The fantasy football playoffs are here, so it’s time to update our playoff defense (DST) rankings. These rankings went live last week, but we have to update every week to account for changes in matchup quality and major injuries like Daniel Jones’ season-ending injury, the Browns being down three starting offensive linemen, or the Jets potentially turning to Brady Cook at quarterback.
To help with that, I’ve created a Playoff Score to rank the defenses for Weeks 15-17. I took my standard BOD Formula (pasted below), which I use to calculate the most trustworthy fantasy defenses. Then I input each team’s opponents for three weeks of the fantasy playoffs. That means the Playoff Score takes into account each team’s fantasy success over the past six weeks, underlying metrics from that period, and their upcoming schedule.
How Do I Use These Rankings?
Since I use recent fantasy points scored per game and also use an offense’s points allowed to opposing defenses as part of this formula, that means that these rankings will likely change incrementally week after week as teams change their overall performance and offensive rankings change, which impacts the ease of the matchup. As a result, my advice for how to best use this article is to get a sense of which teams are set up best for playoff success, but use the color-coded chart below to try and find two defenses that you can put on your roster to rotate matchups and avoid having to start any defenses in a subpar matchup.
Yes, I think now is the time to have two DSTs on your roster.
The matchups highlighted in green are the 10 easiest matchups for fantasy defenses, according to performance over the last month (teams ranked 32nd to 23rd), and the matchups highlighted in red are the 10 hardest matchups (10th to first, obviously). You’ll see some additional comments below that help to clarify some of those rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (3rd DOWN CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
Important Rankings Notes
Before we dive into the rankings, there are a couple of quick notes about how each team is ranked as an opponent that you need to know.
- I used the average fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses over the last month to get the most accurate representation of how the teams are playing right now.
- When a team’s ranking over the last four weeks differed drastically from its season-long ranking and didn’t have a major injury to blame (Titans, Seahawks, Jaguars), I averaged their ranking over the last four weeks with their season-long ranking to try to put together a more accurate picture, so that’s why you may see some duplicate rankings.
- The Bengals’ ranking I manually adjusted to reflect how I believe the team will be impacted by Joe Burrow being under center. From a data standpoint, the Bengals have been a great matchup for opposing defenses, but I no longer believe that will be the case with Burrow back.
- I did not make a similar adjustment for the Ravens because they have been poor on offense even with Lamar Jackson back. I don’t believe he’s healthy.
- I downgraded the Chiefs’ offense slightly because they just put their left tackle on IR, and they have two other linemen injured, so I feel that needed to be reflected.
- I ranked the Jets as if they will have Brady Cook under center because I don’t think Tyrod Taylor is healthy, and I’d be surprised if he started the majority of the remaining games.
- I also updated the Colts’ ranking to reflect an offense that starts a 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback.
Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings
Playoff Defense Rankings | ||||||
| Rank | DST | BOD Rank | Week 15 Opponent | Week 16 Opponent | Week 17 Opponent | Playoff Score |
Not only have the Texans been one of my favorite defenses on the season, but they get three really good matchups in Weeks 15-17, especially since the Cardinals will be without starting left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. It doesn’t get much better than that.
The Rams and Seahawks are also two defenses that I’ve loved using this season, but they don’t have the best schedule. The Rams have a matchup with the Lions in Week 15 that we’d like to avoid, and the Seahawks get a matchup against the Rams in Week 16 that isn’t great, in addition to a mediocre matchup against the Colts. Still, these are defenses that we’ve come to rely on and trust, so I could convince myself to use them every week if I didn’t have other options. WEEK 15 UPDATE: Rams have been bumped to the tier below.
The Eagles have come on a fantasy defense of late, but they’re a tick below the top three, as you can see from the Playoff Score. The matchup against the Raiders is great, but going into Buffalo in Week 17 isn’t ideal. The matchup against the Commanders could be influenced by whether or not we get Jayden Daniels back for that game.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Seahawks paired with Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs, Bills, or Falcons
- Eagles paired with Lions, Saints, Steelers, or Colts
| Rank | DST | BOD Rank | Week 15 Opponent | Week 16 Opponent | Week 17 Opponent | Playoff Score |
We’ve been relying on the Browns’ defense most of the year, and we’d like to keep doing so, but matchups against Chicago and Buffalo aren’t ideal. We like the Steelers matchup, and if you wanted to use the Browns for all games, I wouldn’t blame you, especially since the weather this weekend is on pace to be absolutely frigid so that Bears game could have very little offense.
