Fantasy Golf Rankings: Top 150 for 2022 Part 3

This is part three of a three-edition series that looks at the top 150 fantasy golf options for the 2022 schedule.

I grade these golfers based on short-term and long-term baseline performance, combined with expected number of PGA TOUR starts, and a bit of secret sauce.

If you miss the first or second column, you can check them out here:

PART ONE (101st through 150th)
PART TWO (51st through 100th)

As a reminder, here are the two key time frames I use to initiate my ranking process:

6-Month SG Rank = worldwide strokes gained per round, adjusted to field strength, over the last six months.
2-Year SG Rank = worldwide strokes gained per round, adjusted to field strength, over the last twenty-four months.

50. Matthias Schwab

6-Month SG Rank:

52
2-Year SG Rank: 49

Notes: He’s been crushing it over in Europe since 2017 and even reached as high as 78th in the OWGR as recently as January 2020. His game was less consistent after the COVID lockdowns but certainly picked up steam again in 2021. That included a pair of top 10s in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn his PGA TOUR card. So what are his strengths? In 11 measured PGA TOUR events, he has averaged -1.8 strokes gained putting, so it certainly isn’t putting. However, he has been better than field average in fairways hit, driving distance, and greens in regulation. I’m excited to see what that kind of ball-striking can produce as soon as he gets more comfortable on the PGA TOUR.

49. Justin Rose

6-Month SG Rank:

50
2-Year SG Rank: 42

Notes: You are banking on pedigree if you invest in Rose at this stage in his career. You certainly aren’t chasing his 2021 season because he lost strokes tee-to-green in 56 percent of his measured rounds last season. The Englishman has now finished outside of the top 90 FedExCup in back-to-back season but his median FEC finish over the last five seasons is 26th. Similar to Jason Day, you need to weigh the upside from the not-so-distant past before you ignore him completely.

48. Alex Noren

6-Month SG Rank:

40
2-Year SG Rank: 53

Notes: The Swede was someone who always delivered the goods but never gave you his full attention because he was always splitting time between the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour. That changed last year, likely due to COVID, and resulted in 25 events played for Noren. He turned 12 of those into top 25s and posted a career-best 33rd in the FedExCup race. We should expect more of the same for the 39-year-old but there is also the chance that he opens up his international schedule again in 2022 which would put a limit on his number of PGA TOUR starts.

47. Lucas Herbert

6-Month SG Rank:

41
2-Year SG Rank: 58

Notes: The 26-year-old Aussie didn’t take long to showcase his potential on the PGA TOUR. He won the Butterfield Bermuda Championshin in what was just the third start of his rookie season. Okay, it’s not actually his rookie season because he landed 11 starts last season, but it is Herbert’s first full season with a PGA TOUR card. Herbert has hit fewer fairways than the field in 21-of-24 PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry Tour events played and also landed fewer greens than the field in 17 of those 24 events. His bomb-and-putt approach puts him in the boom-or-bust category from a week-to-week perspective.

46. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

6-Month SG Rank:

47
2-Year SG Rank: 24

Notes: It’s been a rapid climb up the world ranks for the South African. He ended 2018 ranked 521st in the OWGR but now sits at 48th. He ended the year with top 16s in six of his last 10 worldwide starts. He’s quickly established himself as one of the shorter hitters so less-than-driver courses will be the most likely spots for him to surge.

45. Ian Poulter

6-Month SG Rank:

22
2-Year SG Rank: 34

Notes: The Englishman posted a career-high (21) in PGA TOUR starts for a single season. It resulted in 17 cuts made with seven of those doubling as top 25s. He was 77th in the FedExCup race but as you see from his baseline ranks above, he actually underperformed to his actual performance. The 45-year-old is getting up there in age but his game doesn’t rely on power so he’s not showing much sign of a decline. He has now posted top-90 FedExCup seasons in 12 of the last 13 seasons so we can continue to rely on that until his game starts to dip.

44. Mito Pereira

6-Month SG Rank:

29
2-Year SG Rank: 79

Notes: The Chilean played his way onto the PGA TOUR via Battlefield Promotion and didn’t skip a beat with the transition. Pereira gained 4 or more strokes off-the-ee in three of his 10 measured events last season and also gained 5 or more strokes on approach in three events. That kind of elite ball-striking potential is going to lead to a lot of top 10s.

