. Hence the variance. Jakobi Meyers and his 26 percent target per route rate over the past two games is the Jaguars’ locked-in WR1.
◆ The disturbing string of Tee Higgins head injuries continued in Week 14 against the Bills. If he doesn’t clear the league’s concussion protocol and misses the Bengals’ Week 15 game against Baltimore, a range of pass catchers become (very) interesting for fantasy purposes. Mitchell Tinsley ran 60 percent of the routes and had 33 percent of the team’s air yards in Week 13 with Higgins sidelined. He’s the upside swing in deeper formats if Higgins is out in Week 15. Andrei Iosivas was more of a factor when Ja’Marr Chase was out in Week 12, largely due to Isoivas’ role as a short-area and intermediate target for Joe Burrow. Mike Gesicki would also see a bump in opportunity. Tinsley, with a 26 percent targets per route run rate over the past three weeks, interests me most if Higgins is out.
◆ The Texans are producing outrageous amounts of weekly air yards both with and without CJ Stroud under center. Even in a defensive slug fest on Sunday night against Kansas City, the Texans produced 260 air yards, the tenth most of Week 14. Jayden Higgins is seeing a nice chunk of those air yards — 27 percent over Houston’s past three games — but only running around 60 percent of the routes. Only 14 receivers in the NFL have more air yards than Higgins since Week 12. Higgins has been targeted on 31 percent of his routes over that three-game stretch; it’s the sort of target commanding profile that can make a wideout viable as a high-variance option without running anything close to a full route rate.
Fewest Air Yards Per Game (Week 10-14)
Colts: 207
Chargers: 198
Titans: 195
Panthers: 184
Steelers: 172
Dolphins: 156
◆ Something weird happened with the Steelers in Week 14’s upset of the Ravens: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith had Aaron Rodgers let it rip (relatively speaking). The Steelers had more than 200 air yards in a game for the first time in 2025, with DK Metcalf seeing the bulk of it (88 percent, to be precise). Rodgers had four completions of more than 20 yards after going without a deep completion for nearly two months. An uptick in downfield throwing would give Metcalf the opportunity necessary to achieve top-15 numbers, or something in that range.
◆ The Bolts had their second run heaviest game of the season in Monday night’s win over the down-bad Eagles. Their run heaviest outing came the week before. Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman has done the only thing he could do in the absence of franchise lynchpin Joe Alt: He’s establishing the run as if “Happy Days” was the No. 1 show on TV. That could be good for Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton; it’s definitely not good for the team’s pass catchers. Without many air yards or targets to go around, Ladd McConkey becomes the Chargers’ only startable pass catcher in the fantasy playoffs. The Chargers’ early-down pass rate has fallen from 65 percent in the season’s first half to 45 percent of their past three games. That’s quite the shift.
◆ Miami is (sensibly) the run heaviest team in the NFL since Week 7, when Mike McDaniel abandoned the pass game and made De’Von Achane the centerpiece of the offense. So few air yards per game means everyone besides Jaylen Waddle will be nothing but touchdown-dependent deep league flex options. That includes Darren Waller, who’s splitting routes with Greg Dulcich. There’s not much to see here for fantasy purposes.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Emeka Egbuka (TB)
Folks on my Friday start-sit live stream were begging me for my blessing in benching Egbuka in Week 14 against the Saints. I said no, play the guy, and he went out and drew 11 targets and 173 air yards, the sixth most of any wideout in Week 14. That he came away with two catches for 15 measly yards is beside the point, though Egbuka drafters might not feel the same about this bloodless process-over-results analysis.
I think you need to keep rolling with Egbuka in Week 15 against a lifeless Atlanta defense. I know Mike Evans is expected back, and that’s quite problematic for Egbuka considering his targets per route run falls from 29 percent with Evans sidelined to 21 percent with Evans in the lineup.
Tampa’s offense was 8 percent above its expected pass rate when these teams faced off in Week 1. That generated 37 drop backs for Baker Mayfield and six targets for Egbuka (he made the most of it with two touchdowns). I doubt you have a better wideout option on your bench now that the Colts and Jets pass catchers have been wiped out of fantasy relevance thanks to quarterback injuries. I can’t bring myself to bench a guy with the NFL’s fourth most air yards. Call me old fashioned. Or better yet, don’t.
