FedEx St. Jude Classic
TPC Southwind
Memphis, Tenn.
TPC Southwind
Yards: 7,239 as per the scorecard
Par: 70 (35-35)
Greens: Bermudagrass; 5,240 square feet on average
Stimpmeter: 11.5-12'
Rough: Bermudagrass at 2.5”
Bunkers: 94
Water Hazards: 10
Course Architects: Ron Prichard (1987); Redesign PGA TOUR Design Services 2004.
Purse: $6 million
Winner’s Share: $1,080,000
FedExCup Points: 500 to the winner
Defending Champion: Ben Crane defeated Troy Merritt by two shots.
Dates: June 11-14
Notes: 156 players; stroke play
History Lessons
Patrick Reed, Jimmy Walker, Bill Haas, Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, James Hahn, Padraig Harrington, Alex Cejka (PRO), Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Matt Every, J.B. Holmes, Jim Furyk, Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk, Steven Bowditch and David Lingmerth are the first 22 winners of calendar 2015. Hahn (No. 297), Harrington (No. 297), Cejka (No. 285), Every (No. 96) and Bowditch (No. 137) and Lingmerth (No. 212) are the only players outside the top 70 OWGR to win this year.
The last eight out of 10 tournaments have had a player from the top 25 OWGR win. The last two have not. #Streakin’
After 28 wins in 45 events last season the USA has won with Snedeker, Koepka, Haas, Walker TWICE, Reed, Hahn and Johnson, Spieth TWICE, Every, Holmes, Furyk, Fowler and Kirk in 2015. The USA already picked up wins in 2014 portion from Charley Hoffman, Bubba Watson, Ryan Moore, Robert Streb and Ben Martin. The USA has won 20 of the first 30 events. Cejka, Harrington, Jason Day, Rose, McIlroy, Bowditch and Lingmerth make up the rest of foreign legion who have won in calendar 2015. They join Sang-moon Bae (Korea) and Nick Taylor (Canada) from the 2014 as the international winners.
After 13 first-time winners in 2013 there were only 10 last year. Through 30 events in 2015, Hahn, Koepka, Martin, Streb, Taylor, Cejka and Lingmerth have broken their maidens.
Blowin’ in the Wind
This will be the 58th edition of the FESJC and TPC Southwind has been the host since 1989. In 2004 the course was redesigned with Bentgrass being removed for Champion Bermudagrass so any history prior to 2005 will be ignored. It’s always hot in Memphis and the Bermuda can handle the heat and humidity throughout the spring and summer. Similar to the Zurich in New Orleans, players will have to deal with plenty of heat, humidity but only two par fives on this par 70 layout. Before 2005 TPC Southwind played to par 71. After three tournaments in a row of Bentgrass, the grain of Bermuda returns. No wonder why scores rarely get low here!
Only one tournament score since 2005 has been lower than 14-under-par so TPC Southwind hasn’t been easy by any metric. For the second week in a row the greens will rate on the smaller-than-average size and difficult to hit. Unlike last week, the fairways won’t have the generous landing areas so fairways hit should result in better chances of GIR being hit. Like last week, the veteran who has played this layout a few times will know where NOT to miss it as doglegs, 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards come into play. Ben Crane made five bogeys on his way to the winner’s circle last year and THREE of those came on Sunday. He closed with a birdie-free 73 but his lead of three entering the day was safe.
As is usually the case on a par-70 par four scoring will be just as important as bogey avoidance. Parring this place to death won’t hurt but any scores higher than even par will be hard to recover from as the week continues. Weather, as always, this time of year will be a concern but so will course management and execution. As we can see by the recent winners after the redesign, experience playing target golf is the greatest asset with only DJ and English being the exception to these rules.
Winning Scores
2014: Ben Crane 270
2013: Harris English 268
2012: Dustin Johnson 271
2011: Harrison Frazar 267*
2010: Lee Westwood 270*
2009: Brian Gay 261
2008: Justin Leonard 276*
2007: Woody Austin 267
2006: Jeff Maggert 271
2005: Justin Leonard 266
* Playoff winner
Italics: not in field this week
Facts and Figures
2005: 9th-most difficult in relation to par
2006: 2nd
2007: 6th
2008: 4th
2009: 20th
2010: 11th
2011: 9th
2012: 10th
2013: 14th
2014: 12th overall, HARDEST non-major par 70.
In the last five years, three winners have won on their maiden voyage. Westwood (2010), Johnson (2012) and English (2013) are three of the seven players in 57 editions to do this.
Harrison Frazar and Harris English are the only players in the last 20 years to break their TOUR maiden on this track. Is there anyone with “Harris” in their name this week who hasn’t won?