43. Marc Leishman

6-Month SG Rank:

51
2-Year SG Rank: 78

Notes: Leishman struggled to find his old form after the COVID break but certainly started to flash hints in the fall. The Aussie ended the year with top 20s in three of his last four starts with two of those doubling as top 5s. If your league uses last year’s performance to set salaries then Leishman is a strong buy because he made it to East Lake in each of the four seasons prior to last year where he settled for 42nd in the FedExCup standings.

42. Seamus Power

6-Month SG Rank:

23
2-Year SG Rank: 94

Notes: He finally broke his maiden last season didn’t slow down much after the big win. Overall, Power posted finishes of T21 or better in 11 of his last 16 starts to end 2021. There is where you need to decide whether to trust the short-term or long-term data. I usually lean longer term but I also can’t ignore that surge since it lasted for more than six months, it wasn’t just a hot streak for a month or two.

41. Shane Lowry

6-Month SG Rank:

19
2-Year SG Rank: 33

Notes: Like so many others, Lowry posted a career-high in terms of PGA TOUR starts in a single season (21). You can thank COVID for that. Will he remain fully focused on the PGA TOUR in 2022? If so, his floor is probably a top-50 golfer with top-15 upside. He ranked 19th on TOUR in strokes gained tee-to-green last season. The downside comes if he decides to take on more DP World Tour starts again in 2022, lightening his PGA TOUR load.

40. Matthew Wolff

6-Month SG Rank:

45
2-Year SG Rank: 69

Notes: The youngster wasn’t ready mentally for PGA TOUR life so he took some time off last season. That time off served him well as he looked fresh again upon return. That was especially true in the fall when he rattled off four straight top 20s to start the new season. With a nice headstart in the FedExCup race, it wouldn’t be surprising if Wolff made it to East Lake for the first time in his young career. His top-heavy finishes are what make him so attractive in fantasy leagues. He already has a win and four runner-up finishes in 53 career starts.

39. Sergio Garcia

6-Month SG Rank:

17
2-Year SG Rank: 25

Notes: Garcia was another European that focused more on the PGA TOUR last season, as a product of COVID-19. The result was him making 24 PGA TOUR starts, three more than his previous high. Garcia turned 11 of those into top-25 finishes, landing at 14th in the FedExCup race. He’s getting up there in age (41) but still keeping up with the young guns (3rd in strokes gained off-the-tee last season; 13th in tee-to-green). You could argue that he deserves a higher ranking than this, but I am also worried that more of his attention goes back to international events in 2022.

38. Billy Horschel

6-Month SG Rank:

49
2-Year SG Rank: 39

Notes: Looking at his entire career, Horschel has now earned paydays in 204 of his 279 PGA TOUR starts. Even better, 18 of those cuts made have gone on to be podium finishes (about 9%). Hard to argue with that consistency plus upside combination. At 35-years old, he is still in his prime earning years.

37. Aaron Wise

6-Month SG Rank:

33
2-Year SG Rank: 77

Notes: The young Oregon Duck product faded a bit after winning 2018 Rookie of the Year honors. That potential showed back up this fall when ended the year with seven straight finishes of T26 or better. I like the idea of riding that momentum into the new year and drafting based more on his recent performance than what he did in 2019 or 2020.

36. Russell Henley

6-Month SG Rank:

38
2-Year SG Rank: 36

Notes: Henley has had a very boom-or-bust relationship with his putter over the course of his career. He goes months looking lost with the flat stick but other times he can’t miss for weeks at a time. More recently, though, it’s his iron play that has drawn all of the attention. Henley has 13 measured events where he’s gained 5.8 or more strokes on approach for the week. Only three of those happened before the start of the 2020 calendar year. On the flip side, 20 of his top 21 off-the-tee performances came before 2020. If you value approach over driving, then Henley is your guy.

35. Maverick McNealy

6-Month SG Rank:

35
2-Year SG Rank: 70

Notes: The California kid was supposed to be a superstar right out of Stanford but it’s taken a few years for him to get his footing. There is certainly a lot of positive momentum heading into 2022. McNealy has averaged 2.7 strokes gained tee-to-green per event over his last 10 measured starts. That is nearly three strokes better (per tournament) compared to his career baseline. He’s always been one of the best putters on TOUR but if he can also hang from tee-to-green then he’ll be a force to reckon with. He has Sam Burns upside if he continues to improve from tee-to-green.

