Can Coyotes keep playoff hopes alive without Raanta?
One of the saddest phrases in sports is "[Player X] would really have been something, if only they could stay healthy.”
Some argue that avoiding injuries counts as a “skill,” and it’s plausible that certain players may simply be better at staying healthy than others, but there are still instances when the injury gods feel awfully cruel.
We’re rapidly approaching that point with Arizona Coyotes goalie Antti Raanta.
Even with a challenging start to 2018-19 (just a .906 save percentage over 12 games), Raanta’s been fantastic for the Coyotes so far ... when he’s been able to actually play.
That caveat was frustrating last season, as Raanta missed crucial chunks of time - most painfully being unhealthy as the Coyotes went without a win in October 2017 - yet was essentially elite when he could play, generating a splendid .930 save percentage in 47 games.
Unfortunately for the Coyotes, it’s looking like 47 Raanta appearances would have been a gift compared to the likely reality. The team announced that the 29-year-old goalie is out “indefinitely,” while The Athletic’s Craig Morgan provided a more detailed (and more troubling) update: Raanta might miss the rest of this season.
John Chayka said G Antti Raanta had a procedure on his injury and the damage was more extensive than originally thought. Possible he could miss the rest of the season. Right now, listing him as out indefinitely.— Craig Morgan (@CraigSMorgan) December 10, 2018
It’s fair to wonder if this might become the story of Raanta’s career.
Again, the Finn fought nagging injuries last season, and this year’s been even worse. At 29, he’s not ancient, but Raanta isn’t exactly a spring chicken, either. (If you need a glum example of how quickly a goalie can start looking older-and-more-fragile, look at all of the injury headaches Carey Price has been dealing with at just 31.)
That said, Raanta’s limited starts pre-Arizona came from him being a backup, not necessarily from injuries. There’s the hope that, in hindsight, these past two years will look like speed bumps rather than Raanta’s promising career hitting a brick wall. If nothing else, Raanta is listed at just 6-0, so he’s not one of those prototypical towering goalies whose huge frames only increase odds of additional injuries.
Either way, Raanta’s lengthy absence deals an enormous blow to the Coyotes’ fledgling playoff hopes.
You could argue that they’d be in tough to land a spot in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs even with a keyed-in Raanta. As of this writing, Arizona’s record is 13-13-2 for 28 points in as many games, leaving them in 12th place in the West (five points behind Vegas for the final wild card spot, and seven behind Anaheim for the Pacific’s third seed).
Various projections aren’t totally dismissing the Coyotes’ chances of waging a comeback, but few give them much better than a 20-percent shot to pull that off ... and those odds likely only drop once you factor in Raanta’s absence.
The Coyotes haven’t just been without Raanta, who’s been sidelined since Nov. 27. Backup goalie Darcy Kuemper has been hurt, too, making way for Adin Hill and waiver claim Calvin Pickard. To Hill’s credit, he began with a four-game winning streak and currently boasts a .939 save percentage, but his larger history indicates that he probably won’t be able to produce such results over the long haul.
All of this leaves Coyotes GM John Chayka in a tough spot.
If you’re the Coyotes, do you try to trade for a more seasoned goalie, particularly one on an expiring contract?
Or, do you do the uncomfortable and all-too-familiar, and punt on the season?
This Coyotes team is structured largely to compete, with an increasing number of longer-term contracts crowding the team’s salary cap.
Granted, the Coyotes have an interesting player or two. Would someone pay up some futures to land, say, Alex Galchenyuk? The 24-year-old’s endured a quiet first season with Arizona (just 11 points in 21 games), but there’s plenty of talent there. While Galchenyuk isn’t on an easy-to-move expiring contract, his deal doesn’t last much longer, as his affordable $4.9 million cap hit runs out after 2019-20. If you’re a contender, would you hand the Coyotes some futures to add some skill for Galchenyuk, particularly if the Coyotes absorbed a contract you wanted to get rid of (and/or retained some of Galchenyuk’s salary?).
It’s not pleasant to discuss who the Coyotes might sell off in a trade, and it’s even more unpleasant to wonder if Raanta will be injury-prone for the remainder of his career, but Arizona at least needs to ponder these scenarios. They might not have much of a choice, even if Raanta technically finds a way to play a bit toward the end of this season.