Andrew

Painter

Painter is undeniably one of the game’s best pitching prospects, but he’s a question mark for the present after returning from Tommy John to post a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts in Triple-A last year. So, today was rather encouraging. He averaged 96.8 mph with his fastball, and he threw 14 of his 20 pitches for strikes. A strong spring will likely make him the Phillies’ fifth starter to open the season, which would put him in a battle with Taijuan Walker to keep the spot after Zack Wheeler returns.

Realmuto mentioned that Painer was about 98 or 99 mph in the bullpen and that the ball came out of his hand easy, without any effort. Perhaps more importantly, Realmuto mentions that the version of Painter he saw this week has far better command than he showed last year as he worked back from Tommy John surgery. “I think a lot of guys coming back from that injury don’t have the feel of the baseball to be able to command it like they normally do. Painter is one of those rare instances where he has such quality stuff, but he also commands the baseball really well...last year, he was just leaving some balls in the middle of the plate or getting behind in some counts... When he’s right, he’s kind of like [Zack] Wheeler where his stuff is so elite, but he’s still able to throw the ball on the edges.” Painter has an inside track to win the fifth starter spot in Philadelphia and is a nice target in fantasy drafts.

Wheeler is coming back from thoracic outlet surgery that took place in late September. The Phillies lost Ranger Suárez and haven’t added any veteran starters on major league deals this winter, so barring a late pickup, it looks like there will be two rotation spots initially available for Taijuan Walker, Andrew Painter, Bryse Wilson or anyone else who steps up.

Dombrowski hasn’t offered any additional clarity on Wheeler’s recovery timeline from surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome since his end-of-season media session in late October, when he reiterated the club’s expectation: “The timeline remains six to eight months to be back pitching in a major-league game — so that takes you to the end of May.” The veteran fantasy ace, who turns 36 in late May, is expected to continue ramping up during spring training, but remains highly unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. The central question for fantasy managers is whether his front-of-the-rotation stuff returns to pre-surgery during spring throwing sessions and early-season rehab outings. He’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward pick — volatile because of the procedure but impossible to ignore given his track record. A speculative selection as a top-40 range starting pitcher for fantasy purposes makes sense. With Wheeler projected to miss at least two months — and Ranger Suárez likely leaving in free agency — there’s also a very real pathway for top prospect Andrew Painter to break camp in Philadelphia’s rotation.

Painter is the major headliner here for fantasy purposes as he should enter spring training with a legitimate chance to make Philadelphia’s rotation. The 22-year-old is no longer the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball after a disappointing campaign last year at the Triple-A level, but he still has the raw stuff required to evolve into a top-of-the-rotation arm. There’s clearly some prospect fatigue going on with Painter which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate in dynasty formats.

He allowed nine hits, one of them an Isan Díaz homer, while striking out seven and walking three. The outing leaves Painter with a 7.77 ERA and a 27/16 K/BB in 24 1/3 innings over five starts in August. It just doesn’t seem like he’s going to help this year.

Painter authored one of his strongest performances of the season on Friday night, managing to avoid serious damage despite dealing with eight baserunners over five frames. He finished with five strikeouts and threw 57 of 90 pitches for strikes. There’s a path for the 22-year-old top pitching prospect to make his big-league debut once rosters expand in early September, but it’ll likely be in a long relief role given the crowded state of Philadelphia’s rotation, which is currently without Zack Wheeler as he recovers from surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder.

There was optimism at the outset of the season that Painter would arrive in the big leagues at some point in second half. That doesn’t appear likely at this juncture — even with Zack Wheeler landing on the injured list with a blood clot in his shoulder — given his ongoing struggles on the doorstep of the majors. The 22-year-old remains one of the premier pitching prospects in the game, but his odds of reaching Philadelphia — and making an impact for fantasy purposes — are more likely in 2026 than at some point in the final six weeks.

Painter also walked four and struck out four, and now has a 4.88 ERA in 72 Triple-A innings. Zack Wheeler is battling some shoulder soreness, but even if he were to need an IL stint, the Phillies may turn to Seth Johnson or Alan Rangel in a spot start situation.

The Phillies were able to acquire Jhoan Duran without giving up Painter, and then Painter celebrated with one of his best starts at Triple-A. The 22-year-old struck out four and walked two while throwing 65 of his 103 pitches for strikes. He’s now sporting a 4.50 ERA at Triple-A, so the Phillies have no need to rush him up for big league innings.