No player has defended their title since the renovation. Only Justin Leonard has won multiple times. David Toms won back-to-back in 2003-2004 to become only the third player in history to defend.
Woody Austin and Jeff Maggert were the 40-somethings that have won here after the renovation. Austin was 43 and Maggert 42 reinforcing that experience doesn’t hurt.
English, Johnson and Notah Begay III (2000) are the only players to win this event in their 20s in recent times.
Tournament and Course Records
Austin set the redesign low score with 62 in 2007.
Brian Gay fired 261 in 2009. The next closest is 266. #Route
Bizarre Stat(s)of the Week:
The tournament began in 1958. Of the 57 previous winners only four have not been from the USA.
This Will Win You a Bar Bet
Nobody has won on TOUR the week before the U.S. Open and has gone on to win the second major of the year.
There are nine players that have won the week before a major. The last two to do so were Phil Mickelson (Scottish Open) before winning the 2013 Open at Muirfield and Rory McIlroy last year (WGC-BI) before the winning the PGA at Valhalla. Before that it was Tiger Woods in 2007 (WGC-BI/PGA).
The Chalk
In order, these are the players that I believe project the best this week (Yahoo! group in parentheses).
Dustin Johnson (B): After being in contention last week with about 100 double bogeys, it won’t surprise if EITHER condition is in play again this week with DJ. In 12 rounds at TPC Southwind he’s been over par exactly once but it was 75 last year on Saturday. He rallied with 67 on Sunday to hit the top 25 (T24). The 2012 champ backed up his inaugural appearance victory with T10 in 2013 and this will be his fourth appearance in a row. He proved his worth on small greens time and time again and his track record in Memphis is the proof.
Billy Horschel (B): He’s going to be the easiest or the most frustrating pick this week for gamers as current form is matching up with course form. He dusted off the rust from his T13 at THE PLAYERS last week at Memorial by putting all four rounds under par to finish T11. He made 22 birdies off the layoff and only a bogey at the last kept him out of the top 10. This will be his fifth start in a row in Memphis and he’s racked up T10 and T6 in his last two. With as many greens as he tends to hit, like Johnson, it will be the putter that determines just how many under he’s going to post.
Webb Simpson (A): He sits third on TOUR in the all-around ranking, fourth in strokes gained: tee to green and is 10th in ball-striking. Making birdies have never been a problem with Simpson but putting with his short putter has been. Gamers will remind me that this is his first action since a disappointing 72 at his home course saw him get left in the wake by McIlroy at Quail Hollow. I’ll point out the 2012 U.S. Open champ played here last year before Pinehurst and played the final three rounds at nine-under.
Ryan Palmer (A): In the two previous trips to Memphis before last year’s opening round 67, Palmer had hit the top 10 with opening rounds OVER par. In 2012 he opened four-over 74 and closed 66-67-66 for T3. In 2013 it was 72 before closing 67-65-67 for solo fourth. Last year his 72-72 Friday-Saturday knocked him out of contention but he still closed with 68 and T32. He’s posted three top 10s in seven trips and three MCs but gamers understand this fluidity with Palmer. After MC at THE PLAYERS and his home course, Colonial, he went across town to TPC Four Seasons and racked up another top 10 (T10), his fourth of the season, his last time out. He’s fifth in scoring average and ninth in SGT.
Phil Mickelson (B): While I can’t figure out why he keeps playing Memorial , I do know why he plays TPC Southwind: it fits his eye. In his last eight rounds, five of them are 67 or lower and both years he’s used this as his U.S. Open tune-up instead of practicing. Half of the game with Phil is 90% mental. His best golf this year has come on tracks where he’s been comfortable (Augusta, Quail) and those are his best two results. Mickelson is the WORST example for new gamers who haven’t been around the block as he is one of the VERY few that I’ll try and “time”. His track record is what it is so I pick and choose my battles and he will be a factor this week.
Brooks Koepka (A): I’m not going to let one 78 on Sunday dissuade me from the hyper-talented Koepka. He’s seventh in the all-around and 12th in scoring and has no problems making low numbers. His bookend 67s last year in his first trip so that he’s a quick study of new tracks and he’ll look to build on his T19 finish.
George McNeill (B): Another week, another appearance in Range Rover as the veteran has plugged 14 weekends from 15 tries in 2015. His worst finish in his last five is T28 and that is his ONLY result outside of the top 17. Of those 20 rounds 18 are par or better so it is hardly a surprise that he’s been a mainstay in weekly games over this run. His recent form has made previous course form shrink on the level of importance each week but he’s posted seven of his last 14 at Memphis in the 70s. Nothing has resulted in anything better than T28 but his form is the angle here as he was T5 at Colonial and T13 last week at Memorial.