34. Cameron Tringale

6-Month SG Rank:

39
2-Year SG Rank: 38

Notes: Tringale picked up some distance a few years ago but that hasn’t been the direct link to his improved performance. Tringale actually lost strokes off-the-tee in 52% of his measured rounds last season. Instead, it was his putter that posted positive strokes gained in 65% of rounds which was ninth-best on TOUR last season. The 34-year-old has top 10s in 28 of his 316 career starts but is still hunting for his first win. It wouldn’t be surprising if that trophy finally landed in his hands by the end of 2022.

33. Corey Conners

6-Month SG Rank:

36
2-Year SG Rank: 28

Notes: If you look at strokes gained ball-striking (off-the-tee plus approach), Conners gained in that regard in 76% of his measured rounds last season. That was the sixth-best on TOUR, right up there with superstars like Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, and Jon Rahm. The problem is that Conners’ short game does not stack up favorably. Even without the best short game, he’s been able to play his way to East Lake in two of the last three seasons.

32. Adam Scott

6-Month SG Rank:

28
2-Year SG Rank: 31

Notes: It was a strange year for the Aussie as he finished the season ranked 18th in strokes gained putting but just 79th from tee-to-green. It was the driver that gave him fits as he hit fewer fairways than the field in 17 of his last 22 events played. He gained strokes off-the-tee in just 48% of his measured rounds last season. Are we starting to see a decline at 41-years old? Or is this just a minor obstacle that he can fix over the holidays?

31. Talor Gooch

6-Month SG Rank:

20
2-Year SG Rank: 40

Notes: Gooch fought through injuries early in his career but looked fully fit in 2021 and it resulted in him finding his first PGA TOUR title. That win came in the fall-ending RSM Classic, so he’ll have plenty of confidence when play resumes after the holidays. It could be a huge year for Gooch is he stays healthy and can maintain his level of play we saw this fall.

30. Jason Kokrak

6-Month SG Rank:

30
2-Year SG Rank: 35

Notes: Kokrak went from one of the top underperformers without a PGA TOUR title to winning three events and it happened very fast. He’s always had the ball-striking chops to contend out on TOUR but he upped his putting game last season (ranked 6th in SG:Putting) and that made all the difference. It’s very possible his putter regresses in 2022 but even with a limp putter he can hang around as a top-50 fantasy option.

29. Joaquin Niemann

6-Month SG Rank:

53
2-Year SG Rank: 37

Notes: The youngster didn’t make a huge leap in 2021 but he did rack up three runner-up finishes. If one or two of those would have gone for wins then his season grade might be dramatically higher. Funny how that works. It’s important to remember he’s still just 23-years old and still has plenty of room for improvement.

28. Tommy Fleetwood

6-Month SG Rank:

25
2-Year SG Rank: 22

Notes: Fleetwood has struggled by his lofty standards over the last few years. The driver is where it all starts. Fleetwood is hitting roughly two fewer fairways per round compared to the field, over his last 20 events. That is a huge dropoff when you compare it to his career baseline which is closer to +1 fairway gained per round. Until he figures the driver out again, he will be a boom-or-bust fantasy option.

27. Louis Oosthuizen

6-Month SG Rank:

11
2-Year SG Rank: 14

Notes: The South African was piecing together the run of his life last summer with podiums in four of six starts at one point. Three of those came in major championships, as well. Then, the dreaded back/neck issues popped up and zapped all his momentum ahead of the FedExCup Playoffs. He remains a WD threat anytime he tees it up which can sometimes open up value as other gamers don’t want to deal with that. At the same time, there is a reason they don’t want to deal with it.

26. Tyrrell Hatton

6-Month SG Rank:

31
2-Year SG Rank: 9

Notes: The Englishman remains one of the best on TOUR with an iron in hand. Hatton gained strokes on approach in 68% of his measured rounds last season (10th best on TOUR). The 30-year-old has never cracked the 20-start marker on the PGA TOUR which limits his expected upside.