Next Sunday night’s game between the Lions and Vikings may be the most consequential game on the Week 18 schedule, but it is far from the only one that will impact the playoff picture.
Saturday’s games will determine who wins the AFC North as well as whether the Bengals will have any chance of advancing to the postseason. If they beat the Steelers, they will be alive on Sunday and the Ravens will be the division champions. The Ravens will also take the crown by beating the Browns while a Steelers win and a Ravens loss will make Pittsburgh the AFC North champions.
The winner of the AFC North will be the third seed in the AFC. The Chiefs are No. 1, the Bills are No. 2 and the Texans are No. 4.
If the Bengals win, they’ll need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs and the Dolphins to lose to the Jets in order to advance. A Broncos win makes them a wild card team while the Dolphins get the spot with a win and a Denver loss.
Atlanta’s loss on Sunday night means the Bucs will win the NFC South by beating the Saints. The Falcons will get the title with a win and a Bucs loss while losses by both teams will mean Tampa advances.
The Lions and Vikings will close out the regular season in Detroit on Sunday night. Both teams are in the playoffs, but the winner will be the NFC North champs and the No. 1 seed in the NFC while the loser will be on the road in the first round as the fifth seed.
Elsewhere in the NFC, the Eagles are guaranteed the No. 2 seed, but either the Rams or the NFC South champ could wind up as the No. 3 seed. The Packers and Commanders will also sort out who finishes sixth and seventh, so there are plenty of meaningful games to be played in Week 18.
After playing three games in 11 days, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play zero in 25.
It’s very likely, we’re told, that the Chiefs will rest key starters in a Week 18 game at Denver. Others have reported that the Chiefs are “expected” to sit Mahomes and others.
Look for an official announcement to come early in the week from coach Andy Reid.
It’s very good news for the Broncos, who need to win next Sunday to make it to the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl 50. It’s very bad news for the Bengals, Colts, and Dolphins, whose postseason hopes hinge on Denver losing again.
It ultimately could end up being bad news for the Chiefs, if the Broncos make it as the No. 7 seed, upset the Bills, and roll into Arrowhead Stadium with momentum against a Chiefs team that might be caught flatfooted after having nearly a month off.
Earlier this year, the Broncos were a field goal away from beating the Chiefs at home. The kick was blocked, sealing the Kansas City win.
The Chiefs have a dilemma.
They can try to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs next weekend with a win in Denver, or they can do what they typically do when the last game of the regular season means nothing to their playoff fortunes — rest the starting quarterback and other key starters.
That’s how Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes made his debut, seven years ago. The Week 17 Chiefs-Broncos game meant nothing, so Alex Smith sat and Mahomes played.
Generally speaking, no team should want to see a division rival rolling into town for a one-game, winner-take-all playoff showdown. Division rivals know their opponents well. They don’t get as intimidated as other teams might. And they’d love nothing more than to derail a special season.
The Broncos need simply to win on Sunday to get in. A loss to the Chiefs likely means Denver’s streak of no playoff appearances since winning Super Bowl 50 will extend to nine.
There’s another reason for the Chiefs to consider playing Mahomes and other key starters, if only for a quarter. With the bye secured and the extra rest from playing on Wednesday, it’ll be 25 days between games for Mahomes, Travis Kelce, etc.
What if the Broncos win on Sunday, upend the Bills in the wild-card round (which isn’t a crazy proposition) and then roll into Arrowhead in the divisional round, having played three high-stakes games since the last time Mahomes played?
Once before, the Chiefs rested Mahomes in the last game of the regular season while holding a first-round bye. And when Kansas City hosted Cleveland in the divisional round, the game was closer than expected. Would it have been without three weeks off between games for Mahomes and others?
There’s one last point. Knocking the Broncos out could open the door for the Bengals. And the Bengals have gone toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the postseason, beating them in the 2021 AFC Championship and almost beating them in the 2022 AFC Championship.
But there’s no guarantee that the Bengals get in with a Broncos loss. They still need the Colts or Dolphins to lose at least once, and the Colts close with the Giants and Jaguars. Thus, it’s possible that both the Broncos and Bengals could be knocked out.
Which would be good for the Chiefs. And for everyone else in the 2024 playoff field.
After the Broncos scored a touchdown with eight seconds left in Saturday’s game against the Bengals, quarterback Bo Nix could be seen holding up two fingers in reference to trying a two-point conversion to win the game.
Head coach Sean Payton went the other way, however. The Broncos kicked an extra point to tie the game 24-24 and go to overtime, which turned out to be a good turn for the Bengals as they were able to score a touchdown and keep their playoff hopes alive in the extra session.
The Broncos would have clinched a playoff spot with a win or a tie and Payton said after the game that “it probably would’ve been a little easier decision” to go for two if the “tie element” wasn’t part of the picture. Payton said he thought it was the correct decision and “in the end, we didn’t make enough plays and they did.”
“We discussed it all,” Payton said in his postgame press conference. “Plenty of time, plenty of time, plenty of time and the decision we made is the right one. . . . A lot of it is your gut relative to how the toss goes. We were moving a little bit on offense, and then weighing the percentages of the two-point conversion. I think that had a lot do with it.”
Nix said he was going off “straight emotion” in signaling to go for two, but that’s “not always the wisest decision” and that he thought the choice to go to overtime was the right one as well.
That might be the case, but the Broncos have now gone from having three games to win one to needing a win in Week 18 to assure themselves of a playoff berth. Facing a Chiefs team with nothing on the line could work to their advantage, but the margin for error is now gone for Denver.
The Bengals did what they had to do today, though it was far more dramatic than they had hoped. Now, they’ll need another win and help to continue their season beyond next week.
Cincinnati kept Denver from clinching the final AFC playoff berth with a 30-24 overtime win on Saturday. The Bengals improved to 8-8, with the Broncos falling to 9-7.
Denver still can clinch next week with a win over the Chiefs, who have clinched the AFC West title and the No. 1 conference seed.
But the Bengals controlled what they can control despite a 33-yard missed field goal by Cade York with 2:43 left in overtime. They got the ball back when the Broncos, who would have clinched the playoff spot with a tie, punted after a three-and-out.
Tee Higgins caught a 31-yard pass from Joe Burrow to the 3-yard line with 1:10 left in overtime. Replay let the play stand with Higgins’ left toe down on the catch before his right foot landed in bounds as his momentum carried him out of bounds. Higgins then caught the 3-yard touchdown pass from Burrow to end it.
Higgins caught 11 passes for 131 yards and three touchdowns.
The Bengals thought they had the win at the end of regulation when Burrow scored on a 1-yard quarterback push play with 1:29 remaining. The Bengals got unlucky when Chase Brown was hurt while sliding down at the 1, so the Broncos got their final timeout back, and then Burrow scored. Without Brown’s injury, the Bengals could have burned most of the time.
Bo Nix then lead the Broncos on a seven-play, 70-yard drive with Marvin Mims catching a 25-yard touchdown pass high-pointing the ball between defenders Geno Stone and Mike Hilton with eight seconds left. It was close, with the ball moving as Mims was hitting the ground and then going out of bounds, but replay let the play stand.
The Broncos were going for two and the win before the replay, but opted to kick the extra point for the tie and overtime.
The Bengals won the overtime coin toss but gained only 12 yards on five plays and punted for the first time all game. The Broncos, who started at their own 10, went three-and-out to give the ball back to the Bengals at their own 46. Cincinnati then drove to the Denver 15 where York banked the chip-shot field goal off the left upright.
The next time the Bengals got the ball back, they left it to Burrow and Higgins rather than York.
The Bengals never punted in regulation, and they should have won earlier and by more. They had three touchdown drives, a field goal drive that ended at the Cincinnati 3, two drives that ended on downs deep in Denver territory and a drive that ended acxross midfield with a Higgins’ fumble that Pat Surtain forced and recovered. The Bengals also had a kneel down to send the game to overtime.
The Bengals led only 7-3 at halftime.
They outgained the Broncos 499 to 329, with only one punt. Burrow was 39-of-49 for 412 yards and three touchdowns. Ja’Marr Chase caught nine passes for 102 yards. Brown had 20 carries for 67 yards before leaving with his injury, and his replacement, Khalil Herbert, had a key 13-yard run in overtime.
Nix was 24-of-31 for 219 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, with Mims catching eight for 103 and two touchdowns. Courtland Sutton added five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown.
The Broncos had seven sacks of Burrow led by Zach Allen’s 3.5 and Jonathon Cooper’s 1.5.
Germaine Pratt had a key interception for the Bengals late in the fourth quarter.
