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For many, this week marks the unofficial start to the golf season with golf’s first major. Thursday the golfers will tee off from Augusta Country Club for the 2022 Masters. During this year’s build-up, all eyes have been on Tiger Woods. Rightfully so, Tiger doesn’t just move the needle, he is the needle. It would be a miraculous comeback story should not only Tiger compete but compete at a high level.
New World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler was able to breathe a little easier with Tiger commanding all the attention. Scheffler is entering this week with three wins on the season and lofty expectations to pick up his first major win. For months, Jon Rahm had been the highest-priced player on the board. That honor now belongs to Scheffler. He is currently priced at $11,000, $300 more expensive than Rahm, and $600 more than Dustin Johnson.
Here is a breakdown of the guys I am targeting and fading on DraftKings this week:
Justin Thomas ($10,300): Thomas will be one of the highest-owned golfers this week and rightfully so. When looking at my model he is ranked the highest followed by Sam Burns and Rahm. I have heavily targeted golfers who are ranked 29th or better in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. 11 of the last 12 winners were ranked 29th or better in SG: T2G. He’s ranked third, SG: T2G. +1.5
Thomas has a rich history of success here with a top-25 finish in his last five starts, with a four-place finish two Masters ago. He’s a great ball striker and has the driving distance to compete with the great distance of Augusta. Thomas has also been gaining plenty of strokes on approach which highly correlates to success in winning here, much like in other events.
The knock-on Thomas has been his sub-par putting. While it’s always an added benefit to be a good putter on tour, at Augusta, it hasn’t been much of a correlation to winning. 13 of the last 14 winners have ranked 48th or worse in SG: Putting. The important thing here is to avoid three-putts. Thomas is 19th in the field in three-putt avoidance.
He’s flirted with winning often this season. In 2022 alone, he has four top-10 starts in just six events, finding himself in the DraftKings optimal lineup many times. I am backing Thomas with confidence this week.
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Optimal Lineup (via NBC Sports EDGE+ Tools):
Xander Schauffele ($9,600)
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,900)
Talor Gooch ($8,700)
Abraham Ancer ($7,900)
Russell Henley ($7,800)
Luke List ($7,000)
Sam Burns ($8,600): It’s presumptuous of me to back a first-time Masters starter, but I like Burns a lot this week. Coming off a title defense at Valspar, Burns has been brilliant this year and much of last season as well. In his last 36 measured rounds, he’s gained +1.1 strokes from T2G per round. In the model I ran, Burns is ranked second. He would likely be first had he not lost strokes off-the-tee at Genesis, Phoenix Open, and Sentry. While it’s important to not lose strokes off the tee, the holes are not overly penal if you aren’t very accurate off the tee. Augusta features very hittable fairways. Burns isn’t necessarily wayward off the tee, but he does have his moments where he loses confidence in his driver.
In the $8,000 range, you will have to take chances on guys who might have leverage. Burns is my top option. Other guys who interest me in the $8,000 range if you’re wary of first-time starter Burns are Shane Lowry, Russel Henley, and Joaquin Niemann.
Tread Lightly:
Tiger Woods ($8,500): Before I tell you why to tread lightly on Tiger, just know that I may be the biggest Tiger fan on the face of the earth. I have a painting of Tiger hanging up in my house and I likely wouldn’t be writing this article had it not been for him. I want nothing more than for him to excel and win this year. I just take issue with him being priced at $8,500.
Tiger will likely command a lot of ownership this week. He already is the most bet golfer. That’s fine, but I wouldn’t have priced Tiger a penny over $7,200. It would’ve been disrespectful to the man who holds many Masters records, but it would make the most sense. He hasn’t played a competitive round of golf since the 2020 Masters. He was also told that he might not ever play golf again after nearly losing his leg in the car accident which sidelined him.
Tiger could very well make the cut and head into the weekend and begin to feel the fatigue. There’s no telling how his body will respond. Imagine if he withdraws halfway through his Thursday round or at any point. You are backing chalk and I don’t advise it. Boy, I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not rostering him.
Bryson DeChambeau ($9,100): The thought of rostering DeChambeau turns my stomach into knots. He’s a few weeks removed from an extended break due to injury. When he came back, he looked rusty. He was spraying his ball all over the place. Even in four starts here he doesn’t have a finish better than T29. At Valero, he lost -6.2 strokes tee-to-green. His game needs major improvement before I back him, especially in a major. I think he had a top-30 ceiling even when healthy and playing at the top of his game.
Sleepers:
Tom Hoge ($6,700): Here I go again backing first-time starters at Augusta. One will surely burn me. However, if you want to take down the Millionaire Maker and not 150 max rosters, you must take chances on a few guys. You better believe the optimal lineup with having a guy or two who you’d least expect. For me this week, it’s Hoge. If you’ve read any of my columns this season, you know I’ve been Team Hoge even before his first tour win. He’s a baller on the course.
He’s ranked 27th on my model. He drops down a bit because he isn’t long off the tee averaging just 294 yards per drive. He’s not a lights-out putter either. He doesn’t need to be. He’s a 64% driving accuracy guy who is lethal with an iron in his hands. Heading into August he is eighth in SG: T2G and eighth in SG: Ball Striking. I like Hoge to shock a lot of people this week.
Sepp Straka ($6,600): I’m not entirely sure Straka is a sleeper at this point. He’s one of the more talked about $6,000 guys this year. He deserves every bit of accolades that have been sent his way. He’s a great ball striker and can get very hot with his irons when dialed in. I used two courses in my course comparison models. Straka had a 15th at Genesis and a 33rd at Mayakoba. He won Honda after putting on a driving and ball-striking clinic. Then he quietly had a top-10 finish at the Masters. I think both Straka and Hoge find themselves in the top-40.