The Jaguars’ schedule got a major boost due to quarterback injuries. They could now face Brady Cook and Phillip Rivers in two of their last three games. I wouldn’t go anywhere near playing them against the Broncos, but two out of three ain’t bad.
The Dolphins are another defense that has been trending up of late and has a decent schedule. I don’t love the idea of playing them against a healthy Bengals team, and there’s a good chance that Mike Evans is also back for the Bucs in Week 17. I’m monitoring this because there’s a chance that I don’t want to use the Dolphins in those final two weeks, but they’re averaging 8.4 fantasy points over game over the last two months, so we can’t ignore that.
The Bucs schedule is a fine one, but we should just be warned that it looks more enticing on paper than it has been in reality of late. Miami has seemed to figure out its offensive gameplan over the last few weeks, and it’s no longer an ideal matchup. Some of that has been due to opponents, and I certainly don’t think Miami is a juggernaut, but they are allowing under five fantasy points per game over the last month and have some talented playmakers on offense. We also just saw the Panthers outright beat the Rams, so you never know what to expect from them. This schedule is a bit trickier than we would have expected a couple of weeks ago.
For example, the Saints and Bills make solid defenses to pair with more trustworthy units. Both of them have been defenses that we’ve used with success in the past, but they aren’t set-it-and-forget-it types. There is some risk against the Panthers, and the Titans have been playing a little better of late, but the Saints feel like a safe floor play regardless.
The Cowboys’ defense remains inconsistent, as evidenced by Thursday night’s game, but they are a better unit than they were months ago. They also get a pretty enticing schedule for the fantasy playoffs, especially if Jayden Daniels were to be shut down with Washington not in contention.
The Patriots had been almost as trustworthy as the top three defenses, but then Milton Williams was put on the IR, and this defense has really felt the loss. When you pair that with a schedule that is not too appealing, apart from the final game of the season, you get the Patriots down here. Of course, the Ravens and Bills are usually offenses we don’t want to attack, but they are both playing below their standards right now, so perhaps you believe in that regression and want to chance going against them with a good defense?
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Browns paired with Cowboys, Chiefs, Bears, Dolphins, or Saints
- Patriots paired with Chiefs, Dolphins, Bears, or Cowboys
- Rams paired with Cowboys, Bears, Chiefs, or Dolphins
- Cowboys paired with Browns, Lions, Saints, Bucs, Steelers, or Colts
- Bucs paired with Lions, Browns, Saints, or Steelers
- Saints paired with Chiefs, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bears
| Rank | DST | BOD Rank | Week 15 Opponent | Week 16 Opponent | Week 17 Opponent | Playoff Score |
We’re now getting outside of the most consistently solid defenses, so you’re just hoping to take advantage of good matchups here. As a result, there aren’t really any pairings listed below. You’re really only using these defenses as a one-off, unless you’re going to trust the Chiefs in that Week 15 game against the Chargers, and then you could probably move them in the tier above. But I just can’t start them there, given that they average just 4.7 fantasy points per game over the last two months.
The Lions are really banged up on defense, but we know they have a great pass rush, as we saw on Thursday. You certainly don’t want to play them against the Rams, but the schedule for Weeks 16-17 is really nice, and the Lions could be a great play those weeks.
The Bears and Broncos have been good defenses, but the schedules don’t look great for them. You certainly want to use the Bears against the Browns, and the Broncos could be usable for the final two weeks, but are you going to trust a defense against the Chiefs in the fantasy finals? I can see it, but it makes me a bit uneasy. Still, these are not bad defenses to pair with somebody else.
The rest of the teams are all matchup plays. The Ravens have been a solid defense lately, but their schedule is not good. The Falcons will likely be a solid play against the Cardinals, and I can see using the Chargers against the Texans, Steelers against the Browns, or the Jaguars against the Jets.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS
- Broncos paired with Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, or Bears
- Bills paired with Chiefs, Cowboys, Bears, or Dolphins
- Lions paired with Chiefs, Dolphins, Panthers, or Bears
- Bears paired with Lions, Saints, Bills, or Cowboys
| Rank | DST | BOD Rank | Week 15 Opponent | Week 16 Opponent | Week 17 Opponent | Playoff Score |
I would try not to use any of these defenses for the fantasy playoffs.
Yes, the Giants’ schedule is great, but are you really going to trust them in the fantasy playoffs?
