Dylan

Cease

There’s deferred money in the deal that makes it around $26 million per year for luxury tax purposes, but in terms of cash, Cease gets the seventh-largest contract in history for a pitcher, tied with Max Scherzer’s seven-year deal that expired in 2021 and Corbin Burnes’ seven-year deal signed a year ago. Cease replaces Chris Bassitt and is set to join Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, José Berríos and Trey Yesavage in the Jays’ 2026 rotation. He should probably be looked at in the 15-20 range among fantasy SPs.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports the deal is pending a physical, nd will contain deferrals. Cease was viewed as one of the top arms available on the market, and he’ll now join the defending American League champions. The 29-year-old forged a disappointing 4.55 ERA over 168 innings last year with the Padres, but he did strike out 215 batters in that timeframe and the metrics suggest he was better than that inflated mark. He’ll pitch near the top of the Toronto rotation, and assuming good health, he should be a solid fantasy option for the 2026 campaign and beyond.

It comes as a mild surprise that four players — Shota Imanaga, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Woodruff and Trent Grisham — accepted the short-term pact this cycle instead of testing the open market since only 14 of 144 players since 2012 previously accepted qualifying offers. Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suárez and Díaz were no-doubters here while there was some thought that Gallen and King might take the one-year deal to build up their values before hitting free agency next offseason.

Evan after presumably moving on from Ramón Urías, the Astros are already looking at $220 million payroll for 2026, and adding a player like Cease, who figures to come in at around $30 million per year, would put them in luxury tax territory. It’ll be interesting to see if they’re really willing to go that high, especially since they’d seem to need more than one pitcher, what with Cease essentially replacing Framber Valdez.

Passan adds that Kyle Schwarber, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, Edwin Díaz, Zac Gallen, Shota Imanaga, Michael King, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres and Brandon Woodruff are the other dozen impending free agent to receive the tag prior to Thursday evening’s deadline. They have until Tuesday, November 18 to decide whether to accept the one-year deal or decline and become free agents. Only 14 of 144 players to receive a qualifying offer since 2012 have actually accepted it. It’s worth noting that players who were on multiple teams — Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez — along with players who have previously received a qualifying offer — Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman — were ineligible to receive one this offseason.

Despite a down season with the Padres in which he registered an uninspiring 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 168 innings, Cease remains one of the top overall starting pitching options that will be available on the market this winter and he’s still expected to land a highly lucrative multi-year deal. The Cubs are one of what will likely be many suitors.

Cease is coming off a season where he went 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA in 168 innings for the Padres, his lowest innings total since 2021. He also posted an elevated 1.33 WHIP and saw hitters post improved slugging numbers against both his four-seam fastball and slider. Still, he struck out 215 batters and, according to Feinsand, many MLB executives believe he pitched better than the surface-level stats: “He’s definitely a frontline starter; I thought he was much better than his line this year,” said one NL executive. “His walks and extra-base hits were up, so I would want to look into it a little more...With how teams are always on the hunt for top starting pitching, his age, health, etc., I see him getting a pretty big deal.”

Cease drew the starting assignment at Wrigley Field against his former organization and was staked to a one-run advantage before taking the mound. The 29-year-old righty was in total control early on, striking out five and limiting Chicago to just four baserunners before being lifted in the fourth inning after just 69 pitches (46 strikes). The abbreviated outing puts him on track to take the ball early next week in the NLDS if San Diego makes it past the Cubs.

Pivetta has been a bona fide ace for the Padres this season, posting a 2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 190/50 K/BB ratio in 181 2/3 innings. Cease and Darvish have been less consistent than Pivetta, but they both offer ace upside if they are clicking on any given night.

Cease concludes September with a 3.12 ERA and a 32/10 K/BB in 26 innings. That’s a nice improvement over his season line, though the outing today was his only one of the five against a contender. He’ll take an 8-12 record and a 4.55 ERA into the postseason, and he’ll really need to shove in October if he hopes to land close to the kind of contract in free agency that he seemed destined for six months ago.