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What do the odds tell us about USMNT group expectations at World Cup?

MzBeXDeOGEny
Joe Prince-Wright, Andy Edwards and Nicholas Mendola debate who Gregg Berhalter should put in his starting XI ahead of the USMNT's World Cup opener against Wales.

Should the USMNT make it out of World Cup Group B?

That depends on who you ask.

[ MORE: 2022 World Cup schedule, how to watch, start time, dates ]

Some United States men’s national team diehards will tell you that the only question is whether they get a win off England.

Gregg Berhalter’s doubters will say the best team’s not there and the Yanks may not get a result from Wales, Iran, or the Three Lions.

The truth is probably somewhere in between, as the USMNT’s longshot +15000 odds to win the tournament lag behind England (+800) but are better than those of Wales (+25000) and Iran (+50000).

Our partner PointsBet has the Yanks as -105 to qualify from Group B and +450 to win the group. And it’s considered more likely the USMNT gets into the quarterfinals (+400) as top England for the group.

Let’s take a look at the USMNT’s three matches of the group stage, and what they might tell us about the USA’s World Cup fortunes.

Check out the 2022 World Cup winners betting odds and a number of USMNT odds in this link provided by our partner, PointsBet.


USMNT vs Wales odds

2pm ET, Monday

USMNT (+150) vs Wales (+210) | Draw (+200)

The USMNT will publicly label itself as underdogs but that better not be the message inside camp. The U.S. and Wales on a neutral field is considered a close one by PointsBet, with only six other group stage match-ups deemed closer


  • Poland vs Mexico
  • Australia vs Tunisia
  • Spain vs Germany
  • South Korea vs Ghana
  • Ecuador vs Senegal
  • Serbia vs Switzerland

USMNT vs England odds

2pm ET, Friday

USMNT (+475) vs England (-175) | Draw (+260)

The one group match that sees the USMNT as underdogs sees them as significant underdogs, but how big of a longshot are the Yanks to beat the Three Lions?

The USMNT’s (+475) payoff to beat England is equal or within +/- 25 of:


  • Japan’s +500 odds to beat Germany
  • Cameroon’s +450 odds to beat Switzerland
  • Ecuador’s +475 chance of taking down the Netherlands
  • Costa Rica’s +475 to win versus Japan
  • Morocco’s +500 to overcome Belgium

So, yes, a legit shock to the tournament’s system, though nowhere near the biggest longshots of the tournament, which are Costa Rica (+1800) to take down Spain, Saudi Arabia (+1500) to stun Argentina, Cameroon (+1200) to beat Brazil, and Costa Rica (+1200) to topple Germany.


USMNT vs Iran odds

2pm ET, Tuesday Nov. 29

USMNT (-105) vs Iran (+260) | Draw (+240)

The Yanks are significant favorites to win, though it’s not fait accompli by any means.

The 365-point spread between a USMNT and Iran win is a bit of a unicorn but closest to France’s favor against Denmark and Croatia’s spot above Morocco.

Follow @NicholasMendola