The Premier League carries on with Matchday 29. Due to FA Cup scheduling we only have four Premier League matches this weekend. But you all know the deal, we will be churning out bets and finding edges to make us some money!
So here is the Premier League Betting Power Rankings for Matchday 29:
- David Fofana Shot on Target & Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
- Aston Villa –0.25 1st Half Corner Spread (-125)
- Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
- Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)
Burnley vs Brentford (Saturday, 11:00 am ET)
Bet 1: David Fofana Shot on Target & Over 1.5 Goals (-110)
Bet 2: Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)
David Datro Fofana. The Ivorian forward joined Burnley and instantly gave their football club a new spark. I am targeting him in a different way this week.
Burnley on attack look to Fofana to be their outlet and focal finisher. Betting him just to have a shot on target is just a little too juicy for my liking. So, I parlayed Fofana Shot on Target & Over 1.5 Goals (-110).
Brentford don’t mind absorbing pressure and countering and allowing Burnley to play on the front foot at Turf Moor. I like the full game over but played it a bit safer. Over 1.5 goals has hit in 93% of Burnley’s matches and 86% of Brentford’s.
I’m not entirely sure I like either of these teams to win. Burnley have won just one home match with 11 defeats. Brentford on the other hand have won just three away matches with 10 defeats.
This should feature an open match with ample scoring opportunities for both sides. With Burnley conceding 2.43 goals per home match, there is massive value on Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100).
Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 11:00 am ET)
Bet 1: Luton Town Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+125)
Bet 2: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-115)
If you had the opportunity to watch Bournemouth vs Luton, you witnessed one of the more fun matches of the season. Luton started the match early and got up by three goals by halftime. Bournemouth clawed back and scored four in the second half to win the match.
One thing is for certain, Luton play with a sense of confidence regardless of their opponents. They also have a massive home-field advantage with Kenilworth Road being such a tight pitch.
I personally don’t rate Forest all that high. They concede a ton of possession, only earning 38% on the road while absorbing 14 shots per match. Backing Luton Town Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+125) for plus money against a team that is conceding two goals per contest on the road is a good idea.
If I like Luton Town’s team total, then I have to like Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-115). BTTS is hitting in 61% of Forest’s matches and 79% of Luton’s matches. The Hatters have only kept two clean sheets at home this season. Goals, goals, goals.
Fulham vs Tottenham (Saturday, 1:30 pm ET)
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-145)
Bet 2: Over 4.5 Bookings (-122)
Fulham at Craven Cottage are opposites than Fulham away from the Cottage. They have eight wins at home versus two on the road. They are scoring 1.86 goals per home contest versus 1.0 on the road. I love both teams to score in this match. However, playing that line alone is super juiced.
Tottenham kept a clean sheet on the road last week with the help of a red card to Aston Villa in the second half. However, that marks just their fourth road clean sheet of the season. Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (-145) is hitting in 69% of their road matches. Fulham and Tottenham both score, now it’s just a matter of who finds a second.
Both of these teams are fairly aggressive and commit a lot of fouls. Fulham matches are averaging 4.11 bookings per match and Tottenham at 5.52. Over 4.5 Bookings (-122) could be worth a sprinkle in this match.
West Ham vs Aston Villa (Sunday, 10:00 am ET)
Bet 1: Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
Bet 2: Aston Villa –0.25 1st Half Corner Spread (-125)
When I see West Ham playing football, I want to fade them any chance I get. Last week against Burnley, they were lucky to get away with a draw. Now they welcome in Aston Villa, coming off a loss, right after an important Europa League match where they are down 1-0 on aggregate.
David Moyes will likely field a strong 11 in that. It’s hard to imagine they won’t have tired legs with a three-day turnaround. The Villains have a quick turnaround for their match against Ajax as well, but they shouldn’t be chasing the game.
West Ham are poor defensively and Aston Villa should be able to score multiple goals on them this weekend. I LOVE Aston Villa Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115).
I don’t love double dipping in a match, but I’m a big fan of Aston Villa –0.25 1st Half Corner Spread (-125). The Villains are coming off a loss and will likely be on the front foot the entire first half. West Ham are only winning the first-half corner spread at a 28% clip. Should this result in a draw in the first half, then it’s a half-loss. However, I don’t see West Ham getting more than two corners in the first half.