Jerry Kelly (C): His closing round 70 at ATTBNC is his only over-par round in his last six rounds (par 69 the final three rounds) so I’ll back the veteran with a hot hand. His T30 at TPC Four Seasons was his only finish outside the T22 in his last four and crusty veterans have had success here in Memphis. He’s 14th in scoring average because he’s in the top 50 of STTG and SGP. It doesn’t hurt that he leads the TOUR in par three scoring average and is in the top 25 in the par four category.
Harris English (A): The 2013 champ didn’t make the weekend last year as his 68 wasn’t enough to cover his opening 73. That makes five of six rounds in the 60s at Memphis for English so I’m expecting big things again this week. He’s been close to “popping” as he posted his best stroke play finish of the spring last week at Memorial. He was showing signs at ATTBNC before a final round 73 knocked him to T60. Last week he opened with 67-71 before stalling out on the weekend. I think he falls through the cracks this week but his splits are just as solid as his small sample course form.
Graeme McDowell (B): REMEMBER HIM??? With a thin field this week it allows me to pound some square pegs into round holes. I won’t forget that he shot 63 in his first tournament here on Sunday to finish T7 100 years ago and found T24 here last year when he was hardly in any form to brag on. He showed flashes of a return to his old form at Harbour Town, another tough place to hit fairways and GIR, where he had his best finish of T26. Hell, I should put him in the FADE column but each week I’ve learned there that form is temporary and class is permanent. This is usually the part of the year where he turns it on so I’ll take a chance to catch him on the UP before Chambers Bay next week.
Brian Harman (B): With top 10s in two of his last four on TOUR he looks like FANTASY GOLD this week in a field of this ilk. He was four back on Sunday here last year before a closing 72 knocked him to T6. He’s shown his worth on TPC courses with his win at TPC Deere Valley last year and T8 at THE PLAYERS this year.
Jamie Donaldson (C): He’s never seen the course here but that’s the case with most of the places he’s faced on TOUR outside of the WGCs and majors over the last few years. I’ll point out that he closed with 67 at THE PLAYERS for T8 and then went to another ball-strikers paradise, the BMW at Wentworth and followed that up with T18. He should be rested and ready for a very solid week and there won’t be anyone in this field that will bother the Ryder Cupper.
Russell Knox (C): He quietly closed with 68 last week at Memorial (after opening with 66) to finish T18 for his sixth pay check in a row. He was T18 at Harbour Town and T17 at THE PLAYERS so this track, you would think, sets up perfectly for his game. It doesn’t MC-74th-MC are his last three results but I’m interested in a guy who’s hot and hits tons of fairways and greens. He qualifies easily this week!
Form Plays/Long Shots/General Debauchery
Hot plays, trendy fliers, tough fits, you name it, I got it.
Jason Bohn: His run of back-to-back top 10s ended last week with T52 at Memorial. I still think he’s good value this week as he has posted six of his last eight at par or better with T18 in 2013 and T24 last year. His numbers from tee-to-green are beyond excellent and he fits nicely into the “crusty veteran” category who have excelled here in the past.
Scott Pinckney: Along with Daniel Summerhays, Tony Finau, Zac Blair they make up the Utah Mafia. They were all in the top 16 last week minus Summerhays. This week, Pinckney and Blair tee it up as they try and take the Beehive State to another level. Pinckney has done his best with six weekends in his last eight with four of those T12 or better. He was T2 last time out at ATTBNC. Blair whopped Tiger by 15 shots in their pairing last Saturday at Memorial before dropping 77 on Sunday. He’ll find this week’s track a bit easier on the greens so keep an eye on him.
Shawn Stefani: Nothing in the 60s last week at Memorial should scare the masses off but not me. His ball-striking numbers are too good to dismiss and I won’t have to remind veteran gamers he was the 54-hole leader on his maiden voyage in 2013. Those same gamers will remind me that he closed with 76 in 2013 and 74 last year.
Matt Every: He showed up here last year on the back of WD-MC-MC-MC and racked out T3. This year he rolls in T18-T52-T42-MC.
Jhonattan Vegas: He’s played the weekend in seven of his last eight and has a pair of T32s in three tries. I mean that’s what we’re left with this week.
Will Wilcox: He’s played only five events in 2015. He’s made four cuts. He’s only posted four rounds over par. His worst finish is T33. He was T22 at ATTBNC after 67 x three to finish the week his last time out. Shhhhhhhh.
