C.J.

Stroud

Houston GM Nick Caserio recently said the team would not negotiate a new deal with Stroud once the regular season begins, putting a hard and fast deadline on Stroud’s ability to secure a longer-term contract with the team that drafted him. His immense and nationally-televised struggles down the stretch last season — including his playoff meltdown against the Patriots — could factor into the team’s decision to go all in on him as a long-term franchise quarterback. Fowler said Stroud “can let an exploding quarterback market do the work for him if he waits an additional six to eight months” and explore free agency in 2027. Stroud over the past three seasons ranks 22nd out of 40 qualifying QBs in adjusted EPA per drop back, alongside Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence. He ranks 24th in drop back success rate, just behind Mac Jones.

There’s really no reason for Stroud to want to negotiate off last year’s end-of-season performance, so we’re not stunned that there’s been no extension. It does sound like the Texans are at least laying the groundwork for next offseason. The general NFL expectation has been that Stroud will go into the year without an extension. The Houston Chronicle’s Jonathan Alexander reported that league sources believe the Texans and Stroud’s camp “are not far off on what they think Stroud’s contract terms should look like and how much he should be paid per year.”

Stroud is currently eligible for a contract extension, and Breer believes Stroud is conducting himself “with a seriousness that underlies the big year he has in front of him.” Citing good health and a growing relationship with OC Nick Caley, Breer adds that Stroud has also taken “more command of the offense” this summer. The Texans might not need Stroud to be a prolific passer every week, given their elite defense, but it sounds like Stroud is taking the necessary steps to deliver more reliable results when called upon. Hopefully, he indeed rises to the occasion when the regular season arrives.

The Texans exercised Stroud’s fifth-year option earlier this offseason, making him extension-eligible with two seasons left on his contract. Caserio said there is a “possibility” an extension is reached before the season starts, but nothing is set in stone yet. Getting a deal done soon appears to be a priority for the Texans and contract talks at least sound positive between management and Stroud’s agent, David Mulugheta. For now, there have been “productive conversations” between the two sides.

Caley adds that Stroud “looks good” and is “locked in.” These comments were made in relation to Stroud’s offseason work with his new QB coach, Jerry Schuplinski, who also happens to be Caley’s mentor. Former Texans QB coach Jerrod Johnson left the organization this offseason after learning that the staff planned to reduce his role. Per Caley, Stroud and Schuplinski are working well together, and Schuplinski is focusing on getting Stroud back to his rookie season form. This report doesn’t give us a ton to go on, but the fact that the offensive coordinator is pleased with his quarterback’s offseason development is at least positive. For now, continue treating him as a starter in superflex leagues.

Stroud, according to DJ Bien-Aime, cut out all sugar and consumed nothing but “water and lean food.” This has led to some offseason weight loss as Stroud angles for a new contract with the Texans. “Expect a slimmer Stroud,” Bien-Aime said. Houston might exercise Stroud’s fifth-year option before committing to him long term after his ugly end to the 2025 season. Stroud had a solid 2025 season overall, finishing 12th in EPA per drop back — just behind Jared Goff — and 20th in QB accuracy, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Stroud will likely be a distributor in a run-first Houston offense this season and a nice option in superflex leagues.

Less than a month ago, McNair went on record at the annual league meetings saying the Texans are “totally behind” Stroud. Now, McNair has doubled down on those comments, hoping to cast aside any speculation that the team has doubts about Stroud being the quarterback best suited to lead the Texans for the foreseeable future. The Texans have exercised the fifth-year option on Stroud, keeping him under contract through 2027, and are expected to offer him an extension sometime next year. Stroud has struggled to regain his rookie form after throwing for 4,108-23-5 in 2023, but has led them to a 28-18 record and a postseason berth in each of his three seasons. Hopefully, with more offensive weapons around him next season and an improved running game, the Texans can relieve some pressure from Stroud as he enters his fourth season.

Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, had his fifth-year option picked up by the Texans. He will get $25.904 million in 2027 and is now extension-eligible. The 24-year-old got off to a fast start as a rookie, but stumbled the past two seasons. Last seen on a football field throwing four interceptions in the Divisional Round, Stroud still needs to sustain success beyond putting up fine numbers in the regular season. The Texans don’t have to commit to him long-term just yet, but they make the decision to give Stroud close to $26 million to start in 2027.

He adds that the Texans will engage in talks with Stroud’s representation “at some point” about a long-term contract, the expectation is that any potential long-term extension wouldn’t get done this offseason. It’s sensible for the Texans to not get out ahead of the Stroud talks after last year’s playoff flatlining. It’s also sensible for the Texans to look at all 52 games that he’s played, rather than just his last two, when thinking about what they expect from him going forward. The Texans will try to build up around Stroud ahead of the last two years of his rookie contract to see what they can get out of him, and Alexander believes an improved running game should also take some of the pressure off of him.

“He’s not going anywhere,” Caserio added. Well, that settles that. Caserio shut down loose talk of the Texans parting with their franchise quarterback after Stroud’s nationally televised Divisional Round meltdown against the Patriots in which he threw for 212 yards, one score, and four interceptions. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said in late January that he would not talk about a contract extension for Stroud “right now,” fueling social media speculation that the team was not fully committed to Stroud as their long-term starter. Stroud’s sometimes massive struggles over the past two seasons likely means he won’t get a top-tier extension, though it would be a shock if the Texans parted ways with him. Since the start of the 2024 regular season Stroud ranks 23rd out of 34 qualifying QBs in EPA per drop back.