Mitch

Keller

Keller threw 73 percent first pitch strikes and also registered a 29 percent whiff rate. He went sweeper-heavy in this one, throwing 31 percent sweepers and registering a 40 percent whiff rate on it. Keller’s four-seamer has a bit more vertical movement on it this year, and his velocity increased a bit as the game went on. He’s unlikely to keep pitching as well as he has been, but he seems likely to keep it going next week against the Nationals.

Keller is on the board with his first win in eight starts dating back to August. He allowed six hits and walked four today, but he did a much better job of spreading things around than Orioles starter Kyle Bradish did. As a result, the Pirates won 5-4 despite getting outhit 9-6 and outhomered 1-0. Keller will face the Padres next week.

Keller was outstanding on Saturday, holding the Mets scoreless over six frames. He scattered three hits with no walks on an efficient 77 pitches while striking out three batters. Keller would get saddled with a tough-luck no-decision as the Pirates failed to get him any run support. The 29-year-old right-hander draws another tough matchup against the Orioles in Pittsburgh on Friday.

Although he generated just four whiffs on 33 swings, Keller was able to strike out five today. He ends the spring with a 4.80 ERA and a 20/8 K/BB in 15 innings. He’s slated to face the Mets in the Pirates’ second game of the season on Saturday, but he doesn’t come recommended in mixed leagues.

Keller also walked four and struck out six while throwing just 58 percent of his pitches for strikes, but registering a 39 percent whiff rate. Keller’s best pitch on the day was his sweeper, which he threw for strikes and had a 50 percent whiff rate on, but he really struggled to command his fastballs. His four-seamer was also down over one mph from where we saw it last season. Given Keller’s inconsistencies over the years and the young arms emerging in Pittsburgh, it’s hard to feel comfortable drafting Keller in most fantasy formats.

It was the typical for Keller -- his fastball hit 95, he threw six different pitches, and he allowed four hard-hit balls, one of which was a homer. He’ll remain a streaming consideration in 12- and 14-team leagues in the right matchups in 2026.

Keller got three of the four strikeouts with his sweeper, though he also gave up doubles both times that pitch was put into play. He’s yet to allow a run in 4 1/3 innings this spring and is now up to six strikeouts.

Keller’s velocity was pretty much at his 2025 norms, and he went without allowing a hard-hit ball today. He’s been pretty much written off as a mixed-league starter at this point, and there are some good reasons for that. Still, his ballpark is favorable and he’s due some more offensive support this year; if he could get his strikeout rate back up, he wouldn’t be hopeless.

The 27-year-old Oviedo missed all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and then was delayed to start 2025 with a lat strain. However, he posted a 3.57 ERA in nine starts in 2025 while showing off an upper-90s fastball and improved shapes on his two-seam and four-seam fastball. Pair that with a slider that has been a plus pitch for him, and teams see the makings of a solid back-of-the-rotation starter. Rosenthal reports that the Pirates would much rather trade Mitch Keller and his $54.5 million salary over the next three years, but both right-handers are names to watch this offseason.

Keller’s walk rate had come down of late, but then he set a season high tonight. He ends the season 6-15 with a 4.19 ERA and a 150/51 K/BB in 176 1/3 innings. The win-loss record is hardly all his fault, and from an ERA standpoint, he’s been very consistent the last four years. Still, his stock is down with his strikeout rate dropping to 20 percent, and that his ERAs have been satisfactory is partly a product of his home ballpark suppressing home runs.