“Hey, you never know.”
Cliches are cliches because they are true and just have been spoken, over and over, until folks are sick of them.
Perhaps no phrase more so than “Hey, you never know.”
At least in fantasy football. I can’t tell you how many times I have said that to friends and family members worried about their matchup. Convinced they are absolutely going to win or worse, dead solid sold on the fact that this is it, their season is over. It happens every year, every week, every game.
And then yet, something weird or unexpected happens, stars falter, scrubs shine and whatever you were expecting to happen… didn’t.
You never know.
And in my three-plus decades of doing this, I don’t believe I have ever felt that more than this last Monday night.
Last week’s Monday Night game between the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals wasn’t only the last game of the week but it was the last game of the regular fantasy football season. The vast majority of leagues start their playoffs in Week 15 these days, which means that after the Pats-Cards game, all leagues’ postseason berths would be set and every player would know, officially, whether they had any fake football left to play.
For the last decade or so, a few hours before the Monday night game, I always put out a version of the same tweet. “What do you need tonight?” I ask. “Speak it into existence and let’s make it happen. #MondayNightMiracle”
And I get lots of responses and I love reading them all. And invariably, because this is a game played with an oblong shaped ball made of leather, some of them come true, every single week. This week, with so many in “Win or go home” mode there was an avalanche of responses to that tweet, each more desperate than the last.
Because in addition to it being the last game of the regular season and a national TV game at that, there were a number of fantasy relevant players in the game. A top-10 QB in Kyler Murray, two borderline “RB1’s” in Rhamondre Stevenson and James Conner, a top 10 WR in DeAndre Hopkins, a viable WR2 in Marquise Brown and even a very stream-able tight end in Hunter Henry given the Cardinals struggles this year against tight ends. Plus a viable fantasy defense and kicker for those leagues that play with them in the Patriots D/ST and Nick Folk.
What ended up happening was the greatest “Well, you never know” game in fantasy football history. Sure fire winners turned losers. No chance in hell losers winding up on top. And perhaps no one represents that better than Jordan Eisner and Chris McDonald.
Both of them 28, both of them work in accounting, both of them are longtime fantasy players and both of them have no idea the other exists.
Oh, and both had an unbelievable experience last Monday night.
Currently living in New York City, this is the 20th year that Jordan Eisner has played fantasy football. Yep. As a young boy, Jordan’s father got him into fantasy football and his grandfather – Grandpa Lenny as he is known – co-owned a team with young Jordan when he was just 8 years old. Oh yeah. The Eisners are a fantasy football family through and through.
Which is why The Eisner and Cohen Fantasy Football League is so important to everyone in the family, especially Jordan. Jordan plays in four leagues and is a hardcore player. But what he most wants to win is his 12 team family league, comprised of his Dad, his brother, his brother-in-law, lots of cousins and yes, Grandpa Lenny.
Heading into the Monday night game, the stakes were high. Jordan, his brother Brandon and Grandpa Lenny were all 9-4. At stake? A $300 prize for winning the regular season and perhaps even more important, a first-round bye in the playoffs.
It’s a full PPR league with standard lineups, and in Week 14 Jordan was actually playing his brother Brandon, straight-up. And not only would the game determine first place in the regular season, it had significant meaning to Grandpa Lenny as well. Grandpa Lenny had already clinched his win for the week so all he needed was for Jordan to beat his brother Brandon. And if that happened, Grandpa Lenny would be the second seed and also get a first-round bye.
Meanwhile, 564 miles away in Toledo, Ohio, Chris McDonald was just trying to sneak into the playoffs.
Currently playing in two leagues, Chris grew up a really good athlete. He played both competitive baseball and hockey growing up as a kid. (In fact, both of his brothers play college hockey now). Ultimately, Chris played college baseball on a scholarship and, in fact, spent two seasons as a pitcher in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system. But while he ultimately went towards baseball, hockey is in Chris’ blood. And it’s those years of playing hockey as a youth that forged the bonds of the Restore the Roar Fantasy Football League.
The five year old league is comprised of Chris’ hockey playing buddies from his youth (all Detroit Lions fans, naturally) and is a 12 team, 0.5 PPR league with standard lineups. Having gotten married to Maria, they had moved back to Toledo to be near her family and so the fantasy league is one of the key ways Chris keeps in touch with his friends.
It’s also a hardcore league with a pretty good last-place punishment. Last place has to spend 24 hours straight in a Coney Island Hot Dog restaurant with one hour being taken off for every hot dog you eat. Chris is a former champ of this league, but this year had been a struggle.
Staring 0-2, he clawed his way back 3-2, then 5-6, and ultimately, as he entered Week 14, Chris was 7-6 and was in dire straits. Playing his buddy Mike Blaesser, Chris needed to win or his season was over. That simple.
Back in New York City, Jordan was feeling pretty good. Despite having Tee Higgins (what the hell was that by the way?), Jordan had gotten big games from Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. It looked so good that Grandpa Lenny had texted Jordan after the Tyreek Hill games Sunday night excitedly “This is over!”
And you could certainly understand why Lenny would feel that way. Entering Monday night, Jordan was winning 96.80 to 76.68 with two guys to play while Brandon just had one left.
Whereas in Toledo, things were looking bleaker for Chris. Up just 85.5 to 77.2 heading into Monday Night, Chris was in a squeaker with both him and his opponent Mike having one player left.
I already told you Jordan and Chris were both 28, both working in accounting, and both hardcore fantasy football players. What I didn’t tell is they also have at least one more thing in common.
They both had Kyler Murray as their starting QB.
And they both watched in horror as, on the third play from scrimmage, Kyler Murray went down with a bad non-contact knee injury that anyone watching, including Jordan and Chris, immediately knew was bad and game-ending, if not worse.
I know I speak for everyone when we say our dumb little fantasy football matchups pale in comparison to the seriousness of Kyler’s injury and we feel terrible for him, his family, friends, fans and the Arizona Cardinals organization. But the reality of it is that, in fantasy football, a lot of people were starting and counting on Kyler Murray in this game and now, everyone was faced with the fact he was no longer playing and would not return.
For Jordan, he got a little nervous. But if he was being honest, he was more worried about some of his other leagues, where Kyler is his QB in 3 of his 4 leagues. For this league, the family league, he went into the night up by 20 and was projected to win by 40 so his antenna was up, as it were, but not a full grown panic just yet.
Meanwhile, Chris was sweating bullets. Up by just eight points, Chris had only Kyler going on Monday night and now he was done. Talking about their matchup, his buddy and opponent Mike texted him, laughing. “I love this game!”
Chris was so disgusted he told me “I turned off the TV. I couldn’t watch. I knew I was going to lose.”
Over in New York City, the reason Jordan wasn’t super nervous was because he not only had the big lead, he also had one other player going.
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
Yeah.
Projected to score 19.4 points, Stevenson would finish with just three points. And Brandon is now texting is brother Jordan. “I got a chance!”
A chance he most certainly had. Jordan now was officially worried, watching his 20 point lead start to evaporate as the player his brother had going?
The Patriots defense.
When DeAndre Hopkins fumbled and New England linebacker Raekwon McMillan scoops it up and goes the distance for a Patriots touchdown, Jordan realized it might not be his night.
However that exact play was exactly what Chris needed in his matchup. You see, he was facing Hunter Henry. And the way he figured it, the only way his narrow eight point lead survives is if New England gets something flukey like a defensive touchdown so the Pats offense is not on the field. A defensive score like that means Arizona gets the ball back and New England has a lead. So if/when they get the ball back, then hopefully the Pats go run heavy and don’t, in fact, throw it to Hunter Henry.
After that play, both guys had the same thought.
“This isn’t over.”
Jordan realized that despite having a 20-point lead and BOTH Kyler Murray and Rhamondre Stevenson going in a game against just a defense, he now had a legit chance to lose this game.
Chris realized despite losing Kyler three plays in and facing Hunter Henry in a great tight end match-up, he might actually survive. Unable to resist, Chris had been checking out the game on his phone and was now back engaged.
Both watch in horror then as Cardinals QB Colt McCoy continued to take sack after sack after sack. Racking up points for Brandon’s New England defense and also quickly forcing the ball back to the Patriots offense where Hunter Henry awaited.
Chris was hanging on by just a razor thin margin at this point and when Mac Jones threw a 39 yard long completion to Hunter Henry at the end of the third quarter made Chris’ heart sunk. That’s it, Chris thought. All she wrote.
Whereas Jordan couldn’t believe it. This quick score (Pierre Strong punched it in the next play) meant the Cardinals would get it back. With more chances for the Patriots defense. Jordan’s lead had narrowed to just three points or so with about 13 minutes to play.
The official game log tells the rest of the story.
3rd & 10 at ARI 24
(13:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) C.McCoy sacked at ARZ 14 for -10 yards (D.Ekuale).
Then, later, after the teams trade punts….
1st & 10 at NE 48
(6:49 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.McCoy sacked at ARZ 39 for -13 yards (M.Judon).
And, at the end of that same drive
4th & 13 at ARI 49
(5:33 - 4th) (Shotgun) C.McCoy sacked at ARZ 41 for -8 yards (J.Uche).
The Cardinals turns the ball over on downs after that and the Patriots are up 27-13. This game is over, right? Jordan is going to escape, right?
Nope. Arizona uses timeouts and forces another punt and now, the Cardinals get the ball back with under four to play.
And then, with 3:08 left to play….
3rd & 7 at ARI 38
(3:08 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) C.McCoy sacked at ARZ 32 for -6 yards (J.Uche).
And that would do it. Arizona would turn the ball over the next play and the Patriots would run and then take three kneel downs to run out the clock but the damage had been done.
Jordan entered the night up 96.80 to 78.68 with Kyler Murray AND Rhamondre Stevenson left to play against just the Patriots defense. Final score?
Yep. Jordan lost by .22. Less than three-tenths of a point. No first place, no $300, no first-round bye for his Grandpa Lenny. Insane. Unreal. Heartbreaking.
Hey, you never know.
And I heard stories like from everyone. Facing huge games from the Pats defense or even players like Nick Folk (11 points!) caused them to lose after they lost Murray, Stevenson, even DeVante Parker for some in deeper leagues.
Yes, the Kyler Murray injury especially was devastating. Not just for Murray and the Cardinals, of course, but for so many fantasy managers who were counting on the superstar to lead them to the playoffs. But while there was lots and lots of people who lost due to Kyler Murray‘s unfortunate injury, there was one person who specifically WON thanks to Murray.
CHRIS!
Yes, our guy in Toledo watched as Hunter Henry didn’t catch another pass after that 39-yarder and when the dust settled, he realized he had had actually WON! The difference for him between winning and losing? The 0.75 points he got… from Kyler Murray!
Yes, with just a 8.3 point lead, a QB that goes out after three plays and facing a tight end who is playing against the NFL team that allows the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends… Chris still managed to win by 0.55…a win that wouldn’t have been possible without the .75 points Kyler Murray got on his three plays. Chris moved to 8-6 and as we speak, is now preparing for the playoffs.
Amazing. Incredible. Unreal.
How many times do I gotta tell you.
Hey, you never know.
#FantasyLife, indeed.
I appreciate everyone who responded to my tweet and sent me their stories, both amazing and heartbreaking and thanks to Jordan and Chris, specifically, for talking to me and sharing their stories.
It’s a good rule for fantasy football and, frankly, life as well. Just because something is likely to happen… even very likely to happen, is no guarantee it will happen. Gotta play till the final whistle. Because you never know.
And with that, let’s get to it. A few reminders – you can sign up for my free fantasy football newsletter at www.FantasyLife.com. It’s a quick and easy five minute read that tells you everything you need to know for the day in fantasy football with some DFS and sports betting advice thrown in and it’s delivered to your in box every single morning. Try it and hey, if you hate it, just unsubscribe. It’s a free newsletter.
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Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski and good luck in the fantasy playoffs. Know that for the fantasy playoffs I tend to go more conservative and we are dealing with a smaller player pool. I’m not recommending super obscure guys in a playoff, you know? Ok. Here we go.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 15:
Justin Herbert vs. Tennessee
I try to keep my analysis relatable to the layperson and not get too far into complex data that can be difficult to process. So my apologies in advance here if I lose anyone, but I would like to say that apparently having Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field is good for Justin Herbert‘s production. Still with me? Great! Get this: over Herbert’s last four games — coinciding with Allen’s return to action, by the way — he is averaging 21.5 PPG and 43.8 pass attempts per game. Over the same four-week span, the Tennessee Titans are the complete opposite (i.e. brutally awful), allowing the second-most passing yards per game (308). Tennessee has also allowed the second-most passing touchdowns on the season, including three TD passes in back-to-back games, and the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Herbert is an easy top-4 quarterback for me in Week 15.
Dak Prescott at Jacksonville
The debate shows are spending this week yelling about whether Dak Prescott has what it takes to lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl. I’ll leave that argument to them. What I can say is that in a parallel universe where Dak gets to play the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Super Bowl, I’m very confident he’d perform at a high level. (Not sure why I was never a regular on “First Take.”) Since Week 9, Jacksonville is allowing the third-most passing yards per game (279.2). They have also given up 2+ touchdown passes in four of their five games over that stretch. In fact, the last five quarterbacks to face the Jaguars have all scored at least 17.5 fantasy points. In a game with the fourth-highest total on the slate (47.5 on BetMGM as of this writing) Dak will make it 6-for-6 this week. He’s my QB 7.
Mike White vs. Detroit
Jets head coach Robert Saleh confirmed this week that Mike White is his quarterback for the rest of the season as long as he’s healthy. And that is Saleh’s choice. But as a fantasy manager, I only make commitments to players week-to-week. That’s just the lifestyle I’ve chosen, okay? I’m not ready to settle down. I’m only … 29. Yeah … 29 is my age. That said, I do like White a lot in Week 15 against the Lions. Over the past four weeks, Detroit is allowing the third-most passing yards per game and they’ve given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. Considering White is averaging 43 pass attempts and 317 passing yards in his three starts, I see no reason he won’t continue to put up numbers against Detroit. He’s the most obvious Kyler Murray replacement this week if he’s still available in your league and I would trust him in a playoff game. I have him inside my Top 12 quarterbacks.
Others receiving votes: I understand. I do. This is make-or-break time in fantasy. Deciding whether to play Brock Purdy in Week 15 really has managers between a Brock and hard place. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that the 49ers rookie has a Purdy good matchup in Week 15. And that’s actually true, I’m not just writing about Brock Purdy here for the forced name puns. (Okay, I kind of am.) But since Week 10, Seattle is allowing 410 offensive yards per game (fourth most). Meanwhile, Purdy has gone for 18.0 PPG over the past two weeks, with multiple touchdown passes in each game. … ESPN was probably ecstatic about getting Rams-Packers on Monday Night Football when the NFL schedule came out. Ah, well. Who knew Jets-Lions would be the game drawing the eyes of the world? But you can still get at least mildly excited about playing Aaron Rodgers in a primetime game, at Lambeau, off a bye and with two weeks to prepare for a Rams defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt. LAR is also tied for the fourth-most touchdown passes allowed over that stretch. … No one is pumped about starting Matt Ryan. The Indianapolis Colts included. But Ryan is playing the Minnesota Vikings defense this week. Since Week 10, Minnesota is allowing a league-high 335 passing yards per game, including 300+ passing yards in five straight games. If you are really desperate, you could likely do worse….
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 15:
Jared Goff at New York Jets
The Lions came for their critics after their impressive win over the Vikings last week. “It feels good. It makes me feel like we’re making a lot of people eat what they said, mostly,” Jared Goff said. “We know who we are and we know what we can do.” I love that feistiness. But I Hate Goff’s Week 15 matchup. The Jets allow the third-fewest yards per pass attempt on the season and are tied for the second-fewest passing touchdowns allowed, as well. Goff also struggles mightily against pressure (27th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating when pressured) and on the road (8.5 PPG away from Ford Field this season). Meanwhile, the Jets are Top 10 in pressure rate this season and this game is at MetLife Stadium and will be played in near-freezing temperatures. If I have to eat my words, so be it. I’ll eat anything with some buffalo sauce and ranch dressing. I don’t mind. But I think my diet shall remain wordless this week. Goff was on last week’s “Love” list and was a Week 14 hero. But this week he’s my QB 19 and honestly, I’m worried I might be too high on him.
Derek Carr vs. New England
Remember when the offseason additions of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson were going to transform the AFC West into the greatest division in football history? The lesson, of course, is to never try. (Please contact my representatives if you would like to book me to share this inspiring message at commencement addresses this spring.) Here’s another tip: never expect a quarterback to do much against the New England Patriots in fantasy. Since Week 10, New England is allowing less than 200 passing yards per game. And on the season, only three quarterbacks have scored 17+ against Bill Belichick‘s crew and two of them had a rushing score. Running isn’t exactly Derek Carr‘s forte and, unfortunately, passing isn’t much lately either. Carr has less than 30 pass attempts in back-to-back games as they have gone Josh Jacobs crazy in Vegas. I have him outside my top 20 in Week 15.
Running Backs I Love in Week 15:
James Conner at Denver
In the song “Twelve Days of Christmas,” a full one-half of the gifts referenced are birds. Insane! A partridge, turtle doves, French hens, calling birds, geese-a-laying and swans-a-swimming. Who wants that many birds? And if you’re giving away birds for the holidays, how is Cardinals running back James Conner not in the mix? Right? Isn’t that the question everyone is asking? Because he’s at his best at this time of year. Last season, Conner scored 10 touchdowns from the start of November through the end of the season. In 2022 he already has five over the same period, including a score in each of his last four. Since returning from injury in Week 9, Conner is RB6 in PPG (18.6) and he’s earned 95% or more of the snaps in three of his past four games. He also has three or more receptions in seven of his eight healthy games this season. Plus, with Colt McCoy under center now, expect Arizona to go run heavy not to mention McCoy loves to dump off to the running back. So expect his usage to produce against a Denver defense that has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in three of their past four games. I have Conner as my RB 8. He’s a Cardinal you should be ... a-playing.
Miles Sanders at Chicago
The Eagles are a nine-point favorite in this one and, in games Philadelphia wins by 7+ points this season, Miles Sanders is averaging 17.9 PPG and 90 rushing yards. Now, normally games-X-team-wins-by-seven-plus-points doesn’t provide a large sample size. But the Eagles are straight up killing most teams this season. They actually have NINE games like that so far. So I will not hear your sample size complaints, thank you very much. Sanders also has 10 touchdowns in those nine games, while Chicago has surrendered at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season. The Bears have also allowed 110+ rushing yards to running backs in three straight. Give me Eagles -9 and Miles Sanders inside the Top 12 running backs for Week 15.
Isiah Pacheco at Houston
Since Isiah Pacheco took over the Chiefs #10 jersey from Tyreek Hill, I developed a working theory that every Chiefs player who wears #10 becomes fantasy gold. But then I did a little more digging and discovered that before Hill, the #10 belonged to Chase Daniel. Hey, it was just a theory. What is not a theory, and is instead very much fact, is that Pacheco now has five straight games with at least 15 touches and 80 scrimmage yards. He’s been playing very well and running hard. But let’s be honest: Ferdie Pacheco could probably put up some numbers on this Texans defense. The Texans have allowed 125+ rushing yards in 11 of their 13 games this season, and they have also surrendered the most rushing touchdowns to backs on the season. Give me (Isiah) Pacheco as a Top 15 back this week.
Others receiving votes: The New York Giants have given up 160+ rushing yards in four straight and must now face Brian Robinson on a run of at least 20 touches and 85 scrimmage yards in three of his past four games. Robinson is also being used more in the passing game. In his first seven games he had four total receptions, but now has multiple receptions in two straight. … Yes, the Lions run defense has been better recently but I am still in on Zonovan “Bam” Knight as a top-20 play this week in a cold weather game. Knight now has at least 17 touches in three straight games and over 100 yards from scrimmage in two of the last three. If you saw the 44-yard run J.K. Dobbins had last week against Pittsburgh, you could tell he’s not yet 100%. But whatever percentage he’s currently operating at is still pretty effective. Dobbins saw 58% of snaps in that game and more than half of his carries gained five-plus yards. This week he faces a Cleveland defense that is allowing 5.2 YPC to running backs this season and has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns to the position (tied for second-most). … The Panthers have enough confidence in Sam Darnold to start him, but not quite enough to let him throw the ball with any frequency. Carolina has 45+ rushing attempts in three of their past four games and Chuba Hubbard has back-to-back games with 17 touches. He also has 65+ scrimmage yards in three of five games since Christian McCaffrey was traded and is a reasonable flex option in 12-team or deeper PPR leagues.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 15:
Nick Chubb vs. Baltimore
It’s hard to believe Nick Chubb is struggling because he’s been such a consistent performer over his career, but Chubb now has less than 10 fantasy points in three of his past four games. But I guess it’s not really that surprising because when it starts to get cold you expect a Chubb to shrink, do you not? (Sorry, not sorry.) But regardless of temperature, I’m not expecting big things from Chubb this week against a Ravens defense that, since Week 8, is allowing a league-low 43.7 rushing yards per game to running backs. Over the same stretch, they’ve held backs to 2.65 YPC — also best in the league. I have Chubb outside my Top 15 running backs in Week 15.
Jamaal Williams at New York Jets
Jamaal Williams now has six straight games with zero receptions and less than four yards per carry. Over the same span, the Lions have gone 5-1 and pulled into playoff contention. My guess is that Detroit fans would choose winning over having a Top 20 fantasy running back. THE FOOLS! And while Williams is still cracking the end zone with some regularity, even that isn’t doing much for his fantasy numbers. Get this: in three of his past four games with a touchdown, he has scored less than 12 fantasy points. Considering the dip in production, and the fact that the Jets have not allowed a rushing touchdown to a back in five of their last six games and that (so far!) D’Andre Swift is not on the injury report this week (meaning he is likely to see more touches than norman) I’m keeping Williams outside my top 30...
Devin Singletary vs. Miami
Devin Singletary‘s touches have decreased in four straight games. At this rate, he will soon have to change his name to … wait for it … Devin Singlecarry. Okay, it probably wasn’t worth waiting for that. Let’s move on. Singetary has less than 55 total yards in four of his past six games and — probably even worse — back-to-back games with less than 50% of snaps. He’s in a full-on timeshare with James Cook now. This week the Bills get a Miami team that, since Week 10, is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game to backs. A decreasing workload + a solid run defense = Singletary being outside my Top 30 backs for Week 15.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 15:
Garrett Wilson vs. Detroit
In Mike White‘s three starts, Garrett Wilson is averaging 21.5 PPG and 10 targets. New York hasn’t seen a combo this surprisingly good together since 2015 when that subway rat found a full slice of pizza. The good times should keep rolling this week when Wilson faces a Detroit defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers on the season. Since Week 10, the Lions have also allowed the second-most yards per game to wide receivers. Like Subway Rat ascending the stairs, I have moved Wilson all the way up to WR 12 this week.
Mike Williams vs. Tennessee
I am currently pitching a Forrest Gump sequel in which Forrest tells his son that “life is like Chargers receiver Mike Williams, you never know which one you’re gonna get.” Beyond that I have no script or plot. And Tom Hanks won’t call me back with word on greenlighting the project. It’s very frustrating! Just like Mike Williams in fantasy. In his first game back in the lineup last week since before Thanksgiving, Williams put up a 6-116-1 line despite playing only 65% of snaps. In his nine games played on the season, he now has four with at least 113 yards … and four with 17 or less. AAAAAAAHHHHHHHH! But I think this week we see good Mike Williams. Not because he’s suddenly found consistency, but because the Titans pass defense is consistently atrocious. The Titans have surrendered a touchdown to a wide receiver in six straight games and, on the season, Tennessee has allowed the most fantasy points on the season to wide receivers. This week I have Williams as a Top 16 wide receiver this week.
Brandon Aiyuk at Seattle
With Deebo Samuel out, 24% of San Francisco’s targets are now open. And in Brandon Aiyuk‘s eight games with 6+ targets this season, he is averaging 15.2 PPG. He also has at least one red zone target in six of his past eight games. This week Aiyuk gets a Seattle defense that since Week 10 is allowing the third-highest catch rate to wide receivers. The Seahawks have also allowed a wide receiver touchdown in four of their past five games. So, yes, late in the season with fantasy seasons on the line, the QB-WR combos of Mike White and Garrett Wilson, and Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk, are among the best in the league. Just as we all predicted. Hey, you never know. Aiyuk is my WR 23 for Week 15.
Dalton Schultz at Jacksonville
The Jaguars have allowed 100-plus yards to tight ends in three of their past four games, and a touchdown to a tight end in three of their past four, as well. That’s so TE-friendly that I hope the Jaguars are awarded an honorary doctorate at Tight End University this off-season. This week’s benefactor of Jacksonville’s largesse is Dalton Schultz, who has a 20% target share since Dak Prescott returned from injury. I have Schultz inside my Top 5 tight ends.
Others receiving votes: Jacksonville wide receiver Zay Jones has 10+ targets in three of his past four games and three end zone targets over his last two. On Sunday he faces a Dallas team that has allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver in five of their past six games. … Since Week 10, Packers rookie Christian Watson has a 24% target share and 48% of those targets have come on deep balls. That sets up very well against a Rams defense that, since Week 10, is allowing the third-highest catch rate on deep passes. Worth noting that I play against both Zay Jones and Christian Watson in the second week of a dynasty league playoff game where Kyler Murray is my main QB and last week the guy I’m facing started Evan Engram and Brock Purdy against me so I assure you, Zay Jones and Christian Watson are GOING OFF THIS WEEK… Need a play in deeper leagues? How about Nico Collins and/or Chris Moore of the Texans against Kansas City? Collins has double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four games, including 7-plus targets in every game over that stretch, while last week Moore hit career highs in targets, catches and yards. Houston is likely to be trailing against the Chiefs – bold prediction, I know – so they’re likely to throw a bunch, and the Chiefs have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this season. … Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich has back-to-back games with eight targets and -- strange as it is to write -- if Russell Wilson can’t go, I’m not sure that hurts. Especially not against an Arizona team that is dead-last on the season against tight ends in catches, yards and touchdowns allowed. …Ready to get Chiggy with it? Sorry, not sorry. It’s week 15. You get what you get. Which is a good slogan for the tight end position. Chigoziem Okonkwo of the Titans now has three games in a row with 5+ targets and back-to-back games with 10+ fantasy points. He also has a reception of at least 30 yards in four of his past six games. Okonkwo is a nice TE streaming option against a Chargers defense that allows the most yards per reception to tight ends on the season.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 15
Mike Evans vs. Cincinnati
Over the past couple months, Mike Evans’ production has tanked almost as much as everybody’s FTX portfolio. Since Week 9, Evans is just WR59 in PPG and has five straight games with less than 60 receiving yards. It likely won’t get better this week against a Bengals team that allows the third-lowest catch rate to wide receivers and the second-fewest touchdowns to the position. And even if the Bengals were letting receivers run free through the secondary, it might not matter much. Get this: over his past four games, Evans has just a single target in the end zone. Avoid Evans this week like Sam Bankman-Fried should have avoided the Bahamas. Evans is outside my Top 20 at the position.
Adam Thielen vs. Indianapolis
While Adam Thielen‘s Vikings are getting lit up through the air, the Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Indianapolis gives up a league-low 118 yards per game to the position and have not allowed more than 60 yards to multiple wide receivers in the same game all season. And it’s not like Thielen is entering this game riding high. In three of his past five games he has less than 10 yards per reception. Thielen mad the Love list last week and paid off, but this week I’m out on him. I have Thielen down at WR 32 for Week 15.
Tyler Higbee at Green Bay
In the three games since Matthew Stafford went down, Tyler Higbee has just eight total targets and less than 15 receiving yards in all three. Yes, even last week in the game played by Baker “Way Better Than Montana, Brady and Mahomes Combined” Mayfield. Higbee also has just a single end zone target since Week 4, and now he gets a Green Bay defense that has allowed the second-fewest receptions and yards to tight ends this season. He’s outside my Top 15 tight ends for Week 15.