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
Hurts drafters are talking to their therapists this week about benching the Eagles quarterback in favor of Tyler Shough or Bryce Young or maybe Shedeur Sanders (more on him below). Fresh off five turnovers against the Chargers on Monday night, Hurts looks like a player you cannot possibly rely on in the fantasy football postseason.
I would urge some breathing exercises or a walk in the woods — whatever would get you to not bench Hurts for a waiver wire QB in Week 15. To give you an idea of how weird it got for Hurts against the Chargers, consider he averaged 0.13 fantasy points per drop back, which ranked 29th out of 32 qualifying QBs on the week. Hurts had averaged 0.63 fantasy points per drop back going into Week 14; only Josh Allen and Jaxson Dart were ahead of him.
I can’t endorse benching a quarterback whose team has an implied total of 24.75 points going against a Raiders defense that pressures the passer at one of the NFL’s lowest rates (18 percent) and has allowed the eighth highest drop back EPA this season.
Hurts ran ice cold against the Bolts because A.J. Brown couldn’t haul in perfectly thrown downfield balls. Philly’s 391 total team air yards in Week 14 was the second most behind only Dallas. That it resulted in 240 scoreless yards is a fluke, I think.
Don’t panic on Hurts. The Regression Reaper looms large over the entire Eagles offense this week.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Shedeur Sanders (CLE)
By playing Sanders in the negative regression space I’m not dismissing what he did last week against the Titans (364 yards, four total touchdowns). He made a handful of key throws and continued pushing the ball downfield in stark contrast to Dillon Gabriel.
I mentioned on Tuesday’s Rotoworld Football Show that Sanders has been particularly impressive on intermediate attempts (10-20 air yards) in his three starts: No one has a higher adjusted yards per attempt on those throws and only eight QBs have a higher completion rate over expected. It’s a good sign for Sanders and the Browns. Whatever he is, Sanders is a massive upgrade over the weak-armed, risk-averse Gabriel.
Context, I think, is important here. The Browns had 293 total team air yards last week against Tennessee due in part to fantasy-friendly point-chasing game script in the second half. The Browns in Sanders’ first two starts averaged 149 total air yards per game, about half of what they produced against the Titans. They were also 10 percent above their expected pass rate, easily the team’s pass heaviest outing of the season. Maybe that’s related to the Browns’ growing trust in Sanders. Who knows.
It’s tough to project a similar air yards output for Week 15 against a Bears defense that has quietly become a reliable run funnel unit, meaning opponents lean toward the ground game against them. I would guess that’s what Kevin Stefanski wants to do: Establish the run, limit Sanders’ drop backs, and rely on Cleveland’s defense to come through. That 70 percent of the Browns’ passing yards have come after the catch in Sanders’ starts should make us at least somewhat skeptical of his fantasy production. The advanced metrics aren’t kind to him: Only Cam Ward has a lower drop back success rate over the past three weeks. This suggests Sanders is (very) high variance for now.
I’d say he’s a dandy superflex play against Chicago. Don’t get weird with Shedeur in one-QB formats though.
Tony Pollard (TEN)
It was one of those things that humbles every fantasy nerd: Pollard going ballistic against the Browns’ elite front seven, one that has snuffed out opposing runners all season.
Pollard’s 65-yard touchdown sprint helped matters, of course, as did his 86 yards after contact, tied with Saquon Barkley for the most of Week 14. Pollard had averaged 37.5 rush yards after contact headed into Week 14’s matchup with the Browns. The nerds are calling it an outlier performance.
There is a path to Pollard being a startable option in 12-team leagues, however. Pollard dominated the Tennessee backfield in Week 14, taking 25 of 33 running back carries in a game that saw the Titans go 11 percent below their expected pass rate — their run-heaviest game of the 2025 season.
If that (dominant) usage holds and the Titans are able to create neutral or positive game script this week against the Niners, Pollard has a shot to push for 20 touches. San Francisco’s defense is allowing the NFL’s highest rushing success rate (55 percent), after all. The risk comes with sideways game script: If the 49ers get out to a big lead, it’s Tyjae Spears who would likely lead the Titans backfield in touches after he ran 42 percent of the routes last week against the Browns to Pollard’s meager 10 percent route rate. Spears has been targeted on 30 percent of his routes over the past month, a strong rate for any pass catcher.
