To peak, or not to peak? That is the question. Many golfers have thrown out that idea over the years, letting the media know they are trying to peak four times a year, as the importance of winning a major championship is so crucial to a golfer’s legacy.
Whether peak performance is truly something you can time or just something that sounds nice in a presser, is another story.
If golfers really are capable of peaking on demand then we should see them on the list of top performers in major championships. Let’s start our FanDuel Fit search with this query and then look at Southern Hills specifically to see who fits. For that, we will look at historical performance on courses with penal rough.
Delivering on the Biggest Stage
Some stars go their whole career without winning a major while others rise to the occasion and consistently put themselves in the mix whenever a major rolls around.
Whether it is mental or course-setup suitability, or something else entirely, we should take a peek to see who is shining when the brightest lights hit them.
Here are the top performers in major championships, over the last two years:
Collin Morikawa
Scottie Scheffler
Jon Rahm
Louis Oosthuizen
Will Zalatoris
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Dustin Johnson
Tony Finau
Brooks Koepka
Patrick Reed
Rory McIlroy
Bryson DeChambeau
Corey Conners
Viktor Hovland
Some notable names missing include JT, Spieth, and Cam Smith and they happened to be #16, 17, and 18 on this list.
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Avoid the Thick Stuff
Southern Hills has seen a major renovation since we were here for the 2007 PGA Championship but the bones of the course remain the same.
The bermuda rough proved to be a very tough test the last time around.
During the 2007 edition the field averaged just 33% GIR when missing the fairway (76% when approaching from the fairway). That is extremely low, and a huge penalty compared to attacking from the fairway, showing the importance of finding the short grass this week.
Here are the top performers on other courses with a large penalty for missing the fairway, over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas
Scottie Scheffler
Will Zalatoris
Matt Fitzpatrick
Brooks Koepka
Louis Oosthuizen
Patrick Cantlay
Dustin Johnson
Daniel Berger
Rory McIlroy
Jason Kokrak
We can also look at a golfer’s performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Brooks Koepka
Jason Day
Jason Kokrak
Lee Westwood
Will Zalatoris
Brian Harman
Branden Grace
Louis Oosthuizen
Patrick Reed
Collin Morikawa
Mackenzie Hughes
Bubba Watson
Zach Johnson
Bryson DeChambeau
Matt Fitzpatrick
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, and Jason Kokrak.
Notice the clear crossover between this list and the performance in majors list? These big events do a good job of setting up the courses to reward good drivers.
FanDuel Focus
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800): He was dealing with injury earlier this year but has somewhat calmed those concerns with a top 15 at the Masters and a T3 finish last week at the Byron Nelson. HE arrives with a 9-for-9 record at the PGA Championship with two of those doubling as top 5s.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,300): He’s having the best PGA TOUR campaign of his career, arriving with five top 10s in 11 events played. If you’re searching for an all-around talent then look no further as he ranks top 25 in all four sub-categories of strokes gained this season. He’s yet to truly blossom in majors (one top 10 in 27 tries) but his current form suggests that should change by week’s end.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis.