Chesson Hadley: He was T13 last year in his maiden voyage and I’m not leaving out a guy who’s made the cut in 10 of his last 11 dating back to early March.
Blayne Barber: He’ll be buoyed by playing himself into the U.S. Open on top of becoming a proud parent recently. I’m playing the nappy factor here as this will be his first TOUR start since Quail Hollow.
David Hearn: Another U.S. Open Monday qualifier, the Canadian was trending nicely at TPC Southwind T47-T42-T18 before MC last year. He did open with 68 in that MC so I’m not letting one bad round here sway me. His consistently inconsistent form keeps gamers on his toes so I’ll ride the positive momentum from qualifying this week.
Bryson DeChambeau: The NCAA stroke play champion from two weeks ago backed up that effort with a spot in the U.S. Open via sectional qualifying on Monday. My theory never changes: hot golf is hot golf regardless of where it’s being played. He’s worth a flier on that form this week.
Luke Donald: His best two finishes of the year are in his winter backyard in Jupiter as he was T7 at Honda and sectional medalist Monday at the Bear’s Club across the street. He flashed signs of life with T15 at RBC Heritage, T38 at Wentworth (with only ONE bad round, 77) and was T18 at the Irish Open due to a final round 76. It’s his first time at TPC Southwind or he would be farther up the list.
Jonathan Randolph: He’s from Mississippi but won’t have the pressure on him like he did at SFC last November. Heat and humidity won’t bother him and neither will his recent results. He put four rounds under par at Quail Hollow for T20 and was 11-under heading into Sunday at ATTBNC before imploding with 74 to finish T34. That’s eight of his last nine rounds under par if you’re scoring at home. I am.
Course Horses
Ben Crane: Last year’s champ made it six straight appearances on the weekend since the redesign and four of those are T18 or better. Only six of those rounds are over par. His best full-field stroke play finish this season is T37 twice in 13 events.
Camilo Villegas: His last four here are T8-T3-MC-T10-T11. He’s coming off MC in five of his last six. He made his eighth cut in a row at Memorial last week even though he MC five straight entering the week. #allornothing
Robert Allenby: His putting woes are well documented but his last eight finishes here are just as spectacular as his after-hours story in Maui. He’s played every year since 2007 and has rattled off four top 10s plus a T12 and T13 with a MC and a WD. His recent form makes Villegas look like Sam Snead so keep that in mind as he has nothing better than T51 in 2015.
Charles Howell III: With nothing better than T31 and three MCs in his last six on TOUR, Howell falls here. His best was four years ago with T3 and that’s one of five in a row but the only one inside T27.
Carl Pettersson: Only one top 30 in 15 events in 2015 gets you a spot on this list only. He’s played twice in the last four years and has put ALL EIGHT ROUNDS UNDER PAR and finished T8 in 2011 and T3 last year. We have both ends of the spectrum covered here.
Padraig Harrington: He’s done nothing since winning the Honda in a playoff but his record here is tight. He’s played five years in a row on the weekend and has T13 in 2012 and T10 in 2013 to show for it. I wonder how many swing changes he’s put in since that T10...
Glen Day: This will be his 19th event here. He was T10 two years ago in his last start, his fifth consecutive time he’s played the weekend over eight years. He’s going to be my OAD this week since nothing else I do works.
Boo Weekley: He should probably be rated higher than this but the course horses are not in any order. He’s played seven of nine weekends including the last five but none of those went for better than T27. He was T4 in 2008.
Retief Goosen: He’s five from six and everything is T32 or better stretching back to 2007. He was eight-under and T2 last year before blowing up on the weekend. He also qualified for the U.S. Open Monday.
Off the Radar
Jeff Overton: He plays decently in bunches and usually on courses where par is a decent score. He was in the thick of it last week before 74 on Sunday knocked him back at Memorial. He’s made all seven weekends in seven tries at TPC Southwind and three in a row on TOUR.
Troy Merritt: His two top 10s this year on a difficult tracks at Innisbrook and Harbour Town. He was second here last year but has nothing better than T52 in his last four on TOUR and that includes two MCs.
Scott Stallings: He’s a golf legend in Tennessee as he played at Tennessee Tech and was T2 here in 2013. He has more MC than weekends in his last 10 on TOUR.
Jon Curran: He’s posted seven of his last eight rounds on TOUR under par and was T6 last time out at ATTBNC.
Patrick Rodgers: STM sewn up. Pressure completely gone. Free as a bird and this is NOT Muirfield Village on the greens.
Bryce Molder: The Arkansas native has shown well just across the river with T2 in 2009 and T24 in 2012. Splash in six of his last seven since Valero with half going for T25 or better and he’s a decent filler this week.
Colt Knost: I’ll give him a pass at Memorial where missing the greens are way more penal that TPC Southwind, especially the bunkers. He plays from the fairway and can putt and has T10-T10-MC in his last three. That’s some fine barrel scrapin’ there.
Fades
Since Schwartzel WD Tuesday morning, we’ll close this part of the column until next week at Chambers Bay.
Rookie/Up-and-Comer of the Week Last Week
Once called the “Jordan Spieth” of the week, I had to retire that name after his last two seasons on TOUR. Now, we’ll keep a broad view of newer names/faces that gamers should pay attention to as the season moves on. Some former examples in this column include Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed and Chesson Hadley.
Frys.com: Zac Blair, T12; Tony Finau, T12;
Shriners: Finau, T7
McGladrey: Robert Streb, WIN
CIMB: Cameron Smith, T5
SFC: Nick Taylor, WIN; Peter Uihlein, T4; Justin Thomas, T4; Blayne Barber, T9; Carlos Sainz, Jr., T9; Cory Whitsett, T14.
OHL:T7 Finau, T9 Barber, T9 Carlos Ortiz, T9 Oscar Fraustro,
HTOC: Taylor played his sixth event as a pro. He’s won 1/6 of the events he’s entered. That’s worth keeping an eye on for the foreseeable future.
Sony: Blair and Thomas finished T6 in their Sony debuts.
Humana: SJ Park (T2) is new to the TOUR but is hardly a rookie; Oh, look: Thomas in the top 10 again (T7).
WMPO: Koepka won so he graduates from this column like Reed, Spieth and Matsuyama before him. Justin Thomas is now the current mayor. Daniel Berger was T10, Thomas T17 and Finau returned with another top 25.
Farmers: Blair and Ortiz were T11 and Finau and Berger were T24. Not bad on a big, bad course!
Pebble Beach: Another top 10 for Berger and Curran as they had low rookie honors at T10. Will Wilcox was T18.
Northern Trust: Barber checked in at T12 and all that took was firing a tournament-low 65 on Sunday. No shame in Ortiz’s final round 75 from the final group as he played two very tough SoCal courses, Torrey South and Riviera T11 and T20. Noted.
Honda: Berger lost in a playoff. He’s played 10 TOUR events.
PRO: Young Argentine Emiliano Grillo missed a three-footer for his first win on TOUR. Curran hit another top 10, his third this season. Grillo has three TOUR starts; Curran has 17.
Valspar: There’s that pesky Thomas back in the top 10 AGAIN!
API: Berger just missed out on another top 10 with T13 and Blair and Ortiz racked up another top 25 each on T21.
VTO: Welcome Scott Pinckney to the proceedings as his T8 was quite stout. Ortiz hit the top 20 AGAIN with T15.
SHO: Berger, T25. He just keeps on keepin’ on.
Masters: Now you see why Spieth (WINNER) and Matsuyama (5th) were retired from the column? Koepka has already won as well. So has Henley. And Reed. Nobody this week fits.
RBC Heritage: Thomas, T11.
Zurich: Berger, T6. Thomas T12.
WGC-Match Play: N/A but Tommy Fleetwood is only 24 on the European Tour.
THE PLAYERS: Thomas fell from T5 to T24 closing with 75. #learningexperience
Wells Fargo: Web.com’s Patrick Rodgers inched closer to STM with his T2. He needs just nine FedEx Cup points to gain unlimited exemptions for the rest of the 2015 season.
Colonial: Finau returned to the scene as he backed up a good week at Quail with another at Colonial. T19.
ATT&TBNC: Pinckney, T2, best finish ever on TOUR; Berger and Finau T10.
Memorial: Finau, T8. He won’t be in this column for long, I feel...
Coming Later TUESDAY Afternoon
Playing the Tips will be up and running this and every Tuesday afternoon and will list all of the Rotoworld experts picks in the GolfChannel.com game, the Yahoo! Fantasy Golf game, DFS plus the European Tour! Oh, and my One-and-Done feature. Look for it around 4ET every Tuesday for the rest of the season.
Coming Wednesday
And the analysis doesn’t end here. Rotoworld’s Rob Bolton and I will be co-hosting a one-hour live chat Wednesday at 12 ET. We will be breaking down the field at the FESJC and answering your questions. Simply return to the golf home page to join in on the chatter. Don’t forget to follow Rob (http://twitter.com/RobBoltonGolf) and Glass (http://twitter.com/MikeGlasscott) on Twitter.